UBM Development (UBS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 28, 2025 04:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsThomas Winkler - CEOPatric Thate - CFOStefan Scharff - Managing PartnerConference Call ParticipantsSimon Stippig - Senior AnalystPhilip Hettich - Equity Research AnalystOperatorwarm welcome to today's earnings call of the UBM Development AGI following the publication of the first half year figures of 02/2025. We are delighted to welcome the CEO, Thomas Winkler, and the CFO, Patrick Tatte, who will speak in a moment a ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a black zero in Q2 2025, indicating a return to profitability is expected in the second half of the year [4][6] - Earnings before tax improved by 47% in the first half of 2025, with an equity ratio back above 30% [6][7] - The successful issuance of a green hybrid increased equity above EUR 350 million, while net debt remained below EUR 550 million [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Residential sales doubled in the first half of 2025, with 208 apartments sold compared to 97 in the same period last year [8] - The company has a pipeline of 2,800 apartments over the next four years, ensuring steady income [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Newly started residential construction projects in Germany decreased by 85% since Q4 2022, leading to forecasts of fewer than 200,000 new apartments in 2025 [11] - Residential prices in Q2 2025 rose by 3.8% in Germany, 4% in Austria, and 17% in the Czech Republic, indicating a tightening supply [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors, which are expected to drive future growth in Europe [16][19] - The company aims to maintain its industry leadership in sustainability and is considering potential project rezoning from office/light industrial to residential to address the supply-demand imbalance [55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about returning to profitability, citing a flight to real assets and a significant market shakeout as positive indicators [21][23] - The company anticipates a continued demand for residential properties due to a shortage of supply and rising prices [50] Other Important Information - The company has successfully managed its liquidity, with EUR 168 million available against repayment obligations of EUR 102 million for 2025 [13] - The hotel segment output was reported at EUR 43 million, with a different mix of contributions compared to the previous year [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on sales in Mainz - The company sold two apartments in Q2, maintaining a 50% sales rate, with ongoing reservations pending bank financing [29] Question: Letting process for Timber Pioneer in Frankfurt - The letting process is slow due to summer breaks, but management expects positive news in September [32] Question: Hotel segment performance - The hotel segment output is on par with last year, with Poland performing better, while Germany faced challenges due to the absence of extraordinary events [35] Question: Update on residential projects - The company plans to start construction on new residential projects next year, with a focus on smooth sales [36] Question: Potential reallocation of projects from office to residential - The company is considering rezoning projects based on market conditions and demand for residential properties [55] Question: Update on Kopinski Jockberg hotel sale - Exclusivity has been granted to one party for the sale, but no final agreement is expected before year-end [56] Question: Office lease lead times - Lead times for office leases have extended significantly, with management agreeing that it could take up to nine or ten months [68] Question: Personnel costs outlook - Personnel costs are expected to decrease in the second half due to a reduction in the workforce, potentially supporting overall results [76]

Financial Performance - UBS reported a strong 2Q25 with a net profit of $2.4 billion, and an underlying profit before tax of $2.7 billion, resulting in an underlying RoCET1 of 15.3%[11] - For 1H25, the net profit was $4.1 billion, with an underlying profit before tax of $5.3 billion and an underlying RoCET1 of 13.3%[11] - 2Q25 underlying revenues increased by 8% to $11.6 billion, while underlying operating expenses increased by 3% to $8.8 billion, driving profitability[15] - Total assets reached $1,670 billion in 2Q25, an increase of 8% QoQ and 7% YoY[22] Integration and Cost Savings - Approximately 1/3 of Swiss-booked client accounts have been successfully transferred onto UBS systems, with the aim to migrate the remaining accounts by the end of 1Q26[11] - Cumulative gross cost saves of $9.1 billion have been achieved[11] - The company has achieved approximately 70% of its gross cost save ambition and remains on track to achieve its end-2026 target[19, 20] Business Division Performance - Global Wealth Management (GWM) reported underlying total revenues of $6.156 billion, a 6% increase YoY, and a profit before tax of $1.443 billion, a 24% increase YoY[30, 31] - GWM invested assets reached $4,512 billion, an increase of 7% QoQ[30, 32] - The Investment Bank (IB) reported underlying total revenues of $2.815 billion, a 13% increase YoY, with Global Markets revenues increasing by 26% YoY[39, 40, 41] Capital and Liquidity - The CET1 capital ratio stood at 14.4%[11] - The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) averaged 182%[24, 26]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 has gained approximately 9.93% year to date, but this does not fully reflect the broader market's performance in 2025, which has been characterized by volatility [1] - In August, the index advanced by 3.2%, despite notable swings throughout the month [2] Earnings and Economic Outlook - Resilient earnings, a supportive macro backdrop, and signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding potential rate cuts starting in September contribute to an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy [2] - Jefferies raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6,600 from 5,600, citing strong second-quarter corporate earnings and projecting a 10% rise in S&P 500 EPS this year [3] - As of last Friday, 80% of the 474 S&P 500 companies that reported second-quarter earnings exceeded analysts' expectations, surpassing the prior four-quarter average of 76.4% and the historical average of 67% [4] Forecast Revisions - UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600 from 6,200, marking its second upgrade in two months, driven by confidence in robust corporate earnings and easing trade tensions [5] - Citigroup also increased its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600 from 6,300, with projections for the index to reach 6,900 by mid-next year [6] - Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee raised his S&P 500 year-end forecast to 6,600, contingent on a dovish Fed and a recovery in the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index [7] Interest Rate Expectations - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that an interest rate cut could be considered at the next meeting, with markets anticipating an 88.2% likelihood of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to Powell's speech [8] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to explore ETFs tracking the S&P 500 to capitalize on the optimistic outlook for U.S. markets, while maintaining a long-term perspective [9] - Recommended ETFs include Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG) [10] - VOO has the largest asset base at $735.54 billion, followed by IVV at $661.68 billion and SPY at $654.64 billion [11] - SPLG is noted as the cheapest option, suitable for long-term investing, while SPY is highlighted for its liquidity, making it ideal for active trading strategies [12] Equal-Weighted ETFs - Equal-weighted funds provide broad market exposure with lower risk, offering sector-level diversification by assigning equal weight to each stock [13] - The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has gained 7.78% over the past year and 2.28% month to date, outperforming the broader S&P 500 index [14] - Recommended equal-weighted ETFs include Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF (EQL), and Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF (EQWL) [14]

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