Investment Ratings - The report assigns Buy ratings to Tokyo Electron, Ebara, Disco, and Ulvac, while Kokusai Electric and Lasertec are rated Neutral, and Screen Holdings and Tokyo Seimitsu are rated Sell [2][4][21]. Core Insights - Strong demand for semiconductor capital equipment is driven by AI applications, particularly in memory and advanced logic sectors, leading to a positive outlook for 2026 [1]. - Earnings estimates for semiconductor capital equipment (SPE) companies have been revised upward due to increased forecasts for AI server units and TSMC's capital expenditures [1]. - The report highlights a 7% average increase in 12-month target prices for the covered companies [1]. Company Summaries Tokyo Electron - Rated Buy, expected to benefit from increased investment in memory, especially DRAM [2]. - Target price raised to ¥43,000 from ¥38,000, representing a 15% upside from the current price [21]. Ebara - Rated Buy, poised to gain from the rise in CMP layers in advanced logic and TSMC's capital expansion [2]. - Target price increased to ¥5,200 from ¥5,000, indicating a 28% upside [21]. Disco - Rated Buy, expected to benefit significantly from generative AI semiconductor packaging, particularly with silicon bridge technology [9]. - Target price raised to ¥62,000 from ¥61,000, reflecting a 14% upside [21]. Ulvac - Rated Buy, seeing strong orders from China and Taiwan foundries alongside increased memory investment [2]. - Target price increased to ¥8,400 from ¥7,700, indicating a 12% upside [21]. Kokusai Electric - Rated Neutral, with expectations of a V-shaped earnings recovery due to high exposure to memory, but limited benefits from TSMC's investment in advanced technologies [3]. - Target price raised to ¥5,000 from ¥4,400, reflecting a 14% downside [21]. Lasertec - Rated Neutral, with limited near-term order benefits from the adoption of new products [3]. - Target price increased to ¥27,000 from ¥24,000, indicating an 18% downside [21]. Screen Holdings - Rated Sell, with expectations of limited profit margin improvements due to low exposure to memory and declining sales to emerging customers [4]. - Target price raised to ¥13,300 from ¥12,200, reflecting a 17% downside [21]. Tokyo Seimitsu - Rated Sell, with profit margins expected to remain capped due to high material costs [11]. - Target price increased to ¥8,700 from ¥8,500, indicating a 26% downside [21].

6 January 2026 | 1:09AM HKT Equity Research GDS Holdings (GDS): DayOne announced Series C equity financing at US$7.4bn pre-money valuation, in line with GSe; Buy What happened GDS Holdings (GDS/9698.HK) announced on Jan.5 that DayOne has entered into agreements for US$2.1bn Series C equity financing. As per the announcement, the Series C financing includes investors from the US, Europe and APAC, and was led by Coatue Management and supported by additional leading institutions, including the Indonesia Invest ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to Huahong Semiconductor with a target price of HK$80.00 [4][5]. Core Insights - Huahong Semiconductor has initiated price increases for its 12-inch foundry services since Q2 2025, driven by full capacity utilization, with plans for further significant price hikes in 2026 [1]. - The company aims to reduce production cash costs by 5-10% by 2026, following cost-cutting measures implemented under the new president [1]. - The gross margin for the 12-inch foundry business turned positive in Q1 2025 and improved to 10% in Q3, with a target to reach 15% despite high depreciation costs [1]. - The company is optimizing its revenue structure by focusing on microcontroller units (MCUs) and smart card chips, benefiting from the growing demand for data center power chips [2]. - Huahong's first 12-inch fab has a current monthly capacity of 100,000 wafers, with plans for additional fabs to enhance production capabilities [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to decline from US$2,475 million in 2022 to US$2,004 million in 2024, before rebounding to US$3,033 million in 2026 [7]. - The net profit is expected to increase from US$75 million in 2025 to US$147 million in 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7]. - The estimated gross margin for 2026 is forecasted at 13.6%, slightly above the 12.0% expected for 2025 [1]. Market Context - Huahong Semiconductor is the second-largest foundry in mainland China, primarily serving the domestic market, which is expected to contribute 82% of its revenue in 2024 [10]. - The company is also leveraging the trend of localization by serving European IDM clients like STMicroelectronics and Infineon [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates Pop Mart shares as a Buy, indicating a strong investment opportunity in the pop toy sector [12][4]. Core Insights - Pop Mart is recognized as a leading player in the pop toy industry in China, with a strong capability in IP incubation and operation, which positions it well for growth in the consumer market [12][11]. - The company is expected to see improved investor confidence with upcoming product launches and the popularity of its non-LABUBU IPs in international markets [1]. - The report highlights the company's proactive approach to managing growth sustainability and addressing single IP risks through a diversified IP ecosystem [3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the projected net profit is RMB 13,551 million, with a diluted EPS of RMB 10.160, reflecting a significant growth of 333% compared to the previous year [3][7]. - The expected total return on shares is 93.9%, with a target price set at HK$415.00, representing a potential share price return of 91.8% from the current price of HK$216.40 [4][7]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to enhance the LABUBU IP with new product launches and designs, aiming for a strong market presence in 2026 [2]. - Pop Mart is expanding its international footprint, with plans to operate over 60 stores in the US by the end of 2025 and additional stores in Canada, Mexico, and the Middle East [8]. - The company is focusing on localized operations in overseas markets, including collaborations with local artists and IP designs [8]. Supply Chain Management - Pop Mart is optimizing its production strategy by initially producing 70% of projected sales volume and adjusting stock based on market demand, which is expected to improve sales projection accuracy [9]. - The company has expanded its overseas supply chain, with a portion of production now in Vietnam, and plans to establish more local warehouses for international markets [9].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Sany Heavy Industry with a target price of Rmb28.00, indicating an expected share price return of 35.5% and an expected total return of 37.9% [7]. Core Insights - Sany Heavy Industry is shifting its focus from aggressive pricing strategies to "quality growth," aiming for over 10% year-on-year revenue growth in China, driven by electrification and demand from non-property sectors [1][3]. - The company targets approximately 15% year-on-year revenue growth overseas, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, while utilizing its Indonesian facility to navigate geopolitical and tariff challenges in the US market [4]. - Mining equipment is identified as a key product area, with significant aftermarket opportunities, as it represents about 70% of lifecycle spending [5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The construction demand in China remains lukewarm, primarily due to weaker demand from property and infrastructure sectors. However, Sany expects to achieve over 10% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025-26 through electrification and increased crane demand from wind and petrochemical sectors [3]. Overseas Strategy - Sany aims for around 15% year-on-year revenue growth in international markets, with a positive outlook for demand in Africa and ASEAN. The company plans to leverage its Indonesian facility to ship excavators to the US, circumventing geopolitical and tariff issues [4]. Focus on Mining Equipment - The initial investment in mining equipment is only about 30% of total lifecycle spending, with aftermarket services accounting for approximately 70%. Sany's revenue from mining equipment exceeding 100 tons is projected to reach Rmb2 billion in 2025, with targets of Rmb3 billion in 2026 and Rmb6 billion by 2028 [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals with a target price of Rmb123.000, indicating an expected share price return of 95.5% and an expected total return of 95.9% [4]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals is positioned as a leading global biopharma, ranking No.2 in the size of its originated pipeline and No.3 in pipeline growth, benefiting from China's status as a significant source of global innovation [4][6]. - The report highlights that approximately 30% of global innovative drug trials originate from China, and about one-third of global innovative pipelines are from China-headquartered companies, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [2][3]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical market shows significant potential for growth in innovative drugs, which currently account for only about 14% of total drug sales in hospitals, compared to much higher percentages in developed markets [3]. Summary by Sections Globalization and Innovation - Jiangsu Hengrui has made substantial progress in globalization, with over 20 global trials ongoing and a diversified portfolio across key therapeutic areas [6]. - The company leverages global partnerships and in-house capabilities to maximize innovation impact, with a strong record in out-licensing and strategic partnerships since 2018 [6]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the demand for affordable innovation from China is expected to thrive due to increasing pricing pressures and the loss of exclusivity for leading multinational corporations [2]. - China's commitment to supporting innovative drugs is underscored by strong government backing for commercial health insurance, which is anticipated to improve coverage for innovative drugs in the future [3]. Financial Valuation - A discounted cash flow (DCF) approach is used to assess the fair value of Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, with a terminal growth rate of 4% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.3% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haidilao International Holding Ltd is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HK$18.50, indicating an expected share price return of 31.5% and an expected total return of 33.3% [4][7]. Core Insights - Haidilao experienced low single-digit year-over-year growth in table-turn in October, showing significant month-over-month improvement compared to a largely flat performance in the third quarter [1][2]. - Management anticipates less pressure on table-turn in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to seasonally cold weather and a low comparison base from the previous year, along with positive momentum expected in the first quarter of 2026 due to a longer Chinese New Year holiday period [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved sequentially in the third quarter of 2025, reaching 60.2%, aided by menu optimization efforts and lower labor costs [3]. - Management plans to terminate several loss-making pilot programs in the first quarter of 2026, which is expected to yield operational expense savings for the full year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Table-turn growth in October was driven by holiday consumption, effective consumer activation campaigns, and remodeled stores catering to new scenarios such as nightlife and family gatherings [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) for dine-in increased slightly in the third quarter of 2025, attributed to a higher mix of premium items [2]. Store Operations - Haidilao opened 59 new stores and closed approximately 60 stores while transferring over 50 stores to franchisees in the first ten months of 2025 [2]. - Delivery sales grew approximately 100% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, with projected delivery sales reaching around RMB 2 billion for the full year [2]. Margin Analysis - The GPM improved sequentially in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the first half of 2025, supported by menu optimization and reduced labor costs [3]. - Despite the improvement, 16 new piloting brands remain loss-making on an aggregate basis, prompting management to consider program terminations [3][4]. Valuation - The target price of HK$18.50 is based on a 12x 2025E EV/adjusted EBITDA, aligning with the trading average of global restaurant peers [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yihai International is Neutral, reflecting a weaker earnings outlook primarily driven by third-party sales and price competition [4][15]. Core Insights - Sales momentum for third-party business is expected to slow in the second half of 2025, impacted by negative publicity and competition in the convenience food segment [1][2]. - The company is shifting from a distributor-based model to direct sales with key accounts (KAs) to improve gross profit margin (GPM) and accelerate new product launches [3][10]. - Management anticipates a recovery in to-B sales growth in 2026, driven by overseas expansion and stabilization in domestic sales [2][10]. Financial Performance - Expected share price return is 11.4%, with a target price of HK$14.40 and a dividend yield of 5.8%, leading to a total expected return of 17.2% [4][15]. - The company reported a net profit of Rmb 826 million in 2023, with a projected decline to Rmb 726 million in 2025E, followed by a slight recovery to Rmb 765 million in 2026E [6][9]. - Gross profit margin for to-B is projected at 20-30%, while to-C is nearly 40%, with overall operating profit margins expected to remain stable [13][12]. Market Dynamics - The convenience food segment is currently facing a decline due to intense competition and product retirements, while the to-C business shows stable growth [2][10]. - Overseas business is expected to grow significantly, with management forecasting a 20-30% growth rate annually until at least 2027 [10][12]. - The company is experiencing a shift in sales mix, which may negatively impact third-party GPM due to price competition [15][11].

Investment Rating - The report rates Laopu Gold shares as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$1,119, indicating an expected share price return of 69.8% and an expected total return of 73.7% [5][22]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is expected to sustain high revenue growth in the second half of 2025, driven by price adjustments, new store sales annualization, and improved same-store sales growth (SSSG) [1][22]. - The company has successfully restored its gross profit margin (GPM) to over 40% following a recent price increase, which is anticipated to be reflected in 2026 earnings [2][10]. - Laopu's strategy includes more agile price adjustments to align with promotional activities, enhancing brand positioning while considering consumer perspectives [4][10]. Financial Performance - Laopu Gold's projected financials show significant growth, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 4,886 million in 2025E to RMB 8,325 million in 2027E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.8% [4][9]. - The company anticipates a gross margin of approximately 40.7% by 2027E, with a consistent increase in sales revenue projected from RMB 27,496 million in 2025E to RMB 40,826 million in 2027E [9][22]. Market Dynamics - The demand for Laopu's products remains strong post-price increase, with notable consumer interest in major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou, indicating a segment of consumers less sensitive to price changes [3][11]. - The recent gold VAT policy has increased raw material costs but has not necessitated further retail price increases, positioning Laopu favorably against competitors [10][12]. Expansion Strategy - Laopu plans to focus on expanding floor areas and optimizing locations within existing malls rather than entering new malls, which is expected to enhance customer experience and transaction volumes [13][21]. - The company is also looking to open 3-4 new stores internationally in 2026E, further solidifying its market presence [13][22]. Customer Insights - High net worth customers, while a small percentage of the customer base, contribute significantly to sales, indicating a targeted approach to cater to this demographic through exclusive services [15][16]. - The repurchase rate among customers is high, driven by cultural factors and the perception of gold as a valuable product, with repurchase contributions increasing from 30% in 2024 to 40% in 1H25 [16][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for CALB Group Co Ltd with a target price of HK$33.40, indicating an expected share price return of 3.3% [6]. Core Insights - CALB's battery shipment volume guidance for 2025E is set at 110GWh, with expectations to exceed this target based on year-to-date trends and production plans for the last two months of the year. For 2026E, the guidance is 180GWh, comprising 110GWh for EV batteries and 70GWh for ESS batteries [2][3]. - The completed battery capacity is projected to be over 160GWh by the end of 2025 and over 230GWh by the end of 2026, with effective capacities expected to be 130GWh and nearly 200GWh, respectively [2]. - Demand for ESS batteries is strong, with CALB operating at full capacity in 2025. The company anticipates sustained capacity amid shipment bottlenecks and strong demand growth from both existing and new clients in 2026-27E [3]. - Management expects a slight increase in the average selling price (ASP) of ESS batteries due to tight supply, but significant increases are unlikely. Margins in the ESS battery segment are expected to rise in 2026-27E due to increased shipments to overseas markets and higher-margin ESS system shipments [4]. - For EV batteries, effective capacity is expected to reach 85GWh in 2025E and 130GWh in 2026E. Shipment growth for EV batteries is anticipated to remain strong, with improved margins expected as shipments to international OEMs increase [5]. Summary by Sections Battery Shipment - CALB's battery shipment volume guidance for 2025E is 110GWh, with expectations to exceed this target. For 2026E, the guidance is 180GWh, including 110GWh for EV batteries and 70GWh for ESS batteries [2]. Battery Capacity - Completed battery capacity is expected to be over 160GWh in 2025 and over 230GWh in 2026, with effective capacities projected at 130GWh and nearly 200GWh, respectively [2]. ESS Battery - ESS battery demand is strong, with full utilization expected in 2025. Capacity is anticipated to be sustained in 2026 amid strong demand growth [3]. ESS Battery Price and Margin - Management expects a slight increase in ESS battery ASP due to tight supply, with margins expected to rise in 2026-27E due to increased shipments to overseas markets [4]. EV Battery - Effective capacity for EV batteries is projected at 85GWh in 2025E and 130GWh in 2026E, with strong shipment growth and improved margins expected [5].