Carlyle is now the frontrunner to buy BASF’s coatings business after KPS Capital exited the bid https://t.co/W2xQoQaQBh ...

Core Insights - Quantum computing is emerging as a potentially lucrative investment opportunity, leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics to outperform traditional supercomputers [1][2] Company Summaries 1. IonQ - IonQ has a market cap of $20 billion, with its stock increasing over 6 times in the past year [3] - The company achieved a record algorithmic qubit score of AQ 64, allowing evaluation of over 18 quintillion possible outcomes simultaneously [4] - IonQ has secured significant customers, including AstraZeneca, General Dynamics, and the United States Air Force [5] - The company is expanding through acquisitions, including Lightsynq, Capella, Oxford Ionics, and plans to acquire Vector Atomic [6] 2. Rigetti Computing - Rigetti's stock has increased more than 38 times over the past year, outperforming IonQ [7] - The company focuses on superconducting technology and achieved a milestone by halving its previous best error rate with a 36-qubit system [8] - Rigetti has notable partnerships with the U.K.'s National Computing Centre, Fermilab, ADIA Lab, HSBC, Moody's, and Standard Chartered Bank [9] 3. D-Wave Quantum - D-Wave has a market cap of approximately $8.8 billion and has seen its stock rise over 2,500% in the last year [10] - As the first commercial quantum computing company, D-Wave utilizes quantum annealing to solve real-world problems, including applications in AI and optimization [11][12] - The company has a diverse customer base, including Accenture, BASF, and Mastercard [12]

Company Strategy - BASF 可能提前启动至少 40 亿欧元的股票回购计划[1] - 此举旨在提振公司股价[1] Industry Context - 整个化工行业正面临需求疲软的挑战[1]

Financial Targets and Capital Allocation - BASF confirms its financial targets and aims for shareholder distributions of at least €12 billion between 2025 and 2028, with an annual dividend of at least €2.25 per share[27, 28] - The company targets an EBITDA before special items of €10 billion to €12 billion in 2028, and free cash flow cumulatively exceeding €12 billion from 2025 to 2028[28, 45] - Capital expenditure (including intangibles) is expected to reduce to approximately €16 billion between 2025 and 2028, with over 50% allocated to growth regions, businesses, and the green transformation[31] Cost Savings and Efficiency - BASF is accelerating its cost savings programs, expecting €1.6 billion in annual cost savings by the end of 2025, with cumulative one-time costs of approximately €1.8 billion[37] - The company is implementing a €1 billion Ludwigshafen Cost Improvement Program by 2026[39] Portfolio Management - Core businesses EBITDA bsi 2024 target is €5.4 billion, with a 2028 target of ~€7 billion to ~€9 billion[12] - Standalone businesses EBITDA bsi 2024 target is €3.0 billion, with a 2028 target of ~€3.5 billion to ~€4 billion[12] - Agricultural Solutions aims for IPO readiness by 2027 for a minority share listing, with 2024 sales of €9.8 billion[25, 24] - Coatings business had 2024 sales of €4.3 billion, with a decision expected in Q4 2025 regarding strategic options for remaining activities[23, 20] - Environmental Catalyst and Metal Solutions (ECMS) will be kept longer, with cumulative cash flow of ~€4 billion expected between 2024 and 2030, and 2024 sales of €7.0 billion[16, 13] - Battery Materials sales in 2024 were €0.6 billion, with efforts to reduce fixed costs and capex[19, 17] Operational Improvements and Growth - The Zhanjiang Verbund site is on schedule and below budget, with a total capex budget of €8.7 billion from 2019 to 2028, and is expected to contribute €1.0 billion to €1.2 billion in EBITDA by 2030[53, 51] - BASF aims to streamline net working capital by setting cash flow targets per business, with continuous reduction since 2023[41, 42] - The company has reduced the number of senior executives by 10% and senior employees by 3,000 since 2024[65]

Core Insights - The Sherwin-Williams Company has completed the acquisition of BASF's Brazilian architectural paints business, Suvinil, which aligns with its long-term growth strategy [1][2] - Suvinil is a leading provider of architectural paints in Brazil, generating approximately $525 million in sales for the year ended December 31, 2024 [2] - The acquisition is expected to enhance Sherwin-Williams' presence in Latin America and provide industry-leading solutions for customers [2] Financial Impact - The purchase price reflects a low teens EBITDA multiple, with anticipated post-transaction synergies net of one-time costs [3] - Sherwin-Williams expects a low single-digit percentage increase in consolidated sales for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The company aims to maintain a net-debt to EBITDA ratio within the targeted range of 2.0 to 2.5 times by the end of 2025 [3] Company Overview - Sherwin-Williams, founded in 1866, is a global leader in the manufacture and sale of paint, coatings, and related products [4] - The company operates over 5,400 stores and branches, with products sold through various retail channels [4] - Sherwin-Williams' Performance Coatings Group provides engineered solutions for multiple markets in over 120 countries [4]

Chinese turbine maker Ming Yang hires a top executive at chemical giant BASF as its new European chief executive https://t.co/crc8KwDx5n ...

Summary of Global Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global chemical industry is expected to see an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in supply from 2024 to 2028 that will be lower than the period from 2020 to 2024 [1][22] - Anticipation of government measures to support a more significant recovery in the industry fundamentals starting from mid-2026 [1][25] Key Themes Discussed 1. **Global Supply and Demand Outlook** - The impact of potential "anti-involution" measures in China on global supply and demand dynamics is crucial [3][17] - The average CAGR for global benzene and C2-C6 capacity from 2024 to 2028 is projected to be between 1.0% to 6.4% if China does not close any capacity, and 0.8% to 4.0% if it does [20][22] 2. **Closure of Overseas Chemical Plants** - The closure of overseas chemical plants due to high production costs has reignited interest in the Chinese chemical sector [3][14] - The report emphasizes the need to assess the product exposure resulting from these closures [17] 3. **Profitability of Chinese Market Products** - The profitability levels of products in the Chinese market are under scrutiny, especially in light of the "anti-involution" measures [17][21] 4. **Import Substitution Process in China** - The ongoing process of import substitution in China is a significant factor influencing the market [17][21] Investment Recommendations - **China** - Wanhua Chemical's rating has been upgraded to Overweight (OW) with a target price of RMB 80, citing its higher potential for growth due to production increases and favorable policy impacts [26] - Rongsheng Petrochemical's target price has been raised to RMB 10.6, with expectations of improved earnings in Q3 2025 [26] - **Europe** - Akzo is favored, with a focus on companies like Syensqo, BASF, and AKE, all rated as Overweight [27][28] - **United States** - LyondellBasell is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity [26] - **India and Southeast Asia** - PTTGC and Petronas Chemicals are recommended due to their low-cost structures and focus on local markets [31] Market Dynamics - The A-share chemical sector has seen an average increase of approximately 10% since the announcement of the "anti-involution" policy on July 18, 2025, compared to a 9% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [21] - The report notes that while liquidity is ample, a more significant recovery in fundamentals is contingent on the effective execution of "anti-involution" measures or substantial demand improvements [21][25] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include ineffective supply-side reforms, worsening demand due to escalating trade tensions, and adverse inventory cycles [33] Conclusion - The global chemical industry is at a pivotal moment, with significant changes anticipated due to policy measures in China and shifts in global production dynamics. Investors are advised to closely monitor these developments for potential opportunities and risks in the sector [1][3][21]

Summary of Conference Call on Chemicals Sector Industry Overview - The focus of North American investors is on the Chemicals sector, particularly regarding earnings risk for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 EBITDA [1] - There is skepticism about the sector's ability to achieve top-line inflection and double-digit earnings growth in FY26 [1] Key Points Discussed 1. **Volume Development**: - Feedback from the Global Material Conference indicated that volumes in end markets and regions have not improved since the end of Q2 [1] - Order book visibility is approximately two weeks [1] 2. **Earnings Growth Concerns**: - Investors are worried about the consensus EBITDA growth of 10% year-on-year for FY26, especially in the absence of volume recovery in H2 2025 [1] - Potential drivers for earnings growth include the impact of German fiscal stimulus, the EU Chemical Action Plan, and petrochemical capacity [1] 3. **Path to Normalized Earnings**: - A tightening of upstream supply/demand is expected, likely by late 2027/28, which could be exacerbated by capacity closures [1] - Companies are expected to focus on self-help and portfolio improvement in the interim [1] 4. **Consolidation Potential**: - Investors inquired about the potential for consolidation in the sector due to liquidity decline for many companies over the past three years [1] - Concerns were raised about the sustainability of volume growth for Ingredients & Gases [1] Stocks of Focus - **Diversified and Specialty Subsector**: - Key stocks include Solvay (benefiting from Chinese capacity closures and rare earths), Syensqo (margin recovery and non-core asset disposals), and BASF (FY26 earnings risk and coatings disposal) [2] - Defensive nature and margin improvement potential of Gases were acknowledged, but concerns about over-ownership of Air Liquide and Linde by long-only investors were noted [2] - **Consumer Chemicals**: - Focus on DSM-Firmenich (ANH disposal announcement), Symrise (pet food OSG recovery), Croda (turnaround strategy), and Novonesis (sustaining ~7% OSG and margin expansion) [2] - Lack of investor interest in Akzo Nobel, Covestro, Givaudan, fertilizers, and most mid-cap names in the sector was observed [2] Financial Performance Insights - The Chemicals sector is down 1.8% year-to-date and down 8.3% on a 12-month basis [51] - Top performers year-to-date include Bayer (+49.3%), JMAT (+41.4%), and Umicore (+32.8%) [51] - Worst performers include Symrise (-20.9%), Victrex (-32.2%), and Synthomer (-62.7%) [51] Price Trends and Spreads - **Downstream Prices**: - pMDI prices remained flat, but spreads increased by 1% as Benzene prices decreased by 1% [44] - TDI prices are flat, with spreads up by 1% as Toluene prices decreased by 2% [44] - Polycarbonate prices and spreads remained flat, while acrylic acid prices and spreads also remained flat [45] - **Upstream Prices**: - Naphtha prices decreased by 1% in Asia and 14% in the US over the last week [47] - Ethylene prices increased by 1% in Asia but decreased by 1% in the US [47] - Propylene prices remained flat, while butadiene prices were also flat [48] Conclusion - The Chemicals sector faces significant challenges regarding earnings growth and volume recovery, with investor sentiment reflecting caution. Key stocks are under scrutiny, and the potential for consolidation may shape future dynamics in the industry.

Summary of Global Chemicals Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Global Chemicals** industry, particularly the impact of China's anti-involution measures and global supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector [1][3][10]. Key Themes and Insights 1. **Global Supply Growth Projections**: - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global supply from 2024 to 2028 is expected to be lower than from 2020 to 2024, with estimates of **3.1%** in a bear case (no Chinese closures) and **2.0%** in a bull case (all capacities over 20 years old closed) [1][21][52]. - The previous CAGR from 2020 to 2024 was **3.9%**, indicating a more disciplined supply growth moving forward [21][52]. 2. **Impact of China's Anti-Involution Measures**: - China's government is focusing on closing older capacities (over 20 years) to address oversupply issues in the refining and chemical markets [10][12]. - The anticipated recovery in the chemical sector is expected to be more meaningful from **mid-2026** onwards, contingent on the execution of these measures [13][23]. 3. **Investor Interest Reignited**: - The potential for anti-involution measures in China, combined with overseas chemical players closing plants due to high production costs, has rekindled investor interest in the chemical sector [3][10]. 4. **Product-Specific Capacity Growth**: - Capacity CAGRs for major products typically range from **1.0% to 6.4%** (without Chinese closures) and **0.8% to 4.0%** (with closures) [8][54]. - Specific products like ethylene and polyethylene are expected to see significant capacity additions in the upcoming years [65]. 5. **Profitability Trends**: - Major A-share chemical stocks have rallied approximately **10%** since the announcement of anti-involution measures on **July 18, 2025** [17]. - Despite a decline in profitability for major A-share companies in the first half of 2025, a seasonal recovery is expected in the second half [19][20]. Stock Recommendations - **China**: - Upgrade for **Wanhua** to Overweight (OW) with a price target of **Rmb80** due to expected benefits from volume growth and product spread expansion [25]. - Upgrade for **Rongsheng** to Equal-weight (EW) with a price target of **Rmb10.6**, anticipating quarterly earnings improvement [26]. - **Europe**: - Top pick is **Akzo**, with additional recommendations for **Syensqo**, **BASF**, and **AKE** [27][28]. - **India and Southeast Asia**: - Favorable outlook for **PTTGC** and **Petronas Chemicals** due to potential upside from China's anti-involution efforts [31]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include ineffective supply-side reforms, worsening demand due to trade tensions, and unfavorable inventory cycles [33]. Conclusion - The global chemicals industry is poised for a more disciplined growth phase, influenced by China's anti-involution measures and external market dynamics. The focus on closing older capacities and the potential for improved profitability in the coming years present both opportunities and risks for investors in this sector [1][10][20].

Core Viewpoint - The IFRS Foundation has appointed Hans-Ulrich Engel as the new trustee, effective immediately, with a term set to continue through 2028, potentially extendable [1][3]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Hans-Ulrich Engel, former vice-chairman and CFO of BASF, brings extensive expertise in finance, international business, and leadership to the IFRS Foundation [1][2]. - Engel's responsibilities will include overseeing the foundation's governance and strategy, particularly concerning the IASB and ISSB [1]. - Engel's appointment follows the departure of Erhard Schipporeit, and it has been sanctioned by the IFRS Foundation Monitoring Board [3]. Group 2: Engel's Background - Engel has a 35-year career at BASF, holding various senior positions, including vice chairman of the Board of Directors and chief digital officer, with experience in both Germany and the US [2]. - Currently, Engel serves on the boards of DHL Group and Harbour Energy, and presides over the Heinz Hermann Thiele Family Foundation's board of trustees [2]. Group 3: Statements and Future Directions - Engel expressed his privilege in being appointed and looks forward to supporting the Foundation's role in shaping international accounting and sustainability disclosure standards [3]. - IFRS chair Erkki Liikanen welcomed Engel, highlighting his extensive experience and leadership as invaluable to the group of Trustees [4]. - In July, the IFRS released advanced draft examples to aid companies in disclosing financial uncertainties, particularly related to climate scenarios [4][5].