Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings Inc. is identified as a high-risk, high-reward growth stock, with a recent target price reduction by Mizuho to $95 from $114, while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing an unjustified selloff and two positive catalysts: a partnership with Intuit and conservative FY2026 guidance [1][2]. Group 1: Partnership with Intuit - On February 2, Affirm announced a multi-year exclusive partnership with Intuit, making Affirm the built-in pay-over-time solution in QuickBooks Payments, which provides access to millions of small and mid-market businesses with over $2 trillion in invoices annually [2]. - The integration of Affirm into QuickBooks Payments is expected to offer businesses a transparent way to provide customers with payment options while ensuring businesses receive payments upfront [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Affirm's Q2 FY2026 earnings report revealed a 36% year-over-year growth in gross merchandise volume, reaching $13.8 billion, and a 30% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.1 billion [2][3]. - Active consumers increased by 23% year-over-year to 25.8 million, and transactions per active customer grew by 20% year-over-year to 6.4 times [2]. Group 3: Future Revenue Guidance - For Q3 FY2026, Affirm expects revenue between $0.97 billion and $1.00 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth rate of 23.9% to 27.7% [3]. - For Q4 FY2026, the revenue guidance is set between $1.06 billion and $1.09 billion, suggesting a year-over-year growth rate of 21.0% to 24.4% [3]. Group 4: Company Overview - Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a payment network across Canada, the United States, and internationally, offering a consumer-focused app, point-of-sale payment solutions, and merchant commerce solutions [4].

市场近期对人工智能将颠覆传统软件行业的恐慌情绪导致相关板块遭受重创，但来自华尔街主流机构的最新分析指出，这种抛售可能被严重夸大 了。汇丰银行在最新的报告中驳斥了"AI取代软件"的论调，认为这一辩论本身存在逻辑缺陷，软件供应商正在通过嵌入AI技术来扩展其总潜在市 场（TAM），而非被其取代。 此次市场震荡中，软件与服务板块面临了最严峻的估值下调。根据摩根士丹利的数据，市场抛售不仅剧烈而且缺乏区分度，大量基本面稳健、商 业模式优质的公司遭到无差别打击。该行指出，部分被市场误判为"受AI干扰"的企业，实际上正面临着巨大的估值修复机会。 与此同时，高盛的数据显示，软件行业的估值已经经历了剧烈的修正。仅仅一年前，软件行业曾以51倍的市盈率（P/E）位居股市之首，而如今其 市盈率已降至27倍，不仅不再是最昂贵的行业，甚至低于媒体、汽车、半导体和资本货物等板块。这表明市场对AI负面影响的定价可能已过度反 应。 机构普遍认为，AI对企业的初期影响更多体现在成本效率而非收入增长上。摩根士丹利调查显示，74%至90%的分析师认为AI将在未来12至24个 月内通过成本节约推动利润率提升，而仅有少数预计会带来营收的显著加速。这意味着 ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by unease and confusion among investors despite stronger economic data [1] - Investors are beginning to realize that AI advancements may lead to significant job impacts, as evidenced by major layoffs at companies like Amazon [2][3] Impact of AI on Employment - There is a growing awareness that AI will affect human capital contributions to GDP, leading to concerns about job security [2][4] - This shift is seen as part of a broader "creative destruction" process inherent in capitalism, where old methods are replaced by new technologies [4][5] Sector Rotation - The recent rotation out of software and financials is viewed as overblown, although it reflects a genuine concern about the future of these sectors [6][11] - Software companies that integrate AI components are seen as more viable investments, with examples like Intuit being highlighted for their strategic partnerships with AI firms [8][10] Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its focus towards energy investments, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and the rise of data centers, while also maintaining a long-term view on commodities like gold and silver [12][13] - A frontier fund specializing in technologies such as AI, robotics, quantum computing, and blockchain is being promoted as a long-term investment opportunity, despite its volatility [15][16] Market Forecast - The market is expected to experience a pullback of 5-10% in the first quarter, with a potential turnaround in the latter half of the year [18][19] - The anticipated market increase is modest, projected at 5-7%, with significant volatility expected in the interim [19] Buying Opportunities - There is a belief that current software stocks are oversold, presenting buying opportunities for long-term investors [20][21] - Investors are advised to be contrarian and avoid following the crowd, as behavioral selling often leads to poor investment decisions [21] Risk Management - Investors are encouraged to assess their risk tolerance, especially in a volatile market environment, and consider more stable investments if necessary [22][23] - The transition to new technologies is expected to take time, with a stabilization period projected over the next five years [24]

Core Viewpoint - The market is mispricing Intuit's role as a beneficiary of AI advancements, leading to a recommendation to buy its stock [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Intuit is transitioning from a tool provider to a more integrated service leveraging its proprietary data [1]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in AI, which could enhance its growth potential [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on identifying long-term compounding opportunities and future industry leaders [1]. - The approach is influenced by studies of renowned investors, emphasizing growth and durable business models [1].

Core Insights - Intuit Inc. is a leading financial software company known for products like TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Mint, serving individuals, small businesses, and accountants in tax preparation, accounting, and personal finance management [1] - BMO Capital has set a new price target for Intuit at $624, indicating a potential increase of 42.63% from the current stock price of $437.50, attributed to recent innovations in ecommerce tools by Intuit Mailchimp [2][6] - Intuit Mailchimp's new ecommerce tools utilize data, automation, and artificial intelligence to enhance marketing strategies, linking marketing campaigns directly to revenue generation [3][6] Stock Performance - Intuit's current stock price is $437.50, reflecting a decrease of $6.27 or approximately -1.41% today, with fluctuations between $431 and $441.16 [4] - Over the past year, Intuit's stock reached a peak of $813.70 and a trough of $411.11, with a market capitalization of around $121.8 billion [4] - Today's trading volume for Intuit is 3,716,493 shares, indicating active market participation despite the recent dip in stock price [5]

I've been warning investors for quite some time that even though Intuit's business is extraordinary, investing at such a valuation comes with extreme downsideI aim to invest in companies with perfect qualitative attributes, buy them at an attractive price based on fundamentals, and hold them forever. I hope to publish articles covering such companies approximately 3 times per week, with extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates.I manage a concentrated portfolio targeted at avoiding losers and maxi ...

I've been warning investors for quite some time that even though Intuit's business is extraordinary, investing at such a valuation comes with extreme downsideI aim to invest in companies with perfect qualitative attributes, buy them at an attractive price based on fundamentals, and hold them forever. I hope to publish articles covering such companies approximately 3 times per week, with extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates.I manage a concentrated portfolio targeted at avoiding losers and maxi ...

Core Insights - Workday's CEO Carl Eschenbach is stepping down, with cofounder Aneel Bhusri taking over the role, marking Bhusri's return to leadership after previously serving as CEO multiple times [1][3] - The company recently laid off approximately 400 employees, representing about 2% of its workforce, to realign resources with its priorities [1][3] - Workday's shares have declined roughly 6% on the day of the announcement and are down about 43% compared to a year ago [2] Leadership Transition - Aneel Bhusri has a long history with Workday, having served as co-CEO and CEO in various capacities from 2009 to 2024 [3] - Bhusri's leadership is expected to guide Workday through a transformative period influenced by advancements in AI, as noted by Mark Hawkins, the vice chair [2] Layoff Context - The recent layoffs follow a larger round of layoffs last year, which were also attributed to the need for strategic investment in areas like AI [4] - Workday had over 20,400 employees as of January 31, 2025, indicating a significant workforce size prior to the layoffs [4] Market Reaction - The software sector, including Workday, has faced stock price declines following the introduction of new AI tools by competitors, such as Anthropic's Claude Cowork plugin [4] - Eschenbach previously expressed confidence in Workday's position in the AI landscape, suggesting that the company is well-equipped to leverage AI advancements rather than be hindered by them [5]

Core Viewpoint - Intuit (INTU) has experienced a significant decline of approximately 45% since July, primarily driven by a broader software sell-off that intensified from November 2025 [1] Company Performance - The decline in Intuit's stock price has been notable, with the majority of the drop occurring in the latter part of 2025 [1] Market Trends - The software sector is currently facing a sell-off, impacting various companies, including Intuit [1]

Core Viewpoint - Intuit (INTU) has experienced a significant decline of approximately 45% since July 2025, primarily driven by a broader software sell-off that intensified in November 2025 [1] Company Analysis - The decline in Intuit's stock price reflects broader market trends affecting the software industry, indicating potential challenges in the sector [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings in evaluating investment opportunities within the software industry [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on uncovering high-growth investment opportunities through rigorous financial modeling and quantitative research [1] - The approach combines risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, aiming to provide actionable insights for investors [1]