China-US Trade Talks & Geopolitical Factors - Trade talks are important, but the Chinese market rally is driven by more than just trade, including AI advancements and a shift towards pro-growth policies [2] - The direction of travel on trade talks is reasonably positive, with less risk of talks falling apart than progress being made [5] - The Russia issue, particularly Russian oil sales to China, poses a significant risk to trade relations [6][7] - The US is potentially using tariffs and trade policy as a geopolitical tool, creating unpredictability [7] Investment Opportunities in China - Certain sectors of the Chinese market, particularly tech and AI, are expected to perform well [3] - Tencent is well-positioned to exploit AI in China due to its powerful ecosystem of apps [9] - While Alibaba is a good opportunity, Tencent is another major player in China [9] Taiwan's Role - Both sides in the negotiations would prefer to avoid the Taiwan issue, and it is unlikely to be a trade bargaining chip [11]

Um well whether or not there is the idea of a framework, a framework, something agreed upon, not agreed upon, it's better than both sides walking away with nothing. Tim, I mean it does sort of pave the way at least for the possibility that there could be a conversation on Friday, which is a a good >> and and President Trump is speaking in glowing terms about their relationship. I think there was three exclamation points after he talked about that relationship and and it it's look framework for a deal.Uh tha ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 11 September 2025 Head of China Equity Research and Co-Head of Asia TMT Research Alex Yao AC (86 21) 6106 6505 alex.yao@jpmorgan.com SAC Registration Number: S1730523020001 Nancy Liu (86 21) 6106 6343 nancy.liu@jpmorgan.com SAC Registration Number: S1730524090001 J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) Tencent (0700) Overweight Analyzing Tencent's potential with AI agent Price (10 Sep 25): HK$633.50 The integration of GenAI agents on mobile i ...

Summary of AIDC Power Supply Systems Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **AI Data Centre (AIDC)** power supply systems, highlighting the rapid evolution of AI and machine learning workloads, which are driving significant changes in power distribution and supply systems [3][11][24]. Key Insights 1. **Market Growth Projections** - AIDC power systems are projected to grow at a **25% CAGR** from 2025 to 2028, reaching a market size of **US$24 billion** [3][11]. - The largest segments within AIDC equipment include **Power Supply Units (PSU)** at **US$9.7 billion**, followed by **UPS + HVDC** at **US$8.4 billion**, **Diesel Power Generators** at **US$5.6 billion**, and **Battery Backup Units (BBU)** at **US$0.4 billion** [3][15]. 2. **Technological Transitions** - Key trends identified include **high-voltage conversion**, **direct current deployment**, **higher power density**, and **modular architecture** [3][4]. - **HVDC (High-Voltage Direct Current)** systems are expected to see a **94% CAGR** from 2024 to 2028, increasing their market share from **10% to 40%** [4][9][12]. 3. **Chinese Suppliers' Competitive Advantage** - Chinese companies are positioned to gain market share due to **lower costs** and **technological advancements**, particularly those with partnerships with overseas hyperscalers [5][20]. - The report suggests that aligning with hyperscaler demand early is crucial for rapid supply chain penetration [9][20]. 4. **Demand for Backup Power** - There is an anticipated boom in demand for backup power and power supply units, driven by the increasing power density and efficiency requirements of AIDCs [4][15]. 5. **Investment Trends** - North American hyperscalers (Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google) are expected to invest over **US$388.8 billion** in 2025, rising to **US$458.1 billion** in 2026 [27]. - Chinese hyperscalers (Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu) are projected to increase their capex to **US$31.9 billion** in 2025 and **US$32.8 billion** in 2026 [27]. Additional Insights 1. **Power Supply Unit (PSU) Evolution** - The efficiency of AI power shelves is increasing, with current power shelves achieving **97.5%-98% efficiency**, compared to **96%** for non-AI power shelves [75]. - The market for PSUs is dominated by Taiwanese companies, but mainland Chinese companies are catching up [77]. 2. **Solid State Transformers (SST)** - SSTs are expected to become the third-generation technology in power supply systems, combining transformer and HVDC functions, with commercialisation anticipated to begin in **2027** [69][70]. 3. **Competitive Landscape** - The AIDC market is currently dominated by established players like **Schneider**, **Eaton**, and **Vertiv**, but there is room for new entrants with strong technological capabilities [82][88]. - Companies like **Kehua** and **Sungrow** are highlighted as favorable investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and growth potential [9][92]. 4. **Valuation and Market Sentiment** - Despite an **86% YTD rally**, the sector is trading at a **31x 2026E PE**, which is considered undemanding given the forecasted **33% CAGR** in sector EPS from 2025 to 2027 [9][92]. Conclusion The AIDC power supply systems market is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand from hyperscalers. Chinese suppliers are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, and investment opportunities exist in companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The report centers on the AI industry in China, particularly advancements in AI chips, data centers, public clouds, and software applications. It highlights the expected growth of AI as a new driver for various industries over the next 5-10 years [1][2][3]. AI Chips - **Market Growth**: The AI accelerator market in China is projected to grow from **US$18.5 billion in 2024** to **US$78 billion in 2027**, representing a **CAGR of 61%**. Key drivers include high demand from hyper-scalers like Alibaba and supportive government policies [2][14]. - **Localization Rate**: The localization rate of AI accelerators in China is expected to rise from **43% in 2024** to **83% in 2027** [2][15]. Data Centers - **Capacity Growth**: China's total data center capacity is forecasted to grow from **4.2 GW in 2017** to **22.0 GW in 2024**, with a **CAGR of 27%**. Total server capital expenditure is expected to reach **RMB 518 billion in 2027** [3][23]. - **Demand Dynamics**: The total data center demand is projected to increase to **27.1 GW by 2027**, with an expected **25% CAGR** from 2024 to 2027. The utilization rate is anticipated to improve from **64% in 2024** to **67% in 2027** [3][24][25]. AI Models and Applications - **User Adoption**: In 2024, **249 million users** (17.7% of the population) in China are expected to utilize generative AI tools, primarily for Q&A and text processing [4][42]. - **Market Expansion**: The GenAI software market is projected to grow at a **40% CAGR**, reaching **US$9.8 billion by 2029** [4][48]. Key Stock Picks - **Semiconductors**: Companies like Montage and Horizon Robotics are highlighted for their roles in AI chip production [5][53]. - **Data Centers**: VNET and GDS are identified as leading data center operators benefiting from the AI demand [5][53]. - **Software**: Kingdee, Meitu, and Kingsoft Corp are noted for their AI-driven software solutions [5][53]. - **Public Cloud**: Alibaba and Kingsoft Cloud are expected to leverage AI for growth in cloud services [5][54]. Additional Insights - **AI Infrastructure Investment**: Alibaba is committing **RMB 380 billion** over three years to enhance its AI capabilities across various sectors [54][56]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Domestic AI chip manufacturers are narrowing the performance gap with global leaders like Nvidia, indicating a competitive shift in the market [21][38]. - **Emerging Opportunities**: New hardware developments, such as AI glasses and toys, are seen as potential growth areas, although they are still in early stages [42]. Conclusion The report emphasizes the rapid advancements and growth potential within China's AI sector, driven by increasing demand for AI technologies across various industries, significant investments in infrastructure, and a competitive landscape that is evolving quickly.

Group 1: China's Tech Sector and Economic Stimulus - China's technology-focused indices are showing strong momentum, with the CSI Battery Index expected to open nearly 2% higher due to a 2027 storage expansion plan [3] - The CSI Semiconductor Index is projected to jump 3%, reflecting a similar increase in the SSE STAR AI Index as China investigates the U.S. chip sector [3][9] - The People's Bank of China injected 280 billion yuan into the market through 7-day reverse repos, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40% [4][9] Group 2: Housing Market Headwinds - In China, new home prices declined by 0.30% month-over-month in August, while used home prices fell by 0.58%, indicating ongoing weakness in the property sector [5][9] - The UK housing market is also experiencing a downturn, with prices dropping and rent growth reaching a four-year low, suggesting broader economic pressures [6][9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Corporate Developments - Geopolitical tensions are rising as Beijing seeks a visit from former President Trump amid crucial trade negotiations with the U.S. [7][9] - Tencent's medium-term notes received an A1 rating from Moody's, indicating a stable outlook for the company [8] - Apple is under pressure to upgrade its Siri voice assistant due to increasing competition in the AI space [8] - South Korean shipbuilder HD Korea secured a 652 billion Won deal for four container ships from a British client, marking a significant corporate win [8]

Chinese technology and mobile gaming giant Tencent has appointed banks for its first bond offering in four years https://t.co/iQ9kOAoTXs ...

RT Tetsuo (@tetsuoai)Image-to-MoGe model for depth estimation to Tencent video diffusion generation, deployed and configured with Grok Code Fast. https://t.co/isWqbr9pNz ...

Tencent has poached a top AI researcher from OpenAI, marking a major talent shift from the US to China, sources say https://t.co/SN4ioJFP4o ...

Market Overview - Asian equities experienced a strong week, with the exception of Mainland China, which saw slight declines as the market consolidates after a recent rally [2] - Chinese equity investors, after a bear market from 2021 to 2023, witnessed a strong week, particularly in Hong Kong, which broke above recent resistance levels [3] Company Performance - Hong Kong growth stocks led the gains, with Alibaba Group rising by 5.44% and Baidu climbing by 8.08%, driven by reports of both companies developing proprietary semiconductor chips [4] - Mainland investors continued to purchase Alibaba shares in Hong Kong through Southbound Stock Connect, while Baidu's rally was partly attributed to short covering [5] - Technology hardware stocks were mixed, with Foxconn gaining 4.84%, while semiconductor stocks showed varied performance, with Cambricon Technologies up by 7.28% and SMIC down by 1.69% [6] Sector Insights - The Chinese healthcare sector rebounded amid concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on imported healthcare drugs and equipment, with the sector outperforming year-to-date [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw Zijin Mining decline by 0.23% ahead of its planned relisting in Hong Kong, while CATL rose by 0.76% due to positive electrical equipment prospects [9] Regulatory and Economic Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation urged companies to end unfair competition in food delivery subsidies, addressing the "race to the bottom" in the industry [7] - The Ministry of Finance reported an increase in the government budget deficit to 4% this year, with special government bond issuance climbing to RMB 1.94 trillion, indicating continued economic policy support [11] Diplomatic Activity - U.S. lawmakers are scheduled to visit China, marking the first visit by a U.S. House of Representatives delegation since 2019, which is seen as a positive sign for U.S.-China relations [7][10]