AI and Digital Infrastructure - The "Stargate" project, potentially valued at $500 billion, is considered a real development, involving numerous tech companies, though its full realization remains to be seen [1] - The US government views investment in digital infrastructure positively, aiming to maintain a leading position in this area, similar to having a strategic petroleum reserve, especially given the proliferation of AI [3] - The productivity improvements from AI are still in the early phases of discovery, with potential challenges for the entry-level workforce and the need for training and experience to validate AI outputs [5] - Digital infrastructure is attracting investor interest beyond chips and servers, extending to real estate and industrials providing power and cooling for data centers, all related to the AI theme [13] Geopolitics and Trade - The tariff strategy is reportedly compelling foreign-owned companies like TSMC and Foxconn to establish production in the US [6] - Nvidia views China as a significant total addressable market of $15 billion to $50 billion, emphasizing the importance of American technology maintaining a presence there [7] Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, influenced by inflation and unemployment figures [9] - The current Fed target rate of 45% feels restrictive, with a belief that a rate closer to 3% to 35% would be more appropriate in normal times [10][11] - Lower interest rates could aid cyclical companies in refinancing, benefiting industrials and real estate investment trusts [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating on the Asia AI semi and server supply chain, with all top picks rated as Buy [3][7][25]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on AI semiconductors and servers, despite a worsened risk-reward scenario compared to April 2025. The demand, supply, and catalysts are expected to favor AI growth into 2026 [3][7][30]. - Hyperscalers are increasingly optimistic about AI, with rising capital expenditure (capex) plans projected to grow by 55% year-on-year in 2025-26 [7][10][30]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity expansion appears more disciplined than in the past, which may impact customer behaviors and the GPU/ASIC supply chain dynamics [6][30][39]. Summary by Sections AI Semi Forecast - The AI semi revenue forecast for 2026 has been raised to 55% year-on-year growth, up from approximately 30% previously, with an introduction of a 20% growth forecast for 2027 [8][39]. - nVidia is expected to maintain a 60% CoWoS capacity booking at TSMC in 2026, which may hinder ASIC growth [8][41]. Server Forecast - The forecast for nVidia's GB rack shipments has been raised from 20.1k units to 22.2k units for 2025, with an introduction of a 46k unit estimate for 2026 [9][30]. - Global server revenue growth is projected at 53% and 28% year-on-year for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with AI server revenue growth rates at 76% and 40% [9][10]. Cloud Capex Uplift - The consensus for the top five US CSPs' capex growth has been revised up from 20% to 55% year-on-year, aligning with the expected growth in nVidia's datacenter sales [10][13]. - Policies such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) are expected to incentivize CSPs to invest more in capex [10][13][30]. Stocks for Action - Key stocks recommended for action include TSMC, Hon Hai, Quanta, Wiwynn, and others, all rated as Buy, with significant upside potential noted [25][20][29]. - The report highlights that AI ODMs are attractive in valuations, with specific recommendations for Wiwynn, Wistron, and Quanta based on their expected performance in the upcoming quarters [20][29]. Structural Growth Trends - The report identifies structural growth trends in PCB/CCL, power, cable, and thermal solutions, with significant upgrades expected in components and architecture from 2H26 to 2027 [21][23][27].

Group 1 - TSMC is identified as a top long-term investment due to its critical role in the AI sector, likened to selling shovels during a gold rush [1] - The company has a significant competitive advantage, or "moat," that positions it favorably against competitors in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 2 - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in TSMC shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and insights, emphasizing a focus on growth stocks and AI integration [1][2]

Intel's Challenges and Needs - Intel faces technological and customer acquisition challenges, not just financial ones [1] - Intel needs external capital infusion, whether from customers or the government, to secure its foundry for the long term [6] - Intel requires tens of billions of dollars to reach 14nm production, in addition to its own investment and customer contributions [6] - Intel needs to secure customer wins to build confidence, even though its technology is considered good on paper [8] - Intel's capital needs are at the root of its current situation [9] Government and Industry Perspectives - The U S government should support a U S company like Intel to make leading-edge chips for national security reasons [3] - The U S government taking equity in Intel could incentivize others to support and buy from them [7] - Tariffs or regulations could encourage customers to use Intel, but winning on technological merit is preferable [11] - TSMC is unlikely to bring leading-edge technology to the U S, making Intel the best bet for advanced chip manufacturing in the U S [10] Potential Solutions and Considerations - A combination of private equity and government investment in Intel makes sense to protect that investment [11] - Structuring a government investment in a fair way, such as divesting shares or paying back the investment, is crucial [12][13] - The government's involvement in investments is very tricky [13] - Intel's stock has increased 27% over the course of five days [4]

Government Intervention & Funding - Potential US government equity stake in Intel is being considered, possibly funded through existing CHIPS Act money [2] - Intel has already received billions of dollars in CHIPS Act funding under the Biden administration [2] - Trump is considering more support in the form of an equity stake potentially even funding those that stake through the existing chipsack money [2] Intel's Core Issues & Challenges - Intel's core issue is catching up in advanced chip manufacturing [1] - Intel's advanced manufacturing requires confirmed customer commitments and will no longer receive "blank checks" [1] - Intel lags behind TSMC and Samsung in producing cutting-edge chips for AI [3] - Federal investment may not improve Intel's fab capabilities in the near term [3] - Intel needs both the technology and the customers to fill those fabs profitably [3] Market & Investor Perspective - Market may experience short-term support on political headlines, with Intel's stock up over 65% [4] - Long-term upside remains limited without a fix to Intel's manufacturing gap [4] - Federal cash doesn't change the fact that Intel needs both the technology and the customers to fill those fabs profitably [3] - Washington's money may boost sentiment, but it won't fix the fundamental problem at Intel [4]

What's so interesting, Islam research came out a week or so ago and look really buoyant about future growth and revenue. Very different for this CHIP equipment company. You are pointing out the debate that is waging and all the sell side reports in my inbox right now.Right. I mean, on the call last night, the narrative from the company was that China demand is worse in some of our largest customers that are holding off due to kind of just general economic uncertainty, tariffs and all that. But there's also ...

As the world's largest pure-play foundry, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. TSM — often abbreviated as TSMC — plays a critical role in the global semiconductor value chain. Late last year, International Data Corp stated that the company could expand its market share in the foundry industry to 36% by the end of this year, rising from 33% in 2024.Not surprisingly, TSM stock has responded well to the broader enthusiasm, backed by tremendous demand for artificial intelligence. On a year-to-date basis, TSM ...

even talking about it for Intel and maybe some other struggling American companies. Joining us now is Patrick Moorhead. He is CEO and chief analyst of Moor Insights and Strategy.Again, I want to be clear. We don't know anything. We don't know any potential terms. We don't even know if it's going to happen.Patrick. But what was sort of your initial reaction, your hot take to the Intel news yesterday. >> Well, I.>> Called this a week before, and I do believe that that the US government will put an investment ...

Intel's Challenges in Advanced Chip Manufacturing - Intel's core issue is catching up in advanced chip manufacturing [2] - Intel's advanced manufacturing requires confirmed customer commitments, signaling a need for external orders to build [2] - Intel lags behind TSMC and Samsung in producing cutting-edge chips for AI [4] - Federal investment may not improve Intel's fab capabilities in the near term [4] - Intel needs both technology and customers to fill fabs profitably [5] Potential Government Support and Implications - The US government is reportedly considering taking an equity stake in Intel [1] - The government might fund the equity stake through existing CHIPS Act money [4] - Federal cash may provide short-term support on political headlines [5] - Potential shareholder dilution is a concern with federal investment [4] Strategic Options and Rumors - Closing down the foundry or working with other foundries was considered as a solution [6][7] - Rumors suggested TSMC taking a 51% stake in Intel's foundry business, but TSMC denied it [8] Market Reaction - Intel's stock was up over 65% following news of potential government support [5]

Group 1: AI Market Overview - Significant investment in AI hardware and software is occurring globally as organizations and governments seek efficiency and productivity gains [1][2] - Gartner forecasts a 76% increase in generative AI spending by 2025, reaching $644 billion, indicating a robust growth opportunity in the sector [2] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is a leading player in the AI revolution, manufacturing high-end chips for various devices, and is the largest third-party chip foundry globally [4] - TSMC's revenue increased by 38% year-over-year in the first seven months of 2025, driven by strong demand from major clients like Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom [5] - The company raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to 30%, up from mid-20% expectations, with potential for further growth due to AI-related catalysts [6] - Sales of generative AI-capable smartphones are expected to rise by 68% in 2025, benefiting TSMC's largest customer, Apple, which reported a 13.5% increase in iPhone revenue [7] - TSMC's diverse customer base and focus on advanced chip packaging position it for healthy double-digit revenue growth in the coming years [9][11] - The stock is currently trading at an attractive valuation of 24 times forward earnings, below the Nasdaq-100 index's multiple of 30, making it a potentially good investment [12] Group 3: Twilio - Twilio is experiencing growth due to increased spending on generative AI services and software, with Gartner estimating a 119% rise to nearly $65 billion by 2025 [13] - The company's APIs facilitate customer communication across various channels, and its AI tools enhance customer service and marketing efforts [14] - Twilio reported a 57% year-over-year increase in large communications deals and a 10% rise in active customer accounts [15] - The dollar-based net expansion rate improved by 5 percentage points to 108%, indicating increased spending from existing customers [16] - Twilio's organic revenue growth estimate for 2025 has been raised by 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a positive growth outlook [16] - The stock is trading at 3 times sales, slightly below the S&P 500's sales multiple, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [19]