中国房地产周报 | 2025 年 2 月 18 日 中国房地产周报 | 2025 年 2 月 10 日至 16 日 更应关注未来两三周数字 新房成交量持续同比大幅上涨，主因去年同期为春节假期 上周(至 2 月 16 日)30 大中城市商品新房成交量达 120 万平方米，同比上涨 1,011.9%，优 于前周的 13.4%同比下跌，环比增长 82.6%，差于前周的 380.4%环比上升。上周同比大幅 上涨的主因相信是去年同期为春节假期。不同类别城市也同比大幅上涨。上周同比变化 率：一、二、三线城市分别为+1,096.3%、+804.1%、+1,789.6(前周同比：+57.3%、- 27.8%、-18.8%)。 一线新房成交量：不同城市的同比变化差异扩大 按面积，上周十大城市商品房存销比为 320.0，高于去年同期的 214.5 及前周的 224.5。 今年春节假期已完结，但存销比同比及环比仍然上升，未如理想。 土地成交量同比上升 上周 100 大中城市成交土地规划建筑面积为 1,609 万平方米，同比增长 217.9%，环比下 跌 8.0%，同比变化优于前周的 26.1%同比上升。 国务院常务会议：更好满足住 ...

医药| 2025 年 2 月 18 日 医药| 行业点评 重点推荐年报预期良好的企业 2025 年 1 月全球与中国医疗融资呈回暖态势 根据著名医疗数据库动脉网统计，2025年1月全球医疗健康行业披露的融资总额为80.04亿美元， 较 12 月环比上升 100.5%。中国市场 1 月披露的医疗健康行业融资总额为 9.56 亿美元，较 11-12 月 分别上升 90.8%与 71.3%。全球医疗健康行业的融资总额在 2022-23 年大幅下降后，2024 年已同比 回升 1.4%，因此 1 月是在持续回暖。中国的医疗健康行业融资总额 2022 年后持续下滑，2024 年 仍同比下降 33.0%，回暖速度慢于全球。虽然如此，2025 年 1 月中国市场的医疗健康行业融资情 况也呈回暖状态。 国家医保局将积极推进医保跨省共济，将一定程度利好药品销售 根据国家医保局新闻，截止 2 月 4 日，广东、上海、江苏、西藏等 14 个省、自治区和直辖市的 117 个统筹地区（地级以上行政区及一定人口以上的县或市）已开通医保跨省共济。国家医保局 2 月 14 日再次指出将继续推进跨省共济的普及，2025 年底前 90%以上的统 ...

2025 年 2 月 17 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 中国 AI 投资概念火热，叠加美国总统特朗普的对等关税延迟等因素，共同刺激港股继续向上，上周四美国最新 PPI 部分 分项数据指向 1 月的核心 PCE 增速有望继续下行，带动美元指数破位向下，同期非美市场货币上升，资金流利好港股表 现。上周恒生指数全周大涨 7.0%，收报 22,620 点，创去年 10 月 7 日以来收市新高。恒生科指全周上升 7.3%，收报 5,526 点，创自 2022 年 2 月中旬以来收市新高。上周大市日均成交金额按周大增 64.8%至 2,980 多亿港元。从市场内部升市结 构看来，AI+是本轮港股的主线，包括信息科技、医疗保健、电讯、工业等综合行业分类指数表现突出。 ➢ 近期研报摘要分享 【中泰国际】中国房地产周报 (2025.02.03 - 02.09)：假期效应影响整体成交，但一线城市展现活力 当前内部处于政策及经济数据的空窗期，AI 提高中国企业营运效率成部分外资及对冲基金增配的逻辑，而外部特朗普采 取"攘外必先安内"的政策，对华压力边际舒缓，都给予港股向上的窗口。上周港股成交持续增加，人民币转强，中国 10 年期 ...

Market Overview - On December 17, the Hang Seng Index fell by 95 points or 0.5%, closing at 19,971 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 25 points or 0.6% to 4,389 points[1] - Market turnover decreased to HKD 132 billion, indicating cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision[1] Sector Performance - Technology stocks, including Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Baidu, all declined by over 1%[1] - Gold stocks continued to drop due to strong expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut, with Shandong Gold falling for three consecutive days[1] - Tourism and dining stocks performed well, with Tongcheng Travel rising by 3.8% and Haidilao increasing by 3.1% due to the relaxation of visa policies[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. December Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3%, down from 49.7%, marking the lowest level since 2020, while the Services PMI rose to 58.5%, exceeding expectations and indicating strong growth potential[2] - The service sector, which accounts for 80% of the U.S. GDP, is expected to enhance the probability of an economic soft landing and reduce the necessity for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] Investment Insights - Central state-owned enterprises are expected to remain in focus due to ongoing reforms and new market management regulations, benefiting sectors with stable cash flows like utilities and telecommunications[2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) saw a 1.7% increase, indicating a counter-trend performance amid a declining market[1] Stock Recommendations - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 965.9 billion and RMB 1,059.1 billion in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a net profit of RMB 60.7 billion and RMB 69.3 billion[11] - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 50%, offering a dividend yield of approximately 5%-6%[11]

Market Performance - On December 12, the Hang Seng Index rose by 242 points or 1.2%, closing at 20,397 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.5%, closing at 4,600 points[1] - Market turnover slightly increased to over HKD 157.8 billion, with a net outflow of HKD 2.929 billion from the Hong Kong Stock Connect[1] Policy Expectations - There is renewed market anticipation for consumption stimulus, increased fiscal spending, and potential interest rate cuts, with specific details expected at the upcoming "Two Sessions" in January[2] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield fell to a record low of 1.81%, indicating a potential for further monetary easing[2] Economic Indicators - U.S. November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, reflecting a downward trend in inflation but with signs of volatility[3] - Core CPI remained stable at a 0.3% month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, indicating steady consumer spending in the U.S.[3] Automotive Sector - In November, domestic passenger car sales increased by 16.52% year-on-year and 7.1% month-on-month, with cumulative sales for January-November up by 4.7%[4] - New energy vehicle sales surged by 50.5% year-on-year, achieving a penetration rate of 52%[4] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 0.1%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.1 percentage points amid cautious market sentiment regarding the latest drug procurement round[5] - The latest procurement round included 62 products, the highest number to date, covering various therapeutic areas[5] Renewable Energy Sector - The U.S. plans to increase tariffs on solar products from China, which may impact the local photovoltaic market, although the immediate market reaction was muted[5] - Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant increases of 2.6% and 6.6%, respectively, with Bitcoin surpassing USD 100,000[6] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 2.6 million square meters, up 8.4% year-on-year but down 29.9% month-on-month[13] - First-tier cities have seen new home sales increase for eight consecutive weeks, with Shenzhen showing a year-to-date increase of 12.1%[14] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include policy changes, interest rate fluctuations, project delays, and financing difficulties in the real estate sector[18]

策略周报| 2024 年 12 月 9 日 香港股市 | 2024 年 12 月 2 日 - 2024 年 12 月 8 日 政策预期促反弹，预期落地后或转向结构性机会 每周策略建议 港股：港股在政策刺激预期下连续两周反弹，叠加美联储降息预期升温，美元指数 和 10 年期美债高位回落，局部抒缓港股流动性压力。中国 11 月 CPI 同比回落，PPI 跌幅有所收窄，但整体有效需求回升动力仍然不足，市场期待 12 月重要会议带来 较大规模的财政刺激规模和潜在的降准降息落地等。不过，在统筹高质量发展和高 水平安全的政策主线下，政策力度料保持温和渐进，也需要为特朗普明年上台后高 关税等对华强硬措施留足应对空间，因此年末政策或难有超预期的宽松信号，重点 关注重要会议对于明年政策的整体定调。在交易政策预期的初期，消费互联网、内 险、家电、博彩、文旅、生物医药、消费电子板块或有较佳弹性。中长期而言，新 质生产力、"两重"建设等为确定性较高的财政投向，内部建设相关度较高的新基 建、旧改、高端制造板块有望展现更好的韧性。 美股：龙头股带动下，美股三大指数再度破顶。美联储官员对经济表达信心， GDPNOW 模型暂时预计四季度 G ...

Market Overview - On December 4, the Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 4 points, closing at 19,742 points, with a trading range of only 208 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.3%, closing at 4,404 points, with total market turnover at approximately HKD 131.1 billion[1] - Net outflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 10.36 billion, indicating a shift towards high-dividend stocks in the market[1] Sector Performance - Energy and telecommunications sectors were the focus, with CNOOC (883 HK), PetroChina (857 HK), and Sinopec (386 HK) rising between 2.1% and 3.2%[1] - The automotive sector saw significant growth, with SUTENG (2498 HK) reporting a 91.5% year-on-year revenue increase, leading to an 11.9% stock price rise in one day[3] - The healthcare sector's Hang Seng Medical Care Index fell by 0.9%, despite no negative news in the pharmaceutical industry[4] Policy and Economic Outlook - Short-term support for the Hong Kong market is expected due to strong policy expectations, although U.S.-China trade tensions may increase risk premiums for Chinese assets[2] - The U.S. job market shows signs of stability, with job openings rising to 7.744 million in October, up from 7.372 million in September, indicating a positive employment trend[2] Healthcare Sector Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration's new policy supports innovative drugs, with 90 out of 91 newly included drugs being launched within the last five years[7] - The success rate for innovative drugs in the recent negotiation round was 90%, compared to an overall success rate of 76%[7] Risks and Recommendations - Potential risks include unexpected price reductions from healthcare negotiations and slower-than-expected new drug development[10] - Continued recommendations for companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (1177 HK) due to expected strong performance in 2024[9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 87 points or 0.4% to close at 19,663 points on November 19, marking a slight rebound for the second consecutive day[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.2%, closing at 4,395 points, while market turnover dropped to approximately HKD 121.9 billion, the lowest since November 4[1] - The volatility index for the Hang Seng Index fell by 6.1%, reaching a one-month low, indicating reduced market activity[1] Sector Performance - The materials sector led gains with a 4.0% increase, driven by significant rises in companies like Ganfeng Lithium (up 11.7% to 13.3%) and China Gold[1] - Brokerage stocks benefited from high A-share financing balances, with China Merchants Securities rising by 6.3%[1] - Consumer sectors, including automotive and appliances, also saw positive performance, although Xiaomi's stock fell by 1.7% after earnings, while Trip.com rose by 5.8%[1] Macroeconomic Indicators - China's fiscal revenue in October reached CNY 2.19 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with tax revenue growth turning positive for the first time this year at 1.8%[2] - Non-tax revenue surged by 39.6% year-on-year, totaling CNY 285.5 billion, indicating strong growth in this area[2] - Government expenditure in October accelerated to CNY 1.97 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.4%, supported by infrastructure spending[2] Investment Outlook - The Hang Seng Index is expected to find technical support around the 19,500-point level, with future performance dependent on the sustainability of economic recovery momentum[8] - The report suggests that while the market faces short-term pressures, there is potential for recovery driven by infrastructure investment and consumer policies expected from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference[8]

策略周报| 2024 年 10 月 15 日 香港股市 | 2024 年 10 月 7 日 - 2024 年 10 月 13 日 港股进入震荡区间，波段操作为上 每周策略建议 港股：港股快速拉升的赚效行情暂时完结，恒指在高见 23,200 点时已估值偏高，大 成交下跌的出现也预示港股进入震荡区间。当前恒指的超买状态大幅缓和，估值也 回到略有承接力的水平，沽空比率跌至低位，流动性较为充足，叠加财政政策发力 预期，均有望支撑股市热度。恒指波幅指数接近 40 点的极高水平，策略上宜低买 高沽捕捉波段，板块分化或愈加明显，Alpha 将超越 Beta，有盈利支撑及估值合理 的股份会率先跑出。我们偏好 1) 盈利增长持续改善，股东回报提升的头部互联网； 2) 受益资本市场回暖的内险；3)捕捉业绩稳健的消费板块龙头弹性，家电、餐饮、 博彩、文旅；4) 受惠四季度中央财政发力的工程机械及电气设备；5) 能源、电讯、 公用事业及部分必选消费等高息股攻守兼备。 美股：美股在交易软着陆，三大指数再创新高，市场升势全面。9 月新增非农超预 期、ISM 服务业 PMI 向好，GDPNOW 模型预计三季度 GDP 录得 3.2%环比折 ...

Market Performance - On October 14, the Hang Seng Index experienced a high-low fluctuation of 655 points, closing down 159 points or 0.8% at 21,092 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.4%, closing at 4,668 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.0%[1] - Market turnover decreased to HKD 277.1 billion, the lowest since October 4, indicating a potential downward trend in trading volume[1] Economic Indicators - In September, new RMB loans decreased by CNY 720 billion year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for residents declining for eight consecutive months[1] - The M1 money supply fell by 7.4% year-on-year, marking a record low, indicating insufficient cash flow in the economy[1] - September's export figures showed a 2.4% year-on-year increase, the lowest growth rate since May, falling short of the expected 6%[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, down 12.0% year-on-year, but up 139.2% month-on-month[2] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for the top ten cities was 94.7, higher than last year's 72.7 but lower than the previous week's 111.3[2] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 22.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing zero transactions[4] Investment Strategy - The Hang Seng Index's PE ratio has recovered to a seven-year average, with a potential target range of 23,500 to 25,000 points by year-end[5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, including consumer goods, technology, and non-bank financials[6] - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating the economy are expected to improve market sentiment and potentially lead to a recovery in the real estate sector[5]