shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： China Railway Group (0390.HK, 390 HK) Stock Rating Overweight Industry View Attractive Price target HK$6.20 Shr price, close (Oct 10, 2024) HK$4.25 52-Week Range HK$5.12-3.06 Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 4,525 Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb149,623 EV, curr (mn) Rmb314,288 Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$90 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： M Idea China Railway Group ...

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 M Update | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 15 Oct 2024 18:53:38 ET │ 10 pages Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SS) Adding Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch shuinu9870 View original report on this Catalyst Watch Direction: Upside 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Duration: Within 30 Days (expires 15 Nov 2024) Catalyst: Strong alumina price With limited alumina and bauxite supply, we expect alumina pri ...

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Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to China Unicom [3][10][17] - The price target is set at HK$6.50, indicating a downside of 7% from the current price of HK$6.96 [3][10] Core Insights - China Unicom showcased a flagship 5G smart factory project with Paideer Battery, which significantly improves production efficiency by reducing production tasks from two days to just two hours [3][10] - The company views data as a crucial driver for future growth, engaging in the construction of third-party trustable data spaces to enhance AI development [3][10] - China Unicom is enhancing its receivables collection process by switching to continuous collection throughout the year, aiming for better cash flow management [3][10] Financial Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2023, the projected revenue is Rmb 372.6 billion, with an EBITDA of Rmb 82.7 billion [3][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected to grow from Rmb 0.61 in 2023 to Rmb 0.82 by 2026 [3][10] - The net income is expected to increase from Rmb 18.7 billion in 2023 to Rmb 25.0 billion by 2026 [3][10] Market Position - China Unicom's market capitalization is currently US$27.4 billion, with an enterprise value of US$12.1 billion [3][10] - The company has a significant stake in China Tower, valued at HK$0.9 per share, contributing to its overall valuation [10]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a forecast for low, positive headline CPI inflation through the rest of the year, with a full-year 2024 CPI inflation forecast at 0.4% and PPI deflation expected to continue through year-end [8][9]. Core Insights - Domestic supply and demand imbalances persist, with a lack of significant policy redirection impacting inflation dynamics. September CPI moderated to 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI deflation intensified, dropping 2.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - Recent policy measures from the Chinese government focus on monetary easing, fiscal support, and structural rebalancing, but direct consumption support remains limited, indicating a cautious approach to stimulating demand [9][11]. - The report highlights weak consumption linked to low income expectations and high household saving rates, suggesting that more robust measures are needed to stabilize the housing market and improve consumer confidence [10][11]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, down from 0.6% in August, with a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 0.1% [2][12]. - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while vehicle fuel prices fell by 2.8% [2][12]. - Core CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing sluggish domestic demand conditions [2][7]. PPI Analysis - PPI deflation intensified, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8%, compared to -1.8% in August [3][13]. - Consumer goods PPI fell by 1.3% year-on-year, while producer goods PPI dropped by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating broad-based declines across various sectors [3][6]. Policy Measures - The Chinese government has initiated a new round of policy easing, focusing on risk mitigation rather than significant supply-demand rebalancing [9][11]. - The recent Ministry of Finance press conference did not announce the size of the fiscal package, indicating a cautious approach to fiscal stimulus [7][9]. - The report suggests that while there are signals of policy shifts, they are insufficient to alleviate deflationary pressures in the economy [11][12].

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the technology sector, specifically software and services, is "In-Line" [1][2]. Core Insights - The 3Q24 survey indicates an acceleration in reseller business growth, primarily driven by cloud subscriptions, leading to a raised growth forecast of 26% for cloud revenue in 3Q24 [1]. - IT budget growth is stable at 3.4% for 2024, with an initial forecast of 3.6% for 2025, reflecting slight signs of acceleration in the IT spending environment despite near-term uncertainties [1]. - The survey results show that Microsoft is well-positioned to capture a share of the growing GenAI spend, with stable software growth expectations for CY24 and moderate acceleration anticipated for CY25 [1]. Company Ratings - Companies rated as "Overweight" include Amadeus, Compugroup, Dassault Systemes, Sage, SAP, and Trustpilot [2]. - Companies rated as "Equal-weight" include Nemetschek, TeamViewer, and Capgemini [2]. - Companies rated as "Underweight" include Fortnox, Hexagon AB, Sinch, and Temenos [2]. Price Performance - Temenos was the best performer last week with a 7% increase, while Fortnox was the worst performer with a 6% decrease [1]. - Year-to-date, Trustpilot and SAP have shown significant price increases of 54% and 48% respectively, while Worldline has decreased by 58% [5][6]. Company Guidance - SAP's guidance for FY24 includes a non-IFRS operating profit of €7.6-7.9 billion, with a free cash flow expectation of approximately €3.5 billion [12][14]. - Adyen anticipates revenue growth of 11-14.5% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin expected to exceed 50% by 2026 [12][14]. - Temenos expects an ARR growth of approximately 13% and free cash flow growth of over 16% [16]. Upcoming Events - Key upcoming earnings reports include SAP and Temenos for 3Q24, scheduled for October 21, 2024 [9]. - Other notable reports include Atos and Fortnox on October 24, 2024 [9].