Investment Rating - The investment rating for Newborn Town (09911.HK) is "BUY" with a target price of HK$ 3.31, reduced from the previous target price of HK$ 3.78 [20][28]. Core Insights - Newborn Town reported a total revenue of RMB 3.3 billion and a profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 512.8 million, slightly exceeding estimates. The strong performance of apps like Sugo and TopTop in the MENA market contributed significantly, with revenue increases of approximately 3x and 2x year-on-year respectively. However, the app Mico experienced a significant decline of over 30% year-on-year, which was unexpected and negatively impacted overall performance [9][26][28]. - The company aims to develop two more flagship social networking apps with expected monthly revenues exceeding USD 10 million within three years, although details on these apps remain limited [9][28]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 4,190.7 million in 2024, RMB 4,542.0 million in 2025, and RMB 4,880.5 million in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.7%, 8.4%, and 7.5% respectively [6][16]. - Gross margin has shown resilience, maintaining above 50%, with a reported gross margin of 52.1% for 2023, an increase of 14.3 percentage points from previous estimates [10][22]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 449.5 million in 2024, RMB 472.1 million in 2025, and RMB 499.3 million in 2026, indicating a growth trajectory despite challenges [24][32]. Market Position and Competitors - Newborn Town's market capitalization is approximately HK$ 3.1 billion, with a current stock price of HK$ 1.85 [5][21]. - The company is positioned within a competitive landscape, with peers showing varied performance metrics, highlighting the challenges faced in replicating successful app performance [14][31].

M N 2 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) Impressive business rebound in 2023 Target Price HK$4.43 Jinxin Fertility (Jinxin) reported 2023 revenue of RMB2,789mn, up 18.0% YoY. (Previous TP HK$7.35) Non-IFRS adjusted net profit grew substantially by 72.0% YoY to RMB472mn. Up/Downside 82.3% Revenue was in line with our forecast while non-IFRS adjusted net income Current Price HK$2.43 slightly missed our forecast by 5.7%, which was mainly attr ...

M N 2 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tigermed (300347 CH) Expect business rebound in 2024E Target Price RMB68.57 Tigermed reported 2023 revenue of RMB7,384mn, up 4.2% YoY, and attributable (Previous TP RMB80.31) recurring net income of RMB1,477mn, down 4.1% YoY. Revenue/ attributable Up/Downside 29.1% recurring net income missed our forecast by 2.9%/ 12.1%, respectively, mainly Current Price RMB53.10 due to shrinking COVID vaccine revenue, slowdown in global R&D ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a new SOTP-based target price of HK$22.19, reflecting a 49% upside from the current price of HK$14.94 [1][15]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's SU7 Series electric sedans launched on March 28, 2024, with competitive pricing and strong initial pre-orders, indicating positive market reception. The pre-orders reached 50,000 units in the first 27 minutes and 89,000 units within 24 hours, surpassing market expectations [1][2]. - The report highlights Xiaomi's unique "Human-car-home" ecosystem as a major competitive advantage over other EV brands, which is expected to drive future growth [1][2]. - Adjustments to revenue forecasts reflect expected EV shipments of 80,000, 150,000, and 200,000 units for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at RMB 321,495 million, with a year-on-year growth of 18.6%. The adjusted net profit is estimated at RMB 17,321 million, reflecting a decline of 10.1% year-on-year [4][10]. - The report indicates a gross margin of 19.0% for FY24, with an operating margin of 4.8% and an adjusted net margin of 5.4% [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 is projected at RMB 0.70, with subsequent years showing gradual increases [4][10]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, assigning different price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples to Xiaomi's various business segments: 13x for smartphones, 10x for AIoT, and 15x for internet services. The EV business is valued at 0.75x FY25E price-to-sales (P/S) [15][16]. - The total valuation for Xiaomi is estimated at RMB 508,115 million, leading to a target price of HK$22.19 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Joinn Laboratories with a target price revised to HK$14.41 from HK$21.18, reflecting a potential upside of 57.1% from the current price of HK$9.17 [2][4]. Core Insights - Joinn Laboratories reported a revenue of RMB2,376 million for 2023, representing a 4.8% year-over-year increase, while attributable net income fell by 66.9% to RMB338 million due to fair value losses from biological assets [2]. - The company anticipates that revenue for 2024 will remain on par with 2023, facing continued pressure on profitability due to uncertainties in the R&D recovery of the domestic pharmaceutical market [2]. - Early signs of stabilizing client demand were noted, with a 20% year-over-year growth in contract booking volume in January-February 2024 [2]. - Joinn's overseas business saw a significant revenue increase of 51% year-over-year in 2023, driven by the performance of Biomere [2]. Financial Summary - For FY23, Joinn's revenue was RMB2,376 million, with a projected revenue of RMB2,425 million for FY24, indicating a modest growth of 2.0% [3][9]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23 was RMB481.6 million, with expectations of RMB436 million for FY24, reflecting a decline of 9.5% [3][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to decrease to 38.08% in FY24, with operating and net margins also projected to decline [5][12]. Operational Developments - Joinn has completed the construction of its Phase II facilities in Suzhou and is strategically planning the operational launch of these sites in line with market conditions [2]. - The company plans to hire an additional 100-200 staff in 2024 to support growth in emerging service areas, particularly clinical services [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a DCF valuation with a WACC of 12.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, leading to a target price of HK$14.41 per share [7][4]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24 is projected at RMB0.58, with a P/E ratio of 15.5x for FY24 [3][12].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a new target price (TTM) of HK$11.9, implying 1.0x FY24E P/B [2][7] Core Views - PICC P&C reported a solid underwriting combined ratio (CoR) of 97.8%, 0.3pct lower than the estimate, driven by better-than-expected non-auto CoR at 99.1% [2] - The company is expected to sustain a payout ratio of over 40% in the next two years, with a dividend yield of 5.7% in FY24E [2][7] - The auto segment met guidance with a CoR of 96.9%, while non-auto outperformed, particularly in individual A&H, which achieved RMB1.0bn underwriting profits [2] - The company's long-term auto premium growth is adjusted to 5%, with NEV profitability expected to improve [2] Financial Performance - Net profit for FY23A was RMB24.6bn, with EPS of RMB1.11, and is expected to grow to RMB30.0bn in FY24E [4] - The combined ratio is forecasted to improve from 97.8% in FY23A to 96.9% by FY26E [4] - ROE is expected to recover from 10.8% in FY23A to 12.6% by FY26E [4] Valuation - The stock is currently trading at 0.84x FY24 P/B, with a target valuation of HK$11.9 based on P/B-ROE [7][8] - Key valuation assumptions include a long-term growth rate of 3%, a revised long-term ROE of 12.8%, and a cost of equity of 9.7% [7] Dividend Policy - The company raised DPS by 2.3% YoY to RMB0.489 per share in 2023, maintaining a payout ratio of 44.2% [2] - Management guided to maintain a robust payout ratio of over 40% in the next two years [2] Segment Performance - Auto premiums grew by 5.3% YoY to RMB285.6bn, with a conversion rate of 98.8% [2] - Non-auto individual A&H achieved RMB43.7bn in insurance revenue, growing 23.8% YoY, with a CoR of 97.7% [2] Future Outlook - The company expects a lift in auto comprehensive loss ratio and a contraction in comprehensive expense ratio to 70.6%/26.1% in FY24E [2] - NEV profitability is anticipated to improve, with NEV CoR expected to drop below 100% [2]

M N 29 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update BYDE (285 HK) Reiterate BUY on multiple growth drivers in 2024 Target Price HK$46.51 Reiterate BUY and raise TP to HK$46.51 (61% upside) to reflect a strong (Previous TP HK$45.86) outlook and multiple growth drivers in 2024: 1) Android high-end demand Up/Downside 61.2% recovery (e.g. Huawei, Xiaomi); 2) Jabil sales synergy and strong ramp in 2H24; Current Price HK$28.85 3) Apple’s share gain with sales contribution rising to ...

M N 29 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update SANY International (631 HK) Solar power business remains major investor concern during site visit Target Price HK$8.00 We attended SANYI’s 2023 post-results meeting together with >70 investors and analysts in the Company’s production base in Zhuhai on 28 Mar. During the (Previous TP HK$15.40) meeting, most of the questions were related to the solar power business. Given Up/Downside 59.0% SANYI’s determination to invest in so ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a new target price of HK$22.0 [2][6] Core Viewpoints - ZhongAn reported a significant turnaround in FY23, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB4.1bn, compared to a net loss of RMB1.1bn in FY22 [2] - Excluding the one-off gain from the disposal of ZA International (RMB3.78bn), the insurer recorded a net profit of RMB294mn, in line with consensus [2] - The company's growth is driven by its digital lifestyle ecosystem, technology export, and ZA Bank's breakeven progress [2][6] Domestic P&C Insurance - Domestic P&C insurance premiums grew by 33.1% YoY in 2H23, driven by digital lifestyle-related products such as e-commerce cargo insurance, travel insurance, and pet insurance [2] - The underwriting combined ratio (CoR) rose 1.0ppt to 95.2% in 2023, but underwriting profit (UWP) increased by 1.7% YoY to RMB1.3bn due to higher insurance revenue (+24.2% YoY) [2] - The health segment saw a 130.6% YoY increase in gross written premiums (GWP) for critical illness insurance, reaching RMB1.3bn in 2023 [2] Technology Export - Revenue from domestic technology export surged 73% YoY to RMB504mn in 2023, benefiting from the Digital China initiative [2] ZA Bank Performance - ZA Bank's net revenue increased by 42.9% YoY to RMB366mn in 2023, with a net interest margin (NIM) expansion of 10bps to 1.94% [2] - The bank launched US-stock trading in January 2024, which is expected to attract tech-savvy customers and improve retention [2] Proprietary Channels - Premiums from proprietary channels grew 31.0% YoY to RMB7.6bn, accounting for 26% of total GWP [2] - In the Health ecosystem, GWP from proprietary channels increased by 45.0% YoY to RMB4.4bn, representing 44.5% of total Health GWP [2] - The number of paid customers rose 14.8% to 11.43mn, with premiums per user increasing by 14.4% YoY to RMB670 [2] Financial Projections - FY24-26E net profit is projected at RMB434mn, RMB547mn, and RMB678mn, respectively [3] - The underwriting combined ratio (CoR) is expected to remain stable at 95.8%/96.0%/96.0% for FY24-26E, with underwriting profits projected at RMB1.38bn/RMB1.56bn/RMB1.77bn [6] Valuation - The stock is trading at FY24E 0.9x P/B and FY24E 0.5x P/S [5] - The fair value is based on a FY24E P/B of 1.46x, implying a 20-year growth rate of 8% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for DPC Dash with a target price of HK$73.05, reflecting a potential upside of 25.2% from the current price of HK$53.50 [6][8][17]. Core Insights - DPC Dash's FY23 results were in line with expectations, showing a 51% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 3.1 billion, driven by strong same-store sales growth (SSSG) and increased sales per store in new growth markets [2][9]. - The company is optimistic about FY24E, expecting continued positive SSSG despite challenges such as a high base from FY23 and seasonal factors affecting sales [2][9]. - The management has reiterated its store opening plan, targeting 240 new stores in FY24E, with a more positive outlook for FY25E-26E, aiming for 300 to 350 new stores [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,051 million in FY23A to RMB 4,118 million in FY24E, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [3][10]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve to 1.3% in FY24E, with net profit projected to turn positive at RMB 15 million [3][10]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 72.6% for FY24E [10][11]. Sales and Growth Projections - DPC Dash's sales per store in Beijing and Shanghai are expected to grow by 3% and 5% respectively, while new growth markets are anticipated to see higher growth rates [2][10]. - The company has seen strong initial sales in new cities, with first-month sales exceeding RMB 5 million in locations like Xi'an and Changsha [2][9]. - The delivery mix in new growth markets remains low at 42%, indicating potential for future growth in SSSG [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that DPC Dash is currently trading at 1.5x FY24E P/S, which is higher than the peer average of 1.3x, but still considered attractive due to a projected 32% sales CAGR from FY23 to FY26E [2][6][13]. - A DCF valuation method supports a share price estimate of HK$73.14, aligning closely with the target price based on P/S multiples [17][18].