更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 M Update | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 15 Oct 2024 18:53:38 ET │ 10 pages Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SS) Adding Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch shuinu9870 View original report on this Catalyst Watch Direction: Upside 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Duration: Within 30 Days (expires 15 Nov 2024) Catalyst: Strong alumina price With limited alumina and bauxite supply, we expect alumina pri ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to China Unicom [3][10][17] - The price target is set at HK$6.50, indicating a downside of 7% from the current price of HK$6.96 [3][10] Core Insights - China Unicom showcased a flagship 5G smart factory project with Paideer Battery, which significantly improves production efficiency by reducing production tasks from two days to just two hours [3][10] - The company views data as a crucial driver for future growth, engaging in the construction of third-party trustable data spaces to enhance AI development [3][10] - China Unicom is enhancing its receivables collection process by switching to continuous collection throughout the year, aiming for better cash flow management [3][10] Financial Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2023, the projected revenue is Rmb 372.6 billion, with an EBITDA of Rmb 82.7 billion [3][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected to grow from Rmb 0.61 in 2023 to Rmb 0.82 by 2026 [3][10] - The net income is expected to increase from Rmb 18.7 billion in 2023 to Rmb 25.0 billion by 2026 [3][10] Market Position - China Unicom's market capitalization is currently US$27.4 billion, with an enterprise value of US$12.1 billion [3][10] - The company has a significant stake in China Tower, valued at HK$0.9 per share, contributing to its overall valuation [10]

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： October 14, 2024 10:55 AM GMT M Update Chinese Airports | Asia Pacific Chart in the Spotlight: Traffic Recovery at Key Chinese Airports shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Traffic growth softened to teens YoY in September after the summer peak, with 6-7% YoY domestic traffic growth and ~50% YoY non-domestic tra ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on QNB shares and highlights a preference for Saudi banks trading at attractive valuations [17][28]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have recently impacted MENA stocks, with a focus on price target sensitivity to Cost of Equity (COE) assumptions, particularly for growth stocks and those with leveraged balance sheets [2][6]. - The report identifies Al Rajhi Bank, Alinma Bank, and APPC as having the highest price target sensitivity to a 100bps increase in COE, while also being key beneficiaries of reduced geopolitical risk [2][32]. - The report emphasizes that unless the current conflict escalates to involve GCC countries directly, the financial market impact is expected to remain limited [2][6]. Financials - MENA banks have negligible direct exposure to troubled regions, with indirect exposure linked to system liquidity and oil prices [17]. - QNB is highlighted as a defensive stock due to its strong shareholder backing and diversified operations, while Saudi banks like SABB and RIBL are noted for attractive valuations [17][28]. Real Estate - The UAE property sector, particularly in Dubai, is viewed as a safe haven during geopolitical uncertainty, with strong rental yields and visibility from existing property backlogs [18]. - Aldar's portfolio is considered more defensive due to its exposure to residential and commercial leasing [18]. Healthcare & Pharma - The Saudi healthcare sector is deemed defensive due to domestic exposure and critical demand, with Sulaiman Al Habib identified as a key player [19]. - Saudi pharma producers face supply chain risks due to reliance on imported raw materials [19]. TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) - stc is recognized as the most defensive name in the TMT space, supported by a visible dividend yield and strong liquidity [20]. - Media companies like Al Arabia and MBC Group are sensitive to regional instability due to their reliance on advertising spend [20]. Consumer - Almarai is highlighted as a defensive consumer staple due to its resilient category exposure and low foreign ownership [22]. - Americana and Seera are identified as more exposed to geopolitical risks, particularly in tourism [22]. Industrials - The report notes that Dubai-based industrial names are less vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, while Saudi companies like ACWA Power are expected to be relatively defensive [22]. Energy and Petchems - ADNOC Drilling and ADNOC Gas are viewed as defensive stocks in the petchem space, while Kayan and APPC are considered less defensive due to their leveraged balance sheets [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a forecast for low, positive headline CPI inflation through the rest of the year, with a full-year 2024 CPI inflation forecast at 0.4% and PPI deflation expected to continue through year-end [8][9]. Core Insights - Domestic supply and demand imbalances persist, with a lack of significant policy redirection impacting inflation dynamics. September CPI moderated to 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI deflation intensified, dropping 2.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - Recent policy measures from the Chinese government focus on monetary easing, fiscal support, and structural rebalancing, but direct consumption support remains limited, indicating a cautious approach to stimulating demand [9][11]. - The report highlights weak consumption linked to low income expectations and high household saving rates, suggesting that more robust measures are needed to stabilize the housing market and improve consumer confidence [10][11]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, down from 0.6% in August, with a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 0.1% [2][12]. - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while vehicle fuel prices fell by 2.8% [2][12]. - Core CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing sluggish domestic demand conditions [2][7]. PPI Analysis - PPI deflation intensified, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8%, compared to -1.8% in August [3][13]. - Consumer goods PPI fell by 1.3% year-on-year, while producer goods PPI dropped by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating broad-based declines across various sectors [3][6]. Policy Measures - The Chinese government has initiated a new round of policy easing, focusing on risk mitigation rather than significant supply-demand rebalancing [9][11]. - The recent Ministry of Finance press conference did not announce the size of the fiscal package, indicating a cautious approach to fiscal stimulus [7][9]. - The report suggests that while there are signals of policy shifts, they are insufficient to alleviate deflationary pressures in the economy [11][12].

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the technology sector, specifically software and services, is "In-Line" [1][2]. Core Insights - The 3Q24 survey indicates an acceleration in reseller business growth, primarily driven by cloud subscriptions, leading to a raised growth forecast of 26% for cloud revenue in 3Q24 [1]. - IT budget growth is stable at 3.4% for 2024, with an initial forecast of 3.6% for 2025, reflecting slight signs of acceleration in the IT spending environment despite near-term uncertainties [1]. - The survey results show that Microsoft is well-positioned to capture a share of the growing GenAI spend, with stable software growth expectations for CY24 and moderate acceleration anticipated for CY25 [1]. Company Ratings - Companies rated as "Overweight" include Amadeus, Compugroup, Dassault Systemes, Sage, SAP, and Trustpilot [2]. - Companies rated as "Equal-weight" include Nemetschek, TeamViewer, and Capgemini [2]. - Companies rated as "Underweight" include Fortnox, Hexagon AB, Sinch, and Temenos [2]. Price Performance - Temenos was the best performer last week with a 7% increase, while Fortnox was the worst performer with a 6% decrease [1]. - Year-to-date, Trustpilot and SAP have shown significant price increases of 54% and 48% respectively, while Worldline has decreased by 58% [5][6]. Company Guidance - SAP's guidance for FY24 includes a non-IFRS operating profit of €7.6-7.9 billion, with a free cash flow expectation of approximately €3.5 billion [12][14]. - Adyen anticipates revenue growth of 11-14.5% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin expected to exceed 50% by 2026 [12][14]. - Temenos expects an ARR growth of approximately 13% and free cash flow growth of over 16% [16]. Upcoming Events - Key upcoming earnings reports include SAP and Temenos for 3Q24, scheduled for October 21, 2024 [9]. - Other notable reports include Atos and Fortnox on October 24, 2024 [9].

October 13, 2024 10:00 PM GMT M Idea Three in Three | Asia Pacific Three Actionable Ideas Meituan – OW | Reliance Industries – OW | AIA Group – OW OW – Meituan (3690.HK): We raise 2026-28 non-IFRS net profit estimates 15-25% as the government's policy pivot reinforces our conviction for CLC GTV to double over 2024-29. For 3Q24, we see core revenue and operating profit up 19% and 37%, respectively, defying a weak macroenvironment. Reiterate OW, raise PT to HK$215. OW – Reliance Industries (RELI.NS): Cyclical ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - Domestic slots are expected to decline by 1% year-over-year (YoY) for the Winter/Spring season, while international passenger slots are projected to grow by 5% YoY, reaching 77% of 2019 levels [2][3] - Chinese airlines are reducing domestic slots to improve execution ratios amid profitability challenges, with regional slots at 94% and international slots at 88% of 2019 levels [3] - Major airports like Shanghai and Guangzhou are seeing varying recovery rates, with Shanghai's international routes just 8.5% below 2019 levels, while Guangzhou's domestic slots are 21% above 2019 levels [4][5] Summary by Sections Capacity and Slot Plans - CAAC's slot plans for the 2024 Winter/Spring season indicate a 1% decline in domestic slots YoY, while international slots are set to increase by 5% YoY [2] - Non-domestic capacity is recovering to pre-Covid levels, with adjustments possible during the flight season [2] Airline Performance - Domestic slots for Chinese airlines are projected to decrease by 7% YoY, with the Big 3 airlines seeing a decline of 4% to 2% YoY [3] - Compared to 2019, the Spring season shows a 51% increase in domestic slots for all Chinese airlines [3] Airport Insights - Shanghai's international routes are recovering faster than foreign airlines, with total non-domestic slots approximately double that of Beijing and Guangzhou [4] - Guangzhou's domestic slots are 21% above 2019 levels, while international routes for Chinese airlines are 20% below 2019 levels [4] - Beijing's domestic slots are 26% above 2019 levels, but international routes remain significantly below 2019 levels [4]

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