Core Insights - Check Point aims to secure customers' AI transformation through a "prevention-first" approach and AI-powered unified management across its portfolio [1] - The company has expanded its platform to include AI security and exposure management, responding to an AI-driven shift in the threat landscape [2] - Check Point's strategy focuses on consistent execution and strengthening its foundation for long-term growth, with changes in organizational structure and go-to-market strategies [3] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Check Point reported revenue of $745 million, a 6% year-over-year increase, with subscription revenue growing by 11% [6][10] - Non-GAAP EPS for Q4 was $3.40, exceeding guidance, which included a one-time tax benefit of approximately $0.52 [11] - Full-year 2025 revenue reached $2.725 billion, also a 6% year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP EPS of $11.89, boosted by a tax benefit [14] Growth Projections - For 2026, Check Point guided revenue between $2.83 billion and $2.95 billion, representing 4% to 8% growth, with subscription revenue growth projected at 10% to 14% [5][17] - The company anticipates Q1 2026 revenue of $655 million to $685 million, with subscription revenue between $318 million and $328 million [17] Strategic Initiatives - Check Point is repositioning to secure AI transformation with a four-pillar platform that includes AI security and exposure management [7] - The company has made targeted acquisitions, including Cyclops for asset discovery and Cyada for governing autonomous AI agents [8] - Check Point is focusing on managed service providers (MSPs) to enhance its offerings for smaller customers through partnerships [9] Market Dynamics - The company highlighted that attackers are adopting AI faster than defenders, creating new attack surfaces due to rapid enterprise AI adoption [2] - Check Point's revenue growth in Q4 was driven primarily by subscription revenue, which is expected to continue benefiting from a product price increase effective January 1, 2026 [16] Operational Metrics - Deferred revenue grew 9% year-over-year to $2.18 billion, with calculated billings up 8% to $1.039 billion [12] - Gross margin for Q4 was 89%, with operating expenses rising 13% due to workforce increases and investments in sales and marketing [13]

Earnings Reports - More than two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with 78% beating expectations [1] - S&P earnings growth is projected to increase by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [1] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to rise by +4.6% [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.52%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down -0.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -1.08% [5] - The weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks is impacting the broader market, with notable declines in Amazon, Apple, and Meta Platforms [10] - Cisco Systems is down more than -10% due to expectations of reduced profitability from higher memory-chip prices [4][14] Sector Movements - Sandisk is up more than +7% following a forecast of increased demand for NAND memory chips from Kioxia Holdings [3][18] - Strength in chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks is supporting the broader market, with Seagate Technology up more than +9% [12] - Trucking and logistics companies are facing significant sell-offs, with CH Robinson Worldwide down more than -19% [11] Economic Indicators - US January existing home sales fell -8.4% month-over-month to a 16-month low of 3.91 million, below expectations [2] - The 10-year T-note yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.14%, influenced by weaker economic data [3][7] - European government bond yields are also declining, with the 10-year German bund yield dropping to a 2.25-month low [8]

Market Overview - Overseas stock markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 reaching a new all-time high, up by +0.77%, while Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 fell by -0.02% from a record high [1] - The S&P 500 Index is up +0.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up +0.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -0.10% [6] Earnings Reports - More than two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with 78% beating expectations, and S&P earnings growth is expected to rise by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [2] - Cognex Corp reported Q4 revenue of $252.3 million, exceeding the consensus of $239.6 million, and forecasts Q1 revenue of $235 million to $255 million, stronger than the consensus of $230.4 million [11] - Zebra Technologies reported Q4 net sales of $1.48 billion, better than the consensus of $1.47 billion [12] - Howmet Aerospace reported Q4 revenue of $2.17 billion, above the consensus of $2.13 billion, and forecasts Q1 revenue of $2.23 billion to $2.25 billion, stronger than the consensus of $2.16 billion [13] Stock Movements - Sandisk is up more than +8% due to higher demand forecasts for NAND memory chips from Kioxia [5][13] - Seagate Technology is up more than +9%, leading gainers in the Nasdaq 100, supported by strength in chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks [10] - Cisco Systems is down -9% after indicating that higher memory-chip prices will impact profitability [5][15] - Motorola Solutions is up more than +8% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $4.59, better than the consensus of $4.35 [14] Economic Indicators - January existing home sales are expected to decline by -4.3% month-over-month to 4.16 million [3] - January CPI is expected to rise by +2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI also expected to increase by +2.5% year-over-year [3] - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -5,000 to 227,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expected [4]

Core Insights - Allot Ltd. (ALLT) shares have increased by 15.2% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology Sector, which saw a mere 0.5% appreciation [1] - The stock has outperformed competitors such as Check Point Software (CHKP), Fortinet (FTNT), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW), with Fortinet gaining 4.1%, while CHKP and PANW lost 10.6% and 20.4%, respectively [1] SECaaS Growth - Allot's SECaaS (Security as a Service) business is becoming the primary growth driver, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing by 60% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [5] - SECaaS accounted for approximately 28% of Allot's total revenues in Q3, with expectations to rise to 30% if current trends persist [6] - The increase in SECaaS revenue is attributed to higher adoption rates from telecom partners and an increase in end users signing up for security services [5][6] Revenue and Guidance - Allot raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $100-$103 million, up from the previous estimate of $98-$102 million [8] - The company also expects SECaaS ARR growth to exceed 60% year-over-year, an increase from the prior guidance of 55-60% [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 indicates a revenue growth of 13.3% [9] Valuation Metrics - Allot's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.27X, which is lower than the sector average of 6.54X and its peers, including CHKP (6.85X), FTNT (8.4X), and PANW (10.27X) [11][15] - This valuation discount may appeal to long-term investors despite the competitive landscape [15] Competitive Landscape - Allot faces significant competition from established players in the network traffic management and security sectors, including Check Point Software, Fortinet, and Palo Alto Networks [16] - Competitors are continuously innovating their offerings, which could impact Allot's market position [16][20][19] Conclusion - Allot is experiencing robust growth in its SECaaS business, leading to increased revenues and improved earnings visibility [21] - The rising interest in new cybersecurity offerings presents opportunities for upselling to existing customers, enhancing the company's growth prospects [21]

Vi e w p o i n t | 09 Feb 2026 19:49:16 ET │ 9 pages North America Systems Software Frontier AI Coming for Cyber? Headlines Hitting Last Bastions of Defense CITI'S TAKE In the last 2 weeks, the crescendo of headlines/social media posts from frontier AI companies on their express desires and preparedness to tackle cybersecurity use cases has punctured the "hermetic seal" of cyber ISVs' perceived defensiveness and taller business/technical/valuation moats. Cybersecurity is effectively an adoption tax at worst ...

分组1 - Fortinet reported quarterly earnings of $0.81 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.74 per share, and showing an increase from $0.74 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +9.86% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.91 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.54% and increasing from $1.66 billion year-over-year [2] - Fortinet has consistently outperformed consensus EPS and revenue estimates over the last four quarters, indicating strong financial performance [2] 分组2 - The stock's immediate price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and future earnings expectations [3] - Fortinet shares have increased by approximately 2.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.65 on revenues of $1.72 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.92 on revenues of $7.49 billion [7] 分组3 - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Security industry is currently in the bottom 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked using tools like the Zacks Rank [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is currently trading at a high price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, raising concerns about its valuation amid slowing growth trends [2][6][9]. Valuation and Comparisons - PANW's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 74.26X, which is higher than the Zacks Security industry's ratio of 73.32X, indicating that PANW stock is overvalued [2]. - The stock trades at a premium compared to industry peers such as Check Point Software (19.67X), Fortinet (30.76X), and Okta Inc. (23.66X) [3]. Recent Acquisitions - In January, Palo Alto Networks completed the acquisition of Chronosphere for $3.35 billion, which is approximately 21 times Chronosphere's annual recurring revenue (ARR) of around $160 million [7]. - The company is also in the process of acquiring CyberArk Software for about $25 billion, expected to close by the second half of fiscal 2026, raising investor concerns about the management of two large acquisitions simultaneously [8]. Growth Trends - PANW is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with a current growth rate in the mid-teens, down from mid-20s in fiscal 2023 [11]. - The company forecasts full-year revenue growth for fiscal 2026 to be in the range of 14-15%, with the first quarter of fiscal 2026 showing a 16% year-over-year revenue increase [12]. - Next-Generation Security (NGS) ARR growth has also decelerated, with expectations for fiscal 2026 growth at 26-27%, down from 32% in fiscal 2025 and over 45% in fiscal 2024 [14]. Market Performance - PANW shares have declined 21.1% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Security industry's decline of 19.2% and its peers like Fortinet, Okta, and Check Point Software [15]. - The stock has dipped below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [18]. Conclusion - Despite being a leader in cybersecurity with a strong long-term growth trajectory, the slowing revenue and NGS ARR growth rates suggest limited near-term upside for PANW stock, which carries a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [20].

Core Viewpoint - CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) stock has experienced a significant decline of 21.9% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Security industry's decline of 19.2% [1][7] Group 1: Stock Performance - CrowdStrike shares have underperformed compared to industry peers such as Fortinet (FTNT), Check Point Software (CHKP), and Okta Inc. (OKTA), with Fortinet's shares increasing by 0.2%, while Check Point and Okta have decreased by 10.2% and 2.7%, respectively [1][7] - The stock has dipped below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend and potential for continued downward pressure in the short term [19] Group 2: Revenue Growth - CrowdStrike's revenue growth has slowed, with a decrease from over 35% year-over-year growth until fiscal 2024 to 29% in fiscal 2025, and expectations of further deceleration to around 21% for fiscal 2026 [6][21] - For fiscal 2026, CrowdStrike anticipates total revenues between $4.797 billion and $4.807 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21% to 22% [6] Group 3: Cost Pressures - The company faces margin pressure due to rising research and development (R&D) and sales and marketing (S&M) costs, with R&D expenses increasing twelvefold over the last six fiscal years [9][10] - S&M expenses have also surged nearly ninefold to $1.52 billion in fiscal 2025 from $173 million in fiscal 2019, with year-over-year increases of 20.2% and 23.3% for S&M and R&D expenses, respectively, in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 [10][11] Group 4: Profitability Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CrowdStrike's fiscal 2026 bottom line is projected at $3.72 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 5.3% [12] - The company is currently trading at a high price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 22.09X, significantly above the Zacks Security industry's forward 12-month P/S ratio of 11.07X, suggesting that CRWD stock is overvalued [15][18]

Core Insights - The Cyber Security Report 2026 indicates a significant rise in cyber attacks, with organizations facing an average of 1,968 attacks per week in 2025, marking a 70% increase since 2023 [2] - The report emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on cyber security, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional security measures as attackers adopt more automated and sophisticated techniques [3][4] Key Findings from the Cyber Security Report 2026 - AI is increasingly integrated into attack workflows, leading to faster reconnaissance and operational decision-making, with 89% of organizations encountering risky AI prompts [5] - The ransomware ecosystem has become more fragmented, resulting in a 53% year-over-year increase in extorted victims and a 50% rise in new ransomware-as-a-service groups [5] - Social engineering tactics have expanded beyond email, with a 500% surge in ClickFix techniques and more structured phone-based impersonation attempts [5] - Security weaknesses have been identified in 40% of reviewed Model Context Protocol servers, highlighting vulnerabilities as AI systems become more prevalent [5] Recommendations for Security Leaders - Organizations should rethink security design to address AI-driven threats, focusing on proactive measures rather than reactive responses [5] - It is crucial to protect the digital workspace, as social engineering now spans multiple platforms, including email, browsers, and collaboration tools [5] - Active inventory and security of unmonitored edge devices, VPN appliances, and IoT systems are essential to reduce hidden exposure [5] - A prevention-first approach is recommended to stop threats before they can propagate, emphasizing the need for unified visibility across hybrid environments [10]

Core Viewpoint - Truist has lowered the price target for Check Point (CHKP) to $225 from $250 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the cybersecurity sector in Q4 [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Check Point (CHKP) is expected to report strong performance in calendar Q4, with a conservative guidance approach that may lead to a continued beat-and-raise trend for 2026 [1] - The firm’s conversations with IT budget holders and software sellers suggest that demand and the macro environment remain stable, with ongoing momentum in Security & AI initiatives [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The software equity sector, including cybersecurity, is facing significant pressure as investors shift focus towards AI hardware, which has contributed to a decline in the IGV – iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, down approximately 7% in the early weeks of trading [1] - Concerns regarding AI-driven competitive disruption, slow monetization of AI features, prolonged high interest rates, and geopolitical shocks are impacting the overall sentiment in the software sector [1]