Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to 361 Degrees (1361 HK) with a target price of HKD 5.67, indicating a potential upside of 26.3% [6][9] - The report also gives a "Buy" rating to China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price of HKD 7.22, suggesting a potential upside of 24.1% [12][15] Core Insights - 361 Degrees reported a FY24 net profit increase of 15.4% to RMB 1.15 billion, with a revenue of RMB 10.07 billion, reflecting a 19.1% year-on-year growth [6][9] - China Water Affairs expects a significant increase in sewage treatment revenue, projected to rise by 76.8% to HKD 320 million in the first half of FY25, driven by a new contract with ExxonMobil [12][15] - The report highlights a trend of rising water prices due to market-oriented policies, with several cities already initiating price adjustments [13][15] Summary by Sections 361 Degrees (1361 HK) - The company plans to increase its annual dividend payout ratio to 45% and has seen a stable gross margin of 41.5% despite rising costs [6][9] - The company is expanding its retail footprint with the introduction of "super premium" stores, aiming to increase the number from 5 to 100 by the end of 2025 [8] - Inventory levels have risen significantly, impacting cash flow, but management expects improvements in inventory turnover in the coming quarters [7] China Water Affairs (855 HK) - The company is benefiting from a new sewage treatment project with ExxonMobil, which is expected to enhance revenue significantly [12] - The report notes that the company is likely to increase its dividend payout ratio to at least 30% due to reduced capital expenditure [14] - The overall economic stability in China is expected to enhance the attractiveness of public utility stocks, leading to higher valuations [15]

2025 年 3 月 14 日 星期五 每日大市点评 3 月 13 日，港股大盘连续第二天震荡，恒生指数最终微跌 138 点或 0.6%，收报 23,462 点。这是自今年 1 月 23 日以来第 一次连续两天阴烛下跌，说明港股的运行节奏或有所改变。恒生科指下跌 1.7%，收报 5,747 点。大市成交金额进一步下 降至 2,338 亿港元，港股通净流入 54.6 亿港元。港股第一波的估值已基本修复到位，大市成交下降也反映投资者开始谨 慎，甚至有获利的倾向，也有部分资金回流美股博反弹。另外，美国对所有进口钢铝加征 25%关税，不设豁免，全球地缘 政治风险也有所升温，增加了港股的观望情绪。接下来，中国将公布 1-2 月的消费、投资、地产及信贷等重磅经济数据， 将是市场关注的焦点。港股整体估值的进一步修复需要宏观经济的持续改善，推动企业盈利见底回升。昨日盘面行情倾 向保守及防御为主，内银、石油、电讯、煤炭及公用事业股逆市上升，顺周期板块普遍下跌。除机器人概念股保持较强 态势外，大部分 AI+股份近期跑输恒生指数，股价无法升越 2 月中的高点。从这个方度看，港股的 AI 需要休整，消化估 值。我们认为当前要关注低估 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the real estate market, suggesting a phase of consolidation and potential recovery supported by government policies [7][40]. Core Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 1.47 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, but this is a significant slowdown from the previous week's 36.9% growth [1][13]. - The cumulative transaction volume of new homes in first-tier cities shows mixed results, with Beijing down 24.8%, while Shenzhen increased by 108.0% year-on-year [2][21]. - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell sharply by 88.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant contraction in land sales [4][32]. - The government is actively implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan aimed at supporting construction and land acquisition [5][35]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - The new home sales volume in 30 major cities was 1.47 million square meters, up 13.3% year-on-year but down 32.5% from the previous week [1][13]. - Year-on-year changes for first, second, and third-tier cities were +43.0%, +7.9%, and -4.2%, respectively [1][13]. Cumulative Transaction Volume in First-tier Cities - Beijing's cumulative sales volume was 790,000 square meters, down 24.8% year-on-year [2][21]. - Shanghai saw a 29.6% increase to 1.63 million square meters, while Guangzhou rose by 49.2% to 1.18 million square meters [2][21]. - Shenzhen's cumulative sales volume reached 690,000 square meters, up 108.0% year-on-year [2][21]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities was 97.5, down from 137.4 year-on-year [3][29]. - First-tier cities had a ratio of 63.7, significantly lower than the previous year's 113.1 [3][29]. Land Transaction Volume - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 341,000 square meters, down 88.3% year-on-year [4][32]. - First-tier cities experienced a 72.4% decline in land sales [4][32]. Government Policies - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes efforts to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including adjusting restrictive policies and controlling new land supply [5][35]. - The report also highlights the importance of improving housing quality and expanding the use of re-loans for affordable housing [5][35]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose by 5.2%, lagging behind the broader market [6][38]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among different categories of property developers, with state-owned enterprises generally performing better than private developers [6][38].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a stabilization and potential growth in the sector [5][7][36]. Core Insights - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.9% and a month-on-month increase of 40.0% [1][13]. - Shenzhen leads in new housing sales among first-tier cities, with a cumulative transaction volume of 630,000 square meters, up 120.2% year-on-year [2][18]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for residential properties in major cities has improved, with a ratio of 108.3, down from 188.7 year-on-year [3][23]. - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell to 19.08 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 39.0% [4][26]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, aiming to mitigate risks and external shocks [5][32]. - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose by 6.2%, outperforming the broader market [6][34]. - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to continue policy support for the real estate market, contributing to its development [7][36]. Summary by Sections New Housing Sales - New housing sales maintained a year-on-year growth, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing increases of 52.2%, 25.2%, and 51.8% respectively [1][13]. - The cumulative transaction volume in first-tier cities showed mixed results, with Beijing down 29.6% year-on-year, while Shanghai and Guangzhou saw increases of 25.5% and 56.3% respectively [2][18]. Inventory and Sales Ratios - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities improved, indicating a healthier market condition, with first-tier cities at 70.7 and second-tier cities at 164.4 [3][23]. Land Transactions - Land transaction volumes continued to decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a significant drop of 61.5% year-on-year [4][26]. Policy and Market Developments - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with ongoing discussions about digital construction initiatives [5][32]. - The performance of Hong Kong-listed property stocks has been strong, with various categories of developers showing significant gains [6][34]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued policy support during the National People's Congress, which may further stabilize and enhance the real estate market [7][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 7.22, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of HKD 5.82 [4][6][15]. Core Insights - The economic stability in China is expected to enhance the attractiveness of dividend-paying public utility stocks, with China Water Affairs benefiting from increased sewage treatment revenue due to the commencement of operations at the ExxonMobil petrochemical project in Huizhou [1]. - The company is experiencing a trend of water price increases across various projects, supported by new market-oriented policies from the government, which is likely to bolster revenue [2]. - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase, with expectations of reaching at least 30% in the coming years, providing further investment appeal [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25, the company forecasts a revenue of HKD 12.284 billion, a decrease of 4.5% compared to the previous year, with a net profit of HKD 1.475 billion, reflecting a decline of 3.8% [5][11]. - The company’s operating income is expected to grow significantly in the sewage treatment segment, with a projected increase of 64.8% in FY26 [11]. - The report highlights a decrease in construction revenue by 35.7% in the first half of FY25, leading to reduced capital expenditure expectations [3][5]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue distribution indicates a shift towards more stable income sources, with sewage treatment expected to contribute significantly to overall revenue growth [11]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 upwards by 1.9% and 4.4% respectively, reflecting improved operational performance [4][11]. Market Context - The report notes that over 20 cities have initiated water price adjustment procedures, indicating a broader trend towards higher water tariffs, which will support the company's revenue growth [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic recovery in China, which is expected to enhance its valuation in the public utility sector [4].

2025 年 3 月 13 日 星期四 每日大市点评 3 月 12 日，港股大盘无法承接周二强势，昨日先冲高后回落，恒生指数最终下跌 181 点或 0.8%，收报 23,600 点。恒生科 指下跌 2.0%，收报 5,845 点。大市成交金额有 2,785 多亿港元，港股通大幅流入超过 262 亿港元。虽然港股通持续南下 撑市，但港股的升势似乎有所放缓，整体运行节奏也改变，从 1 月以来的单边上升转化为多空震荡。无论从预测 PE、风 险溢价、股息率及 AH 溢价指数都反映港股的第一波估值基本修复到位，当前进入经济数据及业绩的发布期，市场焦点都 会逐渐回到基本面，港股整体估值进一步上修需要基本面和盈利面的配合。另外，连日大跌的美股或到达反弹阶段，不 排除有部分资金或回流美股。昨日恒生香港中资企业指数(红筹股)仅下跌 0.3%，说明资金开始转向防御性或落后股份。 盘面上看，券商、黄金相关、材料、通讯设备、公用事业、基建、部分汽车及智能驾驶概念股表现较好，而消费、医 疗、地产及科技等顺周期都有较大跌幅。近期显著上升的消费类半新股大多出现大成交冲高回落，如布鲁可(325 HK)、 毛戈平(1318 HK)及蜜雪(20 ...

策略研究 | 2025 年 3 月 11 日 2025 年 3 月港股市场策略展望 港股估值快速修复，科技突围迎结构性机会 请阅读最后一页的重要声明 页码: 1 / 24 策略研究 | 2025 年 3 月 11 日 策略研究| 港股 3 月市场策略 港股估值快速修复，科技突围迎结构性机会 2025 年开年以来港股市场景气度回升，港股通是本轮升市的主力，年初以来流入速度及规 模均超越历史同期。截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，2025 年恒生指数及科技指数分别上涨 20.6%及 34.7%，领跑全球主要股市。港股的 PE 及风险溢价已经大幅修复，AH 溢价指数也跌近三年 来低位。随着业绩期开始及重要会议落幕，市场重心重回企业盈利及宏观经济，而美国以 关税为政治筹码"策略或使中美博弈重回焦点，加征关税进程很可能在贸易调查后加速， 同时需要警惕关税以外的制裁风险，这时港股出现获利了结的调整也不意外。不过， Deepseek 催化中国科技股的估值重估逻辑，未来数年港股的机会更多是由自下而上的产业 逻辑推动，考虑到中国科技企业的资本开支扩张周期重启、人工智能带来降本增效及应用 场景全面开花等多重利好，叠加预期主动外 ...

每日大市点评 3 月 11 日，受隔夜美股大跌影响低开的港股日内逐渐收窄跌幅并转涨，恒生指数基本平收，恒生科技指数升 1.4%或 81 点，收 5,967 点。大市成交额 3,070 亿元，成交量仍保持活跃。但港股通则转为净流出逾 40 亿港元，结束自上周三以来 持续净流入。盘面上表现分化，大型科技股早盘随外围走弱，最终涨跌参半，快手（1024 HK）涨超 5%，腾讯（700 HK）、百度（9888 HK）飘红，但美团（3690 HK）、京东（9618 HK）均跌超 1%，阿里巴巴（9988 HK）微跌。内需相关 的部分食品饮料、餐饮等龙头股升幅明显，半导体、机器人等热门概念板块有所回暖。国际金价受压，导致黄金股普 跌，有色金属股跟跌。 在外围市场大跌背景下，港股大盘仍能相对企稳，说明了市场对于本轮中国 AI 浪潮科技突围的叙事拥有较强的信心。当 前港股估值已迅速修复，恒生指数及 MSCI 中国指数的预测 PE 分别为 10.4 倍及 11.7 倍，处于 57.4%及 64.4%的七年分位 数。恒生指数及 MSCI 中国指数风险溢价分别为 5.4%及 4.4%，处于 0.8%及 1.1%的七年分位数。港股估值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company [4][7][18] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant improvement in FY25 performance, with a projected rebound in gross margins and net profit [3][4] - FY24 saw a substantial decline in net profit by 73.8% to 1.01 billion RMB, attributed to falling photovoltaic glass prices and increased impairment losses [1][6] - The company plans to increase its effective annual melting capacity slightly in FY25, with no new production lines planned but a revival of existing lines [2] Financial Performance Summary - FY24 total revenue decreased by 9.3% to 21.92 billion RMB, with photovoltaic glass revenue down 11.9% to 18.82 billion RMB [1][11] - Gross profit and gross margin for FY24 fell by 46.3% and 10.9 percentage points to 3.47 billion RMB and 15.8%, respectively [1][11] - The company anticipates a gross margin rebound in FY25, with an expected increase of 4.5 percentage points to 12.1% for photovoltaic glass [3][11] - FY25 net profit is projected to rebound by 89.7% to 1.91 billion RMB, followed by a 15.9% increase in FY26 [3][11] Target Price and Valuation - The target price has been raised from 3.22 HKD to 3.43 HKD, corresponding to a 15x FY25 target P/E ratio [4][7] - The current stock price is 3.47 HKD, indicating a 1.2% downside potential from the target price [4][7]

中国房地产周报 | 2025 年 3 月 4 日 中国房地产周报 | 2025 年 2 月 24 日至 3 月 2 日 市场展现阶段性成果 新房成交量保持同比增长 上周(至 3 月 2 日)30 大中城市商品新房成交量达 218 万平方米，同比上涨 36.9%，少于前 周的 60.6%同比增幅，环比增长 40.0%，多于前周的 29.7%环比增幅。不同类别城市也同 比上涨。上周同比变化率：一、二、三线城市分别为+52.2%、+25.2%、+51.8%(前周同 比：+74.0%、+42.6%、+89.2%)。 一线新房累计成交量：深圳增幅依然领先 一线城市(北上广深)中，按同比增长率，深圳依然相对领先。2025 年首周至今深圳一手 商品住宅累计成交量为 63 万平方米，同比增长 120.2%，略低于前周的 128.7%升幅。北 京累计成交量为 70 万平方米，同比下跌 29.6%，但优于前周的 35.7%跌幅。上海及广州 累计成交量分别为 145 万及 106 万平方米，同比上升 25.5%及 56.3%(注：前周同比增长 19.2%及 62.2%)。 商品房存销比持续环比改善 按面积，十大城市商品房存销比为 ...