更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Ecommerce According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China online retail sales in 11M24 increased 7.4% YoY to Rmb14,031bn, slower than the 8.8% YoY increase as of October. On a monthly basis, online retail sales in November declined 2% YoY vs. 10% YoY growth in October, reflecting the earlier Singles Day promotion this year. We believe the better way to read the numbers is to look at accumulated online retail sales growth in OctoberNovember, which normalizes the ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： China's retirement savings scheme goes national this Sunday shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Markets Strategy 12 December 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprin ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 of WILL CHINA'S POLICY STIMULUS BE ENOUGH? shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： WHAT'S INSIDE shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： - Hui Shan ISSUE 134 | December 11, 2024 | 5:15 PM EST ''''''U''''' '''' ' '' ' Global Macro Research TOP MIND 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Chinese policymakers doubled down this week in signaling a strong policy response to China's internal and external econ ...

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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Travel & Leisure Activity Tracker December 6, 2024 10:53 AM GMT Morgan Stanley | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H | | | | Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Jamie Rollo Equity Analyst Jamie.Rollo@morganstanley.com +44 (0)20 7425 3281 | | | | E ...

ab 6 December 2024 Global Research China Solar Industry China solar biweekly—monthly production to continue to fall in December Polysilicon production could fall 21% MoM in December According to PV InfoLink, mono-grade polysilicon prices for the week starting 2 December declined 1.3% WoW to Rmb39/kg. Based on continued cuts in utilisation rates, Silicon China expects polysilicon production to decrease 21% MoM to 105kt (44GW) in December. However, we estimate this would be higher than wafer demand of 40GW. W ...

ab 6 December 2024 Global Research China Healthcare Expert call takeaways: Turning point for commercial insurance in China healthcare? A more serious push this time; though patience is needed We invited a researcher from the China Health Insurance Research Association to discuss his views on recent efforts by the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) to encourage development of commercial insurance in the healthcare sector. Why now? The expert attributes the move to 1) top down guidance from th ...

M Idea Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific December 5, 2024 06:54 AM GMT We expect WFE players to outperform in 2025 We remain optimistic for China's wafer fab equipment (WFE) market, given robust capital investment from local memory and logic players and further share gains due to increased demand for localization. We expect 2025 to be a transition year for global WFE, with local China players to outperform: Following record outperformance by WFE stocks globally in 2024, lead by DRAM and China in p ...

Summary of EEMEA Oil and Gas Chartbook Equities Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Gas - **Region**: EEMEA (Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) Key Points 1. **OPEC+ Output Decisions**: OPEC+ has agreed to postpone output hikes due to weak oil demand, extending the unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) of voluntary cuts over 18 months instead of 12 months previously [15][15][15] 2. **Saudi Arabia's Jack-Up Rigs**: The active jack-up rig count in Saudi Arabia is expected to drop to 61 by mid-December 2024 from 88 rigs in February 2024, approaching pre-2020 levels [12][12][12] 3. **China's Oil Imports**: Crude oil imports to China increased by 9% month-on-month (mom) and 4% year-on-year (yoy), primarily driven by stockpiling rather than actual demand [14][14][14] 4. **Global Oil Demand**: Overall global oil demand growth remains weak, with notable declines in diesel and gasoline demand in the US and China [14][14][14] 5. **European Refining Margins**: European refining margins have weakened, averaging USD 6.3 per barrel but dropping to USD 3-4 per barrel in early December 2024, influenced by increased output from Nigeria's Dangote refinery [17][17][17] 6. **Freight Rates**: Clean tanker day rates have seen a modest increase, but remain significantly lower than in the first half of 2024 due to oversupply [18][18][18] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The third wave of rig suspensions in Saudi Arabia may affect between five and ten rigs, which is an increase from the previously expected five [12][12][12] - **Regional Production Compliance**: Iraqi oil production has declined to comply with OPEC+ quotas, while Kazakhstan's output rebounded significantly in November 2024 [15][15][15] - **Economic Impact**: Weaker refining margins have led to economic cuts in operations, with some refineries, like Gunvor's Rotterdam facility, facing closures [17][17][17] Conclusion The EEMEA oil and gas sector is currently facing challenges due to weak demand, regulatory decisions from OPEC+, and fluctuating refining margins. The situation is compounded by geopolitical factors and market dynamics that continue to evolve.

Key Points **Industry Overview** 1. **Export Demand**: Export demand remains strong, particularly in the Belt and Road (B&R) regions, contributing to higher margins. However, tariffs pose a downside risk. 2. **Domestic Market**: The domestic market is expected to see limited downside and some signs of recovery in 2025, driven by mild growth and potential stimulus measures. 3. **Sector Performance**: The construction machinery sector has seen a surge in stock prices YTD, driven by sustained export growth and domestic stimulus measures. **Company Analysis** 1. **Sany**: Sany is preferred due to its higher contribution from export and excavators. The target price for Sany is adjusted to HKD22.00 (RMB22.00) with a Buy rating. 2. **Zoomlion-H**: Zoomlion-H is also preferred due to its higher contribution from export and excavators. The target price for Zoomlion-H is adjusted to HKD6.20 (RMB7.90) with a Buy rating. 3. **Zoomlion-A**: Zoomlion-A is downgraded to Hold due to weaker-than-expected domestic sales and export growth moderation. The target price is adjusted to RMB7.90 (HKD6.20) with a Hold rating. **Market Outlook** 1. **Export Growth**: Export growth is expected to sustain at 10-20% in 2025, normalizing from the high base of 30-50% growth in 2024e. 2. **Domestic Growth**: Domestic sales growth is expected to turn positive in 2025, driven by easy comparisons and potential stimulus measures. 3. **Valuation**: The sector trades at a 2.0x 1-year forward PB, below the historical average of 2.3x since 2012. **Additional Considerations** 1. **Tariffs**: Tariffs remain a downside risk for export businesses. 2. **Domestic Weakness**: Domestic weakness in property-related machinery could impact overall sector performance. 3. **Replacement Demand**: Replacement demand is expected to be the main driver of domestic excavator sales in 2025e.