更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 FICC Research Economics 22 November 2024 Completed: 22-Nov-24, 09:28 GMT Released: 22-Nov-24, 22:49 GMT Restricted - External China Outlook A shallow recovery in Q4 In view of improved data and announced policy support, we expect a mild recovery in Q4 growth momentum. We maintain our below-consensus 4% growth forecast for 2025 on structural headwinds, looming tariff hikes, and absence of DM-like demand-side stimulus. We note LG debt resolution has accelerated. Local-government d ...

J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research 18 November 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. The Metal Monitor China scraps the export tax rebate for aluminum and copper products; week recap & ahead | --- | --- | |-------------------------------- ...

November 18, 2024 01:00 AM GMT M Update | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

18 November 2024 | 12:23AM HKT Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Si Fu, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Kevin Wang, CFA +852-2978-2446 | kevin.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 China 2025 Equity Outlook: Policy showtime Explore > A policy-managed growth deceleration, and economic rotation GDP growth will decelera ...

Key Takeaways from Citi 2024 China Investor Conference and Tech Tours Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Technology and Communication sector in China, including semiconductor, automotive, telecommunications, and software industries Core Insights 1. **Apple Supply Chain**: Positive outlook for the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle, with several components seeing upgrades such as microphones and casing [2][3] 2. **Panel Market**: Large-sized TV panels are currently undersupplied, leading to opportunities for panel makers. The industry utilization rate (UTR) is expected to remain above seasonal levels [2][3][9] 3. **Automotive Growth**: The automotive supply chain anticipates double-digit growth in 2025, driven by increased content and specific customer demands [2][3][10] 4. **AI and XR Products**: AI-driven products, particularly in the XR space, are expected to create new demand, with companies investing heavily in AR glasses and AI capabilities [2][11] 5. **Semiconductor Trends**: Advanced packaging (AP) is becoming increasingly important for China's semiconductor industry, with OSAT capacity utilization rates improving [4][14] 6. **Tariff Impact**: Limited direct impacts from potential tariff hikes on the supply chain, as many companies have overseas facilities [5][35] Financial Performance and Projections 1. **Smartphone ASP and Margins**: Average selling prices (ASP) for smartphones rose by 30% YoY, with margins expected to improve due to a shift towards premium products [8] 2. **Panel Makers' Profitability**: TCL expects net profits of Rmb5 billion in 2024, with projections for Rmb8-10 billion in 2025, driven by better TV panel pricing and demand [22] 3. **Lens Technology**: Anticipates 30% YoY growth in automotive business for 2024, supported by strong demand from major customers [10][32] 4. **Victory Giant Tech**: Expects AI revenue to double or triple in 2025 compared to 2024, with a significant share in mainstream AI servers [23][13] Sector-Specific Insights Telecommunications - **China Mobile**: Targets revenue growth in 2H24, with a focus on projects with better profitability. Capex is expected to be lower than full-year targets [15] - **Optical Communication**: Innolight sees upside risks in 800G demand, with expectations for further growth in 1.6T demand by 2026 [16] Software and IT Services - **Kingdee**: Maintains breakeven and operating cash flow targets for 2025, with a focus on AI applications driving growth [6][17] - **TravelSky**: Expects net profit growth to outpace revenue growth, with a gradual recovery in profitability [20] Semiconductor - **Chroma ATE**: Positive outlook for metrology foundry qualifications, with expectations for YoY growth in 2025 [14] - **Will Semi**: Stable shipment expectations for Android smartphones, with potential volume upside due to consumer electronics stimulus measures [41] Additional Considerations - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Companies are diversifying supply chains and adjusting production capacities in response to geopolitical concerns and tariff implications [10][25][30] - **Investment in AI**: Companies across various sectors are increasingly investing in AI capabilities, with expectations for significant revenue growth from AI applications in the near future [19][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the Citi 2024 China Investor Conference and Tech Tours, highlighting the positive trends and growth opportunities across various sectors within the technology and communication industry.

Summary of China Resources Sanjiu (000999.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Sanjiu (CR999) - **Industry**: Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and pharmaceutical sector Key Financial Performance - **3Q24 Revenue**: Rmb5,634 million, representing a 3% year-over-year increase [1] - **3Q24 Net Profit**: Rmb561 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, or a 7% decrease when excluding one-off items [1] - **Gross Margin**: Slight decline to 50.5% from 50.8% in 3Q23 [1] - **Net Margin**: Increased to 10.0% from 9.6% in 3Q23 [1] - **KPC Revenue**: Rmb1.9 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase [1] - **KPC Net Profit**: Rmb158 million, a 3% year-over-year decrease [1] Management Insights - **Cost Management**: Management expects a decrease in selling cost ratio, with SG&A and R&D expense ratio decreasing to 35.4% from 36.7% in 3Q23 [1] - **Acquisition Update**: The acquisition of Tasly is expected to be completed in 1Q25 [1] Segment Performance - **Cold Medicines**: Achieved management's full-year target by 3Q24 [2] - **Prescription Drugs**: Stable growth observed in 3Q24 [2] - **TCM Granules**: Sales showed steady growth in 3Q24 [2] - **TCM Decoction**: Business optimization is ongoing [2] TCM GPO Update - **Anhui TCM GPO**: Announced to conduct TCM GPO in 2024, impacting OTC drugs with minimal sales for CR999 [3] - **Hubei TCM GPO**: Related products include brucea javanica seed oil, which is not a key product for CR999 [3] KPC Performance - **Manufacturing Revenue**: Slight decline in 9M24 [4] - **Distribution Revenue**: Improved by more than 5% year-over-year [4] - **Sales Recovery Expectation**: Management expects sales recovery for Xuesaitong injection in 2025 [4] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Buy rating maintained for CR Sanjiu [5] - **Target Price**: Rmb52, based on a DCF model [5] - **Market Cap**: Rmb61,775 million (approximately US$8,545 million) [7] Risks - **Sales Growth Risks**: Slower-than-expected growth in great health sales and TCM granules [19] - **Cost Risks**: Higher costs of TCM herbs could negatively affect gross margins [19] - **KPC Consolidation Risks**: Potential challenges in the consolidation of KPC [19] Valuation Metrics - **2024E Net Profit**: Rmb3,337 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb2.598 [6] - **2025E Net Profit**: Rmb3,790 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb2.950 [6] - **2026E Net Profit**: Rmb4,305 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb3.351 [6] Conclusion - China Resources Sanjiu shows mild growth in 3Q24 with stable performance across its segments. The management's focus on cost reduction and the upcoming acquisition of Tasly are expected to support future growth. However, potential risks related to sales growth and cost pressures remain significant considerations for investors.

15 Nov 2024 15:02:39 ET │ 9 pages Metal Matters China export tax rebate removal for copper and aluminum semis bigger | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------- ...

15 November 2024 | 6:52PM HKT China: SAFE data suggest modest FX inflows in October | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Bottom line: Our preferred FX flow measure shows modest FX inflows of US$5bn in October | Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 \| xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sach ...

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shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Asia Pacific Economic Research 11 November 2024 J P M O R G A N China: Deflation continued despite pickup in activity shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： • October CPI moderated to 0.3%oya on a 0.1%m/m sa decline. Food prices fell 0.8%m/m sa in October, with falling pork prices (-3. ...