智谱 领跑中国大模型，开拓进取AGI 2026.2 中金研究部 中金公司研究部 赵丽萍 分析师 SAC Reg. No.: S0080516060004; SFC CE Ref: BEH709 王之昊 分析师 SAC Reg. No.: S0080522050001; SFC CE Ref: BSS168 袁佳妮 分析师 SAC Reg. No.: S0080523050003; SFC CE Ref: BTM577 投资要点 2 ✓ 源自清华的国产大模型领军，扎实的技术底蕴和模型能力是基石。公司成立于2019年，专注GLM系 列基座模型深耕，打磨Coding、推理、Agentic等模型核心能力。最新一代基座模型GLM-5在HLE、 SWE等多个基准评分中达到SOTA水准，并获得海内外用户广泛好评。 ✓ 模型商业价值兑现，赋能千行百业。公司依托MaaS平台输出模型能力，我们预计2023-2027年收入 CAGR达130%+。API收入将成为主要增长引擎。我们估计公司至2026年初API相关ARR已接近6亿元， 较去年同期已有数十倍的增长。同时，公司覆盖互联网、软件、芯片等千行百业，聚焦释放模型价值 赋能客户提 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of $600 for Microsoft, indicating a potential upside of over 30% based on a 28x P/E ratio [2][9] - For Venture Global (VG), the target price is set at $15, with the current stock price below $10, suggesting significant upside potential [2][14] Core Insights - Microsoft is focusing on its AI strategy, prioritizing Copilot and internal R&D over Azure revenue growth, which is expected to yield stronger long-term economic benefits [1][4] - VG's modular construction method for LNG facilities significantly enhances construction speed, with the CP2 project expected to show clear progress this summer [2][11] - The global LNG market is projected to see a substantial increase in supply over the next few years, making VG's low-cost operating model crucial for maintaining competitive advantage [2][13] Summary by Sections Microsoft - Microsoft's AI strategy encompasses infrastructure, platform, and application layers, leveraging self-developed chips and partnerships with companies like Anthropic to create diverse growth opportunities [1][5] - The Copilot tool is expected to have better unit economics than Azure, with a focus on enhancing user engagement and monetization potential [1][6] - The Fairwater project is anticipated to alleviate GPU supply constraints, allowing for better resource allocation between Copilot and Azure [1][8] Venture Global - VG operates LNG export facilities and is positioned within the energy ecosystem, with a focus on efficient construction methods to enhance project timelines [10][12] - The company has made significant progress in its modular LNG construction approach, with the CP2 project advancing faster than expected [11][12] - VG's financing strategy is clear, with substantial funding already secured for ongoing projects, and plans to raise additional capital to support future expansions [12][14]

Investment Rating - Pop Mart is rated as a Top Buy in China's consumer sector, with a target price of HK$415.00, representing an expected return of 92.0% from the current price of HK$216.20 [8][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Pop Mart's user base is growing globally, with 76% of survey participants making their first purchase within one year, and 45% within three months [2][12]. - A significant 87% of respondents expressed a likelihood to purchase Pop Mart products in the next three months, driven by new product series, limited editions, and seasonal releases [3][30]. - Brand perception is strong, with 54% of respondents very satisfied and 39% somewhat satisfied, indicating a positive emotional connection with the brand [4][46]. Summary by Sections Consumer Behavior - 76% of respondents had their first Pop Mart purchase within one year, with 45% within three months [2][12]. - 34% shop for Pop Mart products every month, and 29% every three months, indicating high purchase frequency [12][14]. - 90% of respondents own at least two Pop Mart items, with the US having the highest per capita ownership [18][25]. Purchase Drivers - 87% of respondents are likely to buy Pop Mart products in the next three months, with new series and limited editions being key drivers [3][30]. - 93% plan to buy Pop Mart products in the future, with 48% maintaining current purchase frequency and 26% planning to buy more often [36][39]. - Wider product range, better quality, and lower prices are cited as factors that could increase purchase frequency [40]. Brand Perception - 54% of respondents are very satisfied with Pop Mart, with the highest satisfaction in the US at 70% [46][48]. - Gift-giving and collection/hobby are the top reasons for purchasing, with emotional satisfaction also playing a significant role [48][50]. - Character design, rarity/exclusivity, and emotional connection are highly valued attributes of Pop Mart products [51]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2026 is Rmb 18,357 million, with a diluted EPS of Rmb 13.763, reflecting a growth of 35.5% [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross margin of around 72% in 2026 [10]. Market Dynamics - The survey indicates that Pop Mart's user base continues to grow despite concerns about secondary market prices, with only 9% of respondents purchasing from secondhand platforms [2][27]. - The brand's strong presence in physical stores, especially in China, contrasts with higher online purchase ratios in the US and UK [27][29].

Investment Ratings - The report assigns Buy ratings to Tokyo Electron, Ebara, Disco, and Ulvac, while Kokusai Electric and Lasertec are rated Neutral, and Screen Holdings and Tokyo Seimitsu are rated Sell [2][4][21]. Core Insights - Strong demand for semiconductor capital equipment is driven by AI applications, particularly in memory and advanced logic sectors, leading to a positive outlook for 2026 [1]. - Earnings estimates for semiconductor capital equipment (SPE) companies have been revised upward due to increased forecasts for AI server units and TSMC's capital expenditures [1]. - The report highlights a 7% average increase in 12-month target prices for the covered companies [1]. Company Summaries Tokyo Electron - Rated Buy, expected to benefit from increased investment in memory, especially DRAM [2]. - Target price raised to ¥43,000 from ¥38,000, representing a 15% upside from the current price [21]. Ebara - Rated Buy, poised to gain from the rise in CMP layers in advanced logic and TSMC's capital expansion [2]. - Target price increased to ¥5,200 from ¥5,000, indicating a 28% upside [21]. Disco - Rated Buy, expected to benefit significantly from generative AI semiconductor packaging, particularly with silicon bridge technology [9]. - Target price raised to ¥62,000 from ¥61,000, reflecting a 14% upside [21]. Ulvac - Rated Buy, seeing strong orders from China and Taiwan foundries alongside increased memory investment [2]. - Target price increased to ¥8,400 from ¥7,700, indicating a 12% upside [21]. Kokusai Electric - Rated Neutral, with expectations of a V-shaped earnings recovery due to high exposure to memory, but limited benefits from TSMC's investment in advanced technologies [3]. - Target price raised to ¥5,000 from ¥4,400, reflecting a 14% downside [21]. Lasertec - Rated Neutral, with limited near-term order benefits from the adoption of new products [3]. - Target price increased to ¥27,000 from ¥24,000, indicating an 18% downside [21]. Screen Holdings - Rated Sell, with expectations of limited profit margin improvements due to low exposure to memory and declining sales to emerging customers [4]. - Target price raised to ¥13,300 from ¥12,200, reflecting a 17% downside [21]. Tokyo Seimitsu - Rated Sell, with profit margins expected to remain capped due to high material costs [11]. - Target price increased to ¥8,700 from ¥8,500, indicating a 26% downside [21].

6 January 2026 | 1:09AM HKT Equity Research GDS Holdings (GDS): DayOne announced Series C equity financing at US$7.4bn pre-money valuation, in line with GSe; Buy What happened GDS Holdings (GDS/9698.HK) announced on Jan.5 that DayOne has entered into agreements for US$2.1bn Series C equity financing. As per the announcement, the Series C financing includes investors from the US, Europe and APAC, and was led by Coatue Management and supported by additional leading institutions, including the Indonesia Invest ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to Huahong Semiconductor with a target price of HK$80.00 [4][5]. Core Insights - Huahong Semiconductor has initiated price increases for its 12-inch foundry services since Q2 2025, driven by full capacity utilization, with plans for further significant price hikes in 2026 [1]. - The company aims to reduce production cash costs by 5-10% by 2026, following cost-cutting measures implemented under the new president [1]. - The gross margin for the 12-inch foundry business turned positive in Q1 2025 and improved to 10% in Q3, with a target to reach 15% despite high depreciation costs [1]. - The company is optimizing its revenue structure by focusing on microcontroller units (MCUs) and smart card chips, benefiting from the growing demand for data center power chips [2]. - Huahong's first 12-inch fab has a current monthly capacity of 100,000 wafers, with plans for additional fabs to enhance production capabilities [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to decline from US$2,475 million in 2022 to US$2,004 million in 2024, before rebounding to US$3,033 million in 2026 [7]. - The net profit is expected to increase from US$75 million in 2025 to US$147 million in 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7]. - The estimated gross margin for 2026 is forecasted at 13.6%, slightly above the 12.0% expected for 2025 [1]. Market Context - Huahong Semiconductor is the second-largest foundry in mainland China, primarily serving the domestic market, which is expected to contribute 82% of its revenue in 2024 [10]. - The company is also leveraging the trend of localization by serving European IDM clients like STMicroelectronics and Infineon [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates Pop Mart shares as a Buy, indicating a strong investment opportunity in the pop toy sector [12][4]. Core Insights - Pop Mart is recognized as a leading player in the pop toy industry in China, with a strong capability in IP incubation and operation, which positions it well for growth in the consumer market [12][11]. - The company is expected to see improved investor confidence with upcoming product launches and the popularity of its non-LABUBU IPs in international markets [1]. - The report highlights the company's proactive approach to managing growth sustainability and addressing single IP risks through a diversified IP ecosystem [3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the projected net profit is RMB 13,551 million, with a diluted EPS of RMB 10.160, reflecting a significant growth of 333% compared to the previous year [3][7]. - The expected total return on shares is 93.9%, with a target price set at HK$415.00, representing a potential share price return of 91.8% from the current price of HK$216.40 [4][7]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to enhance the LABUBU IP with new product launches and designs, aiming for a strong market presence in 2026 [2]. - Pop Mart is expanding its international footprint, with plans to operate over 60 stores in the US by the end of 2025 and additional stores in Canada, Mexico, and the Middle East [8]. - The company is focusing on localized operations in overseas markets, including collaborations with local artists and IP designs [8]. Supply Chain Management - Pop Mart is optimizing its production strategy by initially producing 70% of projected sales volume and adjusting stock based on market demand, which is expected to improve sales projection accuracy [9]. - The company has expanded its overseas supply chain, with a portion of production now in Vietnam, and plans to establish more local warehouses for international markets [9].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Sany Heavy Industry with a target price of Rmb28.00, indicating an expected share price return of 35.5% and an expected total return of 37.9% [7]. Core Insights - Sany Heavy Industry is shifting its focus from aggressive pricing strategies to "quality growth," aiming for over 10% year-on-year revenue growth in China, driven by electrification and demand from non-property sectors [1][3]. - The company targets approximately 15% year-on-year revenue growth overseas, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, while utilizing its Indonesian facility to navigate geopolitical and tariff challenges in the US market [4]. - Mining equipment is identified as a key product area, with significant aftermarket opportunities, as it represents about 70% of lifecycle spending [5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The construction demand in China remains lukewarm, primarily due to weaker demand from property and infrastructure sectors. However, Sany expects to achieve over 10% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025-26 through electrification and increased crane demand from wind and petrochemical sectors [3]. Overseas Strategy - Sany aims for around 15% year-on-year revenue growth in international markets, with a positive outlook for demand in Africa and ASEAN. The company plans to leverage its Indonesian facility to ship excavators to the US, circumventing geopolitical and tariff issues [4]. Focus on Mining Equipment - The initial investment in mining equipment is only about 30% of total lifecycle spending, with aftermarket services accounting for approximately 70%. Sany's revenue from mining equipment exceeding 100 tons is projected to reach Rmb2 billion in 2025, with targets of Rmb3 billion in 2026 and Rmb6 billion by 2028 [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals with a target price of Rmb123.000, indicating an expected share price return of 95.5% and an expected total return of 95.9% [4]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals is positioned as a leading global biopharma, ranking No.2 in the size of its originated pipeline and No.3 in pipeline growth, benefiting from China's status as a significant source of global innovation [4][6]. - The report highlights that approximately 30% of global innovative drug trials originate from China, and about one-third of global innovative pipelines are from China-headquartered companies, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [2][3]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical market shows significant potential for growth in innovative drugs, which currently account for only about 14% of total drug sales in hospitals, compared to much higher percentages in developed markets [3]. Summary by Sections Globalization and Innovation - Jiangsu Hengrui has made substantial progress in globalization, with over 20 global trials ongoing and a diversified portfolio across key therapeutic areas [6]. - The company leverages global partnerships and in-house capabilities to maximize innovation impact, with a strong record in out-licensing and strategic partnerships since 2018 [6]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the demand for affordable innovation from China is expected to thrive due to increasing pricing pressures and the loss of exclusivity for leading multinational corporations [2]. - China's commitment to supporting innovative drugs is underscored by strong government backing for commercial health insurance, which is anticipated to improve coverage for innovative drugs in the future [3]. Financial Valuation - A discounted cash flow (DCF) approach is used to assess the fair value of Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, with a terminal growth rate of 4% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.3% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haidilao International Holding Ltd is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HK$18.50, indicating an expected share price return of 31.5% and an expected total return of 33.3% [4][7]. Core Insights - Haidilao experienced low single-digit year-over-year growth in table-turn in October, showing significant month-over-month improvement compared to a largely flat performance in the third quarter [1][2]. - Management anticipates less pressure on table-turn in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to seasonally cold weather and a low comparison base from the previous year, along with positive momentum expected in the first quarter of 2026 due to a longer Chinese New Year holiday period [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved sequentially in the third quarter of 2025, reaching 60.2%, aided by menu optimization efforts and lower labor costs [3]. - Management plans to terminate several loss-making pilot programs in the first quarter of 2026, which is expected to yield operational expense savings for the full year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Table-turn growth in October was driven by holiday consumption, effective consumer activation campaigns, and remodeled stores catering to new scenarios such as nightlife and family gatherings [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) for dine-in increased slightly in the third quarter of 2025, attributed to a higher mix of premium items [2]. Store Operations - Haidilao opened 59 new stores and closed approximately 60 stores while transferring over 50 stores to franchisees in the first ten months of 2025 [2]. - Delivery sales grew approximately 100% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, with projected delivery sales reaching around RMB 2 billion for the full year [2]. Margin Analysis - The GPM improved sequentially in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the first half of 2025, supported by menu optimization and reduced labor costs [3]. - Despite the improvement, 16 new piloting brands remain loss-making on an aggregate basis, prompting management to consider program terminations [3][4]. Valuation - The target price of HK$18.50 is based on a 12x 2025E EV/adjusted EBITDA, aligning with the trading average of global restaurant peers [7].