Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China State Construction International (830 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.10, reflecting a potential upside of 28.8% based on a projected P/E ratio of 6.0 times for FY25 [4][5][14]. Core Views - The company's FY24 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.0% year-on-year to HKD 650 million, although this was below market expectations of HKD 780 million and HKD 770 million, primarily due to a slowdown in the Hong Kong office building curtain wall projects and a decrease in general contracting revenue [1][4]. - Despite a temporary slowdown in profit growth, the long-term development outlook remains solid, with a target to achieve new contract amounts, revenue, and net profit of at least HKD 35 billion, HKD 25 billion, and HKD 3 billion respectively by 2030 [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 total revenue decreased by 6.5% year-on-year to HKD 8.1 billion, with curtain wall revenue in Hong Kong and Macau growing only 8.4% to HKD 4.97 billion, compared to a 27.4% increase in FY23 [1][5]. - New contract value for FY24 fell by 4.2% year-on-year to HKD 11.5 billion, with a significant decline of 28.3% in the Hong Kong and Macau regions, while mainland new contracts rose by 33.2% to HKD 4.2 billion [2][5]. - The company has identified significant growth potential in its BIPV (Building-Integrated Photovoltaics) business, which has begun to generate electricity in various projects, aligning with national carbon reduction goals and international ESG requirements [3][4]. Financial Data Overview - Key financial metrics for FY24 include: - Revenue: HKD 8.1 billion - Net profit: HKD 650 million - Earnings per share: HKD 0.29 - Dividend per share: HKD 0.10, with a dividend yield of 6.0% [5][12]. - Forecasts for FY25 and FY26 project revenues of HKD 9.9 billion and HKD 11.6 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to reach HKD 789 million and HKD 964 million [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating with a total score of 69 out of 100 [3][14]. Core Insights - The company has a promising pipeline with products that, if approved, could meet significant demand in the Chinese market, particularly for conditions like Pediatric Growth Hormone Deficiency (PGHD) and Hypoparathyroidism [2][8][10]. - The company is positioned as the first endocrine drug manufacturer in the Hong Kong market, which may provide a competitive edge [14]. Industry Outlook - PGHD is prevalent among children under 18, accounting for 41.5% of short stature cases in China, with only 5.3% treatment rate in 2023, indicating a substantial unmet need [2]. - The market for achondroplasia treatment is currently limited, with only two products in clinical trials, suggesting a strong first-mover advantage for the company's product, Navepegritide [6]. - The demand for drugs treating Hypoparathyroidism is expected to grow, with the patient population projected to increase from 410,100 in 2023 to 495,600 by 2030 [7]. Company Operations - The company has not yet launched any products, resulting in no sales revenue. The net loss for shareholders in 2023 was approximately 250 million RMB, a 13.5% reduction year-on-year [8]. - Research and development costs have decreased significantly, contributing to the reduced net loss, while cash flow from operating activities remains healthy with no bank loans [8]. - The company has a robust pipeline with core products already approved in Europe and the U.S., with expectations for approval in China by 2025 [5][10]. Valuation Level - The company's valuation is considered reasonable, with a market capitalization range of 77.0 to 84.6 billion HKD, slightly lower than comparable companies in the biotech sector [10][12]. - The price-to-book ratio for the company's IPO price is estimated at 18.3 to 20.2 times, which is competitive compared to peers [10]. Market Sentiment - The recent market atmosphere has improved, with a higher percentage of newly listed companies experiencing price increases on their debut [13]. - The presence of notable cornerstone investors, such as WuXi Biologics, indicates confidence in the company's research capabilities [14].

Group 1 - The report suggests focusing on undervalued rebound stocks while waiting for a correction to position in the technology sector, indicating that the Hang Seng Index is approaching a reasonable valuation around 25,000, but further valuation upgrades require strong fundamental data and earnings support [1][16][31] - Key sectors to focus on include infrastructure benefiting from local debt acceleration, high dividend defensive sectors, stable consumer brands, and leading companies in AI and the internet post-differentiation [1][16] - The report highlights that the consumer credit policy introduced will help lower short-term financing costs for residents, but the root cause of credit contraction needs to be addressed through boosting medium to long-term income expectations and confidence [1][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the U.S. stock market saw a record high in put option trading volume, indicating extreme pessimism, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have completed double-top measured declines, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound [2] - The report indicates that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.3%, with inflation concerns easing slightly, but uncertainties regarding Trump's policies continue to affect consumer confidence [3][18] - The report mentions that the Chinese retail sales growth for January-February was 4.0%, showing a recovery, but the overall credit environment remains weak, with M1 growth at a historical low [4][13][10] Group 3 - The report states that the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index have forecasted P/E ratios of 10.5x and 11.6x, respectively, which are at 60.1% and 63.7% of their seven-year percentiles, indicating that current valuations are approaching historical highs [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the current risk premium for the Hang Seng Index is at 5.2%, which is the lowest since 2018, suggesting that further valuation improvements will depend on sustained earnings growth and supportive internal policies [31][32] - The report highlights that the net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks remains strong, with a net inflow of 61.6 billion HKD last week, indicating continued interest in sectors like consumer discretionary and non-bank financials [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in FY24 net profit attributable to shareholders, rising by 95.2% to 22.372 billion RMB, driven by higher product prices and lower raw material costs [1][4]. - The average selling prices for aluminum alloy products, alumina products, and aluminum alloy processing products increased by 6.6%, 33.6%, and 2.5% respectively, contributing to improved gross margins [1][8]. - The company has adopted an integrated business model that encompasses upstream, midstream, and downstream operations, ensuring stable production and profit margins [3]. - The dividend per share for FY24 was 1.61 HKD, with the payout ratio increasing from 56.0% in FY23 to 73.3% in FY24, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 10.7% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 revenue reached 156.169 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 16.9% compared to FY23 [5][8]. - The gross margin improved from 15.7% to 27.0%, supported by rising selling prices and declining raw material costs [1][8]. - Operating profit for FY24 was 33.299 billion RMB, marking a 94.8% increase year-on-year [8]. Market Demand - The demand for aluminum products is primarily driven by sectors such as construction, electronics, transportation, and durable consumer goods, accounting for approximately 75% of national electrolytic aluminum consumption [2]. - Factors such as ongoing infrastructure development, improvements in the real estate sector, and the growth of the new energy vehicle market are expected to boost aluminum product demand [2]. Business Model - The company's integrated business model includes upstream operations (bauxite, energy, alumina), midstream (electrolytic aluminum), and downstream (aluminum alloy processing), which helps ensure production stability and profit margins [3]. - The utilization of clean energy sources like hydropower and photovoltaics in production lines supports the company's "dual carbon" strategy and cost reduction efforts [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.67, indicating a potential upside of 26.3% from the current price of HKD 4.49 [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a FY24 net profit of RMB 1.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, with a net profit margin of 11.4%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points from FY23 [1]. - Revenue for FY24 reached RMB 10.07 billion, reflecting a 19.1% year-on-year growth, driven by increases in both adult and children's product sales [1]. - The company plans to expand its store network by adding 124 new outlets in 2024, with a focus on enhancing the shopping experience through the introduction of "super stores" [3]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue: RMB 10,074 million, up 19.1% from FY23 [5] - FY24 net profit: RMB 1,149 million, up 15.4% from FY23 [5] - FY25 projected revenue: RMB 11,869 million, a 17.8% increase [5] - FY25 projected net profit: RMB 1,332 million, a 16.0% increase [5] - FY24 dividend per share: HKD 0.1, with a payout ratio of 45% [1][5]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, inventory rose to RMB 2.11 billion, a 56.2% increase, leading to an increase in inventory turnover days from 93 to 107 days [2]. - Operating cash flow decreased to RMB 56 million due to increased inventory levels [2]. Store Expansion Strategy - The company is set to increase the number of "super stores" from 5 to 100 by the end of 2025, with an expected average store efficiency of RMB 10 million per year [3]. - The product mix in these stores will consist of 30% premium products, 20% off-season products, and 30% cost-effective products [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to 361 Degrees (1361 HK) with a target price of HKD 5.67, indicating a potential upside of 26.3% [6][9] - The report also gives a "Buy" rating to China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price of HKD 7.22, suggesting a potential upside of 24.1% [12][15] Core Insights - 361 Degrees reported a FY24 net profit increase of 15.4% to RMB 1.15 billion, with a revenue of RMB 10.07 billion, reflecting a 19.1% year-on-year growth [6][9] - China Water Affairs expects a significant increase in sewage treatment revenue, projected to rise by 76.8% to HKD 320 million in the first half of FY25, driven by a new contract with ExxonMobil [12][15] - The report highlights a trend of rising water prices due to market-oriented policies, with several cities already initiating price adjustments [13][15] Summary by Sections 361 Degrees (1361 HK) - The company plans to increase its annual dividend payout ratio to 45% and has seen a stable gross margin of 41.5% despite rising costs [6][9] - The company is expanding its retail footprint with the introduction of "super premium" stores, aiming to increase the number from 5 to 100 by the end of 2025 [8] - Inventory levels have risen significantly, impacting cash flow, but management expects improvements in inventory turnover in the coming quarters [7] China Water Affairs (855 HK) - The company is benefiting from a new sewage treatment project with ExxonMobil, which is expected to enhance revenue significantly [12] - The report notes that the company is likely to increase its dividend payout ratio to at least 30% due to reduced capital expenditure [14] - The overall economic stability in China is expected to enhance the attractiveness of public utility stocks, leading to higher valuations [15]

2025 年 3 月 14 日 星期五 每日大市点评 3 月 13 日，港股大盘连续第二天震荡，恒生指数最终微跌 138 点或 0.6%，收报 23,462 点。这是自今年 1 月 23 日以来第 一次连续两天阴烛下跌，说明港股的运行节奏或有所改变。恒生科指下跌 1.7%，收报 5,747 点。大市成交金额进一步下 降至 2,338 亿港元，港股通净流入 54.6 亿港元。港股第一波的估值已基本修复到位，大市成交下降也反映投资者开始谨 慎，甚至有获利的倾向，也有部分资金回流美股博反弹。另外，美国对所有进口钢铝加征 25%关税，不设豁免，全球地缘 政治风险也有所升温，增加了港股的观望情绪。接下来，中国将公布 1-2 月的消费、投资、地产及信贷等重磅经济数据， 将是市场关注的焦点。港股整体估值的进一步修复需要宏观经济的持续改善，推动企业盈利见底回升。昨日盘面行情倾 向保守及防御为主，内银、石油、电讯、煤炭及公用事业股逆市上升，顺周期板块普遍下跌。除机器人概念股保持较强 态势外，大部分 AI+股份近期跑输恒生指数，股价无法升越 2 月中的高点。从这个方度看，港股的 AI 需要休整，消化估 值。我们认为当前要关注低估 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the real estate market, suggesting a phase of consolidation and potential recovery supported by government policies [7][40]. Core Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 1.47 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, but this is a significant slowdown from the previous week's 36.9% growth [1][13]. - The cumulative transaction volume of new homes in first-tier cities shows mixed results, with Beijing down 24.8%, while Shenzhen increased by 108.0% year-on-year [2][21]. - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell sharply by 88.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in land sales [4][32]. - The government is actively implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan aimed at supporting construction and land acquisition [5][35]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - The new home sales volume in 30 major cities was 1.47 million square meters, up 13.3% year-on-year but down 32.5% from the previous week [1][13]. - Year-on-year changes for first, second, and third-tier cities were +43.0%, +7.9%, and -4.2%, respectively [1][13]. Cumulative Transaction Volume in First-tier Cities - Beijing's cumulative sales volume was 790,000 square meters, down 24.8% year-on-year [2][21]. - Shanghai saw a 29.6% increase to 1.63 million square meters, while Guangzhou rose by 49.2% to 1.18 million square meters [2][21]. - Shenzhen's cumulative sales volume reached 690,000 square meters, up 108.0% year-on-year [2][21]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities was 97.5, down from 137.4 year-on-year [3][29]. - First-tier cities had a ratio of 63.7, significantly lower than the previous year's 113.1 [3][29]. Land Transaction Volume - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 341,000 square meters, down 88.3% year-on-year [4][32]. - First-tier cities experienced a 72.4% decline in land sales [4][32]. Government Policies - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes efforts to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including adjusting restrictive policies and controlling new land supply [5][35]. - The report also highlights the importance of improving housing quality and expanding the use of re-loans for affordable housing [5][35]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose by 5.2%, lagging behind the broader market [6][38]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among different categories of property developers, with state-owned enterprises generally performing better than private developers [6][38].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a stabilization and potential growth in the sector [5][7][36]. Core Insights - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.9% and a month-on-month increase of 40.0% [1][13]. - Shenzhen leads in new housing sales among first-tier cities, with a cumulative transaction volume of 630,000 square meters, up 120.2% year-on-year [2][18]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for residential properties in major cities has improved, with a ratio of 108.3, down from 188.7 year-on-year [3][23]. - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell to 19.08 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 39.0% [4][26]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, aiming to mitigate risks and external shocks [5][32]. - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose by 6.2%, outperforming the broader market [6][34]. - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to continue policy support for the real estate market, contributing to its development [7][36]. Summary by Sections New Housing Sales - New housing sales maintained a year-on-year growth, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing increases of 52.2%, 25.2%, and 51.8% respectively [1][13]. - The cumulative transaction volume in first-tier cities showed mixed results, with Beijing down 29.6% year-on-year, while Shanghai and Guangzhou saw increases of 25.5% and 56.3% respectively [2][18]. Inventory and Sales Ratios - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities improved, indicating a healthier market condition, with first-tier cities at 70.7 and second-tier cities at 164.4 [3][23]. Land Transactions - Land transaction volumes continued to decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a significant drop of 61.5% year-on-year [4][26]. Policy and Market Developments - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with ongoing discussions about digital construction initiatives [5][32]. - The performance of Hong Kong-listed property stocks has been strong, with various categories of developers showing significant gains [6][34]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued policy support during the National People's Congress, which may further stabilize and enhance the real estate market [7][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 7.22, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of HKD 5.82 [4][6][15]. Core Insights - The economic stability in China is expected to enhance the attractiveness of dividend-paying public utility stocks, with China Water Affairs benefiting from increased sewage treatment revenue due to the commencement of operations at the ExxonMobil petrochemical project in Huizhou [1]. - The company is experiencing a trend of water price increases across various projects, supported by new market-oriented policies from the government, which is likely to bolster revenue [2]. - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase, with expectations of reaching at least 30% in the coming years, providing further investment appeal [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25, the company forecasts a revenue of HKD 12.284 billion, a decrease of 4.5% compared to the previous year, with a net profit of HKD 1.475 billion, reflecting a decline of 3.8% [5][11]. - The company’s operating income is expected to grow significantly in the sewage treatment segment, with a projected increase of 64.8% in FY26 [11]. - The report highlights a decrease in construction revenue by 35.7% in the first half of FY25, leading to reduced capital expenditure expectations [3][5]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue distribution indicates a shift towards more stable income sources, with sewage treatment expected to contribute significantly to overall revenue growth [11]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 upwards by 1.9% and 4.4% respectively, reflecting improved operational performance [4][11]. Market Context - The report notes that over 20 cities have initiated water price adjustment procedures, indicating a broader trend towards higher water tariffs, which will support the company's revenue growth [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic recovery in China, which is expected to enhance its valuation in the public utility sector [4].