Reversing from a loss in 2023 1H, but investors may demand more
西牛证券· 2024-04-26 07:02
Investment Rating - The report assigns a stock rating of NR (Not Rated) for CDOT (00334.HK) [27]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 57.3% to RMB 931.7 million in 2024 Q1, driven by strong sales of tablet display modules and other display modules, which offset a decline in smartphone module sales [2]. - The gross margin for CDOT in FY 2023 dropped to 6.5%, primarily due to a change in product mix, which may continue to affect profitability [41]. - The company has seen a recovery in sales volume, particularly in the second half of 2023, with non-laminated and laminated module sales volumes reaching 4.1 million and 38.7 million respectively [7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - CDOT reported RMB 2.6 billion in revenue for FY 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.4% and a significant drop of 55.1% in the first half of 2023 [7]. - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 13.1 million and an operating profit of RMB 19.0 million in FY 2023, reversing from a loss in the first half of 2023 [20]. Sales Performance - The sales volume of tablet display modules and other display modules in 2024 Q1 reached 0.7 million and 1.1 million, representing increases of 22.7 times and 87.8 times compared to 2023 Q1 [11]. - The ASP (Average Selling Price) of non-laminated and laminated modules increased to RMB 28.5 and RMB 70.4 in 2023 Q4, marking a rebound from previous lows [15]. Market Dynamics - The order book from a major smartphone manufacturer remained stable, contributing significantly to revenue stability in 2024 Q1 [36]. - The company’s strategy includes leveraging support from CSOT to customize panel sizes, enhancing its ability to meet customer demands and expand into the tablet market [40]. Future Outlook - The report indicates that while there has been operational improvement, low gross margins remain a concern, limiting the company's ability to withstand market fluctuations [42]. - The company is expected to see further contributions from the tablet and smart home device segments, potentially driving ASP increases in 2024 [17][19].
Strong adoption of GenAI solutions
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-26 06:02
| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | CMB International Global Markets Address : 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800 | Limited | | CMB International Global Markets subsidiary of China Merchants Bank) | Limited ("CMBIGM") i ...
Launch of the AI investment cycle
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-26 05:32
Meta reported 1Q24 results: total revenue grew by 27% YoY to US$36.5bn, in line with consensus estimate of US$36.2bn; net income was up 117% YoY to US$12.4bn, also in line with consensus estimate (US$12.2bn). For 2Q24, management guides total revenue to increase by 14-22% YoY to US$36.5- 39.0bn (vs. consensus estimate of US$38.3bn), with growth rate normalizing as the base effect wanes. Looking ahead, Meta expects to start a multi-year investment cycle to build full-scale AI capabilities and enhance monetiz ...
1Q24 was slow but end-demand is healthy
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-26 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Vesync with a target price of HK$ 6.79, based on a P/E of 11x for FY24E, reflecting a potential upside of 57% from the current price of HK$ 4.33 [2][5][15]. Core Insights - Despite slow sales growth in 1Q24, the end-demand remains healthy, supported by a strong sell-out growth and low inventory levels in the Amazon channel. The company expects orders growth to normalize in the upcoming quarters [2][8]. - The management has reiterated its FY24E guidance of over 20% sales growth and over 10% net profit margin, which aligns with the analyst's conservative positive outlook [2][8]. - The report highlights that Vesync's gross sales growth was only 1% in 1Q24, attributed to supply issues and reduced orders from Amazon, while non-Amazon channels saw a significant growth of 38% [2][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$ 585 million in FY23 to US$ 675 million in FY24, representing a year-over-year growth of 15.3% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from US$ 77.4 million in FY23 to US$ 91.4 million in FY24, with a net profit margin improvement from 13.2% to 13.5% [3][14]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to stabilize at 46.0% in FY24, slightly down from 46.9% in FY23, while the operating profit margin is expected to be around 15.3% [3][14]. Growth Outlook - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for sales and 16% for net profit from FY23 to FY26E, indicating robust growth potential [2][8]. - Specific brands under Vesync, such as Levoit and Cosori, are expected to achieve sales growth of 15% in FY24E, driven by new product launches and category expansions [8][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of Vesync at 7x FY24E P/E is considered attractive compared to its historical average of 12x, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [2][5][15]. - The report notes that the average inventory days for major retailers have decreased, indicating improved channel inventory health, which bodes well for future sales [8][10].
FY23 in-line with better-than-feared 1H24 earnings guidance; Solid outlook ahead
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-26 05:30
M N 26 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Luxshare (002475 CH) FY23 in-line with better-than-feared 1H24 earnings guidance; Solid outlook ahead Target Price RMB46.61 Luxshare posted FY23 revenue/NP growth of 8%/20% YoY, largely in-line with (Previous TP RMB46.96) pre-announcement of 20-25% YoY, while 1H24E earnings guidance of 20-25% Up/Downside 63.3% YoY (implying 2Q24E 18%-27% YoY) is above market expectations. We believe Current Price RMB28.54 the strong 1H24 out ...
1Q24 NBV beat; Life OPAT y/y turned positive
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-25 06:02
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a 51.2% upside from the current price of HK$34.40 [2][3]. Core Insights - The first-quarter results for Ping An show resilience in core lines, with Life VNB increasing by 20.7% YoY to RMB12.9 billion, surpassing market consensus and previous estimates [2]. - The growth in VNB is attributed to a significant rise in VNB margin, which increased by 6.5 percentage points YoY to 22.8%, despite sluggish sales in the 2024 jumpstart period [2]. - Group OPAT decreased by 3.0% YoY to RMB38.7 billion, but this is a significant improvement from a decline of 19.7% YoY by the end of 2023 [2]. - Life & Health OPAT turned positive with a growth of 2.2% YoY to RMB27.3 billion, contributing to a 0.3% YoY OPAT growth across the three core segments: Ping An Life & Health, P&C, and PAB [2]. - Asset management returned to profitability with a net profit of RMB910 million in 1Q24, compared to a loss of RMB20.7 billion by the end of 2023 [2]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - Life VNB rose by 20.7% YoY to RMB12.9 billion in 1Q24, driven by a VNB margin increase to 22.8% [2][16]. - The number of life insurance agents decreased by 4.0% YoY to 0.33 million, but the productivity per agent increased by 56.4% YoY [2][16]. Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance - P&C insurance revenue grew by 5.7% YoY to RMB80.6 billion, with a combined ratio (CoR) of 99.6%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase [2][16]. - Underwriting profit in P&C declined by 67.5% YoY to RMB323 million, attributed to increased claims from catastrophes [2][16]. Asset Management - The asset management segment reported a net profit of RMB910 million in 1Q24, a recovery from a significant loss in the previous year [2][16]. Financial Projections - FY24-26E EPS revised down to RMB6.42, RMB7.05, and RMB7.61, respectively, from previous estimates of RMB6.94, RMB7.87, and RMB8.62 [2][3]. - The stock is currently trading at FY24 0.47x P/EV and 0.71x P/B, with potential upside driven by improved market sentiment and rising investment yields [2][3].
Accelerating capacity expansion to address robust demand
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-25 03:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for New Oriental with a target price of US$102.50, revised from the previous target of US$104.50, indicating a potential upside of 33.0% from the current price of US$77.08 [2][3]. Core Insights - New Oriental's total net revenue for 3QFY24 increased by 60.1% year-over-year (YoY) to US$1,207 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of US$1,098 million by 10% [2]. - Non-GAAP net income rose by 9.8% YoY to US$105 million, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of US$132 million due to investments in East Buy and rapid capacity expansion affecting margin growth [2]. - The company expects total revenue for 4QFY24 to grow by 28-31% YoY, projecting revenue between US$1,102 million and US$1,127 million, compared to the consensus estimate of US$1,096 million [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is forecasted at US$4,293 million, with adjusted net profit expected to reach US$456.1 million [6]. - The revenue growth forecast for FY25E and FY26E has been increased by 8-10%, while earnings forecasts for the same periods have been trimmed by 3-6% due to the impact of capacity expansion on margins [2][6]. - The educational business segment showed strong momentum, with overseas test prep and study consulting revenue growing by 52.6% and 25.7% YoY, respectively, contributing approximately 21% to total revenue [2]. Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - New Oriental's capacity expansion accelerated, with the number of schools and learning centers increasing by 28% YoY to 911 as of the end of 3QFY24 [2]. - The company has raised its capacity expansion plan for FY24, now expecting a 30% YoY increase, up from the previous estimate of 20% [2]. - Investments in East Buy are aimed at enhancing private label product development and supply chain management, which is expected to drive customer base expansion and user engagement [2]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, attributing US$91.6 million to the educational and consulting business, US$6.8 million to East Buy, and US$4.2 million to the tourism business, reflecting their respective growth prospects and market positions [7][8].
1Q24 NP beat provides room for transformation
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-25 03:02
M N 25 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) 1Q24 NP beat provides room for transformation Target Price HK$14.00 Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 1Q24 net profit of RMB3.2bn beat investors’ prior (Previous TP HK$13.00) forecast, which has increased our confidence in its profitability in FY24E. We Up/Downside 24.8% raise our FY24E net profit forecast by 25% to RMB9.9bn. We believe Great Wall Current Price HK$11.22 still needs a high-volume NEV in th ...
4Q23 & 1Q24 earnings in line; Staying positive on overseas growth
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-25 03:00
25 Apr 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) 4Q23 & 1Q24 earnings in line; Staying positive on overseas growth Zhejiang Dingli (Dingli)'s net profit in 2023 grew 49% YoY to RMB1.87bn, in line with the pre-announced profit of RMB1.86bn in Jan. In 1Q24, the adjusted net profit (excluding fair value loss of RMB101mn) grew 27% YoY to RMB404mn, which is in line with our expectation. During the post results call, management revealed t ...
Healthy outlook after a beat in retail discounts
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-24 05:32
M N 24 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Ning (2331 HK) Healthy outlook after a beat in retail discounts Li Ning may not be our top pick in the sportswear sector. But thanks to potential Target Price HK$22.17 sequential acceleration in sales growth and decent margin improvement (better (Previous TP HK$24.86) discounts and operating leverage), we are still positive on Li Ning and maintain Up/Downside 19.9% BUY with TP of HK$ 22.17, based on 15x FY24E P/E. Current ...