机构：中金公司 研究员：严佳卉/吕松涛/张帅帅 2Q25 业绩小幅高于我们预期 汇丰控股发布2Q25 业绩，经调税前利润92 亿美元，同比增长1%，超出市场预期，主要由于经调非息 收入增速较快且净利息收入韧性较强。报告口径税前利润同比下降29%至63 亿美元，主要由于交行再 融资带来股权稀释及减值损失合计21 亿美元，其中11 亿美元的再融资稀释符合预期，10 亿美元的减值 计提未有预期。 HIBOR 低位维持时间超预期，香港本土地产资产质量下行，美国关税政策压力超预期。 经调净利息收入同比下降2%、季度环比上升1%，结构性对冲工具的受益以及负债成本下行对冲了资产 收益下行的影响，也受益于汇率计算。经调2Q25 净息差1.96%，季度环比下降6bp，主要由于Hibor 下 行。账面贷款和存款增长较快主要由于汇率波动，若按固定汇率基准计算，则存贷款规模环比基本持 平，贷款增长来自于英国市场，存款增长来自于中国香港市场。 资产减值损失同比大幅增加，主要来自香港商业地产和低基数。1）2Q25公司针对新增香港商业地产违 约敞口增加减值准备，也针对商业地产供给过剩导致租金及价格下行而增加减值准备。2）2Q24 低基 数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has made significant progress in its innovative transformation, focusing on drug development in oncology, liver disease/metabolism, respiratory, and surgical/pain management, with multiple pipelines showing potential for overseas licensing [1][2][3] Group 1: Innovation and R&D Investment - The company has increased its R&D investment to 17.6% of revenue in 2024, up from 9.9% in 2019 [2] - By the end of 2024, the company has received approval for 17 innovative drugs, with innovative product revenue accounting for 42% of total revenue, compared to 11% in 2015 [2] - The company has averaged over 3 License in transactions per year from 2019 to 2024, enhancing the richness of its innovative drug pipeline [2] Group 2: Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The oncology pipeline includes key products such as Anlotinib, which has received approval for 9 indications and has 4 additional indications submitted for NDA [3] - The company is advancing several promising products, including TQB2102 (HER2 dual antibody ADC) and TQC3721 (PDE3/4 inhibitor), which have significant potential for overseas licensing [3] - The company’s biosimilar drugs have a combined market capacity of 240 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong growth potential [3][4] Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company expects revenue growth of 11.4%/10.5%/9.6% for 2025E/26E/27E, with adjusted net profit growth of 12.2%/11.5%/10.5% [4] - The target price is set at 9.40 HKD based on a 10-year DCF model, corresponding to a 37x adjusted PE for 2026 [4]

机构：天风证券 费用率小幅提升，资产减值冲回回补利润 销售、管理、财务费用率分别同比为5.57%、11.95% 、9.22%，同比分别+0.18pct、+3.26pct、 考虑到上半年受到市场租金波动导致毛利率承压等因素，我们下调公司业绩预期，预计2025-2027 年归 母净利润为5.3、6.3、7.5 亿（yoy-40%、+17%、+20%）对应PE 为6.4、5.5、4.6 倍，（前值为25-27 年 预测10.2、11.5、13 亿），调整为"增持"评级。 分业务来看，经营租赁、工程技术、资产管理及其他服务业务分别实现收入22.7、11.4、9.5 亿，同比 +19.5%、-41.5%、-8.2%，工程技术服务部分材料进行了收缩策略，资产管理业务受到运营资产的租金 波动影响，同时主动减少接收同业设备资产管理托管的委托导致收入下降。25H1 经营租赁、工程技 术、资产管理及其他服务业务利率分别为27.4%、15.1%、15.7%，同比-9.7pct、-11.9pct、-16.4pct，公 司总毛利率为21.6%，同比-10.4pct。 研究员：鲍荣富/朱晔/王涛/王雯/王悦宜 经营租赁服务毛利率下滑主要 ...

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：訾猛/颜慧菁/张嘉颖 原奶价格延续回落，25H2 有望进入供需平衡通道，公司为牧业行业龙头，成本领先聚焦长远，有望受 益于周期反转，业绩弹性较强。 投资要点： 投资建议：首 次覆盖给予"增持"评级。我们预计公司 2025-27 年营收分别为133.50、145.99、163.47 亿 元，同比增长0.7%、9.4%、12.0%，归母净利润为-5.80、4.38、15.84 亿元；EPS 分别为-0.07、0.06、 0.20 元/股。公司为牧业行业龙头，受益于周期反转红利，综合PB、EV/EBITDA 估值方法，给予公司 目标价1.59 港元/股，对应2025 年1.09 倍P/B。 原奶价格延续回落，25H2 有望供需平衡。原奶价格持续低位，25 年6 月均价同比-7.7%至3.04 元/kg， 目前行业亏损面超90%，我们认为饲料成本增长与活牛价格提升有望加速奶牛存栏去化。25H2 随着青 贮收储资金压力加剧、热应激下供给端减产与成母牛补栏减少，需求旺季行业有望进入供需平衡通道。 25 年生育补贴政策落地有望提振乳制品消费需求，我们认为受益于前期集中扩产影响消退、泌乳牛补 栏减 ...

机构：天风证券 研究员：吴立/孙潇雅 公司产业链布局，提升产业协同效应 盈利预测与估值 基于公司新能源领域科研能力及其在建构完善的自主产业链方面的持续投入与创新，未来公司业绩有望 继续取得增长。我们预计公司2025-2027营业总收入为88.66/97.24/106.72 亿元，分别同比 +12%/10%/10%；我们预计公司2025-2027 归母净利润为0.80/1.1/1.44 亿元，分别同比增长 58%/38%/31%。选取华域汽车、耐世特、捷众科技、拓普集团为可比公司，预计公司2025 去除联营公 司亏损后的归母净利润为1.4 亿元。考虑到港股的流动性折价，应给予其2025 年略低于平均估值的12 倍 PE，同时选取零跑汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车为五菱新能源可比公司，给予联营公司五菱新能源1.5 倍 PS，因此公司对应市值为23.1 亿元，目标价格为0.77 港元，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：供应链资产规模增长不及预期、监管政策相关风险、平台客户数量增长不及预期、自有资金 水平不及预期、外汇风险、估值体系差异风险或港股市场流动性不及预期。 五菱汽车集团控股有限公司是一家专注汽车产业链业务的中国香港上 ...

机构：天风证券 研究员：张樨樨/厉泽昭 中华煤气旗下大型城燃公司，领先布局智慧能源 从结构上看，管道天然气销售业务是公司最主要的收入来源，2024 年占总营收比例达到80%。 城燃行业销气量增速趋缓，毛差有望改善 五大城燃公司销气增速跟随行业放缓，行业集中度趋于集中。2024 年城燃行业毛差整体有所改善，除 昆仑能源因加气站移交影响下滑，华润燃气、中国燃气、港华智慧能源均有所增长，分别较2023 年提 升了0.02、0.037、0.02 元/方。伴随国际气价中枢下跌，主要城燃公司采购成本均呈现不同幅度下降。 公司从1994 年运营城燃业务至今已建立了庞大的客户资源及业务网络，基础稳健。2024 年集团的城市 燃气项目累计总数达191 个，2024 年燃气销售量达172.01 亿立方米，同比增长4.5%，其中零售气量136 亿方，同比增长3%。集团致力加强天然气供应的自主性，提升用气高峰季节的调峰能力并保持价格稳 定。 港华智慧能源致力为客户提供一站式的清洁能源方案，于内地营运城市管道燃气及建设燃气管网，并积 极拓展智慧能源系统业务，包括可再生能源发电、数码化能源管理服务及碳管理服务等。公司前身为港 华燃气，控 ...

Core Viewpoint - Melco Resorts & Entertainment reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with net revenue of $1.328 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase and an 8% quarter-over-quarter increase, recovering to 91% of Q2 2019 levels [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted property EBITDA was $378 million, up 25% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter, recovering to 84% of Q2 2019 levels, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimate of $347 million [1] - The company maintained stable operating cost control, leading to improved profit margins [1] Group 2: Management Insights - Management indicated that the strong trend observed in June 2025 continued into July 2025, with expectations for this trend to persist into Q3 2025, driven by record visitor numbers at Macau properties and strong performance in the premium mass segment [1] - The company plans to close the Junket Room and three Mocha Clubs by the end of 2025, with an impairment loss of approximately $56 million recognized in Q2 2025 [1] - Management is optimistic about the benefits from the closure of competitor satellite casinos and the company's own satellite properties [1] - Competitors are increasing reinvestment rates, but the company remains focused on enhancing its products to retain customers [1] - Enhanced information technology for smart gaming tables is expected to optimize customer rebate expenditures [1] - The "The House of Dancing Water" show is helping to attract visitors back to City of Dreams, positively impacting non-gaming revenue [1] - Despite the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on City of Dreams Cyprus, summer hotel bookings have significantly increased [1] - City of Dreams Sri Lanka is set to open on August 1, 2025, primarily targeting Indian customers, with expectations for a longer ramp-up period due to its status as the first resort of its kind in South Asia [1] - City of Dreams Manila's performance remained stable in July 2025 [1] - The company repurchased approximately $120 million worth of shares at about $5 per ADS in April and May 2025 [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to 7 times the 2025 estimated EV/adjusted EBITDA [2] - A neutral rating is maintained with a target price of $8.50, reflecting an 8 times 2025 estimated EV/adjusted EBITDA, indicating a 1% downside from the current stock price [2] - For Melco International Development, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, with an upgraded target price of 14% to HKD 5.80, reflecting a 20% discount to net asset value and a 7% upside from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - Baidu Group is expected to experience a decline in total revenue for Q2 2025, with a projected decrease of 4.2% year-on-year to 32.52 billion yuan, primarily due to pressures on its high-margin advertising business [1] Group 1: Online Marketing Business - Baidu's core revenue is projected to decline by 3.6% year-on-year to 25.72 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with online marketing service revenue expected to drop by 15.7% due to the transitional impact of AI search transformation [2] - The new Baidu search interface supports natural language input and multi-modal queries, transitioning from traditional link displays to structured answers, which may enhance user engagement and conversion efficiency in the medium term [2] - Baidu has launched an ad-free intelligent search app "TizzyAI," focusing on AI-driven content aggregation and logical reasoning, showing strong performance in search purity and content structuring [2] Group 2: Non-Online Marketing Business - Non-online marketing revenue is expected to grow by 27% year-on-year to 9.54 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with significant contributions from cloud services [3] - The "萝卜快跑" service continues to grow, with 1.4 million orders in Q1 2025, a 75% increase year-on-year, and over 11 million rides provided by May [4] - Baidu's Wenxin large model technology is evolving, enhancing multi-modal and reasoning capabilities, with the release of Wenxin 4.5 Turbo and X1 Turbo, which significantly reduce reasoning costs [4] - The new digital human technology "NOVA" integrates AI capabilities for improved interaction and naturalness, supporting dual-person interactions and replicating real broadcaster styles [4] - Traditional content products are increasingly AI-driven, with the launch of the "沧舟OS" system enhancing user experience in document and video generation [4] Group 3: Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Due to ongoing pressures in advertising demand recovery and intense industry competition, Baidu's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 18 billion, 19.8 billion, and 22.3 billion yuan respectively, reflecting declines of 28.4%, 27.4%, and 26.3% from previous estimates [5] - The valuation multiples for Baidu's advertising, smart cloud, and other businesses have been adjusted to 10.0x PE and 2.5x PS, with a target price set at 109.4 HKD [5] - Despite challenges, the demand for AI large models remains strong, and Baidu's cloud business is expected to maintain rapid growth, with a focus on the monetization progress of AI search [5]

亚太西部：中国区延续去库，吨价同比转正。25Q2 中国区收入同比-6.4%。其中受政策波及消费场景有 所受损，叠加公司延续去库思路，销量内生同比-7.4%；吨价同比转正，同增 1.1%，判断系前期提价叠 加结构优化驱动。公司加大Core+、Core++产品费投，叠加规模效应弱化，正常化EBITDA 内生同 比-4.0%。印度高端及超高端产品持续放量高增，销售势能持续加强。整体看，印度市场表现对冲中国 需求疲软，25Q2 亚太西部收入同比-2.7%，正常化EBITDA 低基数下内生同增1.4%，EBITDA 利润率同 增1.1pcts 至30.8%。 亚太东部：发货前置销量下滑，提价拉升吨价。25Q2 亚太东部收入同比-8.4%，其中销量高基数下内生 同比-10.40%，主要系韩国区Q2 提价预期下，渠道Q1囤货高增致Q2 高单下滑；吨价同增2.2%，判断系 韩国区4 月核心产品提价2.9%， Cass、HANMAC 等产品推新所致。盈利方面，受去年高基数、商业投 资增加及运营持续去杠杆化等因素影响，25Q2 亚太东部正常化EBITDA 内生同比-26.5%，EBITDA 利 润率下降约6.5pcts 至25. ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：贾梦迪 MGM China reported 2Q25 net revenue of HK$8.7bn (+9% YoY, +8% QoQ) and adjusted Ebitda of HK$2.5bn (+3% YoY, +6% QoQ), setting a new single-quarter record, which was 72% higher than that in 2019. The results exceeded expectations, mainly due to the better-than-expected increase in market share. We raise 2025E EPS forecast from HK$1.19 to HK$1.25, 2026E forecast from HK$1.28 to HK$1.38, and introduce 2027E forecast of HK$1.43. We raise target price from HK$15.5 to HK$19, with 22% upside pot ...