上 市 公 司 交通运输 2026 年 03 月 06 日 京东物流 (02618) ——25 年业绩符合预期，看好 26 年收入利润高增 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | ⚫ 风险提示：行业需求下降风险、大客户流失、竞争加剧风险、地缘政治风险。 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 182,838 | 217,147 | 261,353 | 301,939 | 343,141 | | 同比增长率（%） | 9.73 | 18.77 | 20.36 | 15.53 | 13.65 | | 归属普通股东净利润-调 | 7,027 | 7,467 | 9,567 | 11,091 | 12,755 | | 整后 | | | | | | | 同比增长率（%） | 217.98 | 6.27 | 28.12 | 15.93 | 15.00 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.13 | 1.19 ...

来自一体化供应链客户收入由2024年度的人民币874亿元增加33.0%至2025年度的人民币1162亿元。来 自一体化供应链客户收入增加主要归因于(i)来自京东集团的收入增加，主要受即时配送服务规模扩展所 带动，其使用公司自2025年二季度起开始招募及管理的全职骑手运力及2025年四季度收购本地即时配送 服务业务所获得的新增配送能力;(ii)受外部一体化供应链客户的收入增加带动，其来源于外部一体化供 应链客户数量的同比增加。于所示期间带来收入贡献的外部一体化供应链客户数量由2024年度的80,703 名增加至2025年度的91,161名。该等外部一体化供应链客户数量增长主要源自客户对公司服务的需求上 升以及公司持续提升的一体化供应链服务能力。公司的单客户平均收入于截至2025年12月31日止年度为 人民币393,907元，而2024年度为人民币400,156元。 来自其他客户的收入由2024年度的人民币955亿元增加5.7%至2025年度的人民币1009亿元，主要受快递 快运业务量增加所带动。 京东物流(02618)发布截至2025年12月31日止年度业绩，收入2171.47亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长 1 ...

北京商报讯（记者 何倩）3月5日，京东物流发布2025年年度业绩报告。数据显示，京东物流全年总收 入达2171亿元，同比增长18.8%，经调整后净利润达77.1亿元。其中，四季度一体化供应链收入同比增 长44.5%。 ...

依托不断完善的供应链能力，公司持续拓展一体化供应链的业务边界与服务深度。通过全渠道"一盘 货"的供应链解决方案，以及"送装一体"、"逆向复原"等差异化的高标准服务，公司与快速消费品、家 电家具、汽车等多个行业的头部客户深化合作。在切实助力客户降本增效、优化体验的同时，公司的行 业洞察与服务能力不断增强，驱动一体化供应链业务实现稳健增长。 在海外市场，公司成功实现"自营海外仓面积翻番"目标，仓储网络与履约能力持续增强。截至2025年12 月31日，公司拥有近200个保税仓库、直邮仓库和海外仓库，总管理面积近200万平方米。结合在国内积 累的成熟供应链经验，公司在海外市场为众多中国品牌及海外本土客户提供全链路物流解决方案与优质 履约服务，获得客户广泛信赖。2025年，公司在美洲、欧洲、中东和亚太地区均取得积极进展，驱动海 外业务实现高速增长。 智通财经APP讯，京东物流(02618)发布截至2025年12月31日止年度业绩，收入2171.47亿元(人民币，下 同)，同比增长18.8%;其中，来自外部客户的收入为1368亿元，同比增长7.1%。归属于公司所有者的利 润66.47亿元，同比增长7.2%。 期内总收入增 ...

3月5日，京东物流(02618)发布2025年年度业绩报告，全年总收入达2171亿元，同比增长18.8%，经调整 后净利润达77.1亿元，业绩增长亮眼。其中第四季度一体化供应链收入同比增长44.5%，再次领跑行 业，海外业务继续实现高速增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation as major players like JD Logistics and SF Express shift from price wars to ecosystem collaboration, marking a new competitive landscape in the sector [2][14]. Group 1: JD Logistics and Debon - JD Logistics announced a cash acquisition of Debon for 3.797 billion yuan, at a 35% premium to the stock price before suspension, completing a strategic layout in the express delivery sector [2][5]. - The acquisition follows JD's initial investment in Debon in 2022, culminating in a total investment exceeding 12 billion yuan over four years [5]. - Debon holds a leading market share in large parcel and less-than-truckload logistics, particularly in home appliances and furniture, which complements JD's existing logistics capabilities [5][6]. - The integration of Debon enhances JD's strengths in warehousing and last-mile delivery while addressing gaps in trunk transportation and large item handling [6]. Group 2: SF Express and Jitu - SF Express and Jitu have formed a strategic alliance through mutual shareholding, with a transaction value of 8.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, indicating a long-term commitment to collaboration [2][7]. - The partnership allows SF Express to leverage Jitu's strengths in e-commerce logistics and lower-tier markets, while Jitu benefits from SF's established high-end service network [9][10]. - This collaboration is expected to enhance both companies' international logistics capabilities, with SF focusing on cross-border supply chain strengths and Jitu providing essential last-mile resources in Southeast Asia [10][12]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Competitive Dynamics - The logistics market in China is transitioning towards an oligopolistic structure, with the top eight companies holding 85% market share, and the top three (SF, JD Logistics, Jitu) accounting for over 50% [14][15]. - Companies are shifting their strategic focus from scale expansion to quality improvement and ecosystem development, emphasizing service differentiation, digital transformation, and green logistics [16][17]. - The competition is evolving beyond traditional logistics services to encompass the entire supply chain, with JD Logistics offering integrated solutions and SF Express building a comprehensive ecosystem [16][17]. - The effectiveness of different operational models, such as JD's closed ecosystem versus SF's open platform, remains to be seen, as both face unique challenges and opportunities in the evolving market [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The company's fundamental logic remains unchanged, with capability building driving growth in new business scenarios. The rapid growth of the express delivery business is expected to exceed revenue forecasts, but short-term pressures from labor costs, administrative expenses, and resource investments are constraining profit release. In the long term, integrating rider management under JD Logistics to handle "express + instant delivery" can maximize labor efficiency. The future operational capacity will leverage a pool of approximately 450,000 couriers and over 150,000 riders to enhance JD Logistics' urban delivery capabilities [1] Event Highlights - On December 26, JD Logistics successfully completed its first overseas drone test flight, marking the company's first use of drones for cargo transport abroad, which is a significant step in "express delivery going global" - On the same day, the company's first overseas intelligent warehouse officially commenced operations in the UK - Starting January 1, 2026, the consumer goods recycling subsidy officially launched, with JD Logistics completing the first order fulfillment of the 2026 "National Subsidy" on the same day. On January 5, the first order involving robot-assisted delivery was completed [1] Business Performance - Currently, international business accounts for less than 5% of the company's revenue, with expectations for international revenue to continue a high growth trend of 25% in 2026. The company is steadily advancing the deployment of automation equipment (such as unmanned vehicles and drones) and various robots, with capital expenditure expected to gradually increase year by year. However, the company will manage the balance between automation investment and the benefits of technological efficiency to drive long-term profit improvement [1] Risk Analysis - The expansion of integrated supply chain business may slow down, as the company's strategic focus is on integrated supply chain services. The recovery of the macro economy and market demand in China in 2025 will be crucial for the growth of this business segment, particularly for small and medium-sized clients [2] - Internal network integration for cost reduction and efficiency improvement may not meet expectations, as the merger with Debon Logistics in 2022 aimed to reduce capital expenditure and ongoing losses in express and large parcel delivery, but the integration process faces uncertainties due to the complexity of the national network [2] - Rising labor costs and supply-demand imbalances pose challenges, as the logistics industry is labor-intensive and faces recruitment pressures due to an aging population and competition from flexible employment sectors [3] - The pace of industrial upgrading and commercialization of technology may not meet expectations, as the national strategy during the 14th Five-Year Plan encourages high-end industrial development, which presents opportunities for JD Logistics but also involves risks during the transformation process [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on building a comprehensive semiconductor industry chain and aims to extend its global service capabilities through integrated service solutions for upstream and downstream industries [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company is developing a global one-stop service network by integrating service solutions for key clients such as BOE, Applied Materials, and Samsung [1] - It has established a full industry chain service covering chip design, manufacturing, and testing [1] Group 2: Service Offerings - The company provides integrated supply chain service support, including raw material supply and equipment maintenance [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for JD Logistics for 2025 and 2026, with a target price of HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 56.5% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 55.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with a non-IFRS net profit of RMB 2.02 billion and a non-IFRS net profit margin of 3.7%, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue in Q3 increased by 46% year-on-year to RMB 30.1 billion, driven by a 66% increase in revenue from JD Group to RMB 21.2 billion, primarily due to the contribution from JD's delivery services and retail business growth [3] Group 2: Business Expansion - The company announced the acquisition of Dada's local instant delivery business for approximately USD 270 million, which is expected to enhance the existing product matrix and optimize last-mile delivery capabilities [4] - The company's overseas business is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in overseas warehouse scale since 2025, and a recent collaboration with a new energy vehicle company to provide integrated logistics supply chain services in the Middle East [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported a 46% year-on-year increase in integrated supply chain revenue for Q3 2025, indicating a strong expansion into high-value markets [2] - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 55.08 billion yuan, a 24.1% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 2.02 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year [9] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business and enhancing instant retail capabilities, including a partnership with a well-known electric vehicle brand in the Middle East [5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from other clients amounted to 24.9 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, accounting for 45.3% of total revenue [3] - Revenue from JD Group reached 21.2 billion yuan, a 65.8% increase year-on-year, representing 38.5% of total revenue [3] - External customer revenue was 33.88 billion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, making up 61.5% of total revenue [3] Operational Highlights - As of September 30, 2025, the company operated over 1,600 warehouses and more than 2,000 cloud warehouses, with a total management area exceeding 34 million square meters [4] - The company successfully launched a dedicated air cargo route from Shenzhen to Singapore, enhancing its logistics network in the Asia-Pacific region [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, with projected adjusted net profits of 8.43 billion yuan, 9.11 billion yuan, and 10 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]