Key TakeawaysForex Markets Show Divergence: The NZD/USD reached a two-week low, while EUR/USD extended losses below 1.1750 due to US Dollar strength and Eurozone political concerns. Conversely, GBP/USD posted modest gains above 1.3450 despite worries over the UK's fiscal health.Asian Equities Mixed: Indonesia's stock benchmark, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), saw a 0.4% gain at open, following earlier rate cuts that propelled it to a record high, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) declined by 1% ami ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Banks Equities Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the performance and outlook of the Chinese banking sector, particularly state-owned banks versus joint-stock banks in the first half of 2025 (1H25) and implications for the second half of 2025 (2H25) [2][9]. Core Insights 1. **Performance of State-Owned Banks**: - State-owned banks outperformed joint-stock banks in loan growth during 1H25, with faster growth partly driven by discounted bills. They are optimistic about retail loan growth in 2H25, supported by new interest subsidies [2][9]. - Concerns regarding retail asset quality are expected to impact joint-stock banks more significantly than state-owned banks [2]. 2. **Wealth Management Growth**: - Retail Assets Under Management (AUM) growth in banks like CMB exceeded retail deposit growth in 1H25, indicating a rising demand for wealth management solutions. There is also an increasing interest in equity and hybrid mutual funds [3][9]. - CMB is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its strong wealth management franchise [3]. 3. **Bank Card Fees Decline**: - Bank card fees experienced a year-on-year decline in 1H25, with state-owned banks generally performing better than joint-stock banks. However, payment and lending activities on internet platforms improved, with Tencent reporting a re-acceleration in payment revenue growth [4][9]. - The shift from traditional debit/credit card payments to third-party platforms poses a risk for banks [4]. 4. **Risk Appetite Among Financial Institutions**: - Post 1H25, banks and insurers exhibited a risk-on sentiment, with corporate bond portfolios growing by 13.7% year-to-date as of July 2025, outpacing government or financial bonds [5][9]. - Insurers showed increased risk appetite through rapid growth in equity portfolios, supported by regulatory backing [5]. Investment Recommendations - Preferred stocks among mainland China banks include: - CCB-H (939 HK, HKD7.88) and CMB-H/A (3968 HK / 600036 CH, HKD48.18/RMB42.54) due to their strong capital positions and prudent risk management [6][9]. - Among Hong Kong financials, BOCHK (2388 HK, HKD38.68) and HKEX (388 HK, HKD448.40) are favored due to strong Southbound inflows and vibrant capital market activity [6][9]. Financial Performance Highlights - The report includes a detailed half-yearly comparison of key financial metrics for major banks, showing trends in net interest income, net fees & commissions, and operating income [11]. - Notable figures include: - Net interest income for major banks increased significantly, with CCB reporting RMB 313,576 million in 1H25 [11]. - Operating profit and attributable profit figures also reflect positive growth trends across various banks [11]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving landscape of payment systems and the potential impact on traditional banking revenue streams [4]. - The overall sentiment in the banking sector appears cautiously optimistic, with a focus on wealth management and risk appetite as key drivers for future growth [5][9].

Core Insights - The latest xbench Leaderboard has been released, showcasing updates from six models that have entered the top 10, including GPT-5-high and Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507, with scores improving by 3-5 points [1][9][10] - The dual-track evaluation system continues to track advancements in AGI, with a new question bank for the xbench-DeepSearch set expected to be released soon [1][2] Model Performance Summary - GPT-5-high from OpenAI shows a significant average score increase from 60.8 to 64.4, maintaining a stable BoN (N=5) score [9][12] - Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507 has improved its average score from 45.4 to 55, with BoN scores rising from 66 to 77, indicating substantial enhancements [9][35] - Claude Opus 4.1-Extended Thinking has increased its average score from 46.6 to 53.2, with a slight BoN increase from 69 to 72 [9] - Kimi K2 0905 achieved an average score of 51.6, demonstrating a balance between model capability and response speed [9][28] - GLM-4.5 from ZHIPU scored 48.8 with a BoN of 74, while Hunyuan-T1-20250711 scored 44.4 with a BoN of 63 [9] - Grok-4 has shown a remarkable improvement, achieving a score of 65, marking it as a state-of-the-art model [9][10] Evaluation Insights - The distribution of model scores indicates a narrowing gap among the top performers, with the top five models scoring between 76-78 [10] - The overall performance of models suggests that advancements in model capabilities are reaching a plateau, with smaller incremental improvements noted across most models [10][12] - The xbench evaluation mechanism continues to provide real-time updates on model performance, with future rankings expected [2][8]

Core Insights - The Chinese government has directed domestic technology companies to avoid purchasing Nvidia chips and instead utilize local technology [1] - Nvidia is significantly impacted by the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, leading to substantial financial losses and operational challenges [3][4] - The AI market in China represents a $50 billion opportunity for Nvidia, growing at 50% annually, but recent political tensions threaten this potential [5] Group 1: Trade War Impact - Nvidia experienced a $4.5 billion write-down in Q1 due to extended export restrictions on its H20 GPUs, which were tailored for Chinese companies [3] - President Trump’s export controls have created uncertainty, with Nvidia's CEO asserting that these restrictions could hinder U.S. technology leadership [4] - The arrangement allowing Nvidia to sell H20 GPUs in China, with a 15% revenue share to the government, raises questions about the motivations behind national security claims [4] Group 2: Recent Developments - Following comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the Chinese government instructed companies to cease purchasing H20 GPUs due to national security concerns [6] - Nvidia has halted production of the H20 chip in response to the Chinese government's directive [6] - The Chinese government has accused Nvidia of violating antimonopoly laws related to its acquisition of Mellanox, further complicating its market position in China [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Major Chinese companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance are increasingly relying on domestic chips instead of Nvidia hardware, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior [8] - Analysts estimate Nvidia's revenue from China could have reached $56 billion next year, but current political tensions make this outcome unlikely [9] - The likelihood of Nvidia generating any revenue from China next year is now in serious doubt due to the deteriorating relationship between the two countries [9]

Core Thesis - Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) presents a compelling investment case despite a modest 20x PE valuation and 5% free cash flow yield, indicating a mature and fundamentally sound business rather than a "hidden gem" [2] - The stock has underperformed this year, down 8% YTD, compared to peers like Tencent, which is up 24%, primarily due to investor concerns over margin pressure from ongoing investments in Asia and Europe [2] Growth Potential - TCOM is a dominant brand in China, well-positioned in an oversupplied hotel market, with high-quality products and services, and resilient post-COVID fundamentals [2] - The underpenetrated travel market in China, where hundreds of millions have yet to fly, offers significant long-term growth upside [2] International Expansion - TCOM's international expansion leverages proprietary Chinese app and algorithm technology, mobilizing 700 million Chinese MAUs to attract partnerships from hotels and transport providers abroad, providing a competitive edge over peers like Meituan [3] - Key catalysts expected in the second half of 2025 include better-than-anticipated margin performance, increased capital returns following the MMYT stake sale, dividends, and potential buybacks [3] Financial Metrics - Revenue growth and margin expansion since 2019 are comparable to Booking, with TCOM trading at 20x PE versus Booking at 30x PE [4] - Upside scenarios include 15% top-line growth, margin expansion to 35%, and multiple expansion, potentially tripling returns over five years [4] - Base-case projections maintain margins and multiples, offering 2x returns, while downside risks include competitive pressures and missed catalysts causing a 25% decline [4] Recent Performance - The stock price has appreciated approximately 27% since previous coverage, reflecting the successful execution of the bullish thesis [6] - The current perspective emphasizes margin resilience, capital returns, and growth in Chinese outbound travel as key catalysts for future performance [6]

Market Overview - US equity futures are flat ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with S&P and Nasdaq futures down 0.1% [1][3] - Nvidia shares fell 1% in premarket trading after reports that China ordered companies to terminate orders for specific AI chips [1][3] - The dollar is near its lowest level in three years, while gold remains near record highs [1][3] Corporate News - Cytokinetics (CYTK) shares rose 1% after announcing a $550 million convertible notes offering and a meeting with US regulators regarding its drug application [4] - Manchester United (MANU) shares fell 9% due to flat revenues and increasing losses [4] - New Fortress Energy (NFE) shares surged 24% after finalizing a $4 billion liquefied natural gas supply deal with Puerto Rico [4] - Vtex (VTEX) shares increased 5% following an upgrade from Jefferies, citing overdone declines and intact long-term growth prospects [4] - Workday (WDAY) shares rose 9% as analysts expressed positive outlooks and Elliott Investment Management noted substantial progress [4] Economic Indicators - Housing starts and building permits data are expected ahead of jobless claims data [1] - The Bank of Canada is anticipated to cut its benchmark overnight rate to 2.5% following weak jobs data [9] International Trade and Relations - China instructed tech firms, including Alibaba and ByteDance, to stop orders for Nvidia's AI chips, impacting Nvidia's stock [1][21] - Trump discussed easing tensions with Indian PM Modi amid tariff disputes and oil purchases from Russia [7] - China released a Wells Fargo banker previously barred from leaving the country, ahead of a potential meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping [7]

Core Insights - Baidu has launched multiple AI applications following the public approval of its Ernie chatbot, leading to a significant increase in its stock price [1] - The company secured an AI-related partnership with China Merchants Group, focusing on large language models and AI applications [2] - Baidu is actively pursuing its AI business, including a $56.2 million offshore bond offering to enhance its competitive position in the AI sector [3] Group 1 - Baidu's shares in Hong Kong surged by up to 12% and gained 9% in U.S. trading, reflecting strong market confidence in its AI initiatives [1] - The partnership with China Merchants Group aims to develop scalable and sustainable industrial intelligence solutions [2] - The offshore bond offering of 4.4 billion yuan ($56.2 million) is part of Baidu's strategy to strengthen its financial resources for AI competition [3] Group 2 - The company is focusing on applications of large language models and AI agents, indicating a strategic shift towards advanced AI technologies [2] - Other Chinese tech firms, such as Tencent, are also raising funds to enhance their AI capabilities, highlighting the competitive landscape in the industry [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Internet** sector, particularly in the **AI infrastructure and applications** space, with significant developments noted in recent months [1][2]. Core Developments 1. **AI Infrastructure Growth**: - There is a renewed narrative around AI infrastructure following Alibaba's cloud and capital expenditure performance, indicating a shift away from reliance on foreign chip supplies [1]. - Alibaba's cloud growth is projected at **30-32% year-over-year** for the second to fourth quarters of FY26E, up from previous estimates of **28-30%** [1]. 2. **New AI Model Launches**: - Notable launches include Alibaba's **Qwen3-Next**, Baidu's **X1.1**, and Tencent's **HYWorld-Voyager 3D**. The Qwen3-Next model is reported to be **10 times more powerful** and costs **1/10th** to build compared to its predecessor [2][7]. - The **Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B** model can perform **10 times faster** than the previous **32B** model [2]. 3. **AI Assistants in Local Services**: - Transaction platforms are releasing AI assistants, such as Alibaba's **Amap 2025** and Meituan's **Xiao Mei**, enhancing user experience in local services [1][8]. 4. **Chip Supply Dynamics**: - Chinese cloud hyperscalers are making progress in self-developed inference chips, reducing dependency on overseas supplies. This shift is expected to drive growth in the AI cloud sector [8]. 5. **Enterprise-Level AI Adoption**: - Daily total token consumption of enterprise-level large models in China reached **10.2 trillion** in the first half of 2025, a **363% increase** compared to the second half of 2024 [10][25]. Financial Projections - Alibaba's target price has been raised to **US$179/HK$174** from **US$163/HK$158**, reflecting the positive outlook on cloud growth and AI offerings [1]. Market Trends 1. **AI Application Engagement**: - AI engagement among consumers increased by **4% month-over-month** in August, driven by strong growth in platforms like Doubao [9]. - The overall time spent on the top 400 mobile apps increased by **5% year-over-year** in August 2025 [11]. 2. **E-commerce and Local Services**: - E-commerce engagement grew by **13% year-over-year**, with platforms like JD and Taobao showing strong performance [11]. - Local services engagement also saw a healthy growth of **16% year-over-year** [11]. 3. **Monetization of AI Applications**: - China's AI application annual recurring revenue (ARR) is estimated at **US$1.5 billion**, accounting for only **5%** of the global AI application market [33]. Additional Insights - The integration of AI functions into super-apps is enhancing user experience, with platforms like Douyin reporting over **210 million** monthly active users for AI search features [9]. - The upcoming **APSARA Conference** is anticipated to provide further updates on Alibaba's AI and cloud progress [10]. Conclusion The developments in the China Internet sector, particularly in AI infrastructure and applications, indicate a robust growth trajectory, with significant advancements in model capabilities and market engagement. The financial outlook for key players like Alibaba remains positive, supported by strong growth assumptions and strategic shifts in chip supply dynamics.

Tencent began marketing its first bond sale in four years, joining a wave of borrowing among Chinese tech firms https://t.co/rQrrSuCu12 ...

China-US Trade Talks & Geopolitical Factors - Trade talks are important, but the Chinese market rally is driven by more than just trade, including AI advancements and a shift towards pro-growth policies [2] - The direction of travel on trade talks is reasonably positive, with less risk of talks falling apart than progress being made [5] - The Russia issue, particularly Russian oil sales to China, poses a significant risk to trade relations [6][7] - The US is potentially using tariffs and trade policy as a geopolitical tool, creating unpredictability [7] Investment Opportunities in China - Certain sectors of the Chinese market, particularly tech and AI, are expected to perform well [3] - Tencent is well-positioned to exploit AI in China due to its powerful ecosystem of apps [9] - While Alibaba is a good opportunity, Tencent is another major player in China [9] Taiwan's Role - Both sides in the negotiations would prefer to avoid the Taiwan issue, and it is unlikely to be a trade bargaining chip [11]