shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 12 November 2024 | 7:47PM HKT shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Cathy Chen, CFA +852-2978-6621 | kaiqi.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hanseong Kweon +82(2)3788-1059 | hanseong.kweon@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch Mia Gu +852-2978-6973 | mia.gu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 China/Korea Cosmetics Global cosmetics ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Staples, specifically focusing on the Pet Food sector - **Companies Discussed**: Gambol, China Pet Foods, Petpal Core Insights 1. **Sales Performance During Double 11**: - Gambol's Fragate and China Pet Foods' Toptrees exceeded expectations with Toptrees achieving triple-digit year-over-year growth. Wanpy and Zeal are projected to grow by 35% and 50% year-over-year in Q4, respectively, compared to 20% and 40-50% in Q3 [2][2][2]. - Total sales across platforms reached RMB 670 million, marking a 65% year-over-year increase, surpassing the expected 32% growth for Q4 [2][2][2]. 2. **Product Mix and Pricing Strategy**: - Gambol is seeing a favorable product mix with mid-to-high-end brands like Toptrees and Meatyway showing strong sales growth. The company is maintaining disciplined discounting strategies [2][2][2]. - China Pet Foods aims to enhance its gross profit margin (GPM) from 37% in 1H24 to 40-45% through a higher direct-to-consumer (DTC) mix and staple food contributions [2][2][2]. 3. **Market Share and Growth Targets**: - Gambol has already met its annual profit targets by Q3 2024 but is still working towards its sales target, with a projected sales growth of at least 22% for Q4 [22][22]. - China Pet Foods expects domestic sales to reach approximately RMB 1.4 billion in 2024, with Wanpy projected to achieve over 35% growth in Q4 [28][28]. 4. **Tariff Impact and Supply Chain Resilience**: - Companies expressed confidence in their ability to pass through costs to clients during tariff hikes, with major clients showing resilience to price increases [2][2][2]. - China Pet Foods is expanding its production capacity in Canada and the U.S. to support supply chain relocation, with new factories expected to commence operations by late 2025 and early 2026 [2][2][2]. 5. **Profitability and Expense Management**: - Gambol anticipates stable selling expenses ratios in the near term, focusing on market share growth without significant volatility [22][22]. - China Pet Foods plans to invest 30-35% of sales in selling expenses, up from 27% previously, to support growth while targeting a GPM of over 40% [28][28]. Additional Insights - **Brand Performance**: Myfoodie and Fregate brands are performing exceptionally well, with Fregate accounting for 30% of shopping festival sales, up from 18% the previous year [2][2][2]. - **Long-term Industry Trends**: The pet food industry is experiencing consolidation, with fewer new entrants expected in 2024 [27][27]. - **Future Product Launches**: Gambol plans to launch new products in 1Q25, including baked food for the Health Guard brand, aimed at a more value-for-money positioning [41][41]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted strong sales performance during the Double 11 shopping festival, a focus on product mix and pricing strategies, and confidence in achieving growth targets despite potential tariff impacts. Companies are strategically investing in their brands and expanding production capabilities to enhance profitability and market share in the competitive pet food industry.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： M Update November 10, 2024 08:41 PM GMT | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Key Takeaways Industry or Company Involved - The document focuses on the Chinese equity market, specifically analyzing the earnings season for the third quarter of 2024. Core Points and Arguments - **Earnings Misses**: The document highlights that the third quarter earnings season for Chinese equities missed consensus expectations. This is the 13th consecutive quarterly earnings miss, marking the longest streak since 2018. - **Sector Performance**: Most sectors missed expectations, with Energy, Industrials, IT, and Materials experiencing double misses. Financials was the only sector to beat expectations. - **Revenue Misses**: Revenue also missed consensus expectations, with Energy and Healthcare experiencing double misses. Consumer Staples, Industrials, and IT missed by one measure. - **Downward Revisions**: The document expects further downward revisions to consensus earnings estimates due to the continued misses and subdued macroeconomic conditions. - **Earnings Growth Forecasts**: Morgan Stanley's new earnings growth forecasts for MSCI China are 7% and 11% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, compared to consensus at 15% for 2024 and 11% for 2025. Other Important Points - **A-shares**: A-shares showed a worse result pattern compared to MSCI China, with a higher number of companies missing earnings expectations. - **Geopolitical Uncertainties**: The document mentions lingering deflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainties as factors contributing to the earnings misses. - **Policy Clarity**: The document emphasizes the need for more policy clarity to alleviate the current economic challenges. References - [11] - [12] - [13] - [14] - [40] - [41] - [42] - [43] - [44] - [45] - [46] - [47] - [48] - [49] - [50] - [51] - [52] - [53] - [54] - [55] - [56] - [57] - [58] - [59] - [60] - [61] - [62] - [63] - [64] - [65] - [66] - [67] - [68] - [69] - [70] - [71] - [72] - [73] - [74] - [75] - [76] - [77] - [78] - [79] - [80] - [81] - [82] - [83] - [84] - [85] - [86] - [87] - [88] - [89] - [90] - [91] - [92] - [93] - [94] - [95] - [96] - [97] - [98] - [99] - [100] - [101] - [102] - [103] - [104] - [105] - [106] - [107] - [108] - [109] - [110] - [111] - [112] - [113] - [114] - [115] - [116] - [117] - [118] - [119] - [120] - [121] - [122] - [123] - [124] - [125] - [126] - [127] - [128] - [129] - [130] - [131] - [132] - [133] - [134] - [135] - [136] - [137] - [138] - [139] - [140] - [141] - [142] - [143] - [144] - [145] - [146] - [147] - [148] - [149] - [150] - [151] - [152] - [153] - [154] - [155] - [156] - [157] - [158] - [159] - [160] - [161] - [162] - [163] - [164] - [165] - [166] - [167] - [168] - [169] - [170] - [171] - [172] - [173] - [174] - [175] - [176] - [177] - [178] - [179] - [180] - [181] - [182] - [183] - [184] - [185] - [186] - [187] - [188] - [189] - [190] - [191] - [192] - [193] - [194] - [195] - [196] - [197] - [198] - [199] - [200] - [201] - [202] - [203] - [204] - [205] - [206] - [207] - [208] - [209] - [210] - [211] - [212] - [213] - [214] - [215] - [216] - [217] - [218] - [219] - [220] - [221] - [222] - [223] - [224] - [225] - [226] - [227] - [228] - [229] - [230] - [231] - [232] - [233] - [234] - [235] - [236] - [237] - [238] - [239] - [240] - [241] - [242] - [243] - [244] - [245] - [246] - [247] - [248] - [249] - [250] - [251] - [252] - [253] - [254] - [255] - [256] - [257] - [258] - [259] - [260] - [261] - [262] - [263] - [264] - [265] - [266] - [267] - [268] - [269] - [270] - [271] - [272] - [273] - [274] - [275] - [276] - [277] - [278] - [279] - [280] - [281] - [282] - [283] - [284] - [285] - [286] - [287] - [288] - [289] - [290] - [291] - [292] - [293] - [294] - [295] - [296] - [297] - [298] - [299] - [300] - [301] - [302] - [303] - [304] - [305] - [306] - [307] - [308] - [309] - [310] - [311] - [312] - [313] - [314] - [315] - [316] - [317] - [318] - [319] - [320] - [321] - [322] - [323]

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 10 Nov 2024 17:18:01 ET │ 11 pages Zijin Mining (2899.HK) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Unit Cost Largely Stable or Slightly Higher YoY in 2025E shuinu9870 CITI'S TAKE We hosted 2024 Citi China Conference and met with Zijin on Nov 7. Ms. Zhang Yan, Company Secretary, and Ms. Wu Yan, ESG M ...

Flash | Buy Price (05 Nov 24 15:00) Rmb33.960 Target price Rmb38.300 Expected share price return 12.8% Expected dividend yield 1.7% Expected total return 14.5% Market Cap Rmb57,637M US$8,118M 05 Nov 2024 10:21:53 ET │ 10 pages Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SS) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Lower Lithium Cost with Lithium Sulfate Plant in 3Q25E CITI'S TAKE We hosted 2024 Citi China Conference and met with Huayou on Nov 5. Ms. Chen Chen, Securities Affairs Director, attended the meeting. The to ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Coal Imports Industry Overview - The report focuses on the coal industry, specifically China's coal imports and production dynamics in 2024 and beyond [2][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **China's Coal Imports**: - China has experienced a year-over-year increase in coal imports, with thermal coal imports surprising to the upside since Q4 2023, driven by energy security policies and inventory targets [3][24]. - The forecast for China thermal coal imports has been upgraded to 400 million tons (mt) for 2024, surpassing the record-high levels of 2023 [5][24]. 2. **Inventory Dynamics**: - China's total coal inventory has more than tripled from 2021 to 2023, reaching approximately 600 mt year-to-date, with an annual average increase of 176 mt/year [8][25]. - Despite the significant inventory buildup, China's coal inventories remain low compared to consumption, with only 39 days of coal inventory at the end of 2023, compared to 78 days for natural gas in Europe [9][12]. 3. **Production Challenges**: - Stricter safety and pollution checks from November 2023 to May 2024 led to a decrease in coal production for the first time since 2018, with a significant drop of 54 mt in production during this period [4][17]. - Production has since recovered, and it is expected to continue growing into 2025, with an annual growth of approximately 100 mt in 2024 [19][24]. 4. **Price Forecasts**: - The report upgrades the forecasts for Newcastle and API2 coal prices by approximately $20 and $5 per ton, respectively, due to the increase in expected China coal imports [6][37]. - The new price forecasts are set at $140/125 per ton for Newcastle and $120/105 per ton for API2 for 2024Q4/2025A [6][37]. 5. **Global Market Impact**: - The increase in China’s coal imports has been partially offset by stronger-than-expected coal supply from Indonesia and weaker demand from developed markets (DM) [6][36]. - The report anticipates that DM coal demand weakness will continue, driven by a transition to renewable energy and lower natural gas prices, which may lead to a decline in global thermal coal imports after 2023 [36]. Additional Important Insights - **Energy Security Policies**: - China's energy security remains a top priority, influencing the push for higher coal inventory levels, although the pace of inventory buildup is expected to slow down due to already high storage levels [12][13]. - The National Coal Production Capacity Reserve initiative aims for a production capacity of 300 mt per annum by 2030, which may support a slower pace of inventory buildup [14]. - **Accident and Safety Concerns**: - There has been a concerning increase in coal mine casualties, which more than doubled from 2021 to 2023, highlighting ongoing safety issues in the coal production sector [20]. - **Future Outlook**: - The report suggests that while there are balanced risks to the upgraded forecasts, potential policy changes in China could lead to a re-acceleration of inventory buildup, maintaining high import levels [31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry, particularly focusing on China's coal imports, production challenges, and market dynamics.

Summary of Xinyi Solar (0968.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xinyi Solar (0968.HK) - **Date of Conference**: 06 November 2024 - **Market Capitalization**: HK$35,134 million (US$4,520 million) [3] Key Industry Insights - **Solar Glass Sector**: Xinyi Solar is currently experiencing losses in solar glass sales due to low prices, with profitability expected to decline further due to rising winter gas prices [2][4] - **Production Capacity**: The solar glass sector needs to reduce production capacity by 10% from the current level of 112,950 tons/day to achieve supply-demand balance [5] - **Inventory Management**: Xinyi Solar's inventory period is below 30 days, which is 10 days shorter than the industry average, indicating effective inventory management [4] Financial Performance - **Gross Profit Margins**: Some production lines are marginally break-even, with a unit sale price of Rmb12/m² for 2.0mm solar glass. Over 50% of solar glass companies are currently facing cash losses [4] - **Projected Earnings**: - 2022 Net Profit: HK$3,820 million - 2023 Net Profit: HK$4,187 million - 2024E Net Profit: HK$2,694 million (down 35.7% YoY) - 2025E Net Profit: HK$2,436 million (down 9.6% YoY) [6] Market Outlook - **Price Recovery**: Management believes that solar glass prices may recover starting March 2025, coinciding with the next peak demand season for solar installations [4] - **Demand Dynamics**: The company does not anticipate any supply control policies on solar glass, suggesting that market mechanisms will dictate re-balancing [11] Risks and Challenges - **Cost Pressures**: Difficulty in passing on higher natural gas costs to customers due to high inventory pressure, although the cost increase may be smaller than the previous year [4] - **Credit Risk**: Xinyi Solar has an average accounts receivable collection period of 3-4 months, which is manageable given that most sales are to tier 1 module companies with limited credit risks [12] Valuation and Investment Perspective - **Target Price**: The target price for Xinyi Solar is set at HK$3.60, reflecting a cautious outlook on profitability [2][17] - **Expected Returns**: The expected share price return is -7.0%, with an expected total return of -3.2% [3] Additional Insights - **Polysilicon Plant**: The polysilicon plant with an annual capacity of 60,000 tons is undergoing safety tests, with no determined start time due to competitive market conditions [13] - **Solar Farm Capacity**: Xinyi Solar added 300MW of solar farms in 1H24 and has no target for 2H24E, a significant reduction from previous years [14] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of Xinyi Solar's current situation, market dynamics, and financial outlook.

Summary of Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls - **Ticker**: 002050.SZ - **Industry**: Auto Parts, Refrigeration, Robotics Key Points Financial Performance - The company secured **Rmb21 billion** in new orders during the first nine months of 2024, with a total order backlog of **Rmb120 billion** [4] - Estimated revenues are projected at **Rmb14 billion** for FY2024, **Rmb20 billion** for 2025, and **Rmb25 billion** for 2026 based on the order backlog [4] - Revenue from key customers: US NEV leader (30-40% of 9M24 revenue), BYD (10%), and Huawei (single-digit percentage) [4] - Revenue from BYD decreased due to a shift towards PHEVs, which have lower dollar content compared to BEVs [4] - Margins are expected to remain stable at **27-28%**, with limited room for improvement due to customer pressure [4] Market Dynamics - The dollar content for a BEV is **Rmb7000-8000** per vehicle, significantly higher than PHEV and ICE vehicles [3] - 70% of NEV models globally utilize some Sanhua HVAC components, although dollar content varies by model [11] - The company has a strong presence in the home appliance sector, with **Midea** and **Haier** accounting for 70% of revenue in that segment [13] Robotics and New Ventures - Sanhua has acquired a **16-acre** land in Hangzhou for its robotics business, with a dedicated R&D team of **100 engineers** [12] - The Optimus robot is expected to enter mass production in **1H25E** [12] Refrigeration Segment - The commercial refrigeration segment is experiencing strong orders due to the transition to new refrigerant standards, although it remains a smaller portion of total revenue compared to home appliances [13] Geopolitical and Economic Risks - **20%** of revenue comes from USD-denominated orders, exposing the company to currency and geopolitical risks [14] - Customers typically bear cost inflation for short periods, but there are instances where costs are shared [14] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The target price for Sanhua is set at **Rmb30.0**, representing a potential upside of **30.7%** from the current price of **Rmb22.950** [6] - The investment rating is **Buy**, supported by strong market share in home appliance refrigeration parts and expected growth in auto parts [18] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside risks** include a slowdown in China's economy, escalating trade disputes, and failure to gain market share [20] - **Upside risks** involve accelerated economic recovery and improved consumption leading to higher-than-expected growth [21] Financial Metrics - **2022 Net Profit**: Rmb2,573 million - **2023 Net Profit**: Rmb2,921 million - **2024E Net Profit**: Rmb3,122 million - **2025E Net Profit**: Rmb3,645 million [4] Conclusion Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls is positioned for growth in the auto parts and refrigeration sectors, with a strong order backlog and strategic investments in robotics. However, it faces challenges from market dynamics and geopolitical risks that could impact its performance.

Flash | 05 Nov 2024 12:01:57 ET │ 10 pages ZTE (0763.HK) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Business Update | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...