Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group with a target price of RMB 93.00, corresponding to a 16x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5][28]. Core Insights - Midea Group's management has guided a revenue growth of 5%-10% for 2025, with profit growth expected to be faster. The core home appliance business is anticipated to grow within this range, while overseas business is expected to grow faster due to OBM drivers. The 2B business is projected to grow at a double-digit rate [1][2]. - The company emphasizes continuous product structure upgrades as a key strategy for improving profitability, with high-end brands COLMO and Toshiba achieving RMB 15 billion in sales in 2024, a 30% year-on-year increase [2]. - Midea is focusing on its core business and plans to exit or stop operations in less profitable areas, reiterating its "focus on core" strategy initiated in 2022 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Midea Group are as follows: - 2023: RMB 373.71 billion - 2024E: RMB 415.40 billion - 2025E: RMB 458.94 billion - 2026E: RMB 494.01 billion [7]. - The estimated CAGR for earnings from 2024E to 2026E is 12% [4]. Competitive Landscape - Midea acknowledges the competitive threat posed by Xiaomi, particularly in channel efficiency and "explosive product strategy." In response, Midea plans to enhance its channel capabilities and introduce more entry-level SKUs under the Hualing brand, which offer better technology and quality at lower prices [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a target price of RMB 93.00 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting a 16x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5]. - The stock is currently trading at RMB 74.30, indicating a potential upside of 25.2% [9]. Market Data - Midea Group's market capitalization is approximately RMB 511 billion (USD 69.7 billion) with a circulating share ratio of 97% [5]. - The average daily trading volume is 34,443 thousand shares, with an average daily turnover of RMB 2,532.9 million [5]. Dividend and Earnings - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Midea Group are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 5.02 - 2025E: RMB 5.67 - 2026E: RMB 6.26 [7]. - The expected dividend per share for 2025 is RMB 3.74, yielding a net dividend yield of 5.0% [7]. Conclusion - Midea Group is positioned for steady growth driven by product upgrades and a focus on core business areas, with a favorable outlook for profitability and market performance in the coming years [1][2][4].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating for China, Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, while it is Market Weight (MW) for India, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Malaysia, and Underweight (UW) for Australia, Hong Kong, and Thailand [1] - Utilities are upgraded to Overweight (OW), while staples are downgraded to Market Weight (MW) [1] Core Views - The Asia-Pacific region faces headwinds at the start of 2025, including mixed activity data, higher US 10-year yields, a stronger dollar, potential US tariffs, and elevated economic policy uncertainty [1] - Moderate returns are expected in 2025, driven by policy support, resilience, and core fundamentals [1] - The MXAPJ index target is trimmed to 620 from 630, implying a 9% USD return [1] - Earnings delivery and shareholder yield are key screening criteria, alongside structural themes like AI beneficiaries and defense spending [1] China Strategy - Chinese equities are expected to rebound after a three-year bad streak, with policy support providing a floor for the market [1] - Fiscal policy delivery is crucial for driving equity gains in 2025 [1] - Deflation is detrimental to equity returns, and China's equity market has become more investable for domestic investors [1] - ETFs have seen impressive growth, and RMB 3 trillion has been returned to shareholders [1] Asia Macro - US tariffs are a major external uncertainty for 2025, with China and Vietnam at significant risk [5] - Interest rate cuts are expected across most Asian economies, except Japan, where rate hikes are anticipated [5] - China's housing market is not expected to bottom out, and fiscal policy is expected to ease with a tilt towards consumption-oriented policies [5] Company-Specific Insights TSMC - TSMC is expected to see solid revenue growth of 26.8% YoY in 2025, driven by strong demand for leading-edge nodes, particularly AI [6] - A mid-high single-digit price hike for 3nm/5nm nodes and a 10%+ price hike for CoWoS are expected, with gross margins projected to grow to 59.3% in 2025 [6] - The 12-month target price is raised to NT$1,355 from NT$1,320 [6] Yum China - Yum China is expected to report 4.4% YoY sales growth, 4.6% restaurant profits growth, and 20.4% operating profits growth in 4Q24 [6] - SSSG for KFC and Pizza Hut is expected at -1% and -3% YoY, respectively, with 433 net store openings in 4Q24 [6] - The 12-month target price is lowered to US$58/HK$452 [6] Tencent - Tencent's platform leadership and generative AI strategies are highlighted, with a focus on critical resources and multi-strategies for AI opportunities [6] - The 12-month target price is set at HK$542 [6] GCPL - GCPL is expected to recover from cyclical headwinds, with a gradual recovery in home insecticides and soap volumes starting in 4QFY25 [8] - The 12-month target price is set at Rs1,370 [8] Japan Chemicals - Toray and Kuraray are top picks for 2025, with Toray expected to see 23% annual business profit growth and Kuraray expected to see a 21% CAGR in operating profit [8] - The 12-month target price for Toray is raised to ¥1,210, and for Kuraray to ¥2,900 [8] Kotak Mahindra Bank - The bank faces near-term challenges due to the resignation of its CTO, with investor focus on resolving tech-related issues [9] - The 12-month target price is set at Rs2,286 [9] Korea Views - Korea's caretaker government has released economic policy measures for 2025, aiming to stabilize financial markets and limit downside risks [11] - A gradual 25bp rate cut is expected in each of Q1, Q2, and Q3, with a risk of more rapid easing if domestic activity weakens [11] US Strategy - The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 11% to 6500 in 2025, driven by EPS growth [13] - Earnings growth is expected to be 11% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, with the forward P/E multiple remaining at 21.5x [13] Global FX & Rates - The US dollar is expected to remain strong in 2025, driven by tariff risks and divergent growth prospects [13] - The US yield curve is expected to steepen, with risks to higher yields in longer maturities [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating on Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$70 00, implying a 10 3% upside from the current price of HK$63 45 [1][10] Core Views - Pop Mart reported **3Q24 revenue growth of 120%-125% YoY**, significantly exceeding the company's guidance of >62% YoY growth and showing acceleration from 1H24/2Q24 for both China and overseas markets [1] - **Mainland China sales grew by 55%-60% YoY**, outperforming prior estimates of 30% YoY growth, driven by strong performance in retail stores (30%-35% YoY) and e-commerce channels (135%-140% YoY) [1] - **Overseas sales surged by 440%-445% YoY**, well above the full-year target of >200% YoY, supported by strong store productivity and brand momentum [1][5] - The company's **overseas sales mix surpassed 45% in September**, up from 30% in 1H24, which is expected to further benefit gross profit margins (GPM) and operating leverage [1] - Pop Mart's **Labubu plush toy**, a star product, contributed 10% of sales in 1H24 with a 10x YoY increase, maintaining a price premium in the secondary market despite increased supply [1][8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **2024E revenue** is revised up to RMB 11,890 7 million (12 8% increase from prior estimates), with **2026E revenue** projected at RMB 18,143 5 million (15 7% increase) [9] - **EBITDA for 2024E** is forecasted at RMB 4,340 1 million, with **2026E EBITDA** expected to reach RMB 6,591 6 million [1] - **EPS for 2024E** is revised up to RMB 1 92 (12 1% increase), with **2026E EPS** projected at RMB 2 86 [1][9] - The report applies a **25X P/E multiple** (up from 20X) to 2026E earnings, discounted back to 2025E with a 12% cost of equity (COE) [10] Operational Metrics - **Mainland China sales by channel**: Retail stores grew by 30%-35% YoY, Pop Draw by 55%-60% YoY, and e-commerce platforms by 135%-140% YoY, with notable acceleration from Tmall flagship store and TikTok [1][5] - **Overseas sales** accounted for 37 7% of total sales in 2024E, up from 35 0% in prior estimates, reflecting faster growth in international markets [9] - **Gross profit margin (GPM)** for overseas sales is expected to improve, reaching 70 9% in 2024E, up from 70 3% in prior estimates [9] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart is currently trading at **24X 2025E P/E**, with the revised price target of HK$70 implying limited upside potential, justifying the Neutral rating [10] - The report highlights **strong IP momentum** and solid execution in category expansion as key drivers of Pop Mart's growth, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of **US$26.4/HK$52** per ADR/H-share, based on **18x CY2025E P/E** [1][8] Core Views - Miniso is expected to report **21% YoY growth in Group sales** to **RMB4.58bn** in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas performance, particularly in distributor markets [1][3] - **China sales** are expected to grow by **8% YoY**, slightly below management's earlier target, due to a weak consumption backdrop [1] - **Overseas sales** are projected to grow by **40% YoY**, with **DTC markets** up **55% YoY** and **distributor markets** accelerating to **28% YoY growth** [1][4] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to grow by **51% YoY**, driven by store expansion and favorable product mix [1][5] Sales Breakdown - **Mainland China sales** are forecasted at **RMB2.49bn**, growing **8% YoY**, decelerating from **18% YoY** in 2Q24 [4] - **Overseas sales** are expected to reach **RMB1.8bn**, with **DTC markets** contributing **55% YoY growth** and **distributor markets** growing **28% YoY** [4] - **Top Toy brand** sales are projected to reach **RMB272mn**, with a **33% GPM**, reflecting a **4pp QoQ expansion** due to a favorable product mix [5] Margins and Profitability - **Group GPM** is expected to expand by **4pp YoY**, driven by a higher mix of **overseas DTC** and **Top Toy margin improvement** [1] - **Adjusted OPM** is forecasted to decline by **2pp YoY** to **19%**, due to near-term investments in **US store expansion** and **24H Super stores** [1] - **Adjusted net income** is expected to grow by **9% YoY** to **RMB696mn**, with a **15.2% adjusted NPM** [5] Store Expansion - **Miniso brand** is expected to add **105 net stores** in Mainland China in 3Q24, reaching **4,220 stores** by the end of the quarter [3] - **Overseas store openings** are projected at **180 net stores** in 3Q24, with a full-year target of **550-650 stores** [3] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to reach **235 stores** by 3Q24, with **40 net openings** in the quarter and a full-year target of **112 stores** [5] Catalysts and Outlook - Key catalysts for 4Q24 include the **launch of Harry Potter IP** and the **upcoming holiday season**, particularly in the US where store expansion is accelerating [1] - The report highlights potential **tax credits** for the US business in 2H24, given the turnaround from the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sunny Optical is maintained at Neutral with a 12-month target price of HK$63.50, based on a P/E multiple of 23.3x for 2025E [6][9]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical's September shipments showed a year-on-year increase of 6% for handset lenses, while camera module shipments decreased by 30% year-on-year. Vehicle lens shipments increased by 13% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to improve its gross margin (GM) to 17.5% in the second half of 2024, up from 14.1% in the second half of 2023 and 17.2% in the first half of 2024, driven by product mix upgrades towards mid and high-end smartphone projects [1][4]. - The overall shipment performance for the first nine months of 2024 is largely in line with estimates, with handset lens shipments tracking 77% of the 2024 estimates, vehicle lens at 78%, and camera modules at 74% [2][4]. Shipment Performance Summary - Handset lens shipments in September were 119 million units, a decrease of 4% month-on-month but an increase of 6% year-on-year, leading to a total of 993 million units for the first nine months of 2024, representing a 20% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - Camera module shipments were 37 million units in September, down 30% year-on-year, with a total of 409 million units for the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4]. - Vehicle lens shipments reached 9 million units in September, up 13% year-on-year, contributing to a total of 80 million units for the first nine months of 2024 [2][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Sunny Optical are estimated to reach RMB 37.63 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to RMB 45.36 billion in 2025 and RMB 53.74 billion in 2026 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 2.08 in 2024, increasing to RMB 2.56 in 2025 and RMB 3.24 in 2026 [9].

8 October 2024 | 6:23AM HKT CSPC Pharma (1093.HK): First overseas BD deal with MNC; Licensing-out a metabolism drug Licensing-out a pre-clinical metabolism asset to AstraZeneca (AZ): CSPC announced plans to license out the global rights of YS2302018, a lipoprotein(a) (Lpa) small molecule inhibitor in pre-clinical stage and any product that contains YS2302018, which could refer to combination therapy, to AstraZeneca for: 1) an upfront payment of US$100mn, which we see as quite meaningful for a pre-clinical a ...

7 October 2024 | 8:13PM HKT | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|----------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Yuexiu Property Co Ltd, indicating a favorable outlook compared to peers [1][3][5]. Core Insights - Yuexiu Property is expected to outperform its peers in sales, profitability, and dividend prospects due to its high-quality sellable resources and superior land reserve channels [1][5]. - The company has a strong financial position and low liquidity risk, supported by its state-owned enterprise (SOE) background [1][6]. - The report anticipates a target price of HKD 5.48, representing a potential upside of approximately 20% from the current price [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Growth and Land Reserves - Yuexiu Property has approximately RMB 330 billion in unsold sellable resources, with over 65% located in first-tier cities and more than 30% in second-tier cities [5][6]. - The company has maintained a land acquisition strategy that allows it to purchase land at lower costs, with 60% of its unsold resources acquired during a period of significant price adjustments in 2022 [5][6]. Financing and Liquidity - The company has maintained a net debt ratio of 60% and a cash coverage ratio of 1.5 times for short-term debt, indicating strong liquidity [1][6]. - Yuexiu Property benefits from a diversified financing capability, with an average financing cost of 3.57%, one of the lowest among its peers [6]. Management Incentives and Dividend Yield - The management has implemented equity incentive plans to align interests with shareholders, aiming for a stable dividend payout ratio of 40% [2][5]. - The expected dividend yield for 2024-2026 is projected to be between 7-9%, which is among the highest in the industry [2][5]. Valuation and Market Position - The report highlights that Yuexiu Property's current valuation appears attractive at 5.0 times the 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, compared to 5.1 times for its H-share SOE peers [5][6]. - The company is expected to increase its market share to 1.3% in 2024, up from 1.2% in 2023, positioning it among China's top ten developers [5][6].

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