06 Nov 2024 07:26:51 ET │ 9 pages China Economics Macro Implications of the US Election CITI'S TAKE Following former President Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, as projected by multiple major US media outlets, we discuss: [1] potential impact from possible 60% tariff; [2] China's potential responses; and [3] the ongoing NPC Standing Committee meeting. | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------| | | | | Xiangrong Yu AC +852-2501-2754 | | See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certif ...

07 Nov 2024 09:01:18 ET │ 9 pages Global Flights Tracker Global flights down: China and Europe flat, US falls | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Transportation: Airlines Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese airline industry, particularly the performance and outlook for major airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][4][46]. Key Insights and Core Arguments 1. **Airfare Trends**: - A significant decline in domestic airfare is expected, with a forecasted drop of -15% YoY in 4Q24, bringing airfares to only 80% of 2019 levels post National Day holiday [2][4]. - The weak performance in airfares is attributed to seasonality, weak business travel, and oversupply in the domestic market [2][4]. 2. **Passenger Traffic Growth**: - Domestic passenger traffic is projected to grow by 11% YoY in 2024, reaching 113% of 2019 levels, with a further 6% growth expected in 2025 [3][4]. - International passenger traffic is forecasted to recover to 95% of 2019 levels in 4Q24, with a full-year estimate of 87% [5][6]. 3. **Cost Management**: - Most Chinese airlines have successfully reduced unit costs in 3Q23, with Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines showing reductions of -2%, -6%, and -1% YoY respectively [7]. - Spring Airlines demonstrated strong cost control with a non-fuel unit cost reduction of -2% compared to 2019 [7]. 4. **Policy Impact**: - Policy stimulus is expected to improve market sentiment and potentially boost business travel demand [2]. - The removal of restrictions on China-Canada flights by the Canadian government is anticipated to alleviate domestic oversupply and benefit airlines like Air China [6]. 5. **Profitability Outlook**: - The forecast for airline profitability is mixed, with Air China expected to benefit from business travel improvements, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines face challenges [2][8]. - Revised net earnings forecasts for 2024-26 show a significant reduction for Air China and China Eastern Airlines, with Air China’s net earnings revised down by -98% for 2024 [8]. Additional Important Points 1. **Exchange Rate Risks**: - Fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate could impact earnings, with Air China and China Southern Airlines reporting significant FX gains in 3Q24 [7]. - Spring Airlines has a relatively neutral exposure to FX risks, which may provide a competitive advantage [7]. 2. **Valuation and Target Prices**: - Target prices for major airlines have been adjusted, with Air China (A/H) set at Rmb7.1/HKD5.5, China Eastern Airlines (A/H) at Rmb4.3/HKD3.0, and Spring Airlines at Rmb64.5 [8][44][52][55]. - The valuation methodologies for these airlines are based on P/B ratios, reflecting their expected recovery and market conditions [44][48][52][55]. 3. **Investment Ratings**: - Air China is rated as a Buy, while China Southern Airlines is rated as Sell for its A shares and Neutral for its H shares [50][54][57]. - Spring Airlines is viewed positively due to its growth potential and cost advantages in the low-cost carrier segment [47]. 4. **Risks to Forecasts**: - Key risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, slower-than-expected recovery in travel demand, and potential tariff hikes affecting profitability [46][50][54][57]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Chinese airline industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both opportunities and challenges faced by the sector.

Flash | CITI'S TAKE Mindray's IR Specialist, Aaron Qian, and IR Manager, Selena Yang, attended the 2024 Citi China Conference on November 7. They answered questions regarding the impact from potential US tariff shifts and 4Q24/FY25E guidance. Below, we summarize the key takeaways. Buy Price (07 Nov 24 15:00) Rmb281.190 Target price Rmb385.000 Expected share price return 36.9% Expected dividend yield 2.4% Expected total return 39.3% Market Cap Rmb340,926M US$47,494M 07 Nov 2024 11:12:14 ET │ 10 pages Shenzhe ...

Flash | CITI'S TAKE CTG Duty Free attended Citi's China Conference. The decline in Hainan duty free sales has tended to narrow recently, but has yet to see material improvement. Short-term pressure remains amid weak consumption sentiment. Increased promotion is expected in peak season to drive top line, which is likely to pressure the gross margin in 4Q24E. Inventory remains at healthy level. Buy Price (06 Nov 24 15:00) Rmb72.650 Target price Rmb79.000 Expected share price return 8.7% Expected dividend yiel ...

06 Nov 2024 07:38:57 ET │ 15 pages Global Macro Strategy What to Chase? CITI'S TAKE In line with market sentiment, former president Trump has been re-elected. Republicans are likely controlling the Senate and have the odds for controlling the House in their favor. While residual positioning in markets is likely pro-Trump already, we add some Trump trades, given that there likely has been recent position-squaring. In equities, we remain long SPX, and add a SPX/EuroStoxx trade on tariff threats. In rates, the ...

Key Findings **Industry Overview** * The overall consumption sector in China continued to see weakness in 3Q24, with average yoy sales growth of 5% for Goldman Sachs' consumer coverage, compared to 5%/14% in 2Q/1Q24. * The softness was evident across various categories, including spirits, sportswear, catering, durables, jewelry, and prepared food. * Online sales outperformed offline, and overseas markets remained a bright spot for certain categories like home durables, apparel & footwear OEMs, pet food, and IP retailers. * Consumers remained value-focused, with deflation pressure persisting, particularly in sportswear and prepared food. **Key Points** * **3Q24 Results**: The overall consumer sector saw a slowdown in growth, with average yoy sales growth of 5% for Goldman Sachs' consumer coverage. Categories like spirits, sportswear, catering, durables, jewelry, and prepared food experienced growth deterioration. However, categories with overseas support, such as home durables, apparel & footwear OEMs, pet food, and IP retailers, had more resilient performance. * **Online vs. Offline**: Online sales continued to outperform offline, with the online channel experiencing slight improvement in 3Q24. Offline channels faced challenges, particularly for companies with a higher offline skew, such as sportswear retailers and restaurants. * **Overseas Markets**: Overseas markets remained a bright spot for certain categories, with strong growth from companies like white goods companies, IP retailers, pet care companies, and OEMs. * **Deflation Pressure**: Consumers remained value-focused, with deflation pressure persisting, particularly in sportswear and prepared food. This led to more discounts and softer pricing trends in these categories. * **Local Brands vs. MNCs**: Local brands outperformed MNC brands across various categories, with leaders like Proya, Giant, and Shanghai Jahwa maintaining strong performance. * **Policy Stimulus**: The impact of policy stimulus on consumption remains key to watch. While some policies have been implemented, such as the home appliance trade-in program and consumption vouchers, more specific policies and execution are needed to drive confidence and consumption recovery. **Sector/Stock Preferences** * **Preferred Sub-sectors**: White goods, diversified retailers, super premium spirits, sports brands, and dairy. * **Least Preferred Sectors**: Sports retailers, furniture, projectors, restaurants, prepared food, discretionary small kitchen appliances, jewelry, and non super-premium spirits. * **Stock Preferences**: Anta (on CL), Midea, Hisense, Miniso, YUMC, Mengniu, Moutai, CRB, Giant Biogene, Laopu, Wuliangye, UPC, Robam, Yankershop Food. **4Q24 Outlook** * Sequential growth improvement is expected in 4Q24, given the easier base, but a significant rebound is not anticipated yet due to remaining fluid consumption sentiment. * Policy stimulus could protect from further downside, but more specific policies and execution are needed. * Margin remains a potential bright spot, with companies' cost control efforts and favorable input costs providing support. * Shareholder return remains a support to share prices, but growth outlook is also an important factor to consider. **Risks** * **Domestic Demand**: Remaining fluid consumption sentiment and potential policy execution risks. * **Pricing/Marketing**: Demand/inventory/market share dynamics impacting pricing and marketing investment strategies. * **Tariff Risk**: Tariff-related risks for companies with high exposure to the US market. * **Competition**: Intensified competition in certain categories, such as snacks and prepared food. **Conclusion** The Chinese consumer sector faced challenges in 3Q24, with softness across various categories and channels. While online sales and overseas markets remained strong, deflation pressure and remaining fluid consumption sentiment pose risks. Policy stimulus and companies' cost control efforts are crucial for driving confidence and consumption recovery.

Roundup | Citi China Investor Conference 2024 Day 1 & 2 Takeaways Macro | Industries | Companies The Citi China Investor Conference 2024 is being held 5-8 November in Shenzhen and Macau. We highlight key takeaways from Days 1 & 2. Macro China Economics - What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: China Economic and Policy Outlook 2025 We hosted Dr. Zhu Baoliang, former Chief Economist of the State Information Center under the NDRC at Citi's China Investor Conference. Dr. Zhu shared his view on China's rece ...

Flash | Buy Price (06 Nov 24 16:10) HK$33.70 Target price HK$41.40 Expected share price return 22.8% Expected dividend yield 7.4% Expected total return 30.2% Market Cap HK$669,569M US$86,143M 06 Nov 2024 10:31:52 ET │ 10 pages China Shenhua Energy (1088.HK) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Unit Cost of Coal Slightly Higher YoY in 2024E CITI'S TAKE We hosted 2024 Citi China Conference and met with Shenhua on Nov 6. Mr. Zhuang Yuan, Securities Affairs Representative, presented at the meeting. The p ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Spirits sector in China * **Key Companies**: Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin, ZJLD, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine, Luzhou Laojiao, Jiangsu Yanghe, Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Jiugui Liquor, Sichuan Swellfun Co., Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Key Points 1. **Moutai and Wuliangye Shipment Suspension**: Moutai Sales Company and Wuliangye announced shipment suspensions to stabilize prices and improve channel health. This reflects leading companies' commitment to supporting wholesale prices and boosting channel confidence [3]. 2. **Wholesale Price Trends**: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb40 to Rmb2,270 per bottle, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb30 to Rmb2,230 per bottle. Common Wuliangye's wholesale price remained flattish at Rmb950 per bottle, and Guojiao 1573's wholesale price remained flattish at Rmb860 per bottle [5]. 3. **3Q24 Results**: The spirits industry experienced a sequentially weak 3Q24, with companies shifting focus to proactive channel adjustments and improving shareholder return visibility. Wuliangye announced a 3-year plan with a 70%+ payout ratio and Rmb20bn+ dividend amount [5]. 4. **Consumer Vouchers**: MOFCOM announced the rollout of more consumer vouchers and promotion activities to stimulate consumption [13]. 5. **Baijiu Output**: Baijiu output of above-scale enterprises reached 363k kiloliters in September, down 9.9% yoy [15]. 6. **High-end Liquor Prices**: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale price decreased by Rmb695 from Rmb2,965 to Rmb2,270, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's wholesale price decreased by Rmb480 from Rmb2,710 to Rmb2,230. Common Wuliangye's wholesale price decreased by Rmb10 from Rmb960 to Rmb950, and Guojiao 1573's wholesale price decreased by Rmb15 from Rmb875 to Rmb860 [18]. 7. **Channel Policy and Product Launches**: Key spirits companies implemented various channel policies and product launches, including price hikes, new product launches, and shipment suspensions [31, 34]. 8. **Valuation and Risks**: Goldman Sachs provided valuation tables and key risks for selected spirits companies, considering factors such as P/E ratios, target prices, and potential risks like regulation changes, environmental pollution, and macroeconomic recovery [41, 43]. Additional Important Points * **Online Retail Prices**: Online retail prices of Feitian Moutai, Common Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 were analyzed, showing trends and changes over time [9]. * **Wholesale Price Summary**: A summary of wholesale prices for high-end liquors was provided, including Feitian Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 [18]. * **Performance and Valuation**: Performance and valuation tables were presented for selected spirits companies, considering factors like P/E ratios, target prices, and EV/EBITDA multiples [41]. * **Valuation Methodology and Key Risks**: Valuation methodologies and key risks were discussed for selected spirits companies, considering factors like P/E ratios, target prices, and potential risks like regulation changes and macroeconomic recovery [43]. * **Investment Trusts Association, Japan**: Information on the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, and its role in the spirits sector was provided [57]. * **Ratings, Coverage Universe, and Related Definitions**: Definitions and explanations of ratings, coverage universe, and related terms were provided [58]. * **Global Product and Distributing Entities**: Information on the global distribution of research products and the entities involved was provided [59]. * **General Disclosures**: General disclosures regarding the research, its limitations, and potential conflicts of interest were provided [60]. * **Differing Levels of Service**: Information on the varying levels of service provided by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research was provided [62]. * **© 2024 Goldman Sachs**: Copyright information was provided [64]. * **Restrictions on Use**: Restrictions on the use of the information provided were outlined [65].