M Idea Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific December 5, 2024 06:54 AM GMT We expect WFE players to outperform in 2025 We remain optimistic for China's wafer fab equipment (WFE) market, given robust capital investment from local memory and logic players and further share gains due to increased demand for localization. We expect 2025 to be a transition year for global WFE, with local China players to outperform: Following record outperformance by WFE stocks globally in 2024, lead by DRAM and China in p ...

Key Points **Industry Overview** 1. **Export Demand**: Export demand remains strong, particularly in the Belt and Road (B&R) regions, contributing to higher margins. However, tariffs pose a downside risk. 2. **Domestic Market**: The domestic market is expected to see limited downside and some signs of recovery in 2025, driven by mild growth and potential stimulus measures. 3. **Sector Performance**: The construction machinery sector has seen a surge in stock prices YTD, driven by sustained export growth and domestic stimulus measures. **Company Analysis** 1. **Sany**: Sany is preferred due to its higher contribution from export and excavators. The target price for Sany is adjusted to HKD22.00 (RMB22.00) with a Buy rating. 2. **Zoomlion-H**: Zoomlion-H is also preferred due to its higher contribution from export and excavators. The target price for Zoomlion-H is adjusted to HKD6.20 (RMB7.90) with a Buy rating. 3. **Zoomlion-A**: Zoomlion-A is downgraded to Hold due to weaker-than-expected domestic sales and export growth moderation. The target price is adjusted to RMB7.90 (HKD6.20) with a Hold rating. **Market Outlook** 1. **Export Growth**: Export growth is expected to sustain at 10-20% in 2025, normalizing from the high base of 30-50% growth in 2024e. 2. **Domestic Growth**: Domestic sales growth is expected to turn positive in 2025, driven by easy comparisons and potential stimulus measures. 3. **Valuation**: The sector trades at a 2.0x 1-year forward PB, below the historical average of 2.3x since 2012. **Additional Considerations** 1. **Tariffs**: Tariffs remain a downside risk for export businesses. 2. **Domestic Weakness**: Domestic weakness in property-related machinery could impact overall sector performance. 3. **Replacement Demand**: Replacement demand is expected to be the main driver of domestic excavator sales in 2025e.

Summary of EEMEA Oil and Gas Chartbook Equities Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Gas - **Region**: EEMEA (Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) Key Points 1. **OPEC+ Output Decisions**: OPEC+ has agreed to postpone output hikes due to weak oil demand, extending the unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) of voluntary cuts over 18 months instead of 12 months previously [15][15][15] 2. **Saudi Arabia's Jack-Up Rigs**: The active jack-up rig count in Saudi Arabia is expected to drop to 61 by mid-December 2024 from 88 rigs in February 2024, approaching pre-2020 levels [12][12][12] 3. **China's Oil Imports**: Crude oil imports to China increased by 9% month-on-month (mom) and 4% year-on-year (yoy), primarily driven by stockpiling rather than actual demand [14][14][14] 4. **Global Oil Demand**: Overall global oil demand growth remains weak, with notable declines in diesel and gasoline demand in the US and China [14][14][14] 5. **European Refining Margins**: European refining margins have weakened, averaging USD 6.3 per barrel but dropping to USD 3-4 per barrel in early December 2024, influenced by increased output from Nigeria's Dangote refinery [17][17][17] 6. **Freight Rates**: Clean tanker day rates have seen a modest increase, but remain significantly lower than in the first half of 2024 due to oversupply [18][18][18] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The third wave of rig suspensions in Saudi Arabia may affect between five and ten rigs, which is an increase from the previously expected five [12][12][12] - **Regional Production Compliance**: Iraqi oil production has declined to comply with OPEC+ quotas, while Kazakhstan's output rebounded significantly in November 2024 [15][15][15] - **Economic Impact**: Weaker refining margins have led to economic cuts in operations, with some refineries, like Gunvor's Rotterdam facility, facing closures [17][17][17] Conclusion The EEMEA oil and gas sector is currently facing challenges due to weak demand, regulatory decisions from OPEC+, and fluctuating refining margins. The situation is compounded by geopolitical factors and market dynamics that continue to evolve.

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Dec 2024 16:00:00 ET │ 29 pages Global Economics Global Indicators November Chartbook: The World in Pictures CITI'S TAKE Our global indicators chartbook highlights ongoing resilience as global growth has continued to run a notch below its 3% trend. The global PMIs at the same time highlight a two-track global economy with strong services sectors and struggling manufacturing activity. While the global manufacturing PMI increased to 50 in November, it had languished in contractionary te ...

Extel Asia Survey 2025 12 Nov – 6 Dec 2024 Equity Research Report | 6 December 2024 China Energy Storage Equities Industrials & Renewables China From boom to bloom ◆ We raise our 2025-26 energy storage system installation forecasts given a better demand outlook ◆ China is liberalizing its ancillary service market, which could lead to better returns for ESS operators ◆ Compared with Sungrow, Eve has more upside potential given bottoming battery prices We raise our 2025/26 global energy storage system (ESS) i ...

Europe Equity Research 02 December 2024 J P M O R G A N Metal Inventories in China China metals channel check: steel production & China steel demand flat week on week & stable across November. JPM latest iron ore market review. We present our high frequency inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper, aluminium and zinc in China, for the week ended 29 November. The period captures the last 9-week period since China announced coordinated monetary policy loosening on 24 Sept. Last week's high frequency data ...

2 December 2024 | 3:15PM HKT China Smartphones: Foldable phone patents on new form factors and components upgrade; new models pipeline We reviewed foldable phone patents and models pipeline, and are positive on the rising foldable phone penetration rate. More patents have been filed in 2024, reflecting the trend of (1) New form factors: from flip-types and horizontal-folding to Tri-Fold and Quad-Fold phones, which are positive for supply chain dollar content increase; (2) Components upgrade: more durable pa ...

J P M O R G A N | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------| | | Asia Pacific Equity Research 02 December 2024 | | This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China inv ...

M Idea Commodity Matters | Europe December 2, 2024 02:34 PM GMT China's Surging Coal Imports China's thermal coal imports have risen 80% in the last 2 years and are showing no sign yet of peaking out. New coal contract guidelines from 2025, including relaxed minimum captive sourcing requirements and improved linkages to international prices, are likely a further boost to import volumes. Key Takeaways New contract guidelines lower the minimum captive share requirement from 80% to 75% from 2025, giving genera ...

M Update GDS Holdings Ltd | Asia Pacific December 2, 2024 02:22 AM GMT China Core Internet Trip Takeaways We see a positive outlook for the overseas and domestic business. Overseas: Domestic: REITs in focus: • GDS maintained its target of 1GW committed capacity by 2027; sales pipeline is more skewed to overseas customers. • Beyond the 430MW current committed capacity, it still has 100-200MW capacity reserved by hyperscale customers, which will be transferred to contract in following quarters. • Customer mov ...