| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------|--------------------|-------|-------|-------| | ((0)JLL | | SEE A BRIGHTER WAY | | | | | 中 量 聯 行 | | 向 光 而 为 | | | | | 2024/2025酒店运营商 信心指数调研 | | | | | | | 中国市场 | | | | | | | 酒店及旅游地产事业部 | | | | | | 目录 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|---------|-------|-------|-------| | 01 调研样本 \n02 业绩展望 2024-2025 | 03 \n05 | | | | | | | | | | | 03 劳动力与人才 | 14 | | | | | 04 餐饮（不包含 MICE ） | 18 | | | | | 0 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the semiconductor packaging and testing industry, specifically focusing on traditional and advanced packaging processes [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Utilization Rates - Traditional packaging utilization rates have declined from approximately 80% in Q2 to 70-80% currently, with expectations to recover to around 80% by Q4 based on customer forecasts [1][2]. - Advanced packaging utilization remains strong at over 80%, with some facilities in mainland China operating above 90% due to limited supply [1][2]. - Major companies' utilization rates include: - Changdian Technology: Traditional packaging ~80%, Advanced packaging >85% - Huatian Technology: Varies by location, with some plants at 70% and others at 90% - Tongfu Microelectronics: Traditional packaging 75-80%, Advanced packaging ~85% [2][4]. Inventory Levels - Customer inventory levels have increased by about one month due to a recovery in consumer demand, but overall levels remain below healthy thresholds, which were previously around six months [1][2]. - Different product categories exhibit varying inventory levels, with analog and storage products showing higher inventory compared to traditional low-end products [2][4]. Market Outlook - The industrial and automation sectors are currently experiencing poor market conditions, with recovery expected only by Q2-Q3 of next year. In contrast, the consumer sector is showing signs of improvement, particularly in wearables and smartphones [2][4]. - The computing sector is performing well, with domestic manufacturers like Loongson and Feiteng actively seeking OSAT services, achieving utilization rates above 90% [2][4]. Pricing Trends - Overall packaging prices have decreased by approximately 15% since 2022, with expectations for a price increase in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 as OSAT companies negotiate with design firms [2][3][4]. Capital Expenditure Plans - Major OSAT companies are shifting their capital expenditure focus towards advanced packaging, with expected growth of around 20% in this segment for Changdian Technology [4]. - Domestic companies like Tongfu and Shenghe are ramping up production capabilities for advanced packaging, with specific monthly production targets set [4]. Competitive Landscape - Changdian Technology's market share is declining due to management issues, while Tongfu Microelectronics is gaining ground, particularly with significant contributions from major clients like AMD [4][5]. - The trend of design companies establishing their own packaging facilities (Fab-Lite model) may disrupt traditional OSAT business models, although this transition will take 2-3 years for smaller firms to achieve adequate production capabilities [6]. Testing Capacity - Testing services are performing better than packaging, with overall testing utilization around 80% and digital circuit testing at 90% [6]. Future Projections - The OSAT industry is expected to stabilize over the next 1-2 years, with a more balanced supply chain emerging as domestic manufacturers continue to capture market share from Taiwanese firms [9]. Additional Important Insights - The advanced packaging segment is currently in a supply-demand imbalance, with limited certified OSAT providers in mainland China [8]. - The transition from traditional packaging methods to advanced solutions like Fan-out is gaining traction among design companies, indicating a shift in industry practices [8].

【机构调研】这家航天七院唯一上市平 台资产注入可期 2024-10-15 19:36:58 调研要点 : ①这家航天七院唯一上市平台资产注入可期，公司 电子功能材料板块聚焦高性能膜材料本土替代，压 力测试膜产品打破海外厂商垄断； ②风险提示：调研内容仅为机构与上市公司间的业 务交流，不构成投研观点，信息以上市公司公告和 分析师公开报告为准。 航天智造于10月15日举行业绩说明会，公司电子功 能材料聚焦PCB和FPC领域关键高性能膜材料本土 替代，开发了电磁波屏蔽膜、压力测试膜、导电胶 膜等系列产品，其中压力测试膜获评河北省制造 业"单项冠军"产品，打破海外厂商垄断，对实现产 业链自主可控具有重要意义。 目前，公司电子功能材料产品市场正处于客户开发 和成长阶段，已与京东方、天马微电子、比亚迪等 电子、半导体领域的龙头企业建立稳定合作关系。 2024年上半年，以压力测试膜为主导的电子功能材 料市场正在进一步拓展，收入1777.68万元，同比 增长44.71%。 调研过程中，公司表示，作为航天七院唯一上市平 台，公司致力于推动航天技术在民用产业的应用， 逐步形成了特种能源、精密机械和智能控制"三位 一体"的技术能力 ...

那么我们今天也是请到了福建厦门广州和成都的三位专家为我们进行分享那么首先我们有请的是福建的专家为专家老师能听到吗啊可以能听到 嗯好呀好呀那我们先跟踪一下那个已救换新政策吧自从9月底就是咱们中央发布那个已救换新政策以来现在咱们福建省这个政策落实了吗现在是就厦门这边吧厦门这边算是说已救换新这个有在动就是从9月就是有一些这个手里有国三的这个 这种港口车有开始陆续在以旧换新这么在报往上报也有在就是有在这个换但是量没有很大那具体的情况您这边再展开一下吧包括说赛门这边国三车的存量以及现在已经去申报以旧换新的量大概有多少 区分到已救换金的量是没有很大然后我这边也暂时也没有办法拿到比较细的一个数据因为前面是有让大家去提这个需求但是具体的量它这个没有对外去宣布去公开去开放那我们9月份就是整个厦门厦门存量的这个我刚才有总结了一下是两三千台吧就是国三的政策然后9月份放的也不多就是 整体就是摆来摆吧这样子没有很多因为现在又一个物流场景的一个比较萧条嘛所以说现在就是这个换而且换的这个港口车这一波大部分客户换的还是换油车他们这个换港口的这种国商车去换新能源的还比较少 明白这是您刚才讲的这一百多台是报废之后新购车的数量是吧他就是等于是这种 ...

【机构调研】这家通讯连接器供应商或 将受益于英伟达GB200规模出货 2024-10-14 20:03:49 调研要点 : ①这家通讯连接器供应商或将受益于GB200规模出 货，公司是安费诺的重要供应商，液冷产品已进入 客户测试阶段； ②风险提示：调研内容仅为机构与上市公司间的业 务交流，不构成投研观点，信息以上市公司公告和 分析师公开报告为准。 鼎通科技于10月10日举行业绩说明会，公司表示， 三季度以来公司客户订单需求旺盛，通讯连接器板 块订单需求旺盛，依旧占了公司营业收入的较高份 额。公司是安费诺的重要供应商之一，安费诺三季 度的订单较为旺盛，目前正常开展合作。 调研过程中，公司透露，伴随着连接器的速率的提 升，目前液冷是连接器散热效果较好的一种方案， 价值量也非常高，公司已在今年上半年研发送样， 客户正在测试阶段。 英伟达在2024GTC大会上发布GB200超级芯片并推 出基于GB200的NVL72机柜，高速铜互联在其中得 到较多应用。GB200高速铜连接价值量前期或主要 集中于以安费诺为代表的国际连接器巨头厂商。国 内对于224G高速铜线、I/O连接器Cage等高速产品 c套需求将增加。 天风证券分 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the heavy truck market in Hebei province, China, with discussions on the impact of government policies, sales trends, and market conditions for various types of vehicles including traditional fuel trucks, natural gas vehicles, and new energy vehicles [1][2][3][4][5][6][18]. Key Points and Arguments Government Policies - The implementation of the National III vehicle scrappage subsidy policy in Hebei has minimal impact due to the lack of existing National III vehicles in the region [2][2]. - The National III vehicle scrappage policy has not significantly boosted sales, as most customers do not own such vehicles [2][2]. Sales Performance - Heavy truck sales in Hebei increased from 40 units in August to 51 units in September, but this is still lower compared to the same period last year [3][3]. - October sales are expected to remain flat compared to September, with a year-on-year decline anticipated [3][3][23][23]. - The overall market for heavy trucks is currently in a low phase, particularly in coal transportation, with freight rates remaining low [4][4][5][5]. Market Conditions - The freight market in Hebei is described as being in a low valley, with coal transportation rates around 140 RMB per ton, down from 170 RMB during peak times last year [4][4]. - There is an expectation of a gradual increase in coal transportation from Xinjiang in the fourth quarter, but overall shipment volumes are not expected to rise significantly [5][5]. Vehicle Sales Trends - Sales of natural gas vehicles have stabilized, while new energy vehicle sales are limited to municipal applications, primarily for water trucks and recovery vehicles [6][6][7][7]. - The price of natural gas vehicles has not changed significantly, while fuel vehicles have seen promotional price reductions of 10,000 to 20,000 RMB [8][8][11][11]. - The overall price of new energy vehicles has decreased, attributed to lower battery costs, with the average price of the 423 electric vehicle model around 580,000 RMB [9][9][19][19]. Future Outlook - The future development of charging and battery swapping modes is expected to coexist, with battery swapping potentially having advantages in specific scenarios like steel mills [10][10]. - The market for new energy vehicles is anticipated to grow, especially for short-distance transportation, as battery technology improves [35][35]. Inventory and Pricing - Current inventory levels have decreased significantly, with a total of 88 units in stock, the lowest since 2020 [13][13]. - The inventory structure is deemed unreasonable, with high-end models facing slow sales due to low freight rates [25][25]. - The average prices for different vehicle types are approximately 500,000 RMB for new energy vehicles, 330,000 RMB for natural gas vehicles, and 26,000 to 27,000 RMB for fuel vehicles [34][34][34]. Customer Behavior - Customers are increasingly considering operational costs and the return on investment when purchasing vehicles, with a preference for lower-cost options like second-hand fuel vehicles [24][24][25][25]. Additional Important Insights - The heavy truck market is facing challenges due to fluctuating fuel prices and low freight rates, impacting customer purchasing decisions [30][30][31][31]. - The transition from fuel vehicles to natural gas vehicles has slowed, with many customers opting to wait for better market conditions [32][32]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with expectations of limited improvement in sales and market conditions in the near term [23][23].

本次会议为洪泽研究闭门会议 仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经洪泽研究书面许可 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布、转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改等如有上述未经授权的侵权行为红泽研究保留追究相关方法律责任的权利红泽研究不承担因转发、转载、复制、传播引起的任何损失和责任各位出席人大家好我是红泽的白酒分析师 那么这周的话国庆节刚刚结束然后我们也是马上的去找到全国各地的这种经销商也是我们长期的合作伙伴都已经持续跟踪下来好多年了然后找他们去要一些物流日报跟他们去聊一聊今年的这个中秋国庆啊合并在一起到底白酒行业是个什么情况那连续开了5场电话会吧 然后我把这些电话会当中给我印象比较深的一些点然后跟各位投资人再汇报一下第一个部分我觉得高端酒的话今年需求肯定是非常疲软了我们回过头来看的话2023年整个白酒行业这边是有量的增长但是价掉的非常凶那么2024年变成价格基本上批价不动但是量掉的非常凶所以说一年把价格还了回去一年把量还了回去 就可以列成大部分消费品可能疫情三年业绩暴雷但是白酒很稳定嘛但是走出疫情之后这笔债还是得还的嘛那么在这个里面的话我们看到几个特征啊第一个的话是大部分的酒企回款进度要比去年更慢了整体看下来 ...

本期视频就分享到这里啦拜拜 那么按照惯例呢我们也是会在每个月的中上旬会去聊六位南北方不同区域的众海滨销商对于中端的一个景气度进行持续的跟踪那么自从七月份出台了那个国三已旧换新的政策以来一直到八月底四部委去出台了一个政策的记者那么我们也是观察到九月开始地方政府陆续的真正的开始去落实这个已旧换新的政策 所以我们团队也是认为就是Q4的时候仲凯的销量很可能会有一定的反弹所以我们今天也是请到了北方河北河南和山东区的三位专家来为我们进行一个分享那会议秘书首先介入一下河北的专家吧喂你好 哎专家你好行那首先针对已就换新的政策咱们河北这边现在这个政策是已经落实了吗执行的进展怎么样您指的是国家的国三车报废补贴那个政策吗对对这个政策已经发布了但是对整个河北来讲其实影响并不大因为河北这个区域本身在 很早的时候就已经实现了环保比较靠前因为它经济地环保治理的作用吧这个国三车基本上在我们这个区域已经接近为零了就是国三车的大车的手续所以说没有很明显的对我们区域上没有很明显的拉动作用我们这个区域连国五都不让进市了 明白行然后据我了解像上海这样的个别的一些省市区可能对于国四它会有一些地方政府上面的补贴咱们河北会有吗没有没有目前国三国四国五以及国 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The company is a supplier of functional components in the consumer electronics sector, now entering the sensor field with laser gas sensors [1] - The company has begun small-scale shipments of laser gas sensor products and expects to gradually start production from its self-built capacity within the year [1] Core Points and Arguments - The company is maintaining stable development in its functional components segment while launching new projects, including lithium battery composite materials and laser gas sensors [1] - The functional components are primarily used in two major sectors: consumer electronics and new energy, with downstream customers including manufacturers of components for consumer electronics, new energy, and energy storage systems [1] - The company has established itself as a core supplier for leading manufacturers in consumer electronics batteries, new energy batteries, and laptop production [1] - The company is focused on monitoring the latest trends in downstream industries to better meet customer demand upgrades and enhance the R&D and production of structural functional components [1] Additional Important Information - The company has established two subsidiaries: Yingtelei Semiconductor Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. for R&D and sales, and Kecuan Photonics Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. for building its own production capacity [1] - The laser gas sensor products have started small-scale shipments, with self-built capacity expected to gradually commence production by the end of 2024 [1] - Regarding the composite aluminum foil project, the company has set up wholly-owned subsidiaries in Qingdao and Huai'an, with the Qingdao subsidiary focusing on R&D and validation, while the Huai'an subsidiary is responsible for building the production base [1] - The registered capital for the Huai'an production base is 100 million yuan, with an initial plan for 8 million to 10 million square meters of composite aluminum foil capacity, expected to be rolled out stepwise based on market demand and validation, aiming for completion around 2026 [1] Risk Warning - The content of the research is based on business exchanges between institutions and the listed company and does not constitute investment research opinions; information should be verified against the company's announcements and analysts' public reports [1]

Industry/Company Involved - No specific industry or company mentioned in the provided content [1]. Core Views and Arguments - No core views or arguments provided in the content [1]. Other Important Content - No other important content provided in the content [1].