M Idea Gaming, Lodging and Real Estate | Asia Pacific October 11, 2024 05:11 PM GMT TWA#41: Is Shanghai Shining? Luxury mall visit in Shanghai revealed oversupply but resiliency. Golden Week in Macau was strong, but 3Q margin could disappoint, and EBITDA revision for 2024/25 is negative. Could MoF press conference (Oct 12) change that? Prefer Sands, Godrej and Phoenix. But, Macau 3Q EBITDA will drop by 8% QoQ, resulting in negative revisions for 2024/25 estimates. HK Property residential sentiment is improv ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese market, with a potential 10% technical rebound in the stock market, particularly for A-shares [1] Core Views - Policy shifts are expected to drive moderate GDP growth improvement over the next two quarters, with a projected increase from 3% (annualized QoQ) in Q2-Q3 2024 to 5% [1] - The report highlights that the policy shift includes unprecedented liquidity tools to boost the stock market and stabilize the real estate market [1] - The reflation path remains challenging due to structural imbalances, and achieving sustainable inflation and growth may require a prolonged effort [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - A supplementary budget of 1-2 trillion RMB is expected to be announced by the National People's Congress in late October 2024, aimed at supporting consumption and local fiscal measures [4] - The central bank is anticipated to cut interest rates by 10-20 basis points and lower the reserve requirement ratio by 25-50 basis points by the end of 2024 [4] - Real estate policies may include further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and measures to accelerate inventory reduction [4] GDP and Inflation Projections - GDP growth is expected to improve from 3.6% (annualized QoQ) in Q3 2024 to 4.7% in Q4 2024 and further to 5.3% in Q1 2025 [10] - Deflationary pressures are deeply entrenched, and breaking the deflationary cycle will require more aggressive policy measures [10] Asset Allocation and Stock Market Strategy - A-shares with dividend yields and free cash flow yields significantly above the 2.25% relending rate are recommended for investment [1] - Stocks with A-share prices benefiting from recent policy boosts but trading at a discount in Hong Kong are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [1] - The CSI 300 index may have around 10% upside potential in the short term, driven by policy support and improving macroeconomic conditions [20] Key Risks and Monitoring Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation details of fiscal stimulus measures, particularly the scale, speed, and execution of policies [23] - External risks, including geopolitical uncertainties and potential global economic slowdown, are also noted as factors that could impact the market [24]

Deutsche Bank Research M&A when rates fall Distributed on: 10/10/2024 09:33:16 GMT Luke Templeman October 2024 Research Analyst Luke.Templeman@db.com +44 207 541 0130 Galina Pozdnyakova Research Analyst Galina.Pozdnyakova@db.com +44 207 547 4994 Deutsche Bank Research | M&A spotlight: M&A when rates fall | October 2024 0 IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR F ...

M Asia Pacific Insight October 10, 2024 09:00 AM GMT Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. The Vital Cooling Solution Supplier in Asia; Overweight | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------------|----------------| | What's Changed \nAsia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) \nPrice Target | | From \nNT$830.00 | To \nNT$875.00 | | | | | | | | | | | We expect AVC's full-range cooling solutions to grow its AI infrastructure exposure t ...

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M Update Multi-Industry | North America October 10, 2024 04:35 AM GMT 3Q24 Preview: Easy to Find Beats, Harder to Find Revisions Note includes detailed write-ups and modeling on company specific set-ups into Q3 EPS along with key macro debates. We have re-connected with all of our Corporates post Laguna Conference. We model beats across our US multi-industry coverage into Q3 – the macro has tracked sideways, in line w/ corporate expectations and we see margins as the clearest source of EPS upside in the qua ...

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