Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the labor market, suggesting potential for 25 basis points rate cuts in the upcoming FOMC meetings [1][2]. Core Insights - The labor market has shown signs of reacceleration, with payrolls increasing by 254,000 and prior months revised up by a cumulative 72,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% [1]. - Average hourly earnings remained strong at 0.4%, indicating robust labor demand and payroll incomes, which are expected to support consumption into the fourth quarter [1][2]. - The report highlights a rebound in the services sector, particularly in retail and professional services, despite ongoing weakness in manufacturing [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Employment Report Summary - Establishment survey payrolls showed a change of 254,000 in September, with an average of 251,000 for 2023 and 267,000 for the first quarter of 2024 [5]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, with a 12-month change of 4.3% [5]. - The unemployment rate averaged 3.6% for 2023, with a slight decrease to 4.1% in September [5]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remained flat, while the employment-population ratio was reported at 60.3% [5]. - The report notes a downward bias in household survey employment estimates, with a significant difference between payroll benchmark revisions and household survey measures [1][5]. - The upcoming payroll report for October may be affected by strikes and hurricane impacts, but these are viewed as temporary interruptions rather than a cooling labor market [1][2].

Good morning. I guess he said stage, so I'll step on the stage. Good morning. Thank you so much for joining us today. I'm Karen Saltzer, as Steve said, CEO of Bloomberg Media, and I'm really delighted to see so many of you here today, so many leaders in government, in business, and you are in for a treat. So UNGA and Climate Week, is an important time for Bloomberg. As I'm sure you know, Michael Bloomberg is Special Envoy for Climate to the UN. Additionally, given the increasing importance of climate change ...

Thank you for joining us for another edition of the EM Edge Global Data Pod. I'm Catherine Marni from the EM Economics team at J.P. Morgan, and I'm joined by Nikolai Alexandru and Stephen Palacio, also from EM Economics. Together, we put together the weekly EM Edge Global Data Watch, which is a weekly publication that covers around 30 EM economies that are covered outside of our flagship Global Data Watch coverage. So guys, it's good to be back on the podcast together. I really wanted to touch on, so we've ...

6 October 2024 | 6:31PM EDT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 US Week Ahead: October 7 - October 13 The key economic data release this week is the CPI report on Thursday. There are many speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including remarks by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Tuesday and Wednesday and by New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday. Monday, October 7 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 01:00 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will spea ...

6 October 2024 | 1:05PM EDT C O M 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 US Economics Analyst Back on Track: Reassessing Labor Market Trends After the Employment Report (Mericle) n The September employment report reset the labor market narrative. Strong September job gains and upward revisions have for now calmed fears that labor demand might be too weak to prevent the unemployment rate from continuing to trend higher. We have lowered our 12-month recession probability by 5pp to the historical unconditional avera ...

6 October 2024 | 3:49PM EDT O M 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 US Election Monitor: October 6 Update (Phillips/Krupa) | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Our US Election Monitor provides periodic updates and data related to the upcoming | Jan Hatzius | | US presidential and ...

4 October 2024 | 10:23AM EDT M 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 USA: Payroll Growth Well Above Expectations and Revised Up in Prior Months; Unemployment Rate Declines to 4.1% | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | ...

Lower interest rates don't guarantee a soft landing. Even though borrowing costs are falling, many businesses might still face a squeeze. By Nick Timmerouse. September 27, 2024. 1203 AM ET. Whether interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve help engineer a soft landing depends only partly on how much weakness is under the hood of the US economy. Success also depends on lower borrowing costs spurring new investment, and spending to counteract any slowdown. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cast last week's half-point ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N Consumer / Industrial Electronics and Precision Sector US investor visit feedback 2025 Extel - Institutional Investor All-Japan Equity Research Survey We visited North American institutional investors from September 16 to September 20. Compared with our past two visits (October 2023 and April 2024), we felt interest in the Japanese electronics sector was fairly settled amid concerns about the adjustment in semiconductor-related stocks and the ri ...

证券研究报告 房地产 海外：降息预期下，如何展望美国住 宅市场？ 华泰研究 2024 年 8 月 18 日│中国内地 专题研究 降息预期下，美国住宅市场供需结构有望改善 展望 24H2，我们认为：1、如果后续美国降息落地，则有望对当前成屋供需 结构形成改善，但仍需要关注降息的节奏和幅度；2、美国经济增速放缓预 期叠加成交特点的变化，我们预计高企的房价可能松动；3、美国新屋和成 屋的价差收窄，叠加房企主动调整供应结构，有助于下半年新屋销量改善； 4、后续美联储降息如期落地，我们预计美国住宅市场有望从"量跌价涨" 向"价稳量涨"切换，这将利好我国地产相关出口产业链。当然，还得关注 其他风险，如关税政策、美国衰退超预期等。 销售&房价：总成交有所下降，成屋价格创新高 上半年，在高房价和高利率的共同作用下，购房需求受到一定压制，新屋和 成屋销量均有所下滑。分区域来看，新屋销售有所分化，中西部的新屋复苏 相对领先，而各区域的成屋均量跌价涨。房价方面，新屋和成屋价格均处于 相对高位，其中成屋中位价 5-6 月连续两月创历史新高，但边际来看，美国 房价的上涨速度自 2 月以来已开始放缓。此外，在房价高位运行的背景下， 美国 ...