Investment Rating - The report assigns a price target of HK$20.20 for Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HK$16.88 as of October 14, 2024 [4]. Core Insights - Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd has guided for a 9M24 net profit range of Rmb1.85-2.25 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 38-67%. The reported net profit for 1H24 was Rmb1.38 billion, suggesting a 3Q24 net profit range of Rmb467-867 million, compared to Rmb684 million in 2Q24. The company needs to achieve the upper end of this guidance to meet market expectations [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The fiscal year ending for Shandong Gold is December 2023, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of Rmb0.52 for FY23, increasing to Rmb0.86 in FY24e and Rmb1.25 in FY25e [4]. - Revenue projections are Rmb59.275 billion for FY23, Rmb63.878 billion for FY24e, and Rmb71.614 billion for FY25e [4]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from Rmb8.414 billion in FY23 to Rmb12.058 billion in FY24e and Rmb15.450 billion in FY25e [4]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently Rmb114.234 million, with an enterprise value of Rmb161.343 million [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 25.9 for FY23, decreasing to 17.8 for FY24e and further to 12.3 for FY25e [4]. - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 16.8 in FY23 to 12.8 in FY24e and 9.5 in FY25e [4].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views - The report highlights three key remaining issues in China's economy: demand shortfall, fiscal challenges, and the debate between investment and consumption [4] - Recent policy easing measures are expected to help stabilize the property market but face challenges in boosting prices and restoring demand [4] - The property sector's drag on demand will likely result in economic growth falling short of targets [4] - Over-reliance on investment to fill demand gaps may lead to persistent overcapacity and deflationary pressures [4] - Consumption is a viable alternative growth driver but measures to boost it have been limited so far [4] Property Market Analysis - Recent property easing measures may help prevent further price declines but property activity will continue to drag on economic growth [12] - The property market tone shift is seen as meaningful support for sustained improvement in home sales [12] - Housing inventory remains high with 43 million units in primary and secondary markets and 8 million units under construction [12] - Inventory reduction will take considerable time given the current sales run rate of 8 million units annually [12] - Reducing new housing construction will further weigh on property fixed asset investment and create additional demand gaps [13] Fiscal Situation - Fiscal expansion is constrained by deflationary pressures and already high public debt levels [21] - Land sale revenues have shrunk by about one-third since 2021 peak, putting pressure on local government finances [22] - Tax revenue growth has slowed significantly, with 3-month average growth at -5.9% in August compared to 6.2% average in 2016-19 [22] - A supplementary budget of RMB 1-2 trillion is expected to be approved, potentially expanding the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.6% of GDP [27] Growth Composition Debate - Over-reliance on investment as a growth driver continues to create overcapacity and exacerbate deflationary pressures [30] - China's investment-to-GDP ratio at 41% is significantly higher than Japan's 32% in 1993 [30] - GDP deflator has averaged -0.6% over the past five quarters, worse than Japan's +1.6% in 1990-94 [30] - Shifting to consumption-driven growth could help alleviate deflationary pressures and normalize nominal GDP growth [31] Economic Indicators - Manufacturing and infrastructure FAI grew at 8% and 6.2% respectively, while property FAI declined by 10.2% [17] - Retail sales growth was 2.1%, significantly lower than investment growth rates [17] - Industrial, infrastructure and service loans increased by RMB 7.6 trillion since Q2 2019, offsetting RMB 6.4 trillion decline in property loans [17]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The primary economic challenge is the debt-deflation cycle, with deflationary pressures driven by real estate sector adjustments and excessive investment policies [8] - To break the debt-deflation cycle, a RMB 10 trillion fiscal stimulus package targeting consumption and real estate inventory clearance is deemed necessary [4] - Policymakers are hesitant to implement forceful fiscal easing due to high public debt levels (102% of GDP) and declining revenues [10][13] - Short-term fiscal measures are expected to be limited, but strong fiscal easing could be triggered if social dynamics weaken significantly [4] Fiscal Policy Analysis - China's public debt-to-GDP ratio has risen sharply from 73% in 2019 to 102% in Q2 2024, the largest increase among major economies [10][13] - Government revenue has declined from 22.4% of GDP pre-pandemic to 18.1%, with tax revenue falling from 17% to 13.5% of GDP [14][16] - Land sales revenue has contracted by 1.9 percentage points of GDP since Q1 2021, significantly impacting local government spending capacity [14] Policy Preferences - Policymakers continue to favor investment over consumption, focusing on manufacturing and infrastructure to fill the demand gap left by real estate [20] - This investment-driven approach risks exacerbating overcapacity, deflation, and debt-to-GDP ratio increases [20] - The report suggests a shift towards consumption stimulus through social security spending, trade-in programs, and inventory clearance would be more effective [33] Potential Scenarios 1) **Status Quo (4.5-5% GDP growth target, investment-focused)**: Continued deflation, accelerating debt-to-GDP ratio, worsening corporate returns [27][34] 2) **Growth Slowdown (1-2% GDP growth)**: Milder deflation than Scenario 1, slower debt growth, but faster social stability deterioration [28][34] 3) **Consumption-Driven (4-4.5% GDP growth)**: Moderate inflation recovery, stabilized debt ratio, improved corporate returns and social stability [33][34] Fiscal Stimulus Outlook - A RMB 1-2 trillion supplementary budget is expected, with only RMB 1 trillion (0.8% of GDP) for direct demand stimulus [23] - The ideal stimulus package would require RMB 6-7 trillion for social welfare spending and RMB 3-4 trillion for real estate inventory clearance [23]

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 M Update | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to China Unicom [3][10][17] - The price target is set at HK$6.50, indicating a downside of 7% from the current price of HK$6.96 [3][10] Core Insights - China Unicom showcased a flagship 5G smart factory project with Paideer Battery, which significantly improves production efficiency by reducing production tasks from two days to just two hours [3][10] - The company views data as a crucial driver for future growth, engaging in the construction of third-party trustable data spaces to enhance AI development [3][10] - China Unicom is enhancing its receivables collection process by switching to continuous collection throughout the year, aiming for better cash flow management [3][10] Financial Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2023, the projected revenue is Rmb 372.6 billion, with an EBITDA of Rmb 82.7 billion [3][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected to grow from Rmb 0.61 in 2023 to Rmb 0.82 by 2026 [3][10] - The net income is expected to increase from Rmb 18.7 billion in 2023 to Rmb 25.0 billion by 2026 [3][10] Market Position - China Unicom's market capitalization is currently US$27.4 billion, with an enterprise value of US$12.1 billion [3][10] - The company has a significant stake in China Tower, valued at HK$0.9 per share, contributing to its overall valuation [10]

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： October 14, 2024 10:55 AM GMT M Update Chinese Airports | Asia Pacific Chart in the Spotlight: Traffic Recovery at Key Chinese Airports shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Traffic growth softened to teens YoY in September after the summer peak, with 6-7% YoY domestic traffic growth and ~50% YoY non-domestic tra ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on QNB shares and highlights a preference for Saudi banks trading at attractive valuations [17][28]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have recently impacted MENA stocks, with a focus on price target sensitivity to Cost of Equity (COE) assumptions, particularly for growth stocks and those with leveraged balance sheets [2][6]. - The report identifies Al Rajhi Bank, Alinma Bank, and APPC as having the highest price target sensitivity to a 100bps increase in COE, while also being key beneficiaries of reduced geopolitical risk [2][32]. - The report emphasizes that unless the current conflict escalates to involve GCC countries directly, the financial market impact is expected to remain limited [2][6]. Financials - MENA banks have negligible direct exposure to troubled regions, with indirect exposure linked to system liquidity and oil prices [17]. - QNB is highlighted as a defensive stock due to its strong shareholder backing and diversified operations, while Saudi banks like SABB and RIBL are noted for attractive valuations [17][28]. Real Estate - The UAE property sector, particularly in Dubai, is viewed as a safe haven during geopolitical uncertainty, with strong rental yields and visibility from existing property backlogs [18]. - Aldar's portfolio is considered more defensive due to its exposure to residential and commercial leasing [18]. Healthcare & Pharma - The Saudi healthcare sector is deemed defensive due to domestic exposure and critical demand, with Sulaiman Al Habib identified as a key player [19]. - Saudi pharma producers face supply chain risks due to reliance on imported raw materials [19]. TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) - stc is recognized as the most defensive name in the TMT space, supported by a visible dividend yield and strong liquidity [20]. - Media companies like Al Arabia and MBC Group are sensitive to regional instability due to their reliance on advertising spend [20]. Consumer - Almarai is highlighted as a defensive consumer staple due to its resilient category exposure and low foreign ownership [22]. - Americana and Seera are identified as more exposed to geopolitical risks, particularly in tourism [22]. Industrials - The report notes that Dubai-based industrial names are less vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, while Saudi companies like ACWA Power are expected to be relatively defensive [22]. Energy and Petchems - ADNOC Drilling and ADNOC Gas are viewed as defensive stocks in the petchem space, while Kayan and APPC are considered less defensive due to their leveraged balance sheets [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a forecast for low, positive headline CPI inflation through the rest of the year, with a full-year 2024 CPI inflation forecast at 0.4% and PPI deflation expected to continue through year-end [8][9]. Core Insights - Domestic supply and demand imbalances persist, with a lack of significant policy redirection impacting inflation dynamics. September CPI moderated to 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI deflation intensified, dropping 2.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - Recent policy measures from the Chinese government focus on monetary easing, fiscal support, and structural rebalancing, but direct consumption support remains limited, indicating a cautious approach to stimulating demand [9][11]. - The report highlights weak consumption linked to low income expectations and high household saving rates, suggesting that more robust measures are needed to stabilize the housing market and improve consumer confidence [10][11]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, down from 0.6% in August, with a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 0.1% [2][12]. - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while vehicle fuel prices fell by 2.8% [2][12]. - Core CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing sluggish domestic demand conditions [2][7]. PPI Analysis - PPI deflation intensified, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8%, compared to -1.8% in August [3][13]. - Consumer goods PPI fell by 1.3% year-on-year, while producer goods PPI dropped by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating broad-based declines across various sectors [3][6]. Policy Measures - The Chinese government has initiated a new round of policy easing, focusing on risk mitigation rather than significant supply-demand rebalancing [9][11]. - The recent Ministry of Finance press conference did not announce the size of the fiscal package, indicating a cautious approach to fiscal stimulus [7][9]. - The report suggests that while there are signals of policy shifts, they are insufficient to alleviate deflationary pressures in the economy [11][12].

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the technology sector, specifically software and services, is "In-Line" [1][2]. Core Insights - The 3Q24 survey indicates an acceleration in reseller business growth, primarily driven by cloud subscriptions, leading to a raised growth forecast of 26% for cloud revenue in 3Q24 [1]. - IT budget growth is stable at 3.4% for 2024, with an initial forecast of 3.6% for 2025, reflecting slight signs of acceleration in the IT spending environment despite near-term uncertainties [1]. - The survey results show that Microsoft is well-positioned to capture a share of the growing GenAI spend, with stable software growth expectations for CY24 and moderate acceleration anticipated for CY25 [1]. Company Ratings - Companies rated as "Overweight" include Amadeus, Compugroup, Dassault Systemes, Sage, SAP, and Trustpilot [2]. - Companies rated as "Equal-weight" include Nemetschek, TeamViewer, and Capgemini [2]. - Companies rated as "Underweight" include Fortnox, Hexagon AB, Sinch, and Temenos [2]. Price Performance - Temenos was the best performer last week with a 7% increase, while Fortnox was the worst performer with a 6% decrease [1]. - Year-to-date, Trustpilot and SAP have shown significant price increases of 54% and 48% respectively, while Worldline has decreased by 58% [5][6]. Company Guidance - SAP's guidance for FY24 includes a non-IFRS operating profit of €7.6-7.9 billion, with a free cash flow expectation of approximately €3.5 billion [12][14]. - Adyen anticipates revenue growth of 11-14.5% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin expected to exceed 50% by 2026 [12][14]. - Temenos expects an ARR growth of approximately 13% and free cash flow growth of over 16% [16]. Upcoming Events - Key upcoming earnings reports include SAP and Temenos for 3Q24, scheduled for October 21, 2024 [9]. - Other notable reports include Atos and Fortnox on October 24, 2024 [9].

October 13, 2024 10:00 PM GMT M Idea Three in Three | Asia Pacific Three Actionable Ideas Meituan – OW | Reliance Industries – OW | AIA Group – OW OW – Meituan (3690.HK): We raise 2026-28 non-IFRS net profit estimates 15-25% as the government's policy pivot reinforces our conviction for CLC GTV to double over 2024-29. For 3Q24, we see core revenue and operating profit up 19% and 37%, respectively, defying a weak macroenvironment. Reiterate OW, raise PT to HK$215. OW – Reliance Industries (RELI.NS): Cyclical ...