y 策略报告 报告日期：2024 年 4 月 8 日 A 股市场走势(2023/04/07-2024/04/03) 摘要（核心观点）： 美国 3 月部分数据超预期，降息仍是选项。3 月美国制造业 PMI 升至 50.3， 为 2022 年 10 月以来首次回到扩张区间，高于市场预期的 48.3。美国 3 月 非农就业人数增加 30.3 万人，同样高于预期值。两项超预期数据公布后， 市场关于美联储降息预期的时间延后和力度有所调整。不过 ISM 公布的 3 月非制造业 PMI 为 51.4，为连续两个月下行，低于市场预期，显示服务业 增长放缓。从历史数据来看，单纯制造业景气走强或难以支撑通胀"粘性"， 为支撑美国经济"软着陆"，降息仍将是选项。 华龙证券研究所 请认真阅读文后免责条款 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期风险；行业风险；汇率风险；数据风险；黑 天鹅事件等。 策略研究报告 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | ...

请认真阅读文后免责条款 数据来源：Wind，华龙证券研究所 | --- | |--------------------------------| | | | 北京 | | 地址：北京市东城区安定门外大街 | | 号天鸿宝景大厦 F1 层华龙证券 | | 邮编： 100033 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from traditional environmental protection services to new energy business, with a focus on dual-carbon initiatives. The expected net profit for 2023 is projected to be between 0.6 to 0.85 billion yuan, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [5][41]. - The company has established a comprehensive environmental protection industry chain and is actively expanding its distributed photovoltaic and user-side energy storage businesses, which are expected to become new growth drivers for its performance [41]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 713.35 - 2023E: 846.42 (growth rate: 18.65%) - 2024E: 1,135.16 (growth rate: 34.11%) - 2025E: 1,400.32 (growth rate: 23.36%) [2][10] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: -387.03 - 2023E: 80.19 (growth rate: 120.72%) - 2024E: 150.05 (growth rate: 87.12%) - 2025E: 181.57 (growth rate: 21.01%) [2][10] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2022A: -40.10% - 2023E: 7.67% - 2024E: 12.55% - 2025E: 13.18% [2][10] Business Performance - The company has seen a decline in traditional hazardous waste disposal and soil remediation services, but is now focusing on new energy projects such as waste incineration power generation and distributed photovoltaic systems, which are beginning to yield results [5][41]. - The solid waste treatment business relies on two waste incineration power plants, with a combined waste disposal capacity of 2,400 tons per day. The company achieved a revenue of 1.88 billion yuan from waste treatment in 2022 [8][41]. New Energy Initiatives - The company has been actively acquiring new projects in distributed photovoltaic and energy storage since 2023, with significant contracts signed in various regions including Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangdong [35][41]. - The average gross margin in the photovoltaic industry is around 60%, which is significantly higher than the company's overall gross margin of 25.1% in the first three quarters of 2023. This indicates potential for improved profitability as new energy assets come online [35][41].

证券研究报告 银行/非银金融 报告日期：2024 年4月 8日 2023 年报业绩逐步披露 券商分化 银行保险承压 ——金融行业周报 本周观点： 华龙证券研究所  上周（4月1日至4月3日）A 股市场整体维持震荡，沪深300 投资评级：推荐（维持） 指数上涨0.86%，全年上涨3.98%，非银金融指数上周小幅上涨 0.09%，非银金融指数全年下跌 3.39%，证券指数和保险指数上 最近一年走势 周分别上涨 0.08%和下跌 0.02%，全年分别下跌 4.9%与上涨 0.46%，银行指数上周上涨0.54%，全年上涨11.19%。  银行：上市银行净利率收入依然承压。2023 年全年已披露年报 的 21 家上市银行实现净利润同比增长 1.15%。银行目前面临支 持融资协调机制与实体经济相关压力，未来关注银行板块年报业 绩持续披露情况，以及政策与流动性层面对银行的支持力度。关 注标的：常熟银行(601128.SH)、浙商银行(601916.SH)。  券商:23 家上市券商披露 2023 年报，投资类业务改善。中证协 市场数据 2024 年4 月3日 披露证券行业2023年净利润1378亿，同比下降3%，行业 ...

证券研究报告 机械 报告日期：2024年04月 08日 上游景气业绩稳增，海外业务亮眼、结构持续优化 ——杰瑞股份（002353.SZ）2023 年报点评报告 华龙证券研究所 事件： 2024 年 4 月 2 日，公司发布 2023 年年报：2023 年，公司实现营 投资评级：买入（首次覆盖） 业收入 139.12亿元，同比增长 21.94%；实现归母净利润 24.54 亿元， 最近一年走势 同比增长9.33%。 观点：  上游高景气，油气工程板块带动收入高增，资产减值大幅减少。2023 年国际原油价格小幅下滑，但仍高位震荡，国际油气巨头资本开支 持续向上游业务倾斜，油气资产并购持续升温，上游景气度较高。 公司报告期内实现营收139.12亿元，同比增长 21.94%，实现归母 净利润 24.54 亿元，同增9.33%。收入增速显著高于归母净利润增 速，我们判断主要系 2021 年签订的科威特油气工程项目于年内完 成机械竣工、确认收入，带动油气板块收入同比大增104.81%，油 气工程板块毛利率 27.05%显著低于油气服务毛利率36.02%。报告 市场数据 期内，公司资产减值大幅下降，实现扣非归母净利润23 ...

周一市场全天震荡调整，三大指数均收跌，创业板指领跌。 2024-4-9 3、投顾观点 2024-4-9 联系电话：0931-4890003 偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 63 期，总第 1622 期（电子版） 2024 年 4 月 9 日 星期二 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | 沪深指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3047.05 | -0.72 | | 深证成指 | 9394.61 | -1.57 | | 中小 100 | 5786.35 | -1.3 | | 创业板指 | 1807.05 | -1.81 | | 沪深 300 | 3536.41 | -0.88 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 38892.8 | -0.03 | | 纳斯达克 | 16253.96 | 0.03 | | 标普 500 | 520 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry, emphasizing the resilience of leading companies due to their strong brand power and channel advantages [1][16]. Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a recovery in consumption, with leading companies showing strong performance. The report suggests focusing on industry leaders with predictable earnings in the short term, while maintaining a positive outlook for long-term investment value [1][16]. - The report highlights the impressive financial performance of Kweichow Moutai, which reported a total revenue of 150.56 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and a net profit of 74.73 billion yuan, up 19.2% year-on-year. The company plans to achieve a revenue growth of around 15% in 2024 and will distribute a record high cash dividend of approximately 38.79 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of recovery, with a focus on high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, which are expected to perform well due to their strong market positions [1][16]. - The report notes that the beer industry is also expected to recover, driven by the introduction of mid-to-high-end products and a decrease in barley costs [17]. Key Financial Metrics - Kweichow Moutai's total revenue for 2023 was 150.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 74.73 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [1][15]. - The report indicates that the company plans to invest 6.179 billion yuan in fixed assets in 2024, further solidifying its growth strategy [1][16]. Stock Performance - The report mentions the stock performance of various companies within the sector, with Kweichow Moutai's stock price at 1,715.11 yuan as of April 3, 2024, and a projected earnings per share (EPS) of 70.05 yuan for 2024 [18]. - Other notable stocks include Wuliangye at 154.60 yuan and Luzhou Laojiao at 192.57 yuan, with respective projected EPS of 8.83 yuan and 11.06 yuan for 2024 [18]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer income levels and confidence as key factors influencing the industry's performance. It suggests that the recovery of business scenarios will be crucial as the industry enters a seasonal slowdown [1][16]. - The report also highlights the ongoing trend of premiumization in the liquor market, with high-end products continuing to drive sales growth [1][16].

证券研究报告 计算机报告日期：2024年 4月8 日 基座与垂类大模型协同效应凸显，关注 AI 产业生态 ———计算机行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要：  近期，海内外大模型及AI应用持续迭代，AI应用更加聚焦效率提升， 投资评级：推荐（维持） 预期AI应用及多模态大模型将迎来密集催化。维持计算机行业“推荐” 评级。 最近一年走势  2024年4月3日，通义灵码正式上线通义千问APP，免费向全民开放， 能够支持用户在手机上写代码、读代码、学习编程技能。通义灵码是 一种 AI 编程工具，它熟练掌握 Java、Python、Go、JavaScript、 TypeScript、C/C++、C# 等 200 多种编程语言，可帮助程序员提升超 10%的开发效率。另外，通义灵码也在供阿里内部使用。我们认为当前 AI应用主要聚焦效率提升，在编程、内容制作等领域具有较强落地确 定性。  2024年4月1日，昆仑万维宣布将于4月17日正式发布天工大模型 相对沪深 300走势 2024/4/3（%） 3.0。据昆仑万维官方，天工3.0采用4千亿级参数MoE混合专家模型， 表现 1m 3m 12m 沪深300 0.8 5.4 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend with major indices closing lower, particularly the ChiNext Index which fell by 1.08% [4][14] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 917.9 billion, a decrease of 49.7 billion from the previous trading day [3] Stock Performance - Notable stocks that hit the daily limit include Zhongrun Resources, which rose by 10.11%, and Xiaocheng Technology, which surged by 20.04% [10][14] - The sectors that performed well included gold, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and coal, while sectors like Sora concept, flying cars, and multi-modal AI saw declines [15] Northbound Capital Flow - Northbound funds recorded a net sell of 2.275 billion, with the Shanghai Stock Connect seeing a net sell of 1.596 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Connect a net sell of 0.679 billion [6] Advanced Packaging Industry Insights - AMD is testing glass substrate samples from several major semiconductor substrate companies, planning to integrate this advanced substrate technology into semiconductor manufacturing by 2025-2026 [8][9] - The demand for high computing power is driving the evolution of packaging methods, with the market for advanced packaging technologies like 2.5D/3D and Chiplet expanding [9] - Glass substrates are expected to significantly improve electrical and mechanical performance compared to organic substrates, making them a key direction for future advanced packaging development [9]

证券研究报告 汽车行业 报告日期：2024年04月 03日 量价齐升拉动营收增长，新能源 出海转型成果可期 + ——长城汽车（601633.SH）年报点评 华龙证券研究所 事件： 3月29日，长城汽车发布2023年报：公司2023年实现营收1732.1 投资评级：买入（首次覆盖） 亿元，同比+26.1%，实现归母净利润 70.2 亿元，同比-15.1%，实现 最近一年走势 扣非后归母净利润48.3亿元，同比+8.0%；2023Q4 实现营收537.1亿 元，同比+41.9%，实现归母净利润 20.3 亿元，同比+1818.2%，实现 扣非后归母净利润10.3亿元，同比+652.0%。 观点：  2023年单车售价同比+8.9%，量价齐升拉动营收增长。2023年公 司整车业务实现量价齐升，营收同比增长26.1%。2023年整车销 量同比+15.8%至123万辆，其中新能源汽车销量同比+99%至26 万辆，占比达21.3%，同比提升9pct。单车均价同比+8.9%至14.1 万元/辆，其中2023Q4单车均价14.6万元/辆，同环比+2.6%/2.0%， 主要系高端品牌销量占比提升，2023Q4 坦克+魏牌销量 ...