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North America Credit Research 04 October 2024 J P M O R G A N High Yield Energy Oily E&P Model Book Update Putting out an oily E&P model book in the context of current geopolitical tensions is a bit of an exercise in self-hatred. Nonetheless, we think the focus on the sector is likely to remain high, and getting our models (and sensitivities) out to investors is worth it despite the likely potential volatility in coming days. It has been some time since energy investors have seen this sort of bifurcation in ...

Oil Markets Weekly This time, it feels different • We assume that attacking Iran's energy facilities would not be Israel's preferred course of action, but rather a secondary or even tertiary response to Iran's possible escalation • We also assign a low probability to the scenario where Iran targets energy flows from Gulf Arab states, given the recently upgraded diplomatic ties with GCC countries • Still, unlike October 2023 and April 2024, the current situation suggests that, given the low level of oil inve ...

North America Equity Research 04 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Exchange Volumes Update Week of Sep 27 - Oct 3: Middle East Escalations Drive Energy Derivatives Volumes | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

J P M O R G A N Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy 04 October 2024 Cross Asset Strategy Combining Positioning Dynamics and Price Momentum in Cross Asset Futures | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | ...

North America Equity Research 04 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Apple App Store Tracker: September Revenue Tracks Above Seasonal Trends, While C3Q24 Tracks In-Line; Supports Services Revenue Forecast for C3Q24 Overweight AAPL, AAPL US Price (03 Oct 24):$225.67 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited. China A-shares Monthly Wrap September: Strong rebound on stimulus combo announced and hope for more on the fiscal side Global Markets Strategy 01 October 2024 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

September 29, 2024 09:45 PM GMT Addressing Your Top Questions on China Stimulus The policy pivot is significant, but we haven't reached the decisive trillion-dollar reflation moment yet. We expect modest fiscal easing and mild QoQ growth improvement in 4Q24-1Q25, and see potential for a further 10% tactical equity rally. A dip in our Social Dynamics Indicator could trigger bigger stimulus. A significant policy pivot: Since our trip to Beijing in early September, we have been of the view that policymakers ha ...

摩根士丹利：市场能持续么？政策预期会兑现吗？20241007 发言人 00:01 后面有没有财政政策，甚至更深层的针对民营企业的监管政策能够协调发力。如果他们都相继 出炉了，可能这次主要的外资对中国的信心了就有望恢复。所以今天我们首先来给大家解释一 下，后面会不会有相关的政策，我们的答案是会，因为要理解这次政策的转向，还是要从我们 的这个框架做起来。 发言人 00:32 过去三年多，大家感受到了中国底层逻辑的变化，从发展过去的单纯为第一要务转变为安全和 发展并重。但是安全之中的社会稳定问题依然是决策层的重中之重。所以我们编制了这个萨摩 的社会感知形式，基于各种关于公司就业福利以及劳动者纠纷。显然可以看到，最近已经处于 一些柔软，甚至到了比较低迷的水平和境地。 发言人 01:09 在历史上决策层做出比较有利的政策转向，包括 15 年的年底，包括 2022 年的年底，距离那个 时间不太远，所以这是很重要的框架。为什么要理解这个框架呢？因为很多常见的外资投资者， 在我们过去一周的交流过程中，比较大的一个疑虑和担心就是为什么这次中国政策短了。如果 说每次转向都是很灵很难令人难以预测的话，那可能大家觉得这种不透明度使得 ...