Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a new target price of HK$52.00, implying a 57.6% upside from the current price of HK$33.00 [21][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in OPAT by 19.7% to RMB 118.0 billion, primarily due to a net loss of RMB 20.7 billion from asset management. Despite this, the company sustained dividend per share (DPS) growth to RMB 2.43, reflecting a 37.3% payout on shareholders' OPAT [21][24]. - The life and health (L&H) value of new business (VNB) amounted to RMB 39.3 billion, representing a 36.2% year-on-year increase, driven by stable VNB margins [21][24]. - Economic assumptions were adjusted, lowering the long-term investment return from 5.0% to 4.5% and the risk discount rate from 11% to 9.5%, which resulted in a significant impact on the embedded value (EV) and VNB [21][24]. Financial Summary - For FY23, net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 85.7 billion, down 22.8% from the previous year, with a reported EPS of RMB 4.84 [29][30]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 11,583.4 billion in FY23 to RMB 13,760.7 billion by FY26, indicating a steady increase in asset base [11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.7% in FY23 to 14.3% by FY26, reflecting enhanced profitability [30]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.45x FY24E P/EV, with a target valuation of 1.0x FY24E P/EV and 0.9x FY24E P/B [24][28]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to increase from 6.9% in FY23 to 8.7% by FY26, indicating a strong return to shareholders [3][30]. Embedded Value and Sensitivity Analysis - The Group's embedded value is estimated at RMB 1,390.1 billion for FY23, reflecting a decrease of 6.7% due to the revised economic assumptions [21][25]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 50 basis point decrease in long-term investment return could lead to a 7.6% decline in Group EV [8][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for New Hope Services with a target price of HK$2.79, reflecting an upside potential of 86.9% from the current price of HK$1.49 [1][3]. Core Insights - New Hope Services reported a net profit (NP) increase of 6% year-on-year (YoY) for FY23, with earnings slightly below expectations. The company achieved revenue growth of 10.7% YoY, totaling RMB1,261 million [1][6]. - The company raised its dividend payout ratio to 60% from 48% in FY22, resulting in a dividend yield of 12%, which positively impacted the share price by 6% following the announcement [1][6]. - New Hope Services has a strong cash position, with a cash balance of RMB1.15 billion, exceeding its market capitalization of HK$1.21 billion, indicating robust cash collection capabilities [1][3]. Financial Performance - FY23 revenue was RMB1,261 million, up 10.7% YoY, while net profit reached RMB215 million, reflecting a 6% increase YoY. The net profit margin slightly decreased to 17.1% [1][6]. - The gross profit margin narrowed to 34.9%, down 2.9 percentage points, attributed to increased competition in the third-party market and the exit from higher-margin non-owner value-added services [1][6]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 10-20% and net profit growth of 5-10% in the upcoming periods [1][6]. Operational Highlights - The Basic Property Management segment's revenue contribution increased to 37.9% in FY23 from 31.3% in FY22, with expectations to stabilize around 40% [1][6]. - The catering services business experienced significant growth, achieving a 44% YoY revenue increase in FY23 and securing three new contracts valued at RMB65 million in Q1 2024 [1][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5x for 2024E, while the target price is based on a P/E of 8x for 2024E [1][3]. - The report indicates a projected P/E of 4.6 for FY23, with a forecasted P/E of 4.8 for FY24 [2][12].

M N 28 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) Expand overseas capacity to mitigate risks Target Price HK$18.32 WuXi Biologics (Wuxi Bio) reported 2023 revenue of RMB17.03bn, up 11.6% (Previous TP HK$39.65) YoY, attributable net income of RMB3.40bn, down 23.1% YoY, and adjusted Up/Downside 33.1% attributable net income of RMB4.70bn, down 4.6% YoY. Both revenue and Current Price HK$13.76 adjusted attributable net income were in-line with our forec ...

M N 27 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Zhihu (ZH US) Prioritizing breakeven target Target Price US$1.8 Zhihu’s 4Q23 results were better-than-feared, with strong vocational training and (Previous TP US$2.0) narrowing loss. For FY24E, mgmt. emphasized more on margin improvement Up/Downside 153.5% with disciplined expenses, and restated its quarterly breakeven target by 4Q24E. Current Price US$0.71 With shrinking S&M investment, we expect prudent user trend and top ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Kelun-Biotech [2][4][17]. Core Insights - Kelun-Biotech recorded RMB1.54 billion in revenue for FY23, primarily from licensing and collaboration agreements with MSD, with a significant upfront payment of RMB1.21 billion received in March 2023 [2][11]. - The company expects to receive over US$100 million in payments from MSD in FY24, indicating strong future revenue potential [2]. - The net loss for FY23 decreased to RMB574 million from RMB616 million in FY22, showing improvement in financial performance [2][11]. - SKB264 is anticipated to unlock commercial value upon approval in China in the second half of 2024, with ongoing clinical trials expected to validate its global potential [2][3]. - The company is preparing for domestic commercialization by building a commercial team, expected to grow to approximately 500 employees by the end of 2024 [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 was RMB1.54 billion, a 91.6% increase year-over-year, while FY24 revenue is projected to decline by 40.4% to RMB918 million [3][11]. - R&D expenses increased by 21.9% year-over-year to RMB1.03 billion in FY23, reflecting the company's commitment to advancing its clinical trials [2][11]. - The company had a cash balance of RMB2.53 billion at the end of 2023, providing a solid financial foundation for ongoing operations [2][11]. Clinical Development - SKB264's NDA for 3L+ TNBC has been under review since December 2023, with approval expected in 2H24 [2]. - The company has initiated a Phase 3 trial for SKB264 in 1L TNBC treatment and plans to start pivotal trials in various indications, including NSCLC and HR+/HER2- BC [2][6]. - MSD is actively registering multiple global Phase 3 trials for SKB264, enhancing its development prospects [2][6]. Valuation - The report revises the DCF-based target price from HK$189.25 to HK$200.77, reflecting a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HK$160.60 [4][9].

M N 27 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Weichai Power (000338 CH) Key takeaways from post-results call Target Price RMB20.40 During the post-results call yesterday, Weichai expected the industry HDT (Previous TP RMB20.40) demand in 2024E will be ~900k units (-2% YoY). Of this, China demand is Up/Downside 23.6% expected to fall by 10% YoY to 600k units while exports are expected to grow Current Price RMB16.51 20% YoY to 300k units. Weichai expects the LNG price to ...

M N 27 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Weichai Power (000338 CH) Key takeaways from post-results call Target Price RMB20.40 During the post-results call yesterday, Weichai expected the industry HDT (Previous TP RMB20.40) demand in 2024E will be ~900k units (-2% YoY). Of this, China demand is Up/Downside 23.6% expected to fall by 10% YoY to 600k units while exports are expected to grow Current Price RMB16.51 20% YoY to 300k units. Weichai expects the LNG price to ...

M N 26 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Weichai Power (000338 CH) 4Q23 net profit +58% YoY; Payout increased to 50%; Higher earnings forecast on margin Target Price RMB20.40 Weichai’s net profit in 2023 surged 84% YoY to RMB9bn, which is in line with (Previous TP RMB17.80) the profit range of RMB8.58-9.32bn announced in Jan. In 4Q23, net profit grew Up/Downside 25.4% 58% YoY to RMB2.5bn. It’s worth noting that Weichai has declared a final Current Price RMB16.27 di ...

+M N 26 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) Resilient margin in 2H23 with positive outlook Target Price HK$8.39 Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$8.39 (we now assume a gradual improvement in SSS recovery rate onwards as the group is rolling out more new initiatives (Previous TP HK$7.05) this year). We are still cautious about catering sector, but JMJ’s numbers have Up/Downside 49.9% stabilized lately. A rebound in share price is possible given undem ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Weichai Power, with a revised target price of RMB20.40, up from RMB17.80, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of RMB16.27 [2][3]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's net profit for 2023 increased by 84% year-on-year to RMB9 billion, aligning with earlier profit forecasts [2]. - The company declared a final dividend of RMB0.293 per share, raising the payout ratio to 50%, up from 45% in 2022 [2]. - The positive outlook is supported by factors such as the replacement cycle, increased sales of gas trucks, and export growth, which are expected to drive sales growth in the heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 4Q23, Weichai's net profit rose 58% year-on-year to RMB2.5 billion, driven by a 20% increase in revenue to RMB53.6 billion and a gross margin expansion of 3.3 percentage points to 23.7%, the highest since 4Q18 [2][6]. - The engine segment saw a revenue increase of 55% year-on-year to RMB60.8 billion, with segment profit surging 1.7 times to RMB7.7 billion due to a 5.5 percentage point margin expansion [2][3]. - The automobiles and components segment turned profitable in the second half of 2023, recording a profit of RMB610 million compared to losses in previous periods [2]. - The forklift and supply chain solutions segment reported a tenfold increase in profit to RMB4.9 billion in 2023, reflecting a recovery [2][3]. - Agricultural machinery revenue decreased by 9% year-on-year to RMB16.2 billion, but the segment margin improved by 1 percentage point to 4.1%, resulting in a 23% increase in segment profit [2]. Earnings Forecast - The report revises the earnings forecast for 2024 and 2025 upwards by 19% and 20%, respectively, primarily due to higher margin assumptions across various segments [2][3]. - Revenue projections for 2024E and 2025E are set at RMB236.3 billion and RMB250.1 billion, respectively, with expected adjusted net profits of RMB12.1 billion and RMB13.1 billion [3][18]. Valuation - The SOTP-based target price for Weichai Power is set at HK$22/RMB20.4, reflecting a valuation methodology based on EV/EBITDA multiples [10]. - The report highlights that Weichai's core business is valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5, contributing significantly to the overall equity value [10].