M Update EM Fixed Income Flows Update | Global October 11, 2024 09:09 AM GMT Where Supply Meets Demand EM flows: EMDD funds saw inflows worth US$1.2bn this week versus inflows of US$52m in the previous week. • Hard currency fund inflows re-accelerated moderately to US$335m from US $219m in inflows in the prior week. Sovereign funds turned to outflows of US$304m from inflows of US$235m in the last week but corporate funds (US$434m in inflows versus US$49m in outflows a week ago) and mixed sovereign/corporate ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as Attractive [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic bauxite market in China is tight, with year-to-date production down 16%. Alumina supply is also constrained, despite 1 million tons of new capacity starting this month. High-profit alumina plants are operating at high utilization rates without proper maintenance, leading to increased maintenance activities. The inventory of alumina at aluminum plants is only 12 days, down 22% year-over-year. Near-term bauxite and alumina prices in China are expected to receive support from supply tightness [1]. - Major beneficiaries identified in the report are Chalco and Hongqiao, both of which are net long in alumina and possess their own bauxite supply [1]. Summary by Sections Supply Issues - A large bauxite mine in Guinea is experiencing shipment issues due to a dispute with the government over increased logistics-related fees. This mine currently ships 7 million tons to China annually. A resolution is expected, but at a higher cost. Chinese alumina plants have an average bauxite inventory of approximately 1-2 weeks, indicating that prolonged shipment disruptions could impact alumina supply [1]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the alumina supply in China remains tight, with the inventory at aluminum plants only covering 12 days. This situation is exacerbated by the high utilization of alumina plants and ongoing maintenance activities [1]. Company Ratings - The report provides specific ratings for companies within the industry, including: - Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (601600.SS) - Overweight - China Hongqiao Group (1378.HK) - Overweight - Chalco and Hongqiao are highlighted as major beneficiaries due to their positions in the alumina market [1][16][17].

M Idea Gaming, Lodging and Real Estate | Asia Pacific October 11, 2024 05:11 PM GMT TWA#41: Is Shanghai Shining? Luxury mall visit in Shanghai revealed oversupply but resiliency. Golden Week in Macau was strong, but 3Q margin could disappoint, and EBITDA revision for 2024/25 is negative. Could MoF press conference (Oct 12) change that? Prefer Sands, Godrej and Phoenix. But, Macau 3Q EBITDA will drop by 8% QoQ, resulting in negative revisions for 2024/25 estimates. HK Property residential sentiment is improv ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese market, with a potential 10% technical rebound in the stock market, particularly for A-shares [1] Core Views - Policy shifts are expected to drive moderate GDP growth improvement over the next two quarters, with a projected increase from 3% (annualized QoQ) in Q2-Q3 2024 to 5% [1] - The report highlights that the policy shift includes unprecedented liquidity tools to boost the stock market and stabilize the real estate market [1] - The reflation path remains challenging due to structural imbalances, and achieving sustainable inflation and growth may require a prolonged effort [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - A supplementary budget of 1-2 trillion RMB is expected to be announced by the National People's Congress in late October 2024, aimed at supporting consumption and local fiscal measures [4] - The central bank is anticipated to cut interest rates by 10-20 basis points and lower the reserve requirement ratio by 25-50 basis points by the end of 2024 [4] - Real estate policies may include further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and measures to accelerate inventory reduction [4] GDP and Inflation Projections - GDP growth is expected to improve from 3.6% (annualized QoQ) in Q3 2024 to 4.7% in Q4 2024 and further to 5.3% in Q1 2025 [10] - Deflationary pressures are deeply entrenched, and breaking the deflationary cycle will require more aggressive policy measures [10] Asset Allocation and Stock Market Strategy - A-shares with dividend yields and free cash flow yields significantly above the 2.25% relending rate are recommended for investment [1] - Stocks with A-share prices benefiting from recent policy boosts but trading at a discount in Hong Kong are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [1] - The CSI 300 index may have around 10% upside potential in the short term, driven by policy support and improving macroeconomic conditions [20] Key Risks and Monitoring Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation details of fiscal stimulus measures, particularly the scale, speed, and execution of policies [23] - External risks, including geopolitical uncertainties and potential global economic slowdown, are also noted as factors that could impact the market [24]

Deutsche Bank Research M&A when rates fall Distributed on: 10/10/2024 09:33:16 GMT Luke Templeman October 2024 Research Analyst Luke.Templeman@db.com +44 207 541 0130 Galina Pozdnyakova Research Analyst Galina.Pozdnyakova@db.com +44 207 547 4994 Deutsche Bank Research | M&A spotlight: M&A when rates fall | October 2024 0 IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR F ...

M Asia Pacific Insight October 10, 2024 09:00 AM GMT Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. The Vital Cooling Solution Supplier in Asia; Overweight | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------------|----------------| | What's Changed \nAsia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) \nPrice Target | | From \nNT$830.00 | To \nNT$875.00 | | | | | | | | | | | We expect AVC's full-range cooling solutions to grow its AI infrastructure exposure t ...

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