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Well, European chipmaker ASML throwing cold water on yesterday's chip stock rally. The company walking back its 2026 growth forecast, citing trade risks and global tensions. Joining me now, Patrick Morehead, more insight strategy founder, CEO, and chief analyst.Patrick, it's good to see you. So, um, you know, ASML, maker of these lithography machines that are basically crucial in the chipm. They're seen usually as sort of a bell weather or an indicator.So what does it tell us that they are seeing this tarif ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including NVIDIA, AMD, and TSMC, indicating a positive outlook for these firms in the technology sector [33]. Core Insights - The resumption of NVIDIA's H20 GPU sales to China is expected to positively impact the APAC technology supply chain, particularly benefiting companies like Inventec and Wistron [2][4]. - AMD's MI308X license applications for export to China are moving forward, which could lead to a recovery in revenue after significant write-downs [3]. - The overall demand for NVIDIA's RTX GPU series may moderate due to the increased availability of H20 GPUs, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [4][6]. Summary by Sections NVIDIA and AMD Developments - NVIDIA is filing applications to resume sales of the H20 GPU, with government assurances for license approval, and has introduced a compliant RTX PRO GPU [2]. - AMD's license applications for MI308X are under review, with expectations of resuming shipments as approvals are granted, despite prior inventory write-downs of approximately US$800 million [3]. APAC Technology Supply Chain - Inventec is positioned to benefit significantly from the H20 server rack business, with 10% of shipments to China potentially generating over 20% of sales due to higher average selling prices (ASPs) [4]. - Other ODMs like Wistron and Hon Hai are also expected to gain from the H20 export relief, enhancing their revenue prospects [4]. Semiconductor and HBM Market - The relaxation of export controls on NVIDIA's AI GPUs is anticipated to benefit upstream suppliers like TSMC and KYEC, with projections of significant growth in CoWoS demand [8]. - Samsung is expected to be the main beneficiary in the HBM market due to the resumption of H20 sales, with forecasts indicating substantial quarter-over-quarter growth in HBM bit demand [10]. Price Dynamics and Market Trends - The report notes a potential moderation in RTX GPU sales due to cannibalization from H20, with expectations of price adjustments in the secondary market [6]. - The demand for HBM is projected to surge with the resumption of H20 shipments, despite ongoing localization efforts in China [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Xiaomi Corp, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance relative to its industry peers [4][64]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipment in 2Q25 is expected to exceed its performance in 1Q25, with preliminary data suggesting a slight year-over-year increase of 0.6% to 42.5 million units, securing a 14.4% global market share [1][2]. - The overall global smartphone shipment in 2Q25 is projected to be 295.2 million units, reflecting a modest increase of 1.0% year-over-year according to IDC [1]. - Samsung remains the market leader with 58 million units shipped, representing a 7.9% year-over-year increase and a 19.7% market share, while Apple follows with 46.4 million units and a 15.7% share [2]. Summary by Sections Shipment Performance - Xiaomi's shipment is anticipated to surpass its previous quarter's performance, with a total of 42.5 million units shipped in 2Q25, marking a 0.6% increase year-over-year [2]. - The global smartphone market is experiencing slight growth, with IDC reporting a total shipment of 295.2 million units in 2Q25, up 1.0% year-over-year [1]. Market Position - Xiaomi ranks third in the global smartphone market, holding a 14.4% share, while Samsung and Apple hold the first and second positions, respectively [2]. - Canalys data indicates a 1% year-over-year decline in global smartphone shipments, with Xiaomi's market share slightly lower at 15% compared to IDC's figures [3]. Financial Metrics - The report provides financial projections for Xiaomi, estimating revenue growth from RMB 365.9 billion in 2024 to RMB 687.1 billion by 2027, with corresponding EPS growth from RMB 1.07 to RMB 2.56 over the same period [4].

Core Insights - Colin Selikow, Chief Creative Officer of DDB Chicago, has been named to Campaign US's 2025 40 Over 40 list, recognizing executives in advertising, marketing, media, technology, and communications [1] - Under Selikow's leadership, DDB Chicago has achieved significant accolades, including being named Campaign US' 2024 Creative Breakthrough Agency and winning over 300 international awards [4] Company Achievements - DDB Chicago has earned the title of Campaign US' 2024 Creative Breakthrough Agency, reflecting its innovative approach and successful campaigns [4] - The agency has received over 300 international awards, including 49 Cannes Lions, 31 D&AD Pencils, and 46 One Show Pencils, showcasing its creative excellence [4] Leadership and Impact - Colin Selikow is recognized as the 1 Most Awarded Executive Creative Director in the World by The Drum in 2024 and The One Club in 2023, highlighting his influence in the industry [2] - Selikow's leadership has fostered a culture of creativity and mentorship at DDB Chicago, contributing to the agency's growth and success [3] Notable Campaigns - Selikow led the creation of the "Apologize the Rainbow" campaign for Skittles, which won a 2025 Global Grand Effie, marking it as one of the most awarded campaigns of 2023 [4] - DDB Chicago recently secured the global creative and strategy assignment for Bimbo Global, demonstrating its competitive edge in the market [3] Industry Recognition - The judges for the Campaign US 40 Over 40 Awards are established professionals, ensuring that the winners represent the pinnacle of creativity and leadership in the industry [5] - DDB Worldwide has been recognized as the 1 Most Awarded Agency Network in the 2024 Effie Global Best of the Best and has received multiple accolades from Cannes Lions and D&AD [8]

Functionality and Performance - Gemini on Galaxy watches initially met with skepticism, but its performance proved convincing [1] - The watch summarizes responses and reads them aloud, providing hands-free information access [2] - Gemini accurately translated multiple prompts, including Spanish, demonstrating its language capabilities [4] - Gemini simplifies tasks, potentially replacing phone-based text input due to improved voice dictation [5] Integration and Future Potential - Gemini requires Gemini on the phone and Wear OS 4 or higher on the watch for automated updates [5] - Seamless integration across devices allows access to information from phone to wrist and vice versa [6] - Third-party app integration on Wear OS 6 unlocks further potential for Gemini's functionality [6] User Experience - The system can identify the actual photo spot of a landmark, not just the landmark itself, and provide directions [3]

Core Insights - The IPRdaily report reveals that Chinese home appliance brands dominate the top five positions in the global smart home invention patent rankings, with Haier, Midea, and Gree making significant appearances [1][2]. Group 1: Patent Rankings - Haier leads the list with 2,208 patents, followed closely by Samsung with 2,092 and LG with 2,089. Midea and Gree rank fourth and fifth with 1,832 and 1,640 patents, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Growth - The global smart home market has seen substantial growth, increasing from $52.8 billion in 2018 to a projected $154.3 billion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.57%. The market is expected to reach $250.6 billion by 2029, indicating strong and sustained growth potential [2]. Group 3: Innovation and R&D - Haier's strong R&D capabilities are highlighted by its 17 National Science and Technology Progress Awards, making it a leader in the industry with over 200 original technologies that have been imitated [2]. - Midea is diversifying its business model, maintaining its advantages in traditional appliances while actively expanding into B2B sectors, covering energy-saving technologies and smart control systems [3]. - Gree continues its specialized development in air conditioning and refrigeration technologies, focusing on core components like compressors and motors, successfully extending its expertise into smart home applications [3]. Group 4: Industry Impact - The emergence of these Chinese home appliance companies not only enhances the global image of "Made in China" but also promises to deliver more innovative smart home products to consumers worldwide [3].

Group 1: Nvidia Overview - Nvidia has reached a $4 trillion market cap, solidifying its leadership in the AI hardware sector, particularly in GPUs and data center infrastructure [1] - The company is expected to maintain robust growth, with revenue projected to grow at approximately 30% annually over the next several years [6] - Nvidia's gross margins are described as world-class, and its innovation pipeline keeps it central to the AI arms race [6][8] Group 2: Financial Projections for Nvidia - Zacks Consensus Estimates project Nvidia's revenue to be $45.69 billion for the current quarter and $197.54 billion for the current year, reflecting a year-over-year growth estimate of 51.37% [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates indicate a growth of 41.81% for the current year, with a projected EPS of 4.24 [10] Group 3: Micron Technology Overview - Micron Technology is positioned as a critical player in the AI ecosystem, focusing on memory and storage solutions essential for AI workloads [2][11] - The company is experiencing significant sales and earnings growth, with sales expected to increase by 46% this year and 33% next year [12] Group 4: Financial Projections for Micron - Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast Micron's revenue to be $10.73 billion for the current quarter and $36.79 billion for the current year, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 46.52% [14] - EPS estimates for Micron indicate a remarkable growth of 497.69% for the current year, with a projected EPS of 7.77 [15] Group 5: Investment Sentiment and Valuation - Micron is gaining attention from institutional investors, with analyst sentiment turning increasingly bullish, leading to upward revisions in earnings estimates [12][13] - Despite its rapid growth, Micron trades at a forward earnings multiple of just 16x, which is considered reasonable for its performance in the semiconductor sector [13][16]

Core Insights - Arm Holdings (ARM) is transitioning from a mobile chip design leader to a foundational player in artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT) [1][5] Group 1: Company Overview - Arm Holdings is recognized for its power-efficient chip architecture, which has been crucial for its dominance in mobile computing and is now expanding into AI and IoT [1][2] - The company’s architecture is being adopted across various device categories, including wearables and cloud data centers, to meet the growing demands of AI workloads [2] Group 2: Client Relationships - Major tech companies like Apple, Qualcomm, and Samsung heavily rely on Arm Holdings' architecture for their products, integrating it into their M-series chips, Snapdragon processors, and Exynos chipsets respectively [3][4] - The reliance on Arm is deepening as these companies scale their AI ambitions and IoT strategies, with Arm's scalable power efficiency being central to this transformation [4][5] Group 3: Market Performance - Arm Holdings' stock has increased by 41% over the past three months, although this growth lags behind the industry average of 45% [6][7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 30.92, significantly higher than the industry average of 8.64, indicating a steep valuation [7][11] Group 4: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arm's earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, with current estimates for the upcoming quarters and years being stable [9][10]

Core Insights - Intel and Qualcomm are leading semiconductor companies focusing on AI and advanced chip technologies, with Intel shifting from PC-centric to data-centric businesses [2][4] - Qualcomm is enhancing its position in mobile and edge computing markets, leveraging its extensive IP portfolio [3][8] Intel's Position - Intel is implementing its IDM 2.0 strategy to expand manufacturing capacity and improve operational efficiency, aiming to become a leading foundry [5] - The company anticipates shipping over 100 million AI PCs by the end of 2025, with Xeon platforms setting benchmarks in 5G cloud-native core performance [6] - However, Intel faces challenges due to significant revenue dependence on China amid tightening U.S. export restrictions and competition from domestic chipmakers [7] Qualcomm's Position - Qualcomm is well-positioned for long-term growth with strong 5G traction and a diversified revenue stream, expecting 2025 sales to rise by 11.8% and EPS to grow by 14.6% [8][12] - The company is expanding its presence in edge networking and AI PCs, with innovative product launches in mobile chipsets [10] - Despite its strengths, Qualcomm faces competition in the AI PC market and potential impacts from U.S.-China trade tensions [11] Financial Performance - Intel's 2025 sales are projected to decline by 4.3%, while Qualcomm's are expected to grow by 11.8% [12][14] - Over the past year, Intel's stock has declined by 32%, while Qualcomm's has lost 24.4% [14] - Intel's price/sales ratio is 1.97, significantly lower than Qualcomm's 3.93, making Intel appear more attractive from a valuation standpoint [15] Investment Outlook - Long-term earnings growth expectations are 10.5% for Qualcomm and 8.2% for Intel, with Qualcomm currently viewed as a better investment option due to its stronger growth outlook and better Zacks Rank [20]