shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： M Update November 10, 2024 08:41 PM GMT | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 10 Nov 2024 17:18:01 ET │ 11 pages Zijin Mining (2899.HK) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Unit Cost Largely Stable or Slightly Higher YoY in 2025E shuinu9870 CITI'S TAKE We hosted 2024 Citi China Conference and met with Zijin on Nov 7. Ms. Zhang Yan, Company Secretary, and Ms. Wu Yan, ESG M ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Coal Imports Industry Overview - The report focuses on the coal industry, specifically China's coal imports and production dynamics in 2024 and beyond [2][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **China's Coal Imports**: - China has experienced a year-over-year increase in coal imports, with thermal coal imports surprising to the upside since Q4 2023, driven by energy security policies and inventory targets [3][24]. - The forecast for China thermal coal imports has been upgraded to 400 million tons (mt) for 2024, surpassing the record-high levels of 2023 [5][24]. 2. **Inventory Dynamics**: - China's total coal inventory has more than tripled from 2021 to 2023, reaching approximately 600 mt year-to-date, with an annual average increase of 176 mt/year [8][25]. - Despite the significant inventory buildup, China's coal inventories remain low compared to consumption, with only 39 days of coal inventory at the end of 2023, compared to 78 days for natural gas in Europe [9][12]. 3. **Production Challenges**: - Stricter safety and pollution checks from November 2023 to May 2024 led to a decrease in coal production for the first time since 2018, with a significant drop of 54 mt in production during this period [4][17]. - Production has since recovered, and it is expected to continue growing into 2025, with an annual growth of approximately 100 mt in 2024 [19][24]. 4. **Price Forecasts**: - The report upgrades the forecasts for Newcastle and API2 coal prices by approximately $20 and $5 per ton, respectively, due to the increase in expected China coal imports [6][37]. - The new price forecasts are set at $140/125 per ton for Newcastle and $120/105 per ton for API2 for 2024Q4/2025A [6][37]. 5. **Global Market Impact**: - The increase in China’s coal imports has been partially offset by stronger-than-expected coal supply from Indonesia and weaker demand from developed markets (DM) [6][36]. - The report anticipates that DM coal demand weakness will continue, driven by a transition to renewable energy and lower natural gas prices, which may lead to a decline in global thermal coal imports after 2023 [36]. Additional Important Insights - **Energy Security Policies**: - China's energy security remains a top priority, influencing the push for higher coal inventory levels, although the pace of inventory buildup is expected to slow down due to already high storage levels [12][13]. - The National Coal Production Capacity Reserve initiative aims for a production capacity of 300 mt per annum by 2030, which may support a slower pace of inventory buildup [14]. - **Accident and Safety Concerns**: - There has been a concerning increase in coal mine casualties, which more than doubled from 2021 to 2023, highlighting ongoing safety issues in the coal production sector [20]. - **Future Outlook**: - The report suggests that while there are balanced risks to the upgraded forecasts, potential policy changes in China could lead to a re-acceleration of inventory buildup, maintaining high import levels [31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry, particularly focusing on China's coal imports, production challenges, and market dynamics.

Flash | Buy Price (05 Nov 24 15:00) Rmb33.960 Target price Rmb38.300 Expected share price return 12.8% Expected dividend yield 1.7% Expected total return 14.5% Market Cap Rmb57,637M US$8,118M 05 Nov 2024 10:21:53 ET │ 10 pages Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SS) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Lower Lithium Cost with Lithium Sulfate Plant in 3Q25E CITI'S TAKE We hosted 2024 Citi China Conference and met with Huayou on Nov 5. Ms. Chen Chen, Securities Affairs Director, attended the meeting. The to ...

06 Nov 2024 07:26:51 ET │ 9 pages China Economics Macro Implications of the US Election CITI'S TAKE Following former President Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, as projected by multiple major US media outlets, we discuss: [1] potential impact from possible 60% tariff; [2] China's potential responses; and [3] the ongoing NPC Standing Committee meeting. | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------| | | | | Xiangrong Yu AC +852-2501-2754 | | See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certif ...

V i e w p o i n t | 05 Nov 2024 09:49:28 ET │ 12 pages Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Impact of PHEV Mix Spike and Update on US Refrigerant Switch CITI'S TAKE We hosted a range of investor update meetings with Sanhua management at Citi China Conference on 5th Nov. Here are the key takeaways. Auto parts Dollar content for a BEV is Rmb7000-8000/vehicle, a stark contrast to the dollar content of PHEV and ICE (merely a few hundred Rmb). The company w ...

Flash | 05 Nov 2024 12:01:57 ET │ 10 pages ZTE (0763.HK) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Business Update | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

05 Nov 2024 12:36:05 ET │ 11 pages Flash | Xinyi Solar (0968.HK) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Loss on Solar Glass to Persist in Next 5 Months CITI'S TAKE We met with the CFO of Xinyi Solar ("XYS") at Citi China Conference today. Key takeaways include: (i) XYS is loss-making from solar glass sales at current prices and its profitability could further deteriorate with winter gas price hike; (ii) solar glass price is unlikely to increase in near term during off-season of solar demand; (iii) sola ...

Flash | CITI'S TAKE Mindray's IR Specialist, Aaron Qian, and IR Manager, Selena Yang, attended the 2024 Citi China Conference on November 7. They answered questions regarding the impact from potential US tariff shifts and 4Q24/FY25E guidance. Below, we summarize the key takeaways. Buy Price (07 Nov 24 15:00) Rmb281.190 Target price Rmb385.000 Expected share price return 36.9% Expected dividend yield 2.4% Expected total return 39.3% Market Cap Rmb340,926M US$47,494M 07 Nov 2024 11:12:14 ET │ 10 pages Shenzhe ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Transportation: Airlines Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese airline industry, particularly the performance and outlook for major airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][4][46]. Key Insights and Core Arguments 1. **Airfare Trends**: - A significant decline in domestic airfare is expected, with a forecasted drop of -15% YoY in 4Q24, bringing airfares to only 80% of 2019 levels post National Day holiday [2][4]. - The weak performance in airfares is attributed to seasonality, weak business travel, and oversupply in the domestic market [2][4]. 2. **Passenger Traffic Growth**: - Domestic passenger traffic is projected to grow by 11% YoY in 2024, reaching 113% of 2019 levels, with a further 6% growth expected in 2025 [3][4]. - International passenger traffic is forecasted to recover to 95% of 2019 levels in 4Q24, with a full-year estimate of 87% [5][6]. 3. **Cost Management**: - Most Chinese airlines have successfully reduced unit costs in 3Q23, with Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines showing reductions of -2%, -6%, and -1% YoY respectively [7]. - Spring Airlines demonstrated strong cost control with a non-fuel unit cost reduction of -2% compared to 2019 [7]. 4. **Policy Impact**: - Policy stimulus is expected to improve market sentiment and potentially boost business travel demand [2]. - The removal of restrictions on China-Canada flights by the Canadian government is anticipated to alleviate domestic oversupply and benefit airlines like Air China [6]. 5. **Profitability Outlook**: - The forecast for airline profitability is mixed, with Air China expected to benefit from business travel improvements, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines face challenges [2][8]. - Revised net earnings forecasts for 2024-26 show a significant reduction for Air China and China Eastern Airlines, with Air China’s net earnings revised down by -98% for 2024 [8]. Additional Important Points 1. **Exchange Rate Risks**: - Fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate could impact earnings, with Air China and China Southern Airlines reporting significant FX gains in 3Q24 [7]. - Spring Airlines has a relatively neutral exposure to FX risks, which may provide a competitive advantage [7]. 2. **Valuation and Target Prices**: - Target prices for major airlines have been adjusted, with Air China (A/H) set at Rmb7.1/HKD5.5, China Eastern Airlines (A/H) at Rmb4.3/HKD3.0, and Spring Airlines at Rmb64.5 [8][44][52][55]. - The valuation methodologies for these airlines are based on P/B ratios, reflecting their expected recovery and market conditions [44][48][52][55]. 3. **Investment Ratings**: - Air China is rated as a Buy, while China Southern Airlines is rated as Sell for its A shares and Neutral for its H shares [50][54][57]. - Spring Airlines is viewed positively due to its growth potential and cost advantages in the low-cost carrier segment [47]. 4. **Risks to Forecasts**: - Key risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, slower-than-expected recovery in travel demand, and potential tariff hikes affecting profitability [46][50][54][57]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Chinese airline industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both opportunities and challenges faced by the sector.