Investment Rating - The report indicates a constructive outlook on China's economic recovery, with institutional investors adding cyclical risks and cutting defensive names during Q1 2025 [4][32]. Core Insights - Institutional investors, including domestic mutual funds and northbound funds, have shown a preference for sectors such as technology, healthcare, and financials, while also responding to trade tensions by increasing allocations to self-sufficient tech names [2][12][25]. - The national team has invested significantly in the AI value chain and new energy sectors, while individual investors remain the largest participants in the A-share market [5][39]. - Southbound fund inflows reached record levels, with estimates suggesting further inflows could total approximately RMB300 billion by the end of 2025 [6][11]. Summary by Sections Trade Tensions and Institutional Actions - Institutional investors took pre-emptive actions in response to trade tensions, increasing their positions in tech self-sufficient names by 1.3 percentage points for domestic mutual funds and 0.8 percentage points for northbound funds during Q1 2025 [12][2]. - Both groups of investors maintained over 20% allocation to "going global" names, indicating a positive long-term outlook despite recent reductions [13][2]. Divergence in Investment Preferences - Domestic mutual funds were more optimistic about food & beverage and healthcare sectors, while northbound funds favored banks with stable asset quality [3][25]. - In the electronics industry, domestic mutual funds focused on supply chain localization, whereas northbound funds preferred computing hardware names [26][25]. Economic Outlook - China's economy showed strong growth in Q1 2025, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% and positive retail sales growth [32]. - Both domestic and northbound funds increased exposure to pro-cyclical industries, reflecting confidence in economic recovery [32][33]. National Team and Market Participation - The national team holds RMB4.0 trillion in A-share stocks and RMB1.0 trillion in stock ETFs, accounting for 6.4% of the A-share floatable market cap [39][44]. - Financials dominate the national team's holdings, comprising 85.3% of their portfolio [45][39]. Southbound Fund Flows - Southbound net inflows reached RMB410.5 billion in Q1 2025, with mutual funds contributing approximately 16% and insurance funds about 25% [6][51]. - The report estimates that mutual funds' holdings in HK-listed stocks increased by 26.7% during Q1 2025, reflecting strong market performance [52][53].

ab 9 May 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy 1Q25 investor positioning update - investors turned less underweight overall Divergent views among Asia/Global/EM mandated funds International investors have reduced their China underweight position from -1.9% to - 1.5% in 1Q25 likely cheered by the DeepSeek launch. Interestingly, Asia-mandated funds turned overweight (from underweight previously) and global funds reduced their underweight position, while EM funds have maintained their underweight position ...

May 5, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Flows & Positioning Guide In the week ended April 30, 2025, EM equity funds recorded outflows of US$1.2bn. In March, GEM long-only managers increased overweights in Brazil and Korea, reduced underweight in China, funded by adding to India underweight and cutting South Africa overweight. EM weekly flows – Outflows from region led by China but partially offset by India, Brazil, Korea and Taiwan: For the past week (ended April 30, 2025), EM equity ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Chinese equities experienced a significant outflow of US$5.3 billion from foreign long-only funds in April, reversing a two-month inflow trend since February [11] - The outflow was primarily driven by passive funds, which saw outflows of US$3.7 billion, and active funds, which had outflows of US$1.6 billion [11] - Cumulative foreign passive inflows since October 2022 have reverted to levels similar to late February 2025, with April outflows reversing approximately 50% of the inflows from March 2025 [11] - Active fund managers increased their underweight positions in China, with global funds down 1.3 percentage points, AxJ funds down 2.0 percentage points, and EM funds down 3.2 percentage points [11] - Domestic passive funds targeting China A-shares recorded a massive inflow of US$27 billion in April, marking the highest monthly inflow since 2024 [11] - The Southbound Stock Connect program maintained strong momentum with US$21 billion in April, bringing the net inflow for the first four months of 2025 to US$77 billion [11] Fund Flows - In April, foreign domiciled funds saw a total outflow of US$5.3 billion, with passive funds contributing US$3.7 billion and active funds contributing US$1.6 billion [11] - The report indicates that the northbound net flow data was terminated as of August 19, 2024, and suggests using foreign passive funds flow to CSI 300 as a proxy for historical northbound net flow [13] - As of April 30, 2025, US$0.4 billion in short interest was added in China offshore/HK equities, primarily in the Energy and Industrials sectors [13] Sector and Company Positioning - Active fund managers increased their positions in Household & Personal Products while reducing their holdings in Media & Entertainment and Insurance [11] - The most added companies by active fund managers included Alibaba, BYD, Trip.com, and China Construction Bank, while Tencent and Xiaomi were the most trimmed [11] - The report highlights that the top holdings among long-only EM and China active managers include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba Group, and Meituan, with notable changes in their active weights [42]

在企业、资本和政府的大力支持下，人形机器人行业正在迅 速发展。我们预计到2050年全球市场规模将达到5万亿美元， 在本报告中，我们探讨了产业链上的最佳商业模式和投资机 会。 要点 全球人形机器人潜在市场规模 – 到2050年将达到5 万亿美元：我们的美国研究团队建立了摩根士丹利 的全球人形机器人TAM模型，该模型预测全球人形 机器人市场将超过全球汽车行业。我们预计到2050 年全球人形机器人销售额将达到 4.7 万亿美元，大 概是全球 20 家最大汽车厂商 2024 年总收入的两 倍，而这一数字在未来25年内很可能会大幅减少。 April 30, 2025 06:46 AM GMT 人形机器人 价值5万亿美元的全球市场 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is excerpted from the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both JD and Meituan, indicating favorable risk-reward scenarios for investors [1][10][13]. Core Insights - JD's food delivery service has ramped up quickly, achieving 10 million daily orders within two months, which is significant compared to Meituan's approximately 65 million daily orders [1][12]. - The report outlines three potential scenarios for JD's future in the food delivery market, ranging from losing scale due to subsidy pullbacks to becoming the second-largest player [1][9][18]. - Meituan is expected to maintain its leadership in food delivery due to its extensive merchant coverage and established user base [10][11]. Summary by Sections JD's Market Entry and Performance - JD's food delivery service has seen rapid growth, doubling its daily orders from 5 million to 10 million in a short period [12][28]. - The company has implemented a Rmb10 billion subsidy program to attract users and has a zero-commission policy for new merchants [28][29]. - JD's long-term commitment to food delivery is supported by strategic investments and management changes [2][10]. Competitive Landscape - The food delivery market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with Meituan and Ele.me responding to JD's entry with their own competitive strategies [2][29]. - Meituan's unique competitive advantages include its large local service merchant network and a strong in-house delivery system [10][11]. - The report anticipates that the competitive dynamics will evolve as JD and Alibaba continue to invest in their food delivery operations [7][10]. Financial Projections and Valuations - The report projects significant upside potential for both JD and Meituan, with target price increases of 56% for Meituan and 53% for JD over the next 12 months [1][26]. - JD's potential EBIT impact varies across scenarios, with estimates ranging from Rmb7 billion to Rmb14 billion depending on market performance [8][9][18]. - Meituan's food delivery is valued at HK$83 per share, based on projected daily orders and EBIT per order [11][60]. Scenario Analysis - Scenario 1 suggests JD could shrink to below 5 million daily orders if subsidies are removed, leading to a significant EBIT impact [9][15]. - Scenario 2 maintains JD's order volume at 8-12 million per day, resulting in a moderate EBIT drag [9][17]. - Scenario 3 envisions JD becoming the second-largest player with daily orders reaching approximately 20 million, significantly impacting both JD and Meituan's EBIT [8][19]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report highlights the ongoing competition and strategic responses from Meituan and Ele.me, indicating a need for continuous adaptation in the market [2][29]. - JD's entry into food delivery is expected to shift the competitive landscape, with implications for pricing and market share among the key players [1][7][10].

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 Southbound flow forecast from US$75 billion to US$110 billion, indicating a positive investment outlook for Southbound flows [4][39][41]. Core Insights - Southbound investors have shown strong net buying activity, with US$78 billion in net purchases year-to-date, representing 75% of the expected full-year inflows for 2024 [1][9]. - The performance of the Hong Kong market is increasingly correlated with Southbound flows, suggesting that these investors are gaining pricing power [2][11]. - The report identifies key drivers for Southbound inflows, including attractive H-share profiles, increased domestic institutional investment, and hedging demand against potential RMB depreciation [10][41]. Summary by Sections Southbound Flows and Market Impact - Southbound investors currently hold US$577 billion of HK-listed stocks, accounting for 13% of the market cap of eligible stocks, up from 10% a year ago [2][11]. - The turnover contribution from Southbound investors has increased from 17% in 2024 to 21% year-to-date [2][11]. - The report notes that the Southbound flows have become a significant influence on the Hong Kong market, with a notable increase in ownership and turnover [11][12]. Investor Composition - Both onshore retail and institutional investors are participating in Southbound trading, with institutional investors estimated to account for at least half of the Southbound ownership [3][25]. - Domestic mutual funds have raised their equity allocation to historical highs, contributing to the Southbound inflows [28][39]. Forecast and Drivers - The report forecasts that Southbound flows could reach US$110 billion in 2025, driven by factors such as the attractiveness of H-shares, increased dual-primary listings, and potential dividend tax exemptions for Southbound investors [4][39][43]. - The report highlights that the home-coming of US-listed Chinese companies could further boost Southbound buying, with Alibaba's dual-primary listing serving as a precedent [41][50]. Investment Opportunities - A refreshed Southbound Favorite Portfolio includes 50 companies identified for their scarcity value, valuation discounts, and high sensitivity to Southbound flows, expected to outperform if inflows remain strong [5][49]. - The report also screens for 33 ADRs eligible for HK dual-primary listing, which may benefit from Southbound buying post-inclusion [5][50].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Internet sector** and its intersection with **AI technology** development, particularly in the context of gaming and content creation [7][11][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Faster AI Development in China**: The AI application layer is expected to develop more rapidly in China than in the West due to a large, culturally homogenous user base and diverse commercial intents on Chinese Internet platforms [7][12][13]. 2. **User Engagement Trends**: Internet users in China are anticipated to leverage AI for increased productivity and content consumption, leading to a rise in short-form video engagement [3][42]. 3. **Content Quality vs. Quantity**: The proliferation of AI-generated content may lead to a bifurcation in media, emphasizing the importance of quality storytelling and emotional connection with creators [4][23]. 4. **AI's Role in E-commerce**: AI is expected to enhance user experiences by streamlining the purchasing process and automating fulfillment, potentially transforming how consumers interact with e-commerce platforms [19][45]. 5. **Long-term Media Consumption**: The expectation is that AI will lead to more media consumption, with a notable shift towards short-form video platforms, which have seen significant growth in user engagement [42][49]. Important but Overlooked Aspects 1. **Cultural Factors**: The unique "996" work culture in China may accelerate the iteration of AI applications, contributing to faster adoption and development [13]. 2. **Trust in AI**: There is a higher level of trust in AI among Chinese users compared to their Western counterparts, which may facilitate quicker adoption of AI technologies [31][34]. 3. **Walled Gardens**: The structure of China's Internet, characterized by walled gardens, reduces the risk of disruption from AI agents, allowing major platforms to maintain their roles [33][44]. 4. **Human Touch in AI Era**: As AI automates many tasks, the value of human interaction and creativity may become a premium commodity, contrasting with the abundance of AI-generated content [4][23][52]. Valuation and Investment Implications 1. **Positive Outlook for China Internet Stocks**: Companies like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba are highlighted as top picks due to their strong positions in the evolving AI landscape [9][10]. 2. **Valuation Comparisons**: The valuation multiples for Chinese Internet companies are approaching those of their US counterparts, indicating a potential for growth [10][12]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The medium-term outlook for the sector remains constructive, despite short-term volatility in stock prices [9][10]. Conclusion - The conference call presents a comprehensive view of the future of AI in the China Internet sector, emphasizing rapid development, changing user behaviors, and the importance of quality content amidst an influx of AI-generated material. The investment landscape appears promising, with key players positioned to benefit from these trends.

Michael Burry, the famed ‘Big Short’ investor, earned the admiration of investors all over the world by predicting and profiting off the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.Since then, he has remained active through his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. While his earlier calls in recent years, such as the ill-timed short on semiconductors and a bearish stance on the S&P 500, missed the mark, Burry’s pivot to China appears to be paying off in 2025.Rather than building a major long position in the U.S. market, he ...

Core Viewpoint - Achieving "steady growth" in China requires a combination of macroeconomic, industry, and institutional policy measures, with a gradual shift from macro policies to industry and reform policies for sustainable growth [1][11]. Macroeconomic Policies - The 2025 government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and a fiscal deficit rate raised to 4%, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy stance and continued moderate monetary policy [3]. - The focus on total factor productivity improvement is crucial for maintaining steady growth, emphasizing the need for continuous enhancement of enterprise competitiveness and rapid industrial upgrades to avoid falling into "middle-income traps" [3][5]. Industry Policies - The report highlights the dual approach of developing new productive forces and upgrading traditional industries, with industry upgrades becoming a key policy focus after stabilizing overall demand [3][11]. - Innovation is identified as the key to overcoming challenges posed by rising costs, demographic changes, and international market conditions, necessitating a shift from factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth [5][6]. Innovation Capability - The need to enhance innovation capability is underscored, as past growth relied on low-cost advantages, while future growth must depend on original inventions and discoveries [6][8]. - China is positioned to leverage the Fourth Industrial Revolution, with significant advancements in digital economy and artificial intelligence, providing opportunities for sustained economic growth [6]. Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises contribute over 70% to China's innovation, making their support essential for fostering innovation [9]. - Recent government policies aim to bolster private enterprises' confidence and participation in major national projects, emphasizing the importance of effective implementation of these policies [9][12]. Sustainable Growth Policies - A combination of macro, industry, and reform policies is necessary for achieving sustainable growth, with a focus on addressing structural risks in key industries and nurturing new growth drivers [11][12]. - The government should create a conducive environment for innovation, particularly by supporting private enterprises and ensuring effective market and government roles [12].