Group 1 - The China Rare Earth Industry Index decreased by 0.66% as of July 29, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where Baotou Steel led with a rise of 3.57% [1] - The rare earth ETF managed by Harvest (516150) underwent a downward adjustment, but over the past week, it has accumulated a rise of 7.47% [1] - The liquidity of the Harvest Rare Earth ETF showed a turnover of 6.73% and a transaction volume of 268 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [4] Group 2 - As of July 28, 2025, the Harvest Rare Earth ETF reached a new high in scale at 4.01 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 2.735 billion, also ranking first among comparable funds [4] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 151 million yuan, totaling 675 million yuan [4] - The net asset value of the Harvest Rare Earth ETF increased by 78.52% over the past year, ranking 87th out of 2938 index equity funds, placing it in the top 2.96% [4] Group 3 - Light rare earth prices continue to rise due to marginal improvements in supply and demand, with a 28.32% month-on-month decline in imports in June due to the rainy season in Southeast Asia [5] - Exports of rare earth permanent magnet products reached 3187 tons in June, a significant increase of 157.5% compared to May, with exports to the U.S. rising by 660% [5] - The current state of light rare earths shows improved supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for future demand driven by humanoid robots [5] Group 4 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index as of June 30, 2025, include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 55.58% of the index [4][7]

从指数持仓来看，上证50等权重指数十大权重分别为：药明康德（2.59%）、洛阳钼业（2.32%）、中 航沈飞（2.19%）、中国银行（2.18%）、交通银行（2.16%）、万华化学（2.16%）、隆基绿能 （2.15%）、中国船舶（2.15%）、中国铝业（2.14%）、中信证券（2.12%）。 从上证50等权重指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从上证50等权重指数持仓样本的行业来看，金融占比24.36%、工业占比18.17%、信息技术占比 13.95%、原材料占比8.73%、能源占比7.64%、可选消费占比5.86%、主要消费占比5.64%、通信服务占 比5.50%、医药卫生占比4.55%、公用事业占比3.67%、房地产占比1.94%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。每次调整的样本比例一般不超过10%。样本调整设置缓冲区，排名在40名之前的候选新样本优 先进入，排名在60名之前的老样本优先保留。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其 从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算 ...

Core Insights - The China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy Index (932037) has seen a decline of 0.79% as of July 28, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [2] - The recent approval of the first cross-province green electricity direct connection project marks a significant step in promoting the "point-to-point" supply model for renewable energy [3] - The establishment of the China Fusion Energy Company, with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, aims to advance the stable and economic utilization of fusion energy [3] - The rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxide, have increased by 7.23% week-on-week, driven by supply constraints and potential recovery in exports [3] - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF (561790) has experienced a significant increase in scale and shares, with a growth of 397.92 million yuan and 3 million shares respectively over the past week [4] Performance Metrics - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF has achieved a net value increase of 7.84% over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 10.03% since inception [4] - The ETF's average monthly return is 3.05%, with a historical one-year profit probability of 66.39% [4] - The maximum drawdown for the ETF in the last six months is 7.04%, with a recovery time of 71 days, the fastest among comparable funds [4] Fund Structure - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy Index is designed to reflect the performance of 50 listed companies involved in green energy, fossil energy, and energy transmission [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 49.93% of the total, including major players like China Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by rising prices and strong market sentiment, with the rare earth ETF showing impressive performance and attracting substantial capital inflows [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, 2025, the China Rare Earth Industry Index increased by 0.25%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Xiangdian Co. (+5.54%) and Keheng Co. (+2.96%) [1]. - The rare earth ETF managed by Harvest has achieved a three-day consecutive increase, with a weekly rise of 9.55% as of July 25, 2025, ranking first among comparable funds [1][4]. - The trading volume for the rare earth ETF was 4.51%, with a total transaction value of 1.72 billion yuan, and an average daily transaction of 3.90 billion yuan over the past week [4]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The latest scale of the rare earth ETF reached 3.799 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking first among comparable funds [4]. - The fund's shares reached 2.631 billion, also a one-year high, indicating strong investor interest [4]. - Over the past year, the net asset value of the rare earth ETF has increased by 80.41%, placing it in the top 2.65% of index equity funds [4]. Group 3: Industry Insights - According to a report by Founder Securities, the rare earth and magnetic materials sector is performing well due to high market sentiment and rising prices for praseodymium and neodymium metals [5]. - The U.S. Department of Defense's support for MP Company with significantly higher price floors for praseodymium and neodymium (110 USD/kg) indicates the effectiveness of China's rare earth controls and suggests potential valuation increases for the sector [5]. - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth supply chain, with market shares of 69% in rare earth concentrate production, 92% in rare earth smelting and separation, and 90% in rare earth permanent magnets [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Date**: July 25, 2025 - **Analysts**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Key Takeaways Production and Sales of Industrial Goods - Average crude steel output from key steel mills was 2.141 million tons in mid-July 2025, reflecting a 2.1% increase compared to early July [1] - Planned production of household air conditioners is expected to decline by 7.1% year-over-year in August [1] - Passenger vehicle (PV) sales are projected at 1.85 million units in July, marking an 8% year-over-year increase but an 11% month-over-month decrease, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales at 1.01 million units [1] - Shipbuilding delivery volume for the first half of 2025 was 24.13 million compensated gross tons (CGT), down 3.5% year-over-year [1] Infrastructure and Property Developments - Construction has commenced on a massive hydro station at the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, with a total investment of RMB 1.2 trillion [2] - Water conservancy investment in China reached RMB 532.9 billion in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 6.3% year-over-year [2] - Renovation of old urban communities saw 16,500 new starts, achieving approximately 66% of the annual target in the first half of 2025 [2] Supply Policies - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) are working to improve standards for recognizing low-price dumping and regulating market price order [3] - The National Energy Administration (NEA) has issued a notice to check coal overproduction in eight major coal-producing provinces for 2024 and year-to-date 2025 [3] Building Materials Activity - Weekly cement shipments in July 2025 were 665 million tons, with a year-to-date total of 2,778 million tons, reflecting a 56% increase [4] - Daily molten iron production was reported at 2,422 thousand tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% [4] - Planned production of battery materials in July 2025 includes 145.1 GWh of batteries, a 1% increase year-over-year, while lithium production is expected to reach 102.2 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), a 3% increase [4] Additional Insights - The hydro station project is significant for future energy supply and infrastructure development in the region, indicating a strong government push towards renewable energy sources [8] - Supply-side policies may lead to increased market stability and reduced competition pressures in the materials sector [3] - The decline in household AC production and fluctuations in vehicle sales may indicate broader economic trends affecting consumer demand [1][2] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed outlook for the Greater China materials sector, with positive developments in infrastructure and energy projects, but challenges in consumer goods production and sales. The ongoing supply-side policies are expected to play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in the coming months.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Greater China Materials, specifically in the Asia Pacific region [6][62] - **Current Industry View**: Attractive, indicating positive expectations for performance over the next 12-18 months [6][33] Key Market Movements Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices increased by 1.2% week-over-week (WoW) to Rmb79,640/t, with inventories down by 13.2% [2][10] - **Aluminum**: Prices rose by 0.4% WoW to Rmb20,780/t, while inventories increased by 6.4% [2][10] Battery Metals - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Domestic industrial-grade prices rose by 6.5% WoW to Rmb55,370/t, and battery-grade prices increased by 5.4% to Rmb60,520/t [2][10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Industrial-grade prices saw an 8.8% increase WoW to Rmb68,900/t, while battery-grade prices rose by 8.6% to Rmb70,550/t [2][10] Steel - **Hot Rolled Coil (HRC)**: Prices increased by 1.5% WoW to Rmb3,400/t [3][10] - **Cold Rolled Coil (CRC)**: Prices rose by 4.0% WoW to Rmb3,914/t [3][10] - **Rebar**: Prices increased by 1.3% WoW to Rmb3,296/t [3][10] - **Tangshan Billet**: Prices rose by 5.4% WoW to Rmb3,120/t [3][10] Cement and Coal - **Cement**: Prices decreased by 1.0% WoW to Rmb324/t [3][10] - **Coal**: Prices for QHD5500 increased by 0.3% WoW to Rmb662/t, with inventories up by 1.2% to 5.85 million tonnes [3][10] Glass - **Float Glass**: Prices increased by 2.4% WoW to Rmb1,281/t [4][10] - **Glass Fiber**: Prices remained stable at Rmb3,900/t [4][10] Regulatory and Infrastructure Developments - **Regulatory Actions**: NDRC and SAMR are working to improve standards for recognizing low-price dumping and regulating market price order [8] - **Infrastructure Investment**: Construction of a hydro station in the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet has commenced, with a total investment of Rmb1.2 trillion [8] Analyst Insights - **Analysts Involved**: Rachel L Zhang, Chris Jiang, Hannah Yang, and Davven Xu are the key analysts providing insights on the Greater China Materials sector [5][62] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from several companies in the materials sector, indicating potential conflicts of interest [17][20] Conclusion - The Greater China Materials sector is experiencing positive price movements across various commodities, with a favorable outlook for the coming months. Regulatory actions and significant infrastructure investments are also shaping the market landscape.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][106] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic mining disturbances have intensified, leading to a rebound in lithium prices from the bottom [2] - Copper prices have fluctuated due to significant inventory reduction domestically, with a short-term outlook of price support from low inventory levels [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable amid rising inventories, while lithium prices have rebounded significantly due to supply-side disturbances [2] - Cobalt prices have increased as inventory is gradually consumed, with potential price rebounds anticipated due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic conditions are showing mixed signals, with U.S. unemployment claims lower than expected [6] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have seen an increase of 1.22% in London and 1.07% in Shanghai, with significant inventory changes noted [22] - The report indicates a loss in copper smelting margins, which have expanded to -2475 CNY/ton [22] 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices have increased by 2.33% in London and 1.19% in Shanghai, with rising inventories impacting price stability [34] - The profit margin for aluminum smelting has decreased to 4460 CNY/ton [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have risen by 1.55% in London and 0.56% in Shanghai, while zinc prices have increased by 2.26% in London and 2.44% in Shanghai [44] - Mining profits for zinc have improved to 7360 CNY/ton [44] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have increased by 4.89% in London and 2.67% in Shanghai, with nickel prices also showing upward trends [58] - Domestic nickel iron enterprises have reported profits of 5792 CNY/ton [58] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices have risen by 9.38% to 72900 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene prices increasing by 13.92% to 810 USD/ton [74] - The report notes that smelting margins for lithium remain negative, indicating challenges in profitability [74] 3.2 Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.06% to 248000 CNY/ton, with significant price increases anticipated due to supply constraints [86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side disturbances are causing lithium prices to continue to break through previous levels. Additionally, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite recent price corrections due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements [1][37]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase this week, with a 6.7% rise in the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index. Sub-sectors such as small metals and energy metals experienced even higher gains of 14.3% and 12.4%, respectively [10][17]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Price strength driven by tariff easing and anti-involution sentiment. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 13.16% year-on-year to 6.6276 million tons in the first half of the year, despite supply constraints [2]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term price fluctuations due to changing sentiments around anti-involution policies. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 43.975 million tons, with minor production adjustments observed [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Continued supply-side disturbances led to a price increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 14.3% to 79,000 yuan/ton. Concerns over mining license renewals may tighten supply further [2][28]. - **Silicon Metal**: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to market sentiment influenced by anti-involution policies, despite stable demand from downstream industries [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have corrected due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements, but the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged amid ongoing concerns over global monetary credit and public debt [1][37]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - **Shanxi International** (Buy) - **Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining** (Buy) - **Luoyang Molybdenum** (Buy) - **China Hongqiao Group** (Buy) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the sector [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for industrial metals driven by domestic policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting infrastructure investment, alongside U.S. fiscal expansion and ongoing interest rate cuts [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to see price increases due to supply disruptions and strong demand from the new energy sector [3]. - Precious metals are favored due to heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid global trade tensions and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metal prices are rising due to domestic "anti-involution" policies and infrastructure investment, with copper prices experiencing short-term fluctuations due to trade changes [2]. - Key statistics include a weekly increase in aluminum prices by 1.22% and copper prices by 1.07%, while zinc prices rose by 2.65% [11]. - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rebounding significantly due to supply concerns from regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, with expectations for continued price increases [3]. - Cobalt prices are also anticipated to rise due to raw material shortages and increased demand as the market recovers from a low trading volume [3]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for gold driven by global trade uncertainties and central bank purchases, predicting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Gold prices have shown a weekly increase of 0.68%, while silver prices rose by 2.13% [11]. - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4].