Why don't we start off with yesterday. Uh, you know, there was reports from a White House source that the president was very close to firing J. Pal.The president then spoke during a news conference saying that's highly unlikely. Um, just that drama and we saw the action in the bond market, the equity market and with the dollar. Does that drama change the view of US markets right now.Look, it it it matters. Um, but uh I'm not sure the thing that matters most. um when you're looking at what's really driving m ...

for more on the markets and how investors uh may want to position themselves in the second half of the year. We are joined now by Charmine Mosa Mosavar. I always I always butcher your name.It kills me. It kills me. Uh kills me.It I know it's it's it's horrible. Chief investment officer uh for Goldman Sachs Wealth Management. Good morning to you. Good morning.We've got I'm happy to go by my first name. That's okay, too. You can just say we've known each other a long time and every time I You know what it is. ...

Company Overview - Nebius Group has experienced a significant stock increase of 92% as of July 16, 2025, driven by a large addressable market and positive sentiment from Wall Street [1] - The company specializes in providing artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure, allowing customers to rent powerful GPUs for various AI tasks [2] Growth Potential - Nebius has shown rapid growth, with its revenue in Q1 2025 increasing nearly fivefold year-over-year to $55.3 million [7] - The annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) surged by 684% in Q1 to $249 million, with management projecting an ARR of $750 million to $1 billion by the end of 2025 [8] - The company has expanded its data center locations from one to five in just three quarters and is exploring new sites globally [8] Financial Health - Nebius boasts a strong balance sheet with over $1.4 billion in cash and only $187 million in debt, enabling further expansion of data center capacity [8] - The company forecasts revenue between $500 million and $700 million for 2025, a substantial increase from last year's revenue of $117 million [8] Market Opportunity - The cloud AI infrastructure market presents a $400 billion opportunity, indicating significant growth potential for Nebius [9] Analyst Sentiment - Goldman Sachs rates Nebius as a buy, with a 12-month price target of $68, suggesting approximately 30% upside from current levels [11][12] - Despite a high sales multiple of 68 times, the company's growth trajectory justifies its valuation, with analysts considering it undervalued based on future growth potential [13] Investment Appeal - Nebius is positioned as an attractive option for growth-oriented investors, with expectations of continued stock market upside [15]

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market reacted negatively to rumors of President Trump firing Federal Reserve chief Pal, with longer-term interest rates increasing from 497% to 507% in an hour, and the S&P 500 decreasing from 6,254 to 6,201 [3][4] - The market rallied when the President denied the rumors, indicating that the stock and bond markets do not want Pal ousted [3][5] - The market is questioning whether Trump is wrong about firing Pal, as stocks are supposed to benefit from lower interest rates, but didn't soar when the rumor of Pal's firing surfaced [8] - The consumer price index showed signs of inflation from the President's tariffs, with higher prices for clothing, furniture, cleaning products, food away from home, meats, poultry, coffee, gasoline, and even soft drinks [10][11] - The Fed is waiting to see the full impact of tariffs before cutting rates, as the economy is not currently in a slowdown, and employment is at 41% [14][15] Big Banks Earnings Analysis - The big banks' year-to-date gains ranged from 7% for Bank of America to nearly 25% for Goldman Sachs, setting a high bar for earnings season [32] - JP Morgan raised its full-year net interest income forecast by $1 billion, but also raised its expense guidance by $500 million [34][35] - Wells Fargo cut its full-year forecast for net interest income, causing the stock to drop more than 5% [38][39] - Citigroup reported a big top and bottom line beat, with net interest income more than $1 billion above the consensus estimate, and the stock jumped 37% [42] - Bank of America managed a bottom line beat, but missed on the top line due to a nasty net interest income miss [45] - Goldman Sachs had the best report of the big banks, with investment banking up 26% year-over-year, equities trading up 36%, and M&A advisory revenue up 71% year-over-year [48][49] - Morgan Stanley reported healthy top and bottom line beats, with wealth and investment management having $82 trillion in combined total client assets [49] Cheesecake Factory Analysis - Cheesecake Factory's stock is up over 31% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 65% gain over the same period [53] - The company has 350 locations across the US and Canada, including 215 flagship Cheesecake Factory restaurants [54] - The diverse menu eliminates the "no vote" when deciding where to go out to eat, and the wide variety of price points offers value for everyone [57] - Cheesecake Factory's annualized unit volume is $125 million, an obscenely large number for the restaurant industry [58] - The company has been named one of Fortune Magazine's 100 best places to work for the 12th consecutive year [60] - Recent operational performance and notable results were driven by the company's talented team and ongoing focus on staffing and retention [62] - The company delivered impressive unit level margins of 166% in its most recent quarter, while Wall Street was only looking for 158% [66] - The company is planning to open 25 new locations this year across all their brands, with North Italia's unified at $775 million and Flower Child's at $46 million [67][68] First Horizon Analysis - First Horizon delivered a strong enough quarter to make the stock rally, with a small revenue beat plus a nice 3 cent earnings beat off a 42 cent basis [78][79] - The customer has become very encouraged and confident over the course of the last 90 days, with momentum building across the quarter [81] - The company's CFO said that the high rates has really stifled mortgage originations, but the team has done a really nice job of consolidating market share [86] - Lower rates would actually accelerate growth in the economy, and would have a stimulative effect in the near term [90][91] - There's a real opportunity in the middle market space, and there's a very good place for First Horizon in this space [93][94] Investment Strategy - When a stock starts to go lower, it will often keep going lower until all the people who don't know anything are done selling, and you get a terrific price from their ignorance [113] - If you own a stock and you see it go down, first check the conference call transcript, then put it through a chatbot and ask if anything went wrong that you might have missed [115][116] - If it checks out, then the answer is you need to do some buying on weakness, because the weakness won't last for long [116]

Core Insights - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. reported Q2 2025 net revenues of $14.6 billion, EPS of $10.91, and ROE of 12.8% [1] - The board approved a 33% dividend increase to $4 per share, with assets under supervision reaching a record $3.3 trillion [1][7] - Regulatory developments have enhanced capital flexibility and strategic execution across key segments [1] Capital Deployment and Flexibility - The firm's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 14.5%, with a focus on maintaining a 50–100 basis point buffer above required levels [3] - In Q2 2025, $4 billion was returned to shareholders, including $3 billion in share repurchases, emphasizing ongoing capital return priorities [3][4] - Management sees opportunities for capital deployment, particularly in M&A and financing, while also committing to sustainable growth and increasing dividends [4] Investment Banking Performance - Advisory revenues increased by 71% year over year to $1.2 billion, with M&A volumes up 30% year to date, exceeding the five-year average [5] - The advisory backlog has grown for five consecutive quarters, with the firm maintaining top-three rankings with 125 of its top 150 clients globally [6] - Goldman Sachs remains number one in M&A lead tables, with a lead of approximately $85 billion in announced volume and $145 billion in completed volumes over the closest peer [6] Technological Advancements - Assets under supervision reached a record $3.3 trillion, driven by $115 billion in market appreciation and $17 billion in long-term net inflows [7] - The firm launched an internal GS AI assistant and partnered with Cognition Labs to pilot generative AI agents aimed at enhancing operational efficiency [9] - AI adoption is expected to reduce costs, accelerate innovation, and significantly enhance productivity across revenue and operational processes [9] Future Outlook - Management anticipates a meaningful ramp-up in management and incentive fees in 2026 and 2027, targeting sustained mid-teens ROE in the medium term [10] - No new explicit earnings or revenue targets were issued, but guidance for a 22% full-year tax rate and further share repurchases under a $40 billion program was reiterated [10] - Near-term capital deployment and inorganic growth will be selective, focusing on core franchise scaling and advocating for transparent capital regulation [11]

Core Insights - David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, has faced multiple challenges since taking over, including leadership questions and a downturn in dealmaking post-COVID, but remains focused on creating a more efficient bank that delivers returns for investors [1][2] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs reported strong results, with a 71% increase in M&A advisory revenue year-over-year, totaling $1.17 billion, despite an overall slump in deal volumes [2][5] - The bank's overall investment banking fees rose by 26% compared to the previous year [5] - The bank achieved its best trading results ever, with equities revenues reaching $4.3 billion (up 36% year-over-year) and fixed income, currencies, and commodities revenue at nearly $3.5 billion (up 9% year-over-year) [17][18] Strategic Focus - Solomon emphasized the importance of efficiency, with plans to eliminate duplicative roles and relocate staff to lower-cost centers [7] - The introduction of an AI tool named Devin aims to enhance operational efficiency and improve client experience [12][13] Regulatory Environment - Solomon expressed optimism regarding the regulatory landscape under the Trump administration, suggesting that looser oversight is positively impacting the firm's dealmaking prospects [14][15] - He noted a growing confidence among CEOs regarding industry consolidation, which is driving engagement across various sectors [15] Market Conditions - Despite ongoing uncertainty in certain industries, Goldman Sachs is positioned to benefit from market volatility, as clients seek guidance during turbulent times [16][18]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs Group reported Q2 2025 results with GAAP revenue of $14.58 billion and diluted EPS of $10.91, both exceeding analyst expectations [1][2] - Year-over-year, total net revenues increased by 15% and EPS rose by 26.6% [1][2] - The firm raised its quarterly dividend to $4.00 per share, reflecting strong capital returns [1] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 GAAP revenue was $14.58 billion, surpassing the estimate of $13.51 billion, and up from $12.73 billion in Q2 2024, marking a 14.6% increase [2] - GAAP EPS reached $10.91, exceeding the forecast of $9.65 and up from $8.62 in Q2 2024, a 26.6% increase [2] - Net earnings for Q2 2025 were $3.72 billion, a 22.4% increase from $3.04 billion in Q2 2024 [2] Business Segments Overview - The Global Banking & Markets segment saw net revenues rise 24% year-over-year to $10.12 billion, with advisory revenue increasing by 71% to $1.17 billion [5] - Equity underwriting revenue remained flat at $428 million, while debt underwriting declined by 5% to $589 million [5] - FICC trading generated $3.47 billion in net revenues, up 9% year-over-year but down 21% from the previous quarter [6] Asset & Wealth Management - Net revenues in Asset & Wealth Management were $3.78 billion, down 3% from the prior year, primarily due to a 72% decline in debt investment returns [7] - Management and other fees rose 11% to $2.81 billion, and private banking and lending revenue increased by 12% to $789 million [7] - Assets Under Supervision reached a record $3.29 trillion, up 12% compared to Q2 2024 [7] Operating Expenses and Capital Management - Operating expenses rose 8% year-over-year to $9.24 billion, driven by higher compensation and benefits [10] - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio was 14.5%, slightly lower than the previous year but above regulatory requirements [11] - The firm repurchased 5.3 million shares for $3.0 billion, with total capital return to shareholders amounting to $3.96 billion [11] Future Outlook - Management noted an increase in the investment banking backlog, indicating solid momentum for advisory and underwriting businesses [13] - No specific financial guidance was provided for the next quarter or fiscal 2025 [13]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS reported a solid second quarter for 2025, with results surpassing analyst estimates. The firm demonstrated strong performance across key segments, including significant contributions from its trading and investment banking operations. This quarter’s results also saw the company increase its shareholder returns.JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein reviewed Goldman Sachs Group Inc.‘s GS second-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a solid earnings beat and strong performance across key s ...

Core Insights - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) reported adjusted earnings per share of $10.91 for Q2 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.43 and up from $8.62 in the same quarter last year [1][9] Financial Performance - Net revenues increased by 15% year over year to $14.6 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.1% [4] - Net earnings on a GAAP basis rose 22% from the prior-year quarter to $3.7 billion [3] - The Global Banking & Markets division generated revenues of $10.1 billion, a 24% increase year over year, driven by strong performance in Equities and Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities (FICC) trading [6][9] Segment Performance - Equities revenues surged by 36% year over year to $4.3 billion, while FICC revenues rose by 9% to $3.5 billion [2] - Investment Banking fees increased by 26% year over year to $2.2 billion, supported by strong advisory revenues in the Americas and EMEA [2] - The Asset & Wealth Management division saw revenues decline by 3% year over year to $3.8 billion, attributed to lower net revenues in equity and debt investments [5] Expenses and Capital Management - Total operating expenses rose by 8% year over year to $9.2 billion, with provisions for credit losses increasing by 36% to $384 million [4] - The standardized Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio decreased to 14.5% from 14.8% year over year, and the supplementary leverage ratio fell to 5.3% from 5.4% [7] Capital Distribution - GS returned $3.96 billion to common shareholders in the reported quarter, including $3 billion in share repurchases and $957 million in dividends [8] - The quarterly dividend was raised by 33.3% to $4.00 per share following the successful completion of the 2025 Fed stress test [10]

I mean speaking of rates, you've been for last year or so at least higher for longer camp and Fed for the better part of the year has been on hold. So that's been right. What do you think happens next. Well, you know, the trajectory here, you know, you're asking what happens next.You're talking about in 2025. You think we'll get a few cuts. I I think there's I think there's a reasonable chance we get a cut or two.Um but not certain. And you know I think the market is absorbing the trade policy but on the ca ...