Core Viewpoints - The transportation industry is experiencing a decline in passenger flight volumes following the National Day holiday, with overall and domestic flight volumes down by 0.6% week-on-week, but still above 2019 levels [1][3] - The implementation of reciprocal port fees between China and the US is expected to impact over 40% of shipping capacity, with Chinese shipping companies being the most affected [2] Shipping Industry - The upcoming US port fee measures will take effect on October 14, prompting China to respond with special port fees for US vessels [2] - Different shipping segments will experience varying impacts, with container shipping likely facing the least disruption, while oil and dry bulk shipping will be more significantly affected [2] - Short-term price fluctuations may occur due to initial policy confusion, but major container shipping companies have committed to not raising prices to maintain competitiveness [2] - Oil shipping rates are expected to perform strongly in the short to medium term due to seasonal effects and recent geopolitical developments [2] Aviation Industry - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased post-holiday, but remain above 2019 levels, indicating a recovery trend [3] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class is stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [3] - The domestic aviation market is expected to continue improving in supply-demand dynamics, with ticket prices likely stabilizing [3][4] Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases in the express delivery sector, with most regions now participating in this trend [4] - The industry is expected to see improved profitability in the fourth quarter due to reduced competition and better regulatory balance [4] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like SF Express and the Tongda system, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing policy changes [4][5]

Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in oil shipping rates due to reduced holiday shipments, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes are rebounding [3] - Shenzhen has introduced detailed policies to support low-altitude economic development, with international flight routes expected to resume during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [3] - China's express delivery volume is projected to reach 1.5 trillion packages 37 days earlier than expected in 2025, with YTO Express signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Huizhou City [3] Shipping Sector - The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) was reported at 1407.48 points on October 9, down 26.2% from September 25 [3] - VLCC market activity has cooled significantly post-holiday, with total transaction volumes well below weekly averages [3] - The market for transatlantic and Gulf of Mexico routes has also seen a decline in shipping rates, with a temporary stabilization in rates observed as post-holiday shipping resumes [3] - On October 10, the market rate for shipping from Shanghai to European ports was $1,068 per TEU, up 10.0% from the previous period [3] - Rates for shipping from Shanghai to the West and East coasts of the U.S. were $1,468 per FEU and $2,452 per FEU, reflecting increases of 0.5% and 2.8% respectively [3] Aviation Sector - Shenzhen's transportation bureau has released measures to support the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy, effective from October 9, 2025, to December 31, 2026 [3] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, it is expected that 19.138 million passengers will be transported by civil aviation, with a daily average of 2.392 million, marking a 3.2% year-on-year increase [3] - International airlines are projected to operate over 2,000 international passenger flights daily, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [3] Logistics and New Transportation Models - As of October 11, 2025, China's express delivery volume is expected to exceed 1.5 trillion packages, achieving this goal 37 days ahead of schedule compared to 2024 [3] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the Huizhou Municipal Government and YTO Express for the construction of a supply chain hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] Industry Trends - The Baltic Air Freight Index has shown a month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decline [5] - The domestic shipping index has risen, along with dry bulk shipping rates [5] - In August 2025, express delivery volume increased by 12.29% year-on-year, with revenue up by 4.24% [5] - The average number of international flights in the first week of October 2025 was 1,940, a slight decrease of 0.16% month-on-month but an increase of 13.44% year-on-year [5] - From September 29 to October 5, the number of freight trucks on national highways was 44.137 million, a decrease of 27.55% month-on-month [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies in the equipment and manufacturing export chain are recommended for attention, including COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [6] - Opportunities related to transportation demand driven by hydropower station construction in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River are highlighted, with a focus on Sichuan Chengyu, Chongqing Port, and Fulimin Transportation [7] - Investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy are suggested, particularly in CITIC Offshore Helicopter [7] - The highway and railway sectors are also recommended for investment, including Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [7] - The cruise and ferry sectors are noted for potential investment opportunities, with a focus on Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [8] - E-commerce and express delivery sectors are highlighted, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [8] - Investment opportunities in the aviation industry are suggested, focusing on Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a slowdown in holiday shipments and a decline in crude oil shipping rates, while container shipping rates for long-distance routes have rebounded [3][14] - Shenzhen has introduced detailed policies to support low-altitude economic development, and international flight routes have resumed during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [3][16] - China's express delivery volume reached 150 billion packages ahead of schedule, with strategic cooperation agreements signed between YTO Express and Huizhou [3][23] Summary by Sections Industry Hotspot Events - Holiday shipments have slowed, leading to a drop in crude oil shipping rates, while container shipping rates for long-distance routes have rebounded. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) was reported at 1407.48 points, down 26.2% from September 25 [3][14] - Shenzhen's transportation bureau released measures to support low-altitude economic development, effective from October 9, 2025, to December 31, 2026. During the holiday, civil aviation transported 19.138 million passengers, with an average of 2.392 million passengers per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][16][18] - As of October 11, 2025, China's express delivery volume surpassed 150 billion packages, achieving this goal 37 days ahead of schedule compared to 2024. A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the Huizhou government and YTO Express [3][23][24] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 4621.00 points, down 5.3% year-on-year but up 1.3% month-on-month [28] - In September 2025, domestic cargo flights increased by 3.05% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 15.86% year-on-year [33] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1160.42 points, up 4.12% week-on-week but down 43.74% year-on-year [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing industrial product export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - It also highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - The report advises attention to the road and rail sector, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Anhui Expressway [4][5]

Core Insights - Hohhot Airport achieved a record passenger throughput of 299,000 in September 2025, marking the highest monthly figure since its opening, indicating strong development momentum [1] - The airport's flight operation efficiency improved significantly, with a departure seat occupancy rate of 90.8%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting a robust market demand [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - In September, Hohhot Airport operated 36 domestic routes and 3 international and regional routes, collaborating with 25 airlines and covering 34 cities, providing strong aviation support for local economic and tourism development [1] - The airport successfully maintained several popular seasonal routes, including those operated by Air China and Spring Airlines, effectively bridging the gap between peak and off-peak travel seasons [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [3][5]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see performance recovery due to the "anti-involution" policies, while the mutual port fees imposed by China and the U.S. are likely to drive shipping rates upward [1][2]. - The shipping industry is facing mixed impacts from the U.S. port fee measures, with over 40% of shipping capacity affected by U.S. fees, while the impact on Chinese shipping capacity is significantly lower [1][20]. - The aviation sector is projected to experience a gradual recovery in ticket prices and profitability as the domestic passenger market continues to optimize supply and demand dynamics [2][34]. - The express delivery industry is witnessing a significant price increase across major production areas, with expectations for this trend to continue through the end of the year [2][43]. Shipping Sector Summary - The implementation of mutual port fees between China and the U.S. is expected to create short-term price volatility, particularly affecting oil and dry bulk shipping more than container shipping [1][20]. - The oil shipping rates have shown a significant increase recently, with VLCC shipping rates rising due to concerns over port congestion and supply chain efficiency [1][20]. - The overall impact of the mutual port fees on shipping rates is limited, but initial chaos from policy implementation may lead to fluctuations [20][21]. Aviation Sector Summary - Domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly post-holiday, but overall traffic remains above 2019 levels [2][33]. - The average domestic ticket price has remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase [2][34]. - The aviation market is expected to see continued improvement in profitability as supply-demand gaps narrow [34]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases across approximately 90% of the express delivery volume in China, with expectations for sustained price stability [2][43]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the express delivery sector during the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand [2][43]. - Major express companies are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, with specific recommendations for companies like SF Express and ZTO Express [5][54]. Key Company Ratings and Predictions - COSCO Shipping Energy: Outperform, 2025E PE of 12.2 [6]. - SF Express: Outperform, 2025E PE of 17.4, with expected growth of 15-20% in 2026 [6][54]. - ZTO Express: Outperform, with a focus on long-term value and stable returns [5][54].

这个十一，坐飞机的和不坐飞机的都沉默了。 作为2025年最后一个假期、也是全年最长节假日，长达八天的"超级黄金周"极大的激发了旅行需求。但在选择哪一种出行方式上，却让人犯了难。 2023年和2024年国庆，机票价格大跳水，"没出发就已亏了数千元"让不少旅客心有余悸。但今年，机票价格却"涨疯了"。 根据航班管家数据，截至9月28日，2025年国庆假期预售机票价格，即裸票价为804元，同比2024年736元上涨9.2%。 | 截至9月28日均价 | 指标 | | | VS同周期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2019年 | 裸票价 817 | 2024年 736 | 2025年 804 | 25VS24 9.2% | 25VS19 -1.6% 数据来源: 航班管家DAST | | 2025年国庆假期预售机票价格监测及同比 | | | | | | 现实是，今年国庆黄金周国内机票尽管出现上涨，但远没有到盈亏平衡点，民航业仍困在了以价换量、旺丁不旺财的收益困境。 不过，在这之中也有一个例外——春秋航空(601021.SH)，这家以"低票价、高效率"著称的廉航，却 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The shipping and shipbuilding industry is poised for historical opportunities due to China's countermeasures against the U.S. shipping fees, which may lead to non-linear price increases in the short term and a reduction in available vessels in the medium term [19][20] - The report highlights the potential for a surge in shipbuilding orders if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted from tariffs, and the implications of U.S.-China negotiations on the industry [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.09%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60 percentage points, with the road freight sector showing the highest increase of 3.04% [4][5] - Shipping data indicates that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China remained stable, while the Shanghai export container freight index rose by 4.12% [4][5] 2. Sub-industry Weekly Insights - The shipping and shipbuilding sector is expected to benefit from China's recent regulatory changes, which impose special port fees on U.S. vessels, potentially leading to increased operational costs for U.S. shipping companies [20][21] - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding, as they may benefit from these developments [19] 3. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including China Shipping (603167.SH) with a projected dividend yield of 10.92% and Daqin Railway (601006.SH) with a yield of 3.75% [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend yields as a factor for investment decisions in the transportation sector [17] 4. ETF Size Changes - The report provides data on the changes in the size of various ETFs related to the transportation sector, indicating a general trend of growth in assets under management [13][14] 5. Potential Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the shipping sector, particularly oil tankers and dry bulk carriers, may present significant investment opportunities due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes [19][20] - Companies such as China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of these market dynamics [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the transportation industry, highlighting potential rebound opportunities in various sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of shipping rates post-holiday, the impact of US-China tariff disputes on shipping prices, and the potential for price recovery in the aviation sector due to increased travel demand [1][14]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in infrastructure and logistics, particularly in companies with attractive dividend yields and stable earnings [16][18]. Shipping - Post-holiday shipping rates have shown recovery, with the SCFI for the US East route increasing by 2.8% to $2452/FEU, and the European route rising by 10% to $1068/TEU [12]. - The report notes that the US-China tariff disputes are causing short-term fluctuations in shipping rates, particularly affecting oil tankers [14]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy due to expected benefits from these market dynamics [14]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that highway stocks have fallen to a dividend yield of over 5%, suggesting potential for a rebound if market sentiment shifts [16]. - Weekly data shows a 27.6% decrease in truck traffic, while rail freight increased by 0.95% [15][16]. - Key recommended stocks include China Merchants Highway, Anhui Expressway, and Qingdao Port [16]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a stable growth rate, with a 12.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in August 2025 [17]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy that is expected to ease price competition and improve valuations in the sector [18]. - Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, with a focus on price performance during the peak season [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is seeing a recovery in passenger numbers, with a 3.9% year-on-year increase during the holiday period [19]. - The report suggests that the low base effect in Q4 could lead to price recovery opportunities for airlines [19]. - Recommended airlines include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [19]. Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes and stable short-haul freight rates [21]. - The report notes that the logistics market is benefiting from increased demand and improved operational efficiencies [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping and shipbuilding industry, highlighting historical opportunities due to China's countermeasures against the U.S. [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that U.S. shipping companies have a minimal global market share, but U.S.-listed companies and those with over 25% U.S. ownership are significantly impacted. The report suggests that if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted, there could be a surge in orders for Chinese vessels [3]. - Short-term disruptions are expected to lead to non-linear increases in shipping rates, with a decrease in available vessels and efficiency, benefiting oil and bulk shipping rates [3]. - The report recommends specific companies in the shipping sector, such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, while also highlighting the potential for increased demand in the shipbuilding sector [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.09%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.60 percentage points. The road freight sector saw the highest increase at 3.04% [4]. - The report notes that the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates increased by 31% week-on-week, reaching $83,684 per day, driven by seasonal demand and market disruptions [3]. Oil and Bulk Shipping - The VLCC rates experienced a significant rise, with a daily increase of over 40% due to market disturbances and seasonal demand [3]. - The report indicates that the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose by 1.8% week-on-week, reflecting strong performance in the bulk shipping sector [3]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with expectations for significant improvements in airline profitability, recommending several airlines for investment [3]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for the industry's future performance [3]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with rail freight increasing by 0.95% week-on-week [3]. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, highlighting companies with strong dividend yields and expected profit growth [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].