那我先总述一下然后呢有请我们几个小伙伴对每个行业做一个分享那我们前天也出了一篇整个2024年的下半年展望的报告我们先复查了一下从2020年到现在整个AAC股交通运输行业其实是跑赢大盘19个和24个百分点的主要是有三个方向一个方向就是全球经济贸易的变革地缘政治带来的一个周期性的机遇比如航运 第二类就是经济弱幅度下量增价稳可能产生本能性的旅游高股息防御性的一些资产机遇比如公路港口第三个是上下游整合带来的中游的物流赛道进度提升比如快运的相关板块站在这个节点我们展望2024年的下半年我们重点推荐是出口电物流以及航运的一些投资机会下面有请刚贤先讲一下一些航运的一些相关的变化谢谢 好的谢谢体育总各位投资者大家下午好我是中天交运的分析师刘刚权我首先来汇报一下航运港口的产业然后的话再讲一下快递航运的话从整个我们觉得还是应该从整个大的周期角度去出发考虑这样的一个问题因为航运市场它有一个特点就是说运价的 数据一个是呢数据非常多另外的话波动呢也很快很大然后各种的新闻啊信息啊其实也是比较多的所以如果我们呃太纠结于一些细节的话这样的话会对于投资也会有比较多的一些干扰那我先说结论呃我们觉得下半年来看的话应该三季度一句话总结我们的结论的话 ...

高盛：市场每日美国选举真的是收益率曲线变陡 ...

高盛：市场评论选举足迹首次总统辩论的线索 ...

日银的政策会议及外汇干预 日元在 6 月末再度跌破 160 关口。 至此, 日元已经回吐了 4 月底 5 月初财务省实施外汇 干预以来的所有涨幅。我们认为在一些内外因素的牵制下,日本当局或不会在 160 的位置实施新一轮外汇干预，这可 能会令日元进一步回落。向前看，日元跌势能否缓和可能要取决于日本央行在７月份是否会进行加息。日银总裁植田 在 6 月的议会听证中已经提示了 7 月加息的可能性。如果日银能够在 7 月兑现加息预期,日元的跌势或能够受到短期 的牵制。而如果预期落空,则日元在日银会后存在加速下跌的风险。 2 https://news.cctv.com/2024/06/10/ARTIhpEGHj5ntvkwpzalz7l9240610.shtml 6 https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1802704429966212176𝔴=spider&for=pc 目类 N 手调研纪要和研报数据加V，shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 6 月:外汇市场供求压力依然偏大,不过在稳汇率政策托举下,人民币对美元双边汇率在 6 月的每周均录得小幅贬 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Transportation Industry and Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The conference focused on the transportation industry, particularly shipping, logistics, and express delivery sectors, highlighting investment opportunities and market dynamics. Key Points on Shipping and Ports 1. **Investment Opportunities in Shipping**: The Pacific Shipping stock is highlighted for its high dividend payout ratio of over 50% of net assets, suggesting it is a buy on dips. The shipping sector is expected to see improvements in container shipping in Q3 and oil shipping in Q4, indicating a favorable investment environment [1][2][3]. 2. **Port Sector Performance**: The port sector is characterized as a basic infrastructure segment with limited earnings elasticity. However, it is expected to benefit from the overall improvement in foreign trade demand, primarily through increased cargo throughput and related handling fees, although price correlation with shipping rates is minimal [2][3]. 3. **Selection Criteria for Port Investments**: Focus on location, profitability, and cash flow is emphasized, with specific ports like Shanghai and Tangshan showing potential for double-digit ROE and attractive dividend yields of 4-5% [3]. Key Points on Express Delivery 1. **Market Growth**: The express delivery sector has seen a surprising growth rate of 25% from January to May, with expectations of annual growth potentially exceeding 20% due to increased consumer demand [4][5]. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: Despite concerns about competition, the express delivery sector is viewed as having good value for investment. The likelihood of rapid industry consolidation is low, with cost pressures limiting aggressive price competition [8][9]. 3. **Leading Companies**: Companies like Zhongtong and Yunda are highlighted for their stable performance and dividend policies, with Zhongtong offering a 40% dividend payout. The sector is expected to present opportunities in the second half of the year [9][10]. Key Points on Non-Express Logistics 1. **Focus on Export Chain Logistics**: The export logistics segment is expected to perform well, driven by strong overseas demand and supply chain dynamics. Companies like Eastern Airlines Logistics and China Foreign Trade are recommended for investment [10][11][12]. 2. **Market Performance**: The non-express logistics sector has outperformed the broader market, with significant gains in specific segments like cross-border logistics [12][13]. 3. **Future Outlook**: The demand for logistics services is anticipated to remain strong, supported by inventory replenishment cycles and supply constraints [13][14]. Key Points on Aviation Sector 1. **Airline Performance**: The aviation sector is expected to see a robust summer travel season, with passenger volumes projected to grow by 7-10%. Ticket prices are also expected to recover, indicating a positive outlook for airlines [29][30][35]. 2. **Structural Differences**: There are notable differences in performance between business and domestic routes, with business routes underperforming due to reduced corporate travel budgets [32][34]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: Airlines like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines are recommended due to their strong performance in the current economic environment, while China Eastern Airlines is noted for its potential recovery from previous losses [36]. Key Points on Airport Operations 1. **Recovery Trends**: Airports have shown a recovery in traffic, with domestic and international passenger volumes reaching 101% and 68% of 2019 levels, respectively [37][38]. 2. **Revenue Growth**: International routes are expected to see significant revenue growth compared to previous years, driven by increased demand and improved pricing strategies [38][39]. 3. **Capital Expenditure**: Future capital expenditures in airport infrastructure are highlighted as a key area to monitor, particularly for major projects like the expansion of major airports [41][42]. Conclusion - The transportation industry, encompassing shipping, logistics, express delivery, and aviation, presents various investment opportunities driven by market recovery and structural changes. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals, competitive advantages, and favorable market conditions.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses the potential for curve steepeners and inflation breakevens as investment strategies in the context of the upcoming US election [5][15]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the implications of the US election on interest rate markets, suggesting that a Republican win, particularly a Trump presidency, could lead to higher yields and a steeper yield curve due to increased fiscal expansion and policy uncertainty [5][7]. - However, it also highlights several factors that may challenge this view, including modest supply-driven yield repricing and the historical market response to tariffs as a negative productivity shock, which could lead to lower yields and a flatter curve [3][10][15]. - The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic backdrop is significantly different from previous election cycles, which may result in varied market reactions to potential tariff announcements and Fed policy changes [10][17]. Summary by Sections Election Impact on Yields - The report suggests that the market's perception of a Trump presidency could support higher yields and a steeper curve, but the actual supply outlook may not differ significantly between a Trump and Biden presidency [8][10]. - It notes that fiscal deficits and debt supply are expected to be worse this time, potentially leading to slightly higher term premia, but any direct yield repricing due to the election is expected to be modest [8][10]. Trade Policy and Market Reactions - Historical evidence indicates that major tariff announcements in 2019 led to lower yields and a flattening of inflation curves, as the market viewed tariffs as a negative productivity shock [10][13]. - The report warns that the current macro backdrop, with higher starting inflation levels, may limit the Fed's ability to respond aggressively to inflationary shocks from tariffs [10][17]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on buying front-end and belly inflation breakevens and conditional bear flatteners as cleaner election hedges rather than outright curve steepeners [4][15]. - It suggests that the risks of lower yields and a flatter curve, particularly in the front end, may be more compelling than positioning for higher long-end yields [15][19].

Summary of Wind Power and Power Grid Industry Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the wind power and power grid sectors in China, highlighting significant developments and investment trends in 2024 [1][2][3]. Key Points on Wind Power - **2024 Wind Power Bidding Capacity**: As of 2024, the cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines in China reached 45.7 GW, a 12% increase year-on-year. This includes 41.7 GW for onshore wind (up 16%) and 4.0 GW for offshore wind (down 19%) [2][11]. - **Average Winning Bid Price**: The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) in 2024 is 1,464 RMB/kW [2][11]. - **Project Approvals**: In Q1 2024, 71 wind power projects were approved across 19 provinces, totaling approximately 13.7 GW. In 2023, the total approved capacity was 67.3 GW, a 60.6% increase year-on-year [2][11]. - **Installed Capacity**: In 2023, the newly installed wind power capacity reached 75.66 GW, marking a 101.1% increase year-on-year, setting a historical record [2][11]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report suggests that while domestic installations faced constraints in 2023, a recovery is expected in 2024, particularly in offshore wind projects, which are anticipated to see significant growth [2][3]. - **Material Prices**: The prices of black raw materials have decreased, while epoxy resin prices have slightly increased [2][3]. Key Points on Power Grid - **Investment Growth**: In May 2024, the total investment in power source projects reached 666 billion RMB, a 13.5% increase year-on-year. For the first five months of 2024, the total investment was 2,578 billion RMB, up 7.9% year-on-year [3]. - **Coal Power Capacity**: In the first half of 2024, new approved coal power capacity was 11.36 GW, with new construction capacity at 40.78 GW. In 2023, the approved coal power capacity was 66.03 GW, down 23% year-on-year [3]. - **High Voltage Projects**: The report indicates that 2024-2025 will see a peak in the delivery of power grid equipment, with significant projects like flexible DC high voltage projects expected to commence bidding [3]. - **Material Prices**: Copper prices have significantly decreased, while other raw material prices have remained stable [3]. Investment Recommendations - **Wind Power**: Focus on three areas: 1. Leading companies in tower and pile production with high export potential. 2. Leading submarine cable companies with improving export opportunities. 3. Leading turbine manufacturers with stabilizing domestic profits and accelerating exports [4]. - **Power Grid**: Emphasize four areas: 1. Flexible DC applications enhancing the value of converter stations. 2. Main grid investment orders and deliveries. 3. Export opportunities for power equipment. 4. Upgrading and transforming distribution networks [4]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include significant increases in raw material prices, delays in wind power construction schedules, slower-than-expected approvals for high voltage projects, intensified industry competition, and policy changes [5]. Additional Insights - **Market Performance**: The wind power sector has seen a general decline in stock prices, with specific segments like complete machines and castings experiencing notable drops [2][3]. - **Project Announcements**: Recent announcements include significant offshore wind projects and contracts awarded to major players in the industry, indicating ongoing investment and development in the sector [7][8][9][10]. This comprehensive overview captures the essential developments and trends in the wind power and power grid industries, providing insights into investment opportunities and potential risks.

本周大宗商品市场值得关注的五大图表 ...

Investment Rating - First Quantum Minerals is rated as "Buy" with a 12-month target price of C$25.0/share based on an EV/EBITDA multiple-based valuation [31][45]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural bullishness around copper supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of a market deficit by year-end due to increased mine disruptions and a shift in demand structure towards electrification [12][18]. - Most producers are focusing on reducing project risk through partnerships and joint ventures, while maintaining a growth focus in project development [2][12]. - The long-term incentive price for copper is projected to be between $4.5-5.0/lb, with consensus moving towards the higher end of this range [2][35]. Summary by Company Ero Copper - Ero Copper has a market cap of US$2.1B and is expected to produce 42-47kt of copper in 2024, with a focus on high-quality assets and a capital allocation strategy aimed at maintaining a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.0-1.5x [7][8]. Freeport-McMoran - Freeport-McMoran, with a market cap of US$69B, aims to optimize output from existing assets and maintain a 50% cash flow reinvestment policy for growth [9][11]. Antofagasta - Antofagasta, valued at US$20B, is targeting a production increase to 900ktpa by leveraging organic growth options and has a strong focus on community relationships and cost reduction strategies [12][14]. Codelco - Codelco, a state-owned enterprise, aims to increase production to 1.7mtpa by the end of the decade, with expectations of lower unit costs due to fixed costs and local currency depreciation [15][17]. Teck Resources - Teck Resources, with a market cap of US$33B, is transitioning to a pure-play base metals company and is focused on organic growth in copper production [19][22]. Lundin Mining - Lundin Mining, valued at US$8.2B, is concentrating on copper growth with several organic options across its assets and is exploring strategic partnerships for further development [23][26]. Hudbay Minerals - Hudbay Minerals, with a market cap of US$3.4B, is focused on copper production and is pursuing a joint venture partnership for its Copper World project [27][30]. First Quantum Minerals - First Quantum Minerals, with a market cap of US$10B, is heavily invested in copper, with a focus on reopening Cobre Panama and expanding operations in Zambia [31][32]. Capstone Copper - Capstone Copper, valued at US$5.1B, is optimistic about copper prices due to supply constraints and is planning expansions at its Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos mines [34][35]. Foran Mining - Foran Mining, with a market cap of US$0.8B, emphasizes the uniqueness of its Mcllvenna Bay deposit and aims to overcome challenges in permitting and execution to bring new supply online [36][37].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Focus - The discussion centers around the A-share market, specifically the optical module sector, which has garnered significant attention in recent months [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - Despite a generally weak market performance from January to April of this year, the optical module sector has consistently stood out as a growth opportunity [1]. Additional Important Content - The emphasis on the optical module sector indicates a potential for investment and growth, suggesting that stakeholders should closely monitor developments within this niche [1].