Good morning. This is Horizon's Middle East and Africa. Our top stories this morning, Israel's security cabinet approves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to take full control of Gaza City.President Trump nominated Steven Miron to temporarily fill Adriana Kugler seat on the Fed board. Meanwhile, Christopher Waller is the leading choice amongst Trump's advisors as the next chair. Plus, Japan's top trade negotiator says the US has confirmed it will end stacking of universal tariffs on Tokyo and cut ca ...

Epstein Scandal & White House Response - The White House allegedly held a meeting to discuss the Epstein scandal, despite initial denials from VP Vance [1] - Reports suggest a strategy meeting was cancelled in response to reporting about it, indicating an attempt to manage optics [1] - Trump's claims about banning Epstein from Mar-a-Lago are being questioned, fueling further scrutiny [1] - MAGA figures are expressing discontent with the administration's handling of the Epstein case, signaling a potential revolt [1] Trump's Actions & Economic Impact - Trump is accused of using Soviet-style tactics, creating an alternate reality and potentially chilling free speech [5] - The administration's interventionist approach is likened to that of strongmen in countries like Turkey and Argentina [4] - New tariffs are described as a $300 billion tax hike, disproportionately affecting working and middle-class Americans [4] - Concerns are raised about Trump's meddling in private companies, including suggesting CEOs should resign, leading to market instability [3] Free Speech & Corporate Influence - Bob Woodward criticizes Trump's First Amendment crackdowns as "pathetic" [5] - Corporations are allegedly influenced by Trump, with examples given of Paramount/Skyance merger and Colbert's cancellation [5] - A novelist who grew up in Russia draws parallels between Trump's actions and Soviet censorship, raising concerns about self-censorship [5] - There are concerns that people are afraid to voice their true feelings, leading to a distorted reality [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Key Companies**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), GlobalWafers (GWC) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Tariff Announcement**: On August 6, 2025, President Trump announced a proposed 100% tariff on imported semiconductor chips, with exemptions for companies building manufacturing facilities in the US [1] 2. **Impact on TSMC and GWC**: TSMC and GWC are likely to be exempt from the tariff due to their US operations and expansion plans, positioning them favorably for US customers seeking domestic sourcing [2][3] 3. **Investor Sentiment**: The tariff exemption is expected to alleviate investor concerns regarding semiconductor tariff uncertainties, which have been a significant valuation overhang [2] 4. **TSMC's Market Performance**: TSMC's share price has increased by 15%, but it has underperformed compared to other AI-related companies, indicating investor concerns over geopolitical risks [3] 5. **Earnings Visibility**: The tariff exemption is anticipated to enhance TSMC's earnings visibility and reduce downside risks to its growth outlook, as management has already factored potential tariff impacts into their 2025 guidance [3] 6. **Mature Node Capacity**: The proposed tariff exemption may limit downside risks to TSMC's mature node capacity, potentially making its pricing more competitive [4][7] 7. **Vanguard and UMC Implications**: Vanguard may face negative implications due to lack of US exposure, while UMC's collaboration with Intel on a 12nm process lacks clarity on tariff exemption eligibility [8] Company-Specific Developments 1. **TSMC's US Investment**: TSMC plans to invest an additional US$100 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the US, bringing its total investment to US$165 billion, including multiple fabrication plants and R&D centers [9] 2. **GWC's Expansion**: GWC is expanding its capacity in the US, with significant customer interest in US-based products due to localization trends. Revenue is expected to ramp up gradually from 2H25 to 1H26 [10] Investment Thesis 1. **TSMC**: TSMC is viewed as a leading global foundry with over 60% market share, positioned to capture long-term growth opportunities in AI, 5G, HPC, and EV sectors. The stock is rated as a Buy with a target price of NT$1,370 [12][13][14] 2. **GWC**: GWC is rated Neutral due to slower end-demand recovery and high inventory levels among key customers, with a target price of NT$380 [16][19][18] Risks and Considerations 1. **TSMC Risks**: Key risks include deterioration in end-demand recovery, slower customer node migrations, and increased competition affecting profitability [15] 2. **GWC Risks**: Risks include fluctuations in end-demand recovery, competition, and production costs [20] Additional Insights - The tariff situation is expected to shift the cost dynamics in the semiconductor industry, potentially benefiting companies like TSMC that can offer competitive pricing while ensuring supply chain security [7]

Trump's trade war heating up again while he also tries to use and sometimes blatantly abuse federal government power to take control of free markets on Wall Street. An interesting contrast as we've reported because so many Wall Street folks worried that past Democratic administrations would interfere in their business, but this first year of Trump second term has done so more than any modern administration. As for the tariffs today, they are here hitting many countries, raising import taxes to the highest l ...

Core Viewpoint - The situation surrounding Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan has escalated following President Trump's call for his resignation due to concerns over Tan's reported holdings in Chinese companies, which has led to a decline in Intel's stock price [1][7]. Group 1: Company Response Strategies - Intel has not yet issued a public statement regarding Trump's call for Tan's resignation, which could risk the crisis escalating if not addressed promptly [2][3]. - Experts suggest that Intel should move swiftly to communicate its position to various stakeholders, including investors, customers, and employees, to mitigate potential fallout [3][11]. - A coordinated response team should be formed, including legal, government affairs, and PR departments, to ensure that the company supports Tan and addresses any national security concerns related to his investments [11][12]. Group 2: Communication Tactics - It is crucial for Intel to decide whether to stand behind Tan and to clearly communicate this decision to the public [8][9]. - The company should consider having Tan or a strong surrogate represent Intel in media engagements to reinforce its message [9][10]. - Experts recommend creating an "offramp" by engaging with influential figures around Trump to position Intel as an ally rather than an adversary, potentially appealing to Trump's transactional nature [13][14].

Supply Chain Restructuring - Tesla is diversifying its Dojo supercomputer supply chain, reducing reliance on TSMC [1] - Tesla has selected Samsung and Intel as new partners for its third-generation Dojo system [1] Partnerships and Technology - Samsung Foundry will fabricate AI chips, potentially using its 2nm manufacturing facility in the U S [2] - Intel will handle back-end integration using EMIB (Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge) technology [2] - This collaboration marks the first time Samsung and Intel are working together in a Tesla-led supply chain [3] Strategic Implications - Tesla aims to merge its Dojo hardware and AI chip architecture [3] - The integrated system is designed to support full self-driving, robotics, and large-scale AI workloads [3]

Core Insights - Proactive provides fast, accessible, and informative business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech, mining, oil and gas, and emerging technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Core Viewpoint - Intel's shares declined by 3.36% following President Trump's call for CEO Lip-Bu Tan's resignation due to alleged conflicts of interest related to China [1] Group 1: CEO and Leadership Concerns - Lip-Bu Tan became CEO of Intel earlier this year amid significant challenges, including competitive pressures and manufacturing difficulties [2] - Senator Tom Cotton expressed concerns regarding Tan's ties to Chinese firms and a criminal case involving his former company, Cadence Design Systems Inc. [2][3] Group 2: National Security Implications - Cotton's letter raised questions about the security and integrity of Intel's operations and its potential impact on U.S. national security [3] - The letter inquired whether Intel's board was aware of subpoenas sent to Cadence during Tan's tenure and what measures were taken to address these concerns [3][4] Group 3: Financial and Legal Issues - Tan reportedly invested at least $200 million in various Chinese manufacturing and chip firms, some of which have military ties, between 2012 and 2024 [4] - Cadence Design agreed to plead guilty and pay over $140 million for selling chip design products to a Chinese military university during Tan's tenure as CEO from 2008 to 2021 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding an additional layer of due diligence [1]

Market Overview & Trends - Asian and European markets are showing positive movement, influenced by earnings reports and tariff developments [1][3] - US market performance is under scrutiny following a disappointing previous day [2] - Earnings and tariffs are expected to be major focal points during the trading day [4] - A weakening economy is indicated by labor revisions, with the bond market pricing in potential Fed cuts [28] - Market sentiment is influenced by the "buy the dip" mentality (FOMO) and the performance of tech and AI sectors [29][30] Company Specific News - **Glencore:** Abandoned plans to move its primary listing to New York, citing no added value for shareholders, and reported a net loss of $655 million in the first half of 2025, nearly triple the $233 million loss from the previous year [5] - **Glencore:** Launched a $1 billion cost-cutting program in response to lower coal prices, copper production issues, and tariff uncertainties [6] - **Nova Nordisk:** Weight loss drug Wegovy sees sales soar, but US sales disappoint [1][39] - **Disney:** Adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations at $161 versus an expected $146, while Q3 revenue aligned with expectations at $237 billion, shares are down by over 15% in pre-market [16] - **McDonald's:** Earnings per share slightly missed expectations at $314 versus an expected $315, but revenue exceeded expectations at $684 billion versus an expected $67 billion, shares are up around 3% in pre-market [17][18] - **Uber:** Revenue came in at $1265 billion versus an expected $1248 billion, and earnings per share met expectations at 63 cents, shares are down 14%-16% in pre-market [19] - **AMD:** Analyst suggests the upside is unlimited, expecting to regain $15 billion lost due to China sanctions over the last two quarters [23] - **Honda:** Raised its annual profit guidance despite a 50% year-over-year fall in operating profits in the first quarter, citing a smaller-than-expected impact from tariffs [45] - **Open Door:** Shares are down over 20% in pre-market after offering disappointing guidance, citing a challenging macro environment and persistent housing market weakness [46] - **Super Micro Computer:** Shares are plunging in pre-market after cutting its annual sales forecast, with fourth-quarter results falling below expectations due to order delays from economic uncertainty [47] - **Snap:** Analyst says numbers are better than feared, but results are not encouraging compared to the rest of the ad complex, stock is down another quick 15% after hours [49][51] Tariffs & Trade - Countries are pushing for last-minute trade deals as the tariff deadline approaches [7] - Switzerland is attempting to avoid 39% tariffs [9] - India is facing potential increases in tariffs due to its consumption of Russian oil [9] - A 90-day pause on tariffs is expected to be extended, potentially paving the way for a Trump-Xi meeting [13] Federal Reserve (The Fed) - There is speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with some suggesting a possible 50 basis point cut [31][32]