金山云 从人工智能算力提供商角度重新审视投资主题 中国 证券研究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 金山云的股价自其发布 2024 年 3 季度业绩以来上涨 140%（同期中概互联网 指数基金上涨 8%），原因是公司向人工智能战略转型、以及拥抱小米和金 山集团生态系统的举措开始在财务上取得成效。我们认为，金山云的人工智 能收入增长前景的确定性高于许多其他人工智能股，原因是金山云与小米和 金山集团的独特关系、他们的模型训练对 GPU 算力的需求仍在不断增加， 且我们认为，他们会将大部分人工智能算力支出分配给金山云。另一方面， 我们预计，因供应链管理的日益复杂而引入第三方算力提供商会对金山云的 利润率产生负面影响。总之，我们认为，由于公司叙事的积极变化，金山云 的估值理应上调。我们维持对该股的"增持"评级，新目标价为 18.5 美元/10 港元，基于 4 倍的 2025 年预期企业价值/销售额倍数。 证券研究报告 中国证券研究主管及亚洲 TMT 研究联 席主管 证券分析师: 姚橙 AC (86 21) 6106 6505 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com 登记编号: S1730523020001 证券分析师 ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 05 June 2025 Akeso AK104 approval in 1L CC with catalysts ahead Akeso announced today that AK104, a PD-1/CTLA-4 bispecific antibody, has received approval in China for the first-line treatment of persistent, recurrent, or metastatic cervical cancer (CC). This treatment is to be used in combination with platinum-based chemotherapy, with or without bevacizumab, marking the third approved indication of AK104. Despite the market's focus on AK112, we believe AK104 is ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for HUTCHMED (HCM) with a 12-month price target of $18 for the ADR listed in the US, indicating a potential upside of 32.4% from the current price of $13.60 [12][14]. Core Insights - Increased investor focus is expected on savolitinib following data presentations at ASCO, with the company highlighting severe under-detection of MET amplification when using NGS testing compared to FISH testing [1][2]. - The company’s internal unpublished data suggests that only about 30% of patients who test positive for MET amplification via FISH would also test positive using the NGS method [2]. - The global Phase 3 SAFRON study of savolitinib in combination with osimertinib will offer patients the option of two companion diagnostics: FISH and IHC methods [2]. Summary by Sections MET Amplification Testing - Testing for MET amplification is crucial for patient selection, with a cross-study analysis indicating that NGS testing severely under-detects the biomarker compared to FISH [2]. - The MARIPOSA-2 study detected MET amplification in 14% of patients using ctDNA NGS, while the SACHI study showed approximately 30% detection using tissue FISH [5]. Clinical Efficacy - The SACHI study demonstrated a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 8.2 months for the savolitinib plus osimertinib combination compared to 4.5 months for chemotherapy, with a statistically significant hazard ratio of 0.34 [5][6]. - For patients previously treated with a 3rd-generation EGFR TKI, the median PFS was 6.9 months for the combination arm versus 3.0 months for chemotherapy, also showing a significant difference [6]. Safety Profile - The SAVANNAH study indicated a promising PFS curve separation with a manageable safety profile, although adverse events leading to dose interruption of savolitinib occurred in approximately 48% of patients [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on Zai Lab (ZLAB) shares, indicating a positive outlook on the stock's performance relative to its peers [2][4]. Core Insights - The ZL-1310 ASCO phase 1a/1b update demonstrates a compelling efficacy and safety profile, highlighting its differentiated potential in treating extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) [4]. - The 1.6 mg/kg cohort shows a 79% unconfirmed overall response rate (ORR) and a 100% disease control rate (DCR) in patients with one prior line of therapy, suggesting strong efficacy [4]. - The report anticipates that Zai Lab will initiate a pivotal trial in second-line SCLC later this year, which could further validate the drug's potential [4]. - The report estimates that assuming approximately $500 million in net sales/royalties to Zai Lab, this could add mid-single digits to the valuation of ZLAB shares [4]. Summary by Sections Efficacy and Safety Profile - The ZL-1310 trial data indicates a 67% unconfirmed ORR and a 97% DCR in the overall population of 33 patients [4]. - The safety profile is described as clean, with no discontinuations and Grade 3+ treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) at 6%, primarily consisting of anemia (2%) and neutropenia (4%) [4]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that Imdelltra (tarlatamab) has a ~40% ORR in relapsed/refractory ES-SCLC, positioning ZL-1310 favorably in comparison [4]. Future Outlook - Zai Lab's existing commercial franchise and upcoming product launches, along with a growing internal pipeline including ZL-1310, support the reiterated Overweight rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso, with a 12-month price target of $23.10 for ADR and HK$45.00 for H-share, indicating an upside potential of 34.5% and 33.7% respectively [14][17]. Core Insights - Miniso is expected to experience sequential sales growth acceleration, with management confident in margin improvement and a peak in DTC-related expenses in the first half of the year [1][2]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) turned positive in May for Miniso China, and positive trends were also observed in the US and other overseas markets [1][7]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings, focusing on both intellectual property (IP) products and value-for-money lifestyle products, with localized designs for overseas markets [1][10]. - Management aims to expand to over 1,000 stores in the US market, targeting a 20% operating profit margin in the mid to long term, despite potential short-term volatility [1][11]. Summary by Sections Sales Growth and Guidance - For Q2 2025, Miniso China is expected to achieve low teens percentage sales growth, while Miniso Overseas and Top Toy are projected to grow by 25%-30% and 70%-80% year-over-year respectively [8]. - If the SSSG recovery trend continues, operating profits are likely to turn positive in Q3, with full-year adjusted operating profits targeted at RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion [8]. Product Strategy - The company is enhancing its IP product quality and focusing on localized designs for international markets, while also improving the merchandising of value-for-money products [10][12]. - A dedicated zone for top-selling products has been added to increase conversion rates, and inventory management will be prioritized to avoid stockouts of best-sellers [11]. Market Performance - Year-to-date, Miniso China's SSSG has shown improvement, with positive trends in the US market and other overseas markets noted in April and May [7][11]. - The US market has seen the opening of approximately 20 new stores, primarily in plaza locations, achieving double-digit operating profit margins despite being in a low season [11]. Long-term Outlook - Miniso is positioned to become a leading global IP retailer, with catalysts for share price growth including accelerated store expansion, improved SSSG, and higher contributions from IP products [14]. - The market currently underappreciates Miniso's potential adjusted net income compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% from 2024 to 2026, excluding contributions from Yonghui [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for Laopu Gold with a price target of HK$1,149.00 for December 2025, up from a prior target of HK$1,111.00 [4][26]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is positioned as a niche luxury brand in the China heritage gold sector, with a market share of 2% as of 2023 and a strong focus on tier 1 and new tier 1 cities, which account for over 85% of its sales [10][26]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61% in sales and 68% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by the growth of the heritage gold segment, store expansion, and enhanced brand equity [10][26]. - Laopu plans to open at least eight new boutiques in 2025, surpassing the seven opened in 2024, and will continue refreshing existing boutiques [7][10]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue Projections - Revenue estimates for 2025 have been raised from Rmb 18,780 million to Rmb 19,973 million, and for 2026 from Rmb 26,172 million to Rmb 28,061 million [5]. - The company targets mid-term sales per shopping mall to reach Rmb 1 billion by 2025, significantly higher than the Rmb 300 million expected in 2024 [10]. Boutique Expansion and Strategy - Laopu's expansion strategy includes opening its first overseas boutique in Singapore and a differentiated product offering in Tokyo targeting non-Chinese customers [10][26]. - The company plans to refresh at least four existing boutiques in 2025, maintaining the same level as in 2024 [7][10]. Market and Pricing Dynamics - Laopu's management is optimistic about the upward trend in gold prices, with expectations of a 41% increase in 2025 and 21% in 2026, which will support further penetration into target consumer groups [7][20]. - The company has implemented a price adjustment policy to maintain a gross profit margin (GPM) target of over 40%, with expectations of 1-2 additional price increases in 2025 [7][10]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - The report projects a significant increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) from Rmb 9.47 in 2025 to Rmb 24.14 in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 154.8% [9][10]. - The DCF-based price target of HK$1,149 implies a forward P/E ratio of 32x for 2025 [27]. Performance Drivers - Laopu's strong performance is attributed to its high single-store sales, pricing premium over local brands, and a robust retail experience that enhances customer loyalty [10][26]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable product mix and operational leverage, leading to a net margin expansion of 1.5 percentage points in 2025 [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for CSPC Pharma with a 12-month price target of HK$8.74, indicating an upside potential of 14.7% from the current price of HK$7.62 [13][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that CSPC Pharma experienced a revenue decline of 22% in Q1, primarily due to a high base in Q1 2024, ongoing pressure from volume-based procurement (VBP), and a 12.5% price cut for NBP injection [1]. - Despite the revenue miss, earnings showed resilience, supported by out-licensing income and significant expense cuts, particularly in selling expenses [1]. - Management has revised its guidance for 2025, focusing on sequential improvement rather than positive sales growth, and plans to pursue three more business development (BD) deals with a potential total deal size exceeding US$5 billion [2][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Performance - CSPC Pharma's sales in Q1 declined by 22% year-on-year, with finished drug sales down 27% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings for Q1 were reported at Rmb1.5 billion, an 8% decrease year-on-year, but were bolstered by Rmb718 million from out-licensing [1]. - Core earnings, excluding BD income, are estimated to have declined by approximately 45% year-on-year [1]. Business Development and Licensing - The company is actively negotiating three potential BD deals, with one expected to close in June, focusing on SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) and other technology collaborations [2]. - In Q1, CSPC Pharma booked US$40 million from the AZ deal and US$60 million from the BeOne deal, with expectations of over Rmb1 billion in additional income from new deals throughout the year [2]. Clinical Development and Pipeline - SYS6010 is prioritized for clinical development, with ongoing phase 3 studies for NSCLC and plans for further trials in various solid tumors [3][7]. - The company is preparing for pivotal studies outside China and aims to apply for breakthrough designation for certain assets [7]. Shareholder Returns and Incentives - CSPC Pharma plans to utilize operational cash flow for R&D and higher dividends, with a share buyback target of up to HK$5 billion over the next 24 months [8]. - A share-based incentive program is set to cover 200-300 key staff, with additional coverage planned for the second half of 2025 [8]. Financial Projections - Earnings estimates have been revised down by 7.7% for 2025 due to lower-than-expected finished drug sales, but the price target has increased from HK$7.84 to HK$8.74 [9]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at Rmb30.1 billion, with expectations of gradual recovery in subsequent years [14].

27 May 2025 | 7:23AM HKT Miniso (MNSO): NDR takeaways: topline target intact, margin pressure to sequentially narrow ahead; Buy We hosted Miniso for an NDR on May 26 post the 1Q25 result. The US market's margin and operations, Miniso China's performance and the store network plan were among the key investor focus areas. Takeaways include: 1) Management reiterated its guidance to deliver topline growth acceleration yoy (vs. 23% in 2024) and sequentially, where management is confident of driving low teens% Mi ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on CATL H-shares with a Buy rating and sets a target price of HK$425. The A-share target price is raised to Rmb391 from Rmb362 [1][5]. Core Viewpoints - CATL is transforming into a leader in new energy technology and solutions, well-positioned to benefit from long-term growth in the global electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) battery markets [1][5]. - Despite a slowdown in global battery demand growth, the effective utilization ratio in the battery industry is expected to improve due to slower capacity expansion, with CATL's capacity utilization projected to exceed the industry average [2][10]. - The impact of US tariffs and geopolitical risks on CATL is expected to be limited due to its low exposure to the US market [3][18]. - Margins in the ESS battery segment are anticipated to rebound in the latter half of 2025 as sales to overseas markets increase [4][20]. Summary by Sections Addressing Investor Concerns - **Global Battery Demand Growth**: Expected to slow to 25% in 2025 and 26% in 2026, down from 40% in 2023 and 30% in 2024. The global battery effective utilization ratio is projected to rise to 58%/59% in 2025/26 from 57% in 2024 [2][10]. - **Impact of US Tariffs**: CATL's battery shipments to the US fell to 2-3% of total shipments in 1Q25, indicating limited exposure and impact from tariffs [3][18]. - **Unit GP and EBIT Pressure**: CATL's margins are expected to recover in 2-4Q25E with an increase in overseas sales, which typically have higher margins [4][20]. Company Description - CATL is the largest battery producer globally, specializing in rechargeable lithium-ion batteries for EVs and ESS, with a sales volume of 381GWh for EVs and 93GWh for ESS in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% and 35% respectively [41]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes CATL's strategic positioning in the new energy sector and its potential to capitalize on the growing demand for EVs and ESS, reinforcing its status as a top pick in the battery supply chain [5][29]. Valuation - The target price for CATL A-shares is set at Rmb391, based on a 16.6x EV/EBITDA for 2025, while the H-share target price of HK$425 implies a 28.2x P/E for 2025 and 22.4x for 2026 [5][29].

24 May 2025 | 1:54AM HKT Miniso (MNSO) Buy Earnings review: A year of transition; SSSG sequentially improved, but margin still dragged by DTC; Buy | MNSO | 12m Price Target: $23.40 | Price: $22.19 | Upside: 5.5% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9896.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$46.00 | Price: HK$42.25 | Upside: 8.9% | Miniso reported 1Q25 with 19% yoy revenue growth which was slightly above GSe and the company's earlier guidance of 15%-18% yoy; yet adj. OP declined by 5% yoy and was 9% below GSe, implying 4.2pp a ...