Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" for Greater China Technology Semiconductors [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential in China's AI semiconductor sector, with a forecasted capital expenditure increase of 62% year-over-year to RMB 373 billion for the top six companies [19]. - TSMC's revenue guidance for Q3 2025 indicates a potential growth of approximately 3% quarter-over-quarter in USD, but a decline of 1.6% in TWD [12]. - The report anticipates that China's local GPU market will significantly expand, with local GPU revenue projected to reach RMB 287 billion by 2027, driven by advancements in SMIC's leading node capacity [33]. Summary by Sections Valuation Comparison - TSMC's target price is set at 1,288 TWD, representing a 19% upside potential, with an estimated P/E ratio of 23.9x for 2024 [8]. - The average EPS growth for the semiconductor sector is projected at 40% for 2024, with a mean P/B ratio of 2.3x [8]. - The memory segment shows a notable upside potential for Giga Device, with a target price of 145.0 CNY, indicating a 20% upside [9]. TSMC Preview - TSMC's Q3 2025 revenue is estimated at NT$ 910 billion, with a gross profit of NT$ 508 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 35.1% [12]. - The gross margin is expected to be 55.8%, while the operating margin is projected at 45.5% [12]. China AI Semiconductor Demand - The report projects that China's GPU self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 34% in 2024 to 82% by 2027, indicating a strong trend towards domestic production [28]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI in China is expected to reach USD 48 billion by 2027 [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several sectors including Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials, while underweighting (UW) Energy and Utilities [7][11]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a range-bound MXCN (70-80) in the near term with potential upside in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as strong southbound inflows into Hong Kong and a possible resolution in US-China trade negotiations [6][22]. - The forecast for MXCN/CSI300 is projected to reach HK$80/Rmb4,150 (+5.1%/5.8% from the previous close) in the base case and HK$89/Rmb4,420 (+16.8%/12.7% from the previous close) in the upside case by the end of 2025 [6][22]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences from "affordable treats" to "affordable experiences," indicating a potential investment opportunity in sectors related to learning and at-home entertainment [6][8]. Summary by Sections Key Drivers for 2H25 - The report identifies key drivers for the second half of 2025, including a rebound in GDP growth and a rise in the share of sub-sectors in Recovery and Expansion [17][20]. - The business cycle profile of China equity is noted to have troughed in 3Q24, with a significant increase in the number of sectors showing recovery [17][20]. Earnings Outlook & Sector Weights - The report predicts upside for MXCN EPS compared to consensus, while forecasting downside for CSI300/CSI500/CSI1000 EPS growth due to differing sector exposures [6][7]. - Sector weights indicate a return to an Overweight stance on IT, while maintaining Overweight on Communications Services, Discretionary, Healthcare, and Materials [6][7]. Thematic Stock Screens - The report emphasizes several themes, including the rise of high yielders favored by onshore investors and the potential for financial sector consolidation [6][11]. - Top picks for 2H25 include Tencent, Alibaba, and Innovent, among others, reflecting a focus on companies with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [6][7][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the stablecoin industry or specific companies involved in it. Core Insights - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth, with total market capitalization increasing from approximately US$3 billion in 2019 to over US$230 billion by 2Q25. The market is projected to reach US$2 trillion by 2028, with potential estimates as high as US$3.7 trillion by the end of the decade [8][10][20]. - The Hong Kong SAR government aims to establish the city as a global hub for digital assets, with stablecoins being a crucial component of this strategy. The development of stablecoins is expected to facilitate various payment scenarios, including cross-border transactions and digital financial asset transactions [1][20]. - Key players in the stablecoin ecosystem include issuers, exchanges, custodians, payment channels, blockchain networks, and brokers, each with distinct roles and monetization strategies [14][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The stablecoin market is currently dominated by fiat-backed stablecoins, with USDT and USDC capturing 66% and 26% of the market share, respectively [8][9]. - The growth prospects for stablecoins are closely tied to the adoption of digital assets in various payment scenarios, including B2B, B2C, and C2C transactions [1][20]. Regulatory Framework - The report outlines similarities and differences between stablecoin regulations in the US and Hong Kong, emphasizing the need for regulatory supervision and adequate consumer protection [18][19]. - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) as the primary regulator [19]. Utilization and Features - Potential features of Hong Kong's stablecoins include being primarily referenced to HKD, maintaining liquid and low-risk reserve assets, and requiring all ecosystem players to be licensed [23][24]. - Key use cases for stablecoins in Hong Kong include facilitating digital asset transactions, trade finance, and cross-border payments [24]. Company Involvement - Companies such as Standard Chartered, Futu, ZhongAn, and JD.com are actively participating in the stablecoin ecosystem, with various strategies to secure licenses and develop digital asset solutions [25][30][31]. - The report notes that only Futu and Standard Chartered have initiated monetization efforts, with digital asset revenue contributions currently being immaterial but expected to ramp up upon obtaining relevant licenses [26][32]. Equity Implications - The rising adoption of stablecoins is anticipated to benefit companies in the communications services and discretionary sectors, particularly e-tailing platforms, while traditional payment service providers may face declining transaction volumes [34].

Group 1 - Conagra Brands operates in the grocery retail and foodservice sectors, selling products under various brand names available in supermarkets, restaurants, and food service establishments [1] - The company has been navigating challenges such as inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and shifting consumer behavior since 2020 [1] Group 2 - The analysis of Conagra Brands is part of a broader fundamental analysis of publicly listed companies, which includes firms like Covestro, Signify, Alibaba, Verizon, and China Mobile [1] - The expertise in accounting allows for thorough analysis of annual reports and financial information, which is crucial for assessing stock valuation [1]

Thanks. Masio Shusan continuing his moonshot bets, this time reportedly pitching TSMC and Trump officials on building a trillionoll AI complex in Arizona. Dear Drabosa has more in today's tech check.So what do we know about this plan. Dearra, we don't know very much Sarah, but it does say something about this race. Like if you thought that hund00 million signing bonuses, multi-billion dollar acquisition attempts, if you thought those were aggressive, I mean there's Masoshi Sun, the soft bank CEO and founder ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Meituan, JD, Alibaba, Guming, Mixue, and Yum China, with specific target prices set for each company [18][24][25][26][27][36]. Core Insights - The food delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in daily order volumes, reaching approximately 120 million, driven by competitive subsidies and evolving consumer behavior [2][20]. - Meituan is expected to maintain its leadership in the food delivery market, with a projected market share of 60-65%, while JD and Taobao Instant Shopping/Ele.me are estimated to hold 10-15% and 25-28% market shares, respectively [11][18]. - The competition among food delivery platforms has intensified, particularly between Meituan, JD, and Taobao Instant Shopping, leading to aggressive subsidy strategies and increased order volumes [2][8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The food delivery market has expanded due to platform subsidies, resulting in an increase of around 30 million incremental daily orders, with 15 million of these being beverage orders, which are less likely to sustain post-subsidy normalization [12][20]. - The effective take rate for merchants in the industry has decreased to the low 20% range, down from mid-20% levels, indicating increased pressure on margins due to competition [10]. Company Strategies - Meituan has shifted to more aggressive strategies to defend its market share, including targeted subsidies and differentiated offerings [8]. - JD has ramped up its order volumes to 25 million daily, leveraging its delivery capabilities and expanding its on-demand retail offerings [24]. - Taobao Instant Shopping has initiated aggressive subsidy campaigns to enhance its market position, benefiting from traffic support from its main apps [10]. Long-term Projections - The expert forecasts that JD's loss per order will peak in Q2 2025, with gradual improvements expected by Q4 2025 [11]. - The long-term competitive landscape suggests that Meituan will continue to dominate, while JD and Taobao Instant Shopping will need to adapt to maintain their market positions [11][18].

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [7] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing unprecedented demand driven by AI advancements and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of China's push for AI localization [4][8]. - The report highlights a decoupling between broader semiconductor cycles and AI growth, indicating that while overall semiconductor growth was slow at 10% year-over-year in 2024, AI-related demand continues to surge [10][13]. - Logic semiconductor foundry utilization is reported at 70-80% in the first half of 2025, suggesting that recovery is still ongoing [9]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Significant demand is anticipated from AI, with NVIDIA experiencing booming demand and its Days of Inventory (DOI) reaching a historical low [15]. - The report forecasts that the top six companies' capital expenditures (capex) will grow by 62% year-over-year to RMB 373 billion [30]. - China's GPU self-sufficiency ratio was 34% in 2024, expected to rise to 82% by 2027, with local GPU revenue projected to reach RMB 287 billion by 2027 [32][35]. Market Trends and Projections - The total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI semiconductors is projected to grow to USD 235 billion in 2025, with edge AI semiconductors expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2023 to 2030 [49][60]. - Inference AI semiconductors are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 55% from 2023 to 2030, outpacing training and general-purpose chips [60]. - The report anticipates robust cloud capex spending of nearly USD 789 billion across 2025-2026, driven by major cloud service providers [49]. Supply Chain and Capacity - TSMC is expected to expand its CoWoS capacity significantly, with projections of producing 5.1 million chips in 2025 [61][70]. - AI computing wafer consumption is estimated to reach up to USD 15 billion in 2025, with NVIDIA accounting for the majority of this consumption [73]. - The report indicates that the semiconductor supply chain is under pressure, with GPU supply and demand needing time to align [70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several companies including Genscript Biotech, Innovent Biologics, Kingdee International, and Zhongsheng Group Holdings [32][46][50][53]. Core Insights - The A-share SMid indices, particularly the micro-cap CSI2000, have outperformed the CSI300 year-to-date (YTD), with CSI2000 rising by 12.9% compared to CSI300's 0.2% [2][3]. - High-beta micro-caps have benefited from robust trading volumes and less national team ownership, leading to increased retail trading interest [3][4]. - The outlook for 2Q25 suggests a range-bound trading environment for MXCN, with potential upside driven by trade negotiations and possible reforms in China [4][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The micro-cap CSI2000 has outperformed other indices, with H shares rising by 15% to 18% in USD terms compared to the flat performance of onshore indices [2][3]. - The consensus EPS for SMids has faced significant downgrades, with declines of 13% and 17% for CSI500 and CSI1000 respectively [8][16]. Sector Analysis - Defensive sectors such as Healthcare, Utilities, and Consumer Staples have performed well, while Real Estate and IT lagged behind [8][25]. - Healthcare and IT remain preferred themes, with expectations for biotech shares to benefit from improved policy outlooks and AI adoption in IT [8][25]. Company-Specific Insights - Kingdee International has seen a 51% increase in shares YTD, supported by AI adoption [10]. - Innovent's shares have surged by 98% YTD, driven by strong product sales and potential for significant revenue growth from new drugs [10]. - Genscript is expected to achieve a 45% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, with profitability anticipated in 2026 [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a tentative US-China détente following a call between Trump and Xi, with discussions on trade and potential sanctions [1]. - The HSCEI index increased by 2.5% and the CSI 300 by 0.9% during the week [1]. - China is considering a RMB500 billion investment to accelerate infrastructure projects in AI, digital economy, and consumption [1]. - The report notes that the IT, Communication Services, and Broadline Retail sectors outperformed, while Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Energy sectors underperformed [1]. Key Themes Update - The report identifies key themes in the China market, focusing on index-heavy stocks with high dividend yields and local champions expanding globally [12]. - High yield stocks listed include CCB, ICBC, and PetroChina, with dividend yields ranging from 5.1% to 7.1% [12]. - Local champions going global include companies like BYD and Great Wall Motor, which are less impacted by US/EU tariffs [12]. Market Movements and Capital Flows - The report indicates that the A-share market saw a 22.9% year-over-year increase in new account openings in May [3]. - Preliminary data shows that May passenger vehicle wholesales increased by 14% year-over-year, with NEV sales up by 38% [3]. Earnings Revisions - The report does not provide specific details on earnings revisions for the industry or companies [1]. Recovery Trends - The report notes that the top 100 developers' home sales decreased by 8.6% year-over-year in May [3]. - Average new home prices in 100 cities increased by 0.3% month-over-month in May, while secondary home prices decreased by 0.7% [3]. Key Events - The report mentions that the US made tough requests to Vietnam in trade talks, including reducing reliance on Chinese industrial goods [2]. - The PBOC is set to inject RMB1 trillion via outright reverse repos in June [2]. Key News - The report highlights that the EU voted to limit China's access to its medical device procurement [1]. - China is reportedly considering a major deal to order hundreds of Airbus jets during EU leaders' visit [1].

US-China Trade & Tech Restrictions - Expectation of a shift from broad-based sanctions on semiconductors to more targeted measures [1] - US imposed export restrictions on H-20 chips potentially impacting $4.5 billion in sales [2] - China restricted magnets impacting electric vehicles and smartphones [2] - US retaliated by blocking Leap One SEE engines used by CarMax jets [3] - Specific Chinese companies compete directly with American counterparts in chips, aerospace, defense, critical minerals, and telecommunications [5] - China is the leading trade partner to over 140 countries [7] National Security & Industry Competition - Key verticals where Chinese competition poses a direct threat to American technological leadership include chips, aerospace and defense, critical minerals supply chains, and telecommunications [5][6] - Some Chinese e-commerce and entertainment companies have been embroiled in national security concerns [7][8] - China is disaggregating large businesses to facilitate targeted sanctions [9] Supply Chain & Manufacturing - US needs to unlock natural resources to ensure American national security [14][15] - Resurgence of American aerospace and defense is attributed to the Trump administration's efforts to remove barriers to growth [13][14] - Reinforcement of American supply chains is needed to reduce dependence on Chinese inputs [12]