Bernstein Energy & Power: Look no further for defensive growth - our 2026 Outlook, unwrapped Deepa Venkateswaran, ACA +44 20 7676 6990 deepa.venkateswaran@bernsteinsg.com Bartlomiej Kubicki +49 69 717 4418 bartlomiej.kubicki@bernsteinsg.com Jorge Alonso Suils +34 915 893 913 jorge.alonso@bernsteinsg.com Irene Himona, Ph.D. +44 20 7762 5353 irene.himona@bernsteinsg.com Bob Brackett, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8422 bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil N ...

Market Trends & Economic Data - Investors are preparing for more information on the US economy, with stocks, bonds, and the dollar wavering [3] - The week will bring economic data releases, including inflation and jobs reports, influencing future Fed policy [4] - The US Treasury market is debating the extent of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [12] - Delayed announcements of monthly employment and inflation figures due to the US government shutdown are creating a void [13] - There's a debate on whether the economy is transitioning from deleveraging to re-leveraging [40] M&A and Corporate Strategy - The pursuit of Warner Brothers Discovery by Netflix is ongoing, with concerns about job losses and theatrical releases [5] - Netflix co-CEOs are trying to reassure employees about the company's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, reiterating no business overlap and studio closures [59] - Global M&A activity has been strong, with volumes at $45 trillion, setting up for 2026 to potentially exceed the record year in 2021 [78] - A potential Netflix acquisition of Warner Brothers could be a $827 billion deal [60] - iRobot filed for bankruptcy, with its common stock to be wiped out under the proposed Chapter 11 plan, listing between $100 million and $500 million in assets and liabilities [118][120] Energy & Utilities - National Grid is spending billions of dollars to prepare New York's electric grid for a generational shift, including data centers [93] - National Grid serves over 4 million customers in New York, delivering natural gas and electricity [97] - Cumulative power needs from companies wanting to connect to the New York grid over the next five years are estimated at about 10 gigawatts, tripling in size in one year [99][100] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is down 13%, at $5674 a barrel [92] Cryptocurrency - MicroStrategy acquired almost $1 billion in Bitcoin for a second straight week, despite the cryptocurrency falling [124] - Bitcoin is down 23%, at $86,432 [10][92] - Bitcoin is down about 30% from an all-time high of just over $126,000 in early October [126] Financial Markets Performance - The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all in the red [8][55][56][91][115] - The Bloomberg Mag Seven index is holding onto a gain of 4/10 of 1% [8] - The S&P 500 index is down 1/10 of 1%, lower by six at 620 [9] - The NASDAQ composite index is down 3/10 of 1%, while the Dow Industrials are down 2/10 of 1% [9] - The ten-year Treasury yield is currently at 417%, with the two-year at 350% [9] - Gold is up 4/10 of 1%, at $4314 the ounce [10] - The Russell 2000 index is declining, down 6/10 of 1% [55] - Gold is up $13 the ounce, at $4312, up 3/10 of 1% [56]

Core Insights - National Grid is enhancing resilience against wildfire risks through a partnership with Rhizome, utilizing advanced AI technology to identify and prevent such risks across its electric transmission and distribution networks in Massachusetts, New York, and the UK [1][3]. Group 1: Partnership and Technology - The collaboration with Rhizome involves the deployment of the gridFIRM platform, which quantifies long-term wildfire risks related to utility assets, enabling cost-effective mitigation strategies [2][8]. - The partnership aligns with National Grid's strategic focus on risk management, system resilience, and maintaining bill affordability for customers [3][4]. Group 2: Wildfire Risk Context - Wildfire risk is increasingly affecting the Northeast, with New York and Massachusetts experiencing 2,626 wildfires in 2024, more than double the previous year's total [3]. - The growing geographic diversity of wildfire risks necessitates robust resilience planning and preparedness for National Grid and utility stakeholders [3]. Group 3: Investment in Innovation - National Grid is committed to investing in innovative technologies, having announced a $100 million investment in AI technologies and startups, building on a previous investment of $150 million [5]. - The company aims to transform its networks to provide more reliable and resilient energy solutions, aligning with state climate goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies and market coverage of a senior analyst with over 10 years of experience in European and North American markets [1] Group 1: Analyst Profile - The analyst is a senior analyst and private portfolio manager with extensive experience in generating value ideas in various markets [1] - The analyst contributes to investing groups such as iREIT®+HOYA Capital and Wide Moat Research LLC, focusing on reasonably valued stock ideas [1] Group 2: Market Coverage - The analyst covers a wide range of markets including Scandinavia, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Eastern Europe [1] - The focus is on identifying investment opportunities in both European and North American markets [1]

Key Takeaways from the 6th Annual Carbonomics Conference Industry Overview - The conference focused on the energy sector, particularly the transition towards low-carbon energy solutions and the increasing demand for energy driven by AI and data centers [2][5][43]. Core Themes and Insights 1. **Accelerating Energy Demand** - The narrative around energy is shifting from a pure transition to an "All-of-the-Above" approach, recognizing that renewables alone are insufficient to meet future energy needs. Nuclear, gas, and oil are increasingly viewed as complementary sources [5][43]. - Global data center power demand is expected to more than double by 2030, with the U.S. utilities team projecting a 2.6% CAGR in power demand through 2030 [43][49]. 2. **Fuel Cell Technology** - Fuel cells are emerging as a key technology for low-carbon, high-reliability digital infrastructure, particularly for data centers. It is estimated that 25%-50% of total behind-the-meter power generation could be supplied by fuel cells, requiring 8-20 GW of capacity by 2030 [5][74][75]. 3. **Energy Security and Affordability** - Energy security and affordability are major global concerns. The CEOs of major energy companies discussed LNG supply growth as a potential resolution to the European energy crisis [7][43]. 4. **Rise of Clean Power** - Utilities are entering a new era driven by accelerating power demand and renewable innovation. Key players discussed profitable growth opportunities in low-carbon power [7][43]. 5. **Policy Support** - Policy frameworks, such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), are crucial in shaping investment flows and technology adoption in clean energy [7][43]. 6. **Bioenergy Potential** - Bioenergy is the largest source of renewable energy globally, with potential applications in heating, road transport, and aviation [7][43]. 7. **Transformation of Big Oils** - Major oil companies are re-imagining their business models to align with global warming containment goals, transitioning into broader, lower-carbon energy companies [7][43]. 8. **Carbon Sequestration Technologies** - Carbon sequestration is vital for achieving net-zero emissions cost-effectively, with discussions involving leading companies in carbon capture [7][43]. 9. **Clean Hydrogen** - Clean hydrogen is recognized as a key technology for decarbonization, with discussions on its value chain involving industry leaders [7][43]. 10. **Decarbonizing Materials and Buildings** - The need for new building materials and rethinking cement production processes is emphasized for decarbonizing the construction sector [7][43]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the need for significant investments in the energy sector, with estimates suggesting that Europe may require up to €3 trillion in investment to avert a potential power crisis over the next decade [71][72]. - The U.S. utilities team expects that 82 GW of new generation capacity will be needed to support data center demand growth, translating to approximately $103 billion in capital expenditure through 2030 [50][58]. Conclusion The 6th Annual Carbonomics Conference underscored the critical intersection of energy demand, technological innovation, and policy support in the transition to a low-carbon future, with a strong emphasis on the role of data centers and emerging technologies like fuel cells and clean hydrogen in shaping the energy landscape.

Group 1 - The FTSE 100 Index remains stable near its all-time high following the Bank of England's interest rate decision [1] - Significant companies such as BT, National Grid, and AstraZeneca have released their financial results [1] - The FTSE 100 Index has increased by 29% from its lowest point in April [1]

Why utilities like National Grid, Duke Energy and AES are investing in AI: https://t.co/kkFIgWEBH2 ...

Financial Performance - National Grid plc reported a statutory operating profit of £1,526 million for the six months ended 30 September 2025, a 17% increase from £1,309 million in the previous year[10]. - Underlying operating profit increased by 13% to £2,292 million, driven by strong performance across regulated businesses[37]. - Statutory earnings for the first half of 2025 were £617 million, an 8% increase from the previous year, primarily due to a £159 million favorable swing in timing[89]. - Profit for the period increased to £647 million for the six months ended 30 September 2025, compared to £618 million in the same period last year, reflecting a growth of 4.7%[128]. - Total profit for the period attributable to equity shareholders was £617 million, compared to £647 million in the previous year, a decrease of 4.6%[123][124]. - Operating profit from continuing operations rose to £1,526 million, up from £1,309 million, representing an increase of 16.6%[132]. - Basic earnings per share for continuing operations was 12.6 pence, unchanged from the previous year[123][124]. - Total comprehensive income for the period was £685 million, down from £719 million, indicating a decrease of 4.7% year-over-year[128]. Capital Investment - Capital investment reached a record £5,052 million, up 12% from £4,494 million in the prior year[29]. - The company is on track to deliver over £11 billion in capital investment for the full year, reflecting progress on ASTI projects in the UK and major transmission projects in the US[41]. - Capital investment for continuing operations increased by £558 million to £5,052 million, a 12% increase year-over-year[39]. - The company expects to invest around £60 billion across its energy networks and adjacent businesses over the five-year period to March 2029, with Group assets trending towards £100 billion by March 2029[59]. - In the UK, the company anticipates approximately £23 billion of investment in UK Electricity Transmission for asset health and system reinforcement, and around £8 billion in UK Electricity Distribution for infrastructure improvements[60]. - In the US, the company plans to invest around £17 billion in New York and £11 billion in New England over the five years to 2028/29, focusing on renewable connections and transmission upgrades[61]. Dividends - The interim dividend per share was increased to 16.35p, representing a 3% rise from 15.84p in the previous year[10]. - The Board approved an interim dividend of 16.35p per ordinary share, expected to be paid on 13 January 2026[108]. - The company paid dividends totaling £894 million during the period, an increase from £811 million in the previous year, reflecting a growth of 10.2%[134]. - The Directors proposed an interim dividend of 16.35 pence per share for the year ending 31 March 2026, distributing approximately £811 million of shareholders' equity[200]. - A final dividend for the year ended 31 March 2025 was paid at 30.88 pence per share, totaling £894 million in cash dividends[200]. Leadership Transition - Zoë Yujnovich will succeed John Pettigrew as CEO on 17 November 2025, marking a leadership transition[22]. Debt and Financial Outlook - Net debt rose to £41.8 billion, £0.5 billion higher than the previous period, primarily due to capital investment[40]. - The company expects net debt to increase by around £1.5 billion, reaching approximately £42.9 billion by March 2026, with regulatory gearing expected to be around 60%[82]. - The company expects underlying EPS to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6-8% from the 2024/25 baseline of 73.3p[26]. Operational Highlights - The company achieved £100 million in cumulative synergies from the acquisition of UK Electricity Distribution, six months ahead of schedule[18]. - Installed over 360,000 advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meters in New York and around 220,000 in New England during the half-year[43]. - Progressed construction on all six Wave 1 ASTI projects in the UK Electricity Transmission business, including energizing the Hurst-Crayford 275 kV circuit[43]. - The company aims to continue its strategic investments in infrastructure to support future growth and energy transition initiatives[119]. - National Grid is focused on addressing climate-related risks and enhancing its operational resilience against adverse weather conditions and regulatory changes[120]. Revenue and Sales - Revenue for the six months ended September 30, 2025, was £7,065 million, a decrease of 11.2% compared to £7,961 million in the same period of 2024[123]. - UK Electricity Transmission segment reported sales of £1,406 million, up from £1,182 million in 2024, reflecting a 19.0% increase[151]. - New York segment generated revenue of £2,667 million, an increase of 14.0% compared to £2,341 million in 2024[151]. - The Group's US revenue was £3,877 million, with significant contributions from System Operator and Distribution segments[166]. Asset Management - Total non-current assets increased to £94,833 million as of 30 September 2025, up from £92,410 million, reflecting a growth of 2.6%[130]. - Current assets decreased to £8,927 million from £14,332 million, a decline of 37.5%[130]. - Total liabilities decreased to £66,542 million from £68,916 million, a reduction of 3.5%[131]. - The company had undrawn committed facilities available amounting to £7.7 billion as of 30 September 2025, indicating strong liquidity[141].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 13% increase in underlying operating profit to GBP 2.3 billion, driven by higher regulatory revenues in both U.K. and U.S. electricity transmission businesses [13][27] - Underlying earnings per share rose by 6% to GBP 29.8, reflecting strong operational performance despite higher finance costs [14][28] - Capital investment reached a record GBP 5.1 billion, up 12% year-on-year at constant currency [14][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.K. electricity distribution saw underlying operating profit decrease by GBP 22 million to GBP 551 million due to lower revenues from Ofgem's real price effects mechanism [29] - U.K. electricity transmission reported an underlying operating profit increase of GBP 122 million to GBP 846 million, supported by higher allowed revenues [30] - In the U.S., New York's underlying operating profit increased by GBP 167 million to GBP 443 million, driven by higher net revenue from network upgrades [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong visibility in its investment program, with a projected investment growth of around 10% per annum and underlying earnings per share growth of 6%-8% [7][8] - The U.S. regulatory environment remains supportive, with approximately 75% of the five-year investment plan approved within rate cases [10] - In New England, capital investment increased by 23% to GBP 1 billion, reflecting increased spending on asset condition and system capacity [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a GBP 60 billion capital investment plan aimed at future-proofing networks to meet rising energy demand [4][5] - There is a commitment to operational excellence and capital discipline, with an emphasis on delivering cleaner energy and supporting economic growth [5][7] - The company is actively engaging with regulators and stakeholders to ensure the delivery of infrastructure projects and to adapt to evolving energy policies [11][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver a compelling investment proposition, citing strong progress in securing supply chains for major projects [8][9] - The company is well-prepared for winter, with electricity margins forecasted at around 10%, the highest since 2019 [15] - Management highlighted the importance of regulatory support and policy developments in facilitating future investments [10][11] Other Important Information - The company has achieved over GBP 100 million in synergy savings six months ahead of target following the U.K. electricity distribution acquisition in 2021 [16] - The Lost-Time Injury Frequency Rate was reported at 0.09, indicating a strong focus on safety across operations [15] - The company is working on developing AI infrastructure in the U.K., which is expected to drive significant investment in energy infrastructure [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: T3 expectations and dialogue with Ofgem - Management indicated ongoing discussions with Ofgem regarding the overall investable framework and the workability of the regulatory framework, emphasizing the need for a higher base return [44][46][47] Question: Net debt guidance and working capital effects - Management clarified that the net debt guidance has improved due to transaction proceeds and working capital effects, with a modest increase expected [44][49][50] Question: U.K. electricity distribution operational performance - Management confirmed that operational performance is on track to meet the 50 basis points guide for the year, with expectations to approach 100 basis points by the end of the price control period [52][53][54] Question: Sufficiency of Ofgem allowances for maintenance - Management affirmed that past allowances have been sufficient to maintain a reliable network, with ongoing discussions for future price controls [57][58][59] Question: U.K. infrastructure investment needs - Management emphasized the importance of stable fiscal and regulatory frameworks and streamlined planning processes to facilitate infrastructure investment across the U.K. [59][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an underlying operating profit of GBP 2.3 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, driven by higher regulatory revenues in both the U.K. and U.S. electricity transmission businesses [12][25] - Underlying earnings per share rose by 6% to GBP 29.8, reflecting strong operating performance despite higher finance costs [12][25] - Cash generated from continuing operations increased by 35% to GBP 3.6 billion, attributed to improved profitability and favorable working capital movements [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In U.K. electricity distribution, underlying operating profit decreased by GBP 22 million to GBP 551 million due to lower revenues from Ofgem's real price effects [26][28] - U.K. electricity transmission saw an underlying operating profit increase of GBP 122 million to GBP 846 million, supported by higher allowed revenues [28] - In the U.S., New York's underlying operating profit increased by GBP 167 million to GBP 443 million, driven by higher net revenue from network upgrades [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capital investment in the first half reached GBP 5.1 billion, a record level and up 12% year-on-year [12][26] - U.K. electricity transmission capital investment increased by 31% to GBP 1.7 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in substations and ASTI projects [28][17] - In New England, capital investment rose by 23% to GBP 1 billion, driven by asset condition improvements and smart meter installations [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a GBP 60 billion capital investment plan aimed at future-proofing networks and meeting growing energy demand [3][6] - There is a commitment to operational excellence and capital discipline, with a target of 10% annual investment growth and 6%-8% underlying earnings per share growth [6][12] - The company is actively engaging with regulators and policymakers to support infrastructure development and accelerate economic growth [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver a compelling investment proposition, supported by strong regulatory backing and policy developments [6][9] - The company is well-prepared for winter, with electricity margins forecasted at around 10%, the highest since 2019 [14] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining momentum and focusing on performance amidst challenges and opportunities in the energy sector [4][5] Other Important Information - The interim dividend declared is GBP 16.35 per share, representing 35% of the previous year's full-year dividend [12][26] - The company has achieved over GBP 100 million in synergy savings six months ahead of target following the U.K. electricity distribution acquisition in 2021 [15][28] - The transition to a more balanced geographical footprint, with over three-quarters of operations now in electricity, reflects a successful portfolio repositioning [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: T3 expectations and dialogue with Ofgem - Management indicated ongoing discussions with Ofgem regarding the investment framework and the need for a higher base return, supported by recent regulatory developments [41][43][44] Question: Net debt guidance and working capital effects - The company provided clarity on net debt guidance, indicating a modest increase due to transaction proceeds and working capital improvements [41][46][47] Question: U.K. electricity distribution operational performance - Management confirmed that operational performance is on track for the year, with expectations to reach closer to 100 basis points by the end of the ED2 period [49][50][51] Question: Sufficiency of allowances for maintenance - Management affirmed that past allowances have been sufficient to maintain network reliability, with a focus on ensuring future regulatory frameworks support necessary capital expenditures [54][55][56] Question: Infrastructure investment and planning regime - Management emphasized the need for stable fiscal and regulatory frameworks to facilitate efficient infrastructure investment across the U.K. [56][57] Question: Update on network windfalls and TOTEX uncertainty - Management clarified that there have been no windfall profits and discussed the expected clarity on TOTEX numbers as new connection offers are issued [59][63][64]