M Update EM Fixed Income Flows Update | Global October 11, 2024 09:09 AM GMT Where Supply Meets Demand EM flows: EMDD funds saw inflows worth US$1.2bn this week versus inflows of US$52m in the previous week. • Hard currency fund inflows re-accelerated moderately to US$335m from US $219m in inflows in the prior week. Sovereign funds turned to outflows of US$304m from inflows of US$235m in the last week but corporate funds (US$434m in inflows versus US$49m in outflows a week ago) and mixed sovereign/corporate ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as Attractive [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic bauxite market in China is tight, with year-to-date production down 16%. Alumina supply is also constrained, despite 1 million tons of new capacity starting this month. High-profit alumina plants are operating at high utilization rates without proper maintenance, leading to increased maintenance activities. The inventory of alumina at aluminum plants is only 12 days, down 22% year-over-year. Near-term bauxite and alumina prices in China are expected to receive support from supply tightness [1]. - Major beneficiaries identified in the report are Chalco and Hongqiao, both of which are net long in alumina and possess their own bauxite supply [1]. Summary by Sections Supply Issues - A large bauxite mine in Guinea is experiencing shipment issues due to a dispute with the government over increased logistics-related fees. This mine currently ships 7 million tons to China annually. A resolution is expected, but at a higher cost. Chinese alumina plants have an average bauxite inventory of approximately 1-2 weeks, indicating that prolonged shipment disruptions could impact alumina supply [1]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the alumina supply in China remains tight, with the inventory at aluminum plants only covering 12 days. This situation is exacerbated by the high utilization of alumina plants and ongoing maintenance activities [1]. Company Ratings - The report provides specific ratings for companies within the industry, including: - Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (601600.SS) - Overweight - China Hongqiao Group (1378.HK) - Overweight - Chalco and Hongqiao are highlighted as major beneficiaries due to their positions in the alumina market [1][16][17].

M Idea Gaming, Lodging and Real Estate | Asia Pacific October 11, 2024 05:11 PM GMT TWA#41: Is Shanghai Shining? Luxury mall visit in Shanghai revealed oversupply but resiliency. Golden Week in Macau was strong, but 3Q margin could disappoint, and EBITDA revision for 2024/25 is negative. Could MoF press conference (Oct 12) change that? Prefer Sands, Godrej and Phoenix. But, Macau 3Q EBITDA will drop by 8% QoQ, resulting in negative revisions for 2024/25 estimates. HK Property residential sentiment is improv ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese market, suggesting a potential technical rebound in the stock market with an estimated 10% upside [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant policy shift in response to deflationary pressures, with expectations of a supplementary budget of 1-2 trillion RMB to support consumption and a potential interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points by the end of the year [1][4][10]. - It emphasizes that while the government is beginning to address deflation, the path to sustained re-inflation will be challenging and may require substantial fiscal stimulus exceeding 1 trillion USD over the next two years [8][13]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The report notes that the government is expected to implement a supplementary budget aimed at boosting consumption, providing financial support to low-income groups, and assisting local governments in maintaining their operational expenditures [4][10]. - It anticipates that the central bank will adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts, with a potential reduction of 20 basis points by year-end [4][10]. Economic Outlook - The report forecasts a gradual improvement in GDP growth rates, projecting a rise from 3% in Q2-Q3 to approximately 5% in the coming quarters due to the anticipated policy measures [1][11]. - It also indicates that the deflationary cycle is becoming more entrenched, necessitating stronger policy interventions to break the cycle [10][11]. Market Strategy - The report suggests that investors should focus on stocks with dividend yields significantly above the borrowing cost of 2.25%, as well as A+H shares that may benefit from policy support [1][15]. - It provides specific stock screening criteria for potential beneficiaries of the anticipated monetary and fiscal policies [16]. Long-term Considerations - The report warns that achieving sustainable re-inflation will require addressing structural issues in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and consumer spending [13][14]. - It draws parallels with Japan's historical challenges in combating deflation, emphasizing the need for comprehensive and coordinated policy measures [13][14].

Deutsche Bank Research M&A when rates fall Distributed on: 10/10/2024 09:33:16 GMT Luke Templeman October 2024 Research Analyst Luke.Templeman@db.com +44 207 541 0130 Galina Pozdnyakova Research Analyst Galina.Pozdnyakova@db.com +44 207 547 4994 Deutsche Bank Research | M&A spotlight: M&A when rates fall | October 2024 0 IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR F ...

M Asia Pacific Insight October 10, 2024 09:00 AM GMT Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. The Vital Cooling Solution Supplier in Asia; Overweight | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------------|----------------| | What's Changed \nAsia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) \nPrice Target | | From \nNT$830.00 | To \nNT$875.00 | | | | | | | | | | | We expect AVC's full-range cooling solutions to grow its AI infrastructure exposure t ...

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