Group 1: Market Overview - The US consumer sector has seen an overall increase of 16% in 2024, underperforming the S&P 500 index which rose by 28%[5] - The retail sector, particularly daily consumer goods and tobacco, outperformed the S&P 500 with increases of 45% and 32% respectively[11] - Inflation remains high, but consumer companies are gradually raising prices, leading to a recovery in profits[5] Group 2: Consumer Macro Trends - Despite a slowdown in consumer growth, the underlying consumer base remains robust, with CPI showing positive growth and per capita income increasing healthily[18] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 74 in December, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence[20] - Disposable income grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, supporting future consumption growth[23] Group 3: Retail Sales Performance - Total retail and food service sales in October reached $718.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8%[26] - Online retail sales grew by 7% in October, maintaining a strong growth trend throughout the year[26] - Sales at gas stations have declined sharply, primarily due to falling oil prices, impacting overall retail performance[26] Group 4: ETF Recommendation - The XLP ETF, which tracks leading companies in the daily consumer goods sector, has doubled in value over the past decade, achieving an annualized return of 8%[31] - The current PE-TTM for the XLP index is 26.2x, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels[39] - The top holdings in XLP include Procter & Gamble, Costco, and Walmart, which dominate their respective markets[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mobvista (1860 HK) with a 6-month target price of HKD 12 8 [1][4] Core Views - Mobvista's Q3 2024 revenue reached $416 million, a 54 6% YoY increase, with adjusted net profit of $11 million, up 162 4% YoY [1] - The company's programmatic advertising platform, Mintegral, contributed $402 million in revenue, a 57 6% YoY increase, driven by its smart bidding capabilities and expansion into new verticals [2] - Mintegral's game category revenue grew 46 5% YoY to $295 million, accounting for 73 2% of its total revenue, while non-game categories surged 98 5% YoY to $108 million, with e-commerce being a key driver [2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0 5pp YoY to 21 1%, supported by a 0 9pp increase in ad tech gross margin to 20 6% [2] - Mobvista has achieved consecutive quarters of profitability since Q4 2022, demonstrating strong scale effects [2] Financial and Valuation Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from $894 4 million in 2024E to $2,084 9 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 23 9% [3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from $9 7 million in 2024E to $82 9 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 71 4% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from $0 02 in 2024E to $0 05 in 2026E [3] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 49 3x in 2024E to 22 2x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [3] Business Performance and Strategy - Mintegral's smart bidding system has gained market validation, with ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) becoming a mainstream choice for developers [2] - The platform has expanded into mid-to-hardcore games and non-game verticals such as e-commerce and social, driving diversification [2] - Non-programmatic ad revenue declined slightly by 0 5% YoY to $9 94 million, while marketing tech revenue grew 1% YoY to $4 million, supported by overseas expansion and cost optimization [2] Financial Metrics - Gross margin for ad tech improved to 20 6%, while marketing tech gross margin declined by 13 5pp to 68 9% [2] - Sales expenses increased by 32 7% YoY due to rising bidding costs, and R&D expenses surged 59 7% YoY due to investments in the smart bidding system [2] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 7 6% in 2024E to 13 0% in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability [10]

Industry Overview - Autonomous driving is the core competitiveness: In the fuel vehicle era, companies like Toyota and Volkswagen dominated with high barriers due to complex mechanical structures and extensive patent holdings In the electrification era, companies like BYD simplified car structures, lowering entry barriers In the smart era, Tesla leads with valuations surpassing traditional automakers despite lower sales volumes [2] - 2024 marks the first year of intelligent driving: Tesla achieved a breakthrough with end-to-end solutions, followed by domestic companies like NIO, XPeng, and Huawei, which are also launching end-to-end intelligent driving systems High-end intelligent driving is becoming a standard feature in models priced below 200,000 RMB [2] - China is the largest passenger car market globally, with 21.7 million units sold in 2023, of which 12.4 million were intelligent vehicles, representing a penetration rate of 57.1% By 2026 and 2030, intelligent vehicle sales are expected to reach 20.4 million and 29.8 million units, with penetration rates of 81.2% and 99.7%, respectively [10] - High-level autonomous driving penetration reached 12% in 2023 and is expected to exceed 80% by 2030 [10] Technological Advancements in Autonomous Driving - End-to-end autonomous driving is expected to become the ultimate solution for high-level autonomous driving, integrating multiple algorithms to improve system performance and efficiency Tesla's FSD Beta V12, launched in August 2023, and domestic solutions from Huawei and XPeng are driving the maturity of NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) [21] - The cost of autonomous driving technology is decreasing: Tesla reduced costs by developing its own chips and simplifying hardware, while companies like Huawei and XPeng are also reducing hardware configurations [18] - Autonomous driving is categorized into levels L0 to L5, with L4 and L5 representing high and full automation, respectively NOA functionality is a significant milestone in the evolution of autonomous driving, reducing driver fatigue and appealing to long-distance commuters [6] Policy and Market Trends - China is improving its legal framework for autonomous driving, covering licensing, pilot zones, and commercial operation standards While L3 autonomous driving is cautiously approved, many automakers already possess L3 and L4 technology [15] - In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other departments issued policies to promote the development of intelligent connected vehicles, including pilot programs for autonomous driving in 20 cities [16] - The penetration of high-speed NOA in new energy vehicles has reached the 100,000-200,000 RMB price range, with city NOA expected to drop below 200,000 RMB by 2025 [18] Company Recommendations - Focus on the vehicle sector for intelligent driving opportunities: Companies like Tesla and XPeng are leading the industry with mature NOA solutions, while BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motors are excelling in electrification and export strategies [25] - Tesla: Expected to see a 20%-30% sales growth in 2025, driven by the new Model Q and advancements in autonomous driving technology, including FSD and Robotaxi services [27] - XPeng: Entering a new product cycle with strong growth potential, supported by its advanced autonomous driving technology and organizational restructuring [29] - BYD: Leading in hybrid technology with its fifth-generation DM system, expanding globally, and increasing investments in intelligent driving technology [31][32] - Geely: Launching a strong product cycle with new models and integrating its autonomous driving solutions, including city NZP and NZP+ [33] - Great Wall Motors: Focusing on hybrid and intelligent new energy vehicles, with a strong presence in overseas markets and advanced autonomous driving systems [35] - Nexteer: A key supplier for Tesla's Model Q and a leader in steer-by-wire technology, with commercialization expected by 2025 [37]

國證國際 宏观策略 中央救市 行情能否延续至2025年 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 2024年12月 分析师： 黄焯伟 Steve (中央編號：ASG163) stevewong@sdicsi.com.hk 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 目录 中国宏观回顾 救市组合拳 预期2025年机会 國際國際 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 2 中国宏观：GDP增长放缓 国家统计局公布初步核算数据，今年第三季度中国GDP同比增长4.6%，增速较第二季度回落0.1个百分点。前三季度累计，GDP 同比增长4.8%，如果要达到目标，第四季度中国的GDP增速需要达到5.5%。 细分产业来看，工业持续趋冷，而服务业则有所回暖。前者的增速从上季度的 5.6% 回落到 4.6%，后者增速从上季度的 4.2% 加快到 4.8%。 2024年GDP增速目标定在5％左右，与2023年一致。虽然经济增长面临挑战，但政府一再强调要坚守增长目标，相信最终结果 应该距离目标不远。与其他主要国家相比，增速将维持较快水平。 中国GDP环比增长情况 主要经济体增长情况 3 来源：彭博、国证国际整理 来源：彭博、国证国际整理 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.6 for the fiscal year 2024/25, based on a 16x PE ratio [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 17.8% year-on-year for FY25H1, reaching RMB 8.804 billion, and a net profit increase of 23% to RMB 1.13 billion, outperforming expectations [2][3]. - The brand's down jacket business saw a revenue growth of 22.7% to RMB 6.06 billion, with a slight decline in gross margin [2]. - The main brand, Bosideng, achieved a revenue of RMB 5.28 billion, up 19.4%, driven by strong sales of new product categories [2][3]. - The OEM business grew by 13.4% to RMB 2.32 billion, while the women's wear segment faced a decline of 21.5% to RMB 308 million due to ongoing industry challenges [2][3]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and operational efficiency, with a reduction in the number of down jacket stores but an increase in self-operated stores [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022/23 to 2026/27, the company is projected to see significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 26.648 billion in 2024/25, growing to RMB 33.492 billion by 2026/27 [3][8]. - The net profit is expected to rise from RMB 3.601 billion in 2024/25 to RMB 4.524 billion in 2026/27, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][8]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 59% over the next few years, indicating consistent profitability [3][11].

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------------------------| | SDICSI 2024 年 12 月 2 日 毛戈平 (1318.HK) | | IPO 点评 证券研究报告 | | 中国民族高端美妆明星 | | 医美 | | | | | | ──── 毛戈平（ 1318.HK ） IPO 点评 | | | | 报告摘要 | | | | | | | | 公司概览 | | | | | | | | 毛戈平化妆品股份有限公司于 2000 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 211 for the next six months [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's core local business profit exceeded market expectations by 14% in Q3, with significant improvements in both food delivery and in-store travel services [10][11]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 19% year-on-year in Q4, with core local business and new business revenues expected to grow by 18% and 22% respectively [13]. - The company is expected to benefit from its competitive advantages in instant delivery and the ongoing digitalization of the travel sector, alongside controlled losses in overseas business ventures [13]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of HKD 276,745 million, a 26% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit reaching HKD 23,253 million, reflecting an 8.4% net profit margin [9][10]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 336,889 million, HKD 392,556 million, and HKD 447,463 million respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 22%, 17%, and 14% [9][10]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to grow to HKD 43,859 million in 2024, with a net profit margin of 13% [9][10]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholders include Wang Xing with 8.90%, BlackRock with 5.97%, and Vanguard Group with 5.20%, while other shareholders account for 74.98% [7]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a relative return of -4.79% over the past month, but a significant increase of 76.51% over the past year [8]. - The stock price as of November 29, 2024, was HKD 168.7, with a market capitalization of HKD 1,008,936 million [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Cameco (CCJ.US) with a target price of $70.81, indicating a potential upside of 20.8% from the recent closing price [1]. Core Insights - Cameco is a leading global uranium resource company, involved in the entire nuclear fuel cycle from exploration to fuel services. The company has significant uranium resources and operates several high-quality uranium mines globally, primarily in Canada and Kazakhstan [1][40]. - The uranium resource business has shown strong revenue growth, with revenues of CAD 10.55 billion, CAD 14.80 billion, and CAD 21.52 billion from 2021 to 2023, respectively. The business is expected to benefit from rising uranium prices due to increasing demand [1][77]. - The nuclear fuel services segment is also a key contributor, with a revenue of CAD 4.04 billion, CAD 3.65 billion, and CAD 4.26 billion from 2021 to 2023, maintaining a gross margin of around 30% [1][96]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Cameco is the largest uranium resource company globally, headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada, and listed on the NYSE since 1996 [40]. Main Business Segments Uranium Resource Business - The uranium resource business is the primary revenue source, accounting for over 70% of total revenue. The company has a significant market share, producing over 30 million pounds of U3O8 annually, which is more than 25% of global production [1][77]. - The company operates several high-grade uranium mines, including McArthur River and Cigar Lake, with substantial proven and probable reserves [1][79]. Nuclear Fuel Services Business - The nuclear fuel services segment includes refining, conversion, and fuel manufacturing services. Cameco operates one of the largest commercial uranium refining plants globally, with a design capacity of 24 million kgU [1][96]. Industry Analysis - The global nuclear power sector is experiencing renewed interest, with countries aiming to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050. This trend is expected to drive demand for uranium and positively impact uranium prices [1][117].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Laopu Gold with a target price of HKD 235 [1][1]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is a pioneer in the ancient gold concept, focusing on high-end gold jewelry with significant growth potential in the domestic market. The company reported revenues of RMB 3.28 billion and RMB 3.52 billion for the full year of 2023 and the first half of 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 145% and 148%. Net profits were RMB 416 million and RMB 587 million, showing year-on-year increases of 342% and 198% [1][1][14]. Company Overview - Laopu Gold, established in 2009, is a chain enterprise specializing in the processing and sale of gold jewelry, promoting the ancient gold concept. The company operates 33 stores across 14 cities in China, focusing on high-end markets [1][14]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the largest shareholders being the Xu family, holding 67.6% of the shares [16]. Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 58.6% from 2021 to 2023. The gross profit margin has remained stable at around 41.9% [25][25]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, net profit forecasts are RMB 1.12 billion, RMB 1.45 billion, and RMB 1.78 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 7.1, HKD 9.3, and HKD 11.3 [1][1]. Market Position and Strategy - Laopu Gold has positioned itself in the high-end jewelry market, with 90% of its sales coming from products priced above RMB 10,000. This is significantly higher than competitors, where such products typically account for less than 20% of sales [1][1][36]. - The company has a unique product offering, utilizing complex craftsmanship to create intricate gold jewelry, and has been recognized as one of the top ten jewelry brands favored by high-net-worth individuals in China [1][1][36]. Industry Insights - The gold jewelry market in China is projected to grow, with the ancient gold segment experiencing a compound annual growth rate of 64.6% from 2018 to 2023, reaching RMB 157.3 billion [1][1]. - The report highlights that the gold price has been on an upward trend, currently at RMB 623 per gram, which has increased by 28.9% since the beginning of the year. This trend supports the demand for gold jewelry [1][55].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $132.0 per ADR [4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 total revenue growth of 44% year-on-year, reaching 99.35 billion yuan, slightly below market expectations of 102.83 billion yuan. Online marketing services and other revenues were 49.35 billion yuan, growing 24% year-on-year, while transaction service revenue was 50.0 billion yuan, up 72% year-on-year. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.46 billion yuan, a 61% increase, with earnings per ADS at 18.6 yuan, lower than the expected 20.2 yuan [1][5]. - The company is intensifying its focus on high-quality development strategies, investing in building a healthy platform ecosystem through product development, marketing operations, and supply chain management. This includes a series of fee reductions and support policies for merchants, such as a 10 billion yuan fee reduction plan [5]. - Despite the strong revenue growth, the company faces increased competition in the e-commerce sector, which may lead to a slowdown in revenue growth and a gradual decline in profit margins. However, initial positive feedback from merchants regarding the company's support measures indicates a foundation for long-term sustainable development [5]. Financial and Valuation Summary - The total market capitalization is approximately $144.557 billion, with a circulating market value of the same amount. The total number of ADRs is 1,389 million, and the total share capital is 5,555 million. The stock has a 12-month low/high of $164.69/$88.01 [4]. - The company’s valuation is considered attractive based on comparisons with leading Chinese internet companies and U.S. e-commerce peers, despite the outlook for business growth and expense ratios being below expectations. The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5x for 2024 and 8.6x for 2025 [5].