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大型藍籌啟動中期升浪,中國人壽02628展現突破續航潛力
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-17 18:29
Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance (02628.HK) has shown strong technical performance, breaking out of a previous sluggish phase and establishing a mid-term upward trend, with significant trading volume indicating increased investment in the financial insurance sector [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has surpassed key resistance levels of 16.00 to 16.14 HKD and is approaching a short-term resistance level of 17.10 HKD. A solid hold above this level could pave the way for challenges to previous highs of 19 HKD and even 20.50 HKD [3]. - The technical structure displays a typical W-bottom rebound, supported by ideal trading volume, indicating market consensus on the rebound and suggesting the potential for a new mid-term upward trend [3]. - Technical indicators such as the MACD show a bullish momentum with a golden cross and increasing histogram, while the RSI is above 70, indicating overbought conditions but without clear signs of weakness [3][6]. Market Signals - Currently, the market has set a short-term target price for China Life at 18.42 HKD, suggesting approximately 2.91% upside potential, with mid-term potential to challenge above 20 HKD [6]. - The market sentiment remains highly bullish, with 16 strong buy signals identified, reflecting a strong technical buying consensus [6]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the consolidation platform between 16.10 and 16.30 HKD. If the stock price maintains stability and breaks above 17.20 HKD with increased volume, it will confirm the breakout, allowing for incremental buying with targets set between 19 and 20.50 HKD [9].
香港交易所(0388.HK):市场热度仍处高位 IPO大幅回暖贡献业绩增量
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-17 18:29
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in May, with active trading and positive growth expectations for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's (HKEX) earnings [1][2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 16.1% and 15.7% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for HKEX was HKD 210.3 billion, down 23.4% month-on-month but up 50.4% year-on-year [1] - The monthly ADT for the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect was HKD 906.13 billion, down 6.9% month-on-month but up 22.4% year-on-year [1] - The monthly ADT for the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 147.42 billion, down 22.9% month-on-month but up 50.1% year-on-year [1] Derivatives and Commodity Markets - In the derivatives market, both futures and options trading volumes decreased month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 586,000 contracts, down 30.3% month-on-month and 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The ADV for options was 805,000 contracts, down 19.8% month-on-month and 23.7% year-on-year [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a decrease in trading volume, with a daily average of 707,000 contracts, down 19.7% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year [1] IPO Market - The Hong Kong IPO market experienced significant growth, with 10 new listings in May totaling HKD 55.8 billion, representing increases of 1830.4% month-on-month and 3150.6% year-on-year [1] Investment Income - Investment income rates for HKEX showed a decline month-on-month and year-on-year as of the end of May [1] - The 6-month HIBOR was 2.16%, down 1.86 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.66 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The 1-month HIBOR was 0.59%, down 3.37 percentage points month-on-month and down 3.89 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The overnight HIBOR was 0.03%, down 4.47 percentage points month-on-month and down 4.44 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The US overnight bank funding rate was 4.33%, unchanged month-on-month [1] Macroeconomic Environment - Domestic economic conditions showed signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.50%, up 0.50 percentage points month-on-month [1] - New orders and new export orders indices were at 49.8% and 47.5%, respectively, with increases of 0.60 percentage points and 2.80 percentage points month-on-month [1] - The manufacturing production index was at 50.7%, up 0.90 percentage points month-on-month [1] - Internationally, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with expectations for rate cuts being postponed [1][2] Investment Outlook - As of the end of May, the company's PE ratio was 35.45x, positioned at the 44th percentile historically since 2016, indicating potential value for investment [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 29.8 billion, HKD 31.0 billion, and HKD 32.5 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of HKD 17.9 billion, HKD 18.6 billion, and HKD 19.6 billion respectively [2] - Corresponding PE valuations are projected to be 29.2x, 28.0x, and 26.6x for the same period, suggesting a "buy" rating [2]
顺丰同城(9699.HK):最后一公里配送需求超预期 上修年度关联交易额上限
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-17 18:25
Core Viewpoint - The company plans to revise the annual cap for last-mile delivery services for the years ending December 31, 2025, and 2026, in response to the increasing demand for these services, with significant year-on-year growth expected [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Last-Mile Delivery Service Demand - The demand for last-mile delivery services has exceeded expectations, with historical transaction amounts reaching 6.369 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.3% from 4.777 billion in 2023 [1]. - The revised annual caps for related transactions are set at 12.845 billion for 2025 and 20.551 billion for 2026, representing year-on-year increases of 101.7% and 60.0%, respectively [1][2]. Company Capabilities - The company possesses a flexible transportation network and strong delivery capabilities, which enable it to better meet customer demands for last-mile delivery [1]. - Revenue growth in last-mile delivery services is driven by several factors, including the development of e-commerce return collection capabilities, continuous expansion of service networks and rider teams, and the provision of diverse delivery services [1]. Collaboration with SF Express - The company anticipates strong growth in SF Express's express delivery business and plans to deepen collaboration across various logistics service segments, particularly during peak periods [2]. - The company’s flexible transportation network is capable of providing minute-level service, supporting SF Express's needs for expedited delivery [2]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 23.6 billion, 33.75 billion, and 42.18 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 340 million, 620 million, and 870 million, respectively [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.37, 0.67, and 0.95 for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 38, 21, and 15 [3].
6月17日【港股Podcast】恆指、泡泡瑪特、周大福、阿里、金沙、中海油
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-17 18:23
1、恆指(HSI):看多方向的投資者認為指數震盪橫行仍會繼續上升。也有投資者認為盤整等待消息,上不去24000點走勢偏弱,牛證見好就收。走勢上, 牛熊證的投資者偏短炒為主,指數波幅比較窄,沒有明顯的方向。參考支持位23444點,阻力位在24368點。暫時維持窄幅波動,於過往走勢差不多。 2、泡泡瑪特 (09992.HK):今日股價下跌6%,是否上車的良機?目前比較走勢反復。從客觀數據看,技術信號總結為"買入"。雖然整體偏好但賣出與買入的 信號的數量都旗鼓相當。如果等低位入場的話,參考數據系統分析的支持位233元。同時留意保利加通道中線241元。窩輪市場上,投資者買入認購證和認沽 證都有,保守投資者則考慮回到250元再撈底。 | 信號總結 | 賣出信號 中立信號 買入信號 | | --- | --- | | 1 員人 | 8 6 10 | 3、周大福 (01929.HK):投資者問什麼價位入場比較合適?從走勢看,5月初至今,昨日(16日)升穿保利加通道的頂部,今日出現調整,但走勢整體維持 向上趨勢。技術信號總結為"買入"。支持位可關注保利加通道中線11.79元。與系統數據分析的支持位11.7元比較近。 | 信號 ...
零跑汽车(9863.HK):全域自研主打高性价比 合资拓展全球市场
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-17 18:14
新架构发布,系统集成度进提升:公司发布Leap3.5 架构,进一步提升智驾、智能、电驱、电池、热管 理和底盘智能化,拥有更高集成度,全新四叶草中央域控架构实现"四域合一",体现出公司在域控领域 的领先水平。 新品发布主打高性价比:公司在2025 年上半年发布B 平台纯电车型B10,售价10.98-13.98 万元,搭载了 高通 8650 智驾芯片和8295 智能座舱芯片,端到端大模型实现高速智能领航辅助、通勤智能领航辅助、 停车场记忆泊车等功能,产品极具性价比,同价格段具有明显的竞争优势。 海外市场进展顺利:4 月Stellantis 与零跑正式签署了合作协议,双方将在马来西亚开启本地组装 (CKD)计划,项目初期将投入约500 万欧元。2025 年是零跑汽车全球化元年,前四个月出口占比突 破10%。 机构:第一上海 研究员:陈晓霞 销量高速增长,公司处于快速增长期:公司25 年Q1 实现收入100.2 亿元(同比+187%),环比下降 25.6%,毛利率达到14.9%,主要受益于规模效应和C 系列高毛利车型占比提升。权益持有人应占亏损 为1.3 亿元人民币。现金状况稳健,拥有257.0 亿元人民币的现金及现 ...
海底捞22元工作餐背后:餐饮巨头的下沉生存战
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 17:40
当西安某海底捞门店挂出"22元自助午餐"的招牌时,路过的白领们纷纷驻足——这个价格还不到其火锅人均消费的四分之一。从动辄数百元的火锅盛宴到15 元盒饭,海底捞正在用供应链剪刀裁出一件"工装",试图套进中国餐饮市场日益凸显的消费分级身形。 时段突围成为首要战场。海底捞将火锅场景拆解为早餐茶叶蛋、午餐盒饭、夜宵冒菜等模块,用22元套餐填补午市空白后,翻台率提升至4.1次/天,较行业 平均水平高出30%。 价格带覆盖展现战略纵深。从97元正餐到1.5元茶叶蛋,海底捞构建起"金字塔"产品体系。这种既保品牌调性又抓流量入口的布局,使其在消费分级浪潮中 保持平衡。 火锅巨头为何盯上"打工人午餐"? 组织力革新打破行业桎梏。赋予区域门店自主定价权后,北京15元套餐与西安22元自助并行不悖。这种"标准化服务+个性化产品"的组合,正在重塑连锁餐 饮的扩张逻辑。 2024年财报透露关键信号:海底捞客单价已降至97.5元,午市闲置率却高达40%。这组数据折射出餐饮业的时段困境——当消费者将"火锅自由"降级为"周末 特供",巨头们不得不重新审视工作日的经营时钟。 海底捞的解法颇具巧思:将员工食堂升级为对外营业的"能量补给站"。沿用火 ...
泡泡玛特,听见茅台跳水的声音
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 16:40
由于"前途未卜",人们总是热衷于搜寻一些时代变迁的端倪,希望从一些细微之处预见季节的转换。 泡泡玛特风靡,飞天茅台跳水。这两个同时发生的现象,放在一起看似乎有些意味深长。 最近飞天茅台的市场价格跌破2000元了。在最近此起彼伏的禁酒令推波助澜之下,茅台股价,从今年春天的1600元奔向1200元的前低了。这噗通跳水的声 音里,夹杂着酒瓶子酒杯落地的清脆。 与此同时,泡泡玛特作为一款年轻人的潮流玩具,出现了抢购潮,成了"藏品",有了"投资属性"。这家"塑料制品"公司,股价一路上行,市值3500亿港元 了。 泡泡玛特,我略有研究,飞天茅台,我也蹭过几口。 在我看来二者有不少"相似之处":原材料都很低廉;品牌溢价都很高;都不算"高科技";都具有"成瘾性";都具有"收藏价值";都是"精神消费";都有社 交属性;都搞"饥饿营销"…… 当然二者的不同之处也有很多。 从功能上说,一个免费的塑料袋就能装一切,但就有人愿意花巨资买个奢侈品包来装"空气"。 从功能上说,60块钱一瓶的汾酒跟2000元的茅台一样,都能让人"醉卧沙场"还不头疼。但廉价不能彰显身份、地位、权势,于是必须有功能相似但价格昂 贵的东西。 身份地位权势总是引发 ...
市场消息:内塔尼亚胡今晚与多位 部长和安全部门负责人举行安全磋商。
news flash· 2025-06-17 16:01
市场消息:内塔尼亚胡今晚与多位部长和安全部门负责人举行安全磋商。 ...
珠峰黄金(01815.HK)及中国白银集团(00815.HK)拟共同收购江西艺鼎贸易55%股权
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-17 14:59
通过订立该等股权转让协议,珠峰黄金将收购目标公司35%的股权,而中国白银将收购目标公司20%的 股权,而目标公司透过西藏日喀间接持有附带西藏日喀则市矿产资源勘探权的勘探许可证。 于收购事项完成后,目标公司江西艺鼎贸易将由买方一及买方二分别拥有35%及20%的股权。目标公司 将作为珠峰黄金的联营公司入账,其财务业绩将不会合并入账珠峰黄金的财务报表。目标公司会成为中 国白银间接非全资附属公司,其财务业绩将于中国白银账目中综合入账。 中国白银集团为中国领先的全产业白银及贵金属综合企业,主要在中国从事银锭、钯金及其他有色金属 的制造及销售业务。珠峰黄金集团主要从事黄金、白银及其他珠宝产品的设计及销售业务。鉴于零售业 的销售增长疲软,中国白银集团及珠峰黄金集团近年来不时探索及考虑珠宝行业内外合适商机,以分散 其商业风险。 格隆汇6月17日丨珠峰黄金(01815.HK)及中国白银集团(00815.HK)公告,中国白银董事会和珠峰黄金董 事会欣然联合宣布,于2025年6月17日,买方一(为珠峰黄金的全资附属公司及中国白银的非全资附属公 司)及买方二(为中国白银的全资附属公司)各自与卖方订立了该等股权转让协议。据此,卖方江西 ...
泡泡玛特AB面:爆款狂欢与资本暗流
Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is accelerating its IP commercialization strategy, evidenced by the recent high auction prices for its products and the launch of its jewelry brand POPOP, indicating a diversification effort in its business model [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Product Popularity - The limited edition LABUBU toy achieved a record auction price of 1.08 million yuan, sparking significant market interest and leading to rapid sellouts in stores [2][4]. - The launch of new products and promotional events has created a buzz on social media, with reports of long queues and even altercations among buyers [4][5]. - The demand for LABUBU has led to exorbitant prices in the secondary market, with some items selling for over 31,999 yuan, a 52-fold increase from the original price [5]. Group 2: Capital Market Reactions - Despite the product popularity, major shareholders, including founder Wang Ning, have been reducing their stakes, raising concerns about the company's long-term innovation capabilities [3][11]. - Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.04%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of approximately 22.3 billion HKD (around 20.4 billion RMB) [3]. Group 3: Diversification and New Initiatives - The opening of the POPOP jewelry brand aims to tap into the existing fan base of Pop Mart's IPs, with initial stores experiencing high demand and sellouts [2][8]. - The jewelry line features popular IPs like Molly and LABUBU, indicating a strategy to deepen engagement with existing customers rather than attracting new ones [8]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The toy and collectible market is experiencing explosive growth, with significant increases in transaction volumes reported during promotional events [7]. - Analysts suggest that while the current hype around LABUBU is substantial, the sustainability of this interest remains uncertain, with expectations that the market will eventually stabilize [7][12].