更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 摩根士丹利：反弹能否成为反转！货币有了，财政还会远吗？ 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 各位投资者朋友，大家上午好。欢迎来到一周一度的大摩宏观策略谈。今天很多在线的朋友都 比较忙，因为市场也比较活跃，我们也不想过度的耽误大家的时间，主要就针对最核心的几个 问题，让从我这边若病行之强，我们的团队的蔡志鹏博士和我们的首席策略师罗拉和我们的金 融行业的首席瑞特，主要是从政策面来分析下一步还有什么招，能不能达到市场的预期，什么 时候真正能一举打破通缩？ 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 这次的市场的反弹能否持久成为长期的反转？这是今天的主要话题。当然我们的消费行业的首 席练练也会具体的讲到，现在大家预期打得比较高，对这些消费股大幅反弹之后，实际上基本 面由这些政策来传导到需要什么时候黄金周能不能有一些新意，像往常一样，我还是先给大家 抛砖引玉，再讲下一步的货币已经有了，财政还会不会远？ 之前我想过去一周大概经历了我 们职业生涯以来最忙的一周，那比可能 2022 年 11 月中国疫情放开之后，全球投资者对中国的 关注程度 ...

Michael Feroli (1-212) 834-5523 michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603 michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Murat Tasci (1-212) 622-0288 murat.tasci@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Abiel Reinhart (1-212) 270 4058 abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA United States • At the September FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed will do what it "should" do and cut 50bp... • … warranted by a shift in the balance of risks and a desire to pr ...

J P M O R G A N North America Fixed Income Strategy 13 September 2024 Phoebe White AC (1-212) 834-3092 phoebe.a.white@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Liam L Wash (1-212) 834-5230 liam.wash@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC • Economics: Core CPI surprised to the upside, rising 0.28% in August supported by a jump in OER. We continue to expect the Fed will lower the policy rate by 50bp at next week's FOMC meeting. We expect the median dots will show 100bp of easing by YE24 and another 150bp of ea ...

Global Data Watch • US labor market and inflation performance looks different ... • … bolstering case for relatively fast Fed ease through year-end • Don't get carried away with momentum as we look toward 2025 • Next week: Modest US jobs (150k); stable global PMI; BoC eases A wide divide Relative to its potential path, the US is the only large economy to have generated a complete post-pandemic recovery. As the performance gap with other advanced economies continues to widen—most notably in wealth generation ...

J P M O R G A N Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy 27 August 2024 US Equity Financing and AIR TRF Monitor Aug 27, 2024 • Short-dated implied financing rates increased on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 w/w, leading to a flattening of the funding term structure. • Pricing on the S&P 500 AIR TRFs increased 1 bp on the Sep'24 contract, 4 bps on the Dec'24 contract, 3 bps on the Mar'25 contract, and were little changed across the rest of the curve w/w. • Volumes on S&P 500 AIR TRFs totaled ~$8 ...

Michael Feroli (1-212) 834-5523 michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603 michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Murat Tasci (1-212) 622-0288 murat.tasci@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Abiel Reinhart (1-212) 270 4058 abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA United States • 3Q GDP growth tracking stronger on signs of solid consumer spending • Business spending has been more cautious and business sentiment is downbeat • Core PCE inf ...

Global Quantative & Derivatives Strategy August 27, 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan China Equity Flow Monitor Xipu HanAC +852 2800 1029 xipu.han@jpmorgan.com Haoshun Liu +852 2800 7736 haoshun.liu@jpmorgan.com Data as of August 23, 2024 T ...

Haibin Zhu (852) 2800-7039 haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch Grace Ng (852) 2800-7002 grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com Ji Yan (852) 2800-7673 ji.yan@jpmorgan.com Greater China • China: slowing exports amid concerns on softening global manufacturing trend • CPI inflation ticked up to 0.5%oya on food prices; core CPI remained soft; look for further rate cuts • Taiwan: July CPI inflation ticked up, partly reflecting typhoon impact; e ...

全球市场策略 2024 年 7 月 29 日 性大幅收益进行调整, 盈利意外接近 3.7%。对于已经报告的公司, 第二季度收入同 比增长 4.3%, 净收入增长 8.3%( 前金融股为5.1%)。 J.P.Mor 美国收益记分卡 2Q24 收益更新 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | | | | 击败 / 错过。标准普尔 500指数成份股中有 40% 的公司已经公布了财报,76%的公司 | 股票宏观策略 | | 超过了第二季度的财报(而74%平均。最近第四季度,见图)和 54% 的收入超过预 ...

Fabio Bassi (44-20) 摩根大通证券有限公司 Elisabetta Ferrara (44 - 20) 7134 - 2765 elisabetta, ferrara @ jpmorgan, com 摩根大通证券有限公司 图 1:7月份实现了年初以来最大的月度反弹之一 10年期英国因侦、外滩和美国国债基礎收益率滚动变化 1M:自2024年2月1日起:bp 以欧元、奥元和英镑计算的 1Yx1Y OKS 汇率的累计变化:自2024年6月1日起:bp | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------|---------------|-----------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | | 0.5 10Y 外滩 10Y UST - 10Y 镀 0.4 | 20 0 | EUR | - USD GBP | | 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 | -20 -40 -60 | | | | -0.2 -0. ...