周一亚洲早盘交易中，受美国进口税政策最新不确定性引发的市场恐慌情绪影响，比特币价格下跌。 根据CoinGecko的数据，仅在过去24小时内，加密货币市场市值再度蒸发1000亿美元。加密衍生品交易 所Deribit的数据显示，下行风险保护盘主要集中在60000美元关口附近。 加密税务平台Koinly首席执行官Robin Singh表示，除了最新的进口税消息外，市场持续走弱凸显出比特 币目前"迫切需要新的上涨叙事"。"尽管近期市场对美国《清晰法案》持乐观态度，但它并未对币价产 生太大推动，这表明这一催化剂并非能推动比特币走高的叙事逻辑。" 北京时间下午1点15分，比特币交易价格约为65000美元。BTC Markets分析师Rachael Lucas认为，这一 价位是比特币的关键支撑位。 这一最早的加密货币一度大跌4.8%，至近64，300美元，为2月6日以来的最低水平。其他加密货币表现 更差，第二大加密货币以太币下跌5.2%。 此次下跌发生前，美国官员于周日表示，尽管最高法院裁定驳回特朗普动用紧急权力征收进口税的做 法，但美国与贸易伙伴已谈妥的贸易协议仍将有效。 特朗普周六在社交媒体发文称，他将把前一天宣布的全 ...

| | Futures trading volume of major Exchanges | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Exchange | 2025-12 | 2026-01 | MoM % | | Binance | 1,634,599,155,325 | 1,645,958,003,670 | 0.7% | | Bybit | 502,379,600,693 | 491,615,661,904 | -2.1% | | OKX | 478,061,185,149 | 490,945,923,415 | 2.7% | | Bitget | 248,161,339,966 | 269,382,689,256 | 8.6% | | MEXC | 143,742,971,549 | 104,819,358,230 | -27.1% | | Gate | 85,883,230,639 | 94,963,220,524 | 10.6% | | HTX | 84,307,402,259 | 87,902,563,546 | 4.3% | | KuCoin | 79,356,557 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin's volatility index (BVIV) has surged to its highest level since the FTX collapse, indicating significant market panic as prices fell to nearly $60,000 [1][3] - The BVIV, akin to the Cboe's VIX for traditional markets, reflects heightened implied volatility during periods of market distress [2] Market Reaction - A wave of panic has swept through crypto markets, with Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility rising from just over 40% to 95% in a few days, levels not seen since late 2022 [3] - Traders have shown increased demand for options, particularly put options, as Bitcoin's price dropped from $70,000 to nearly $60,000, indicating a protective stance against further declines [5] Volatility Dynamics - The volatility markets reacted sharply to the recent price drop, with front-end volatility surging as dealers adjusted for near-term risks, while longer-dated volatility remained lower, resulting in a steeply inverted volatility curve [6] - There is a significant demand for downside protection among institutional clients, as fears grow that the price crash could lead to substantial losses for firms that purchased Bitcoin at higher levels [7]

从技术分析角度看，当前市场的调整压力早已在指标中显现。Moneta Markets外汇认为，自去年10月底 以来，比特币便进入了横盘阴跌的修正周期，所谓的重回巅峰更像是投资者的盲目乐观。相关数据显 示，月度MACD指标在去年11月已出现死叉，且周线级别的21与55周期指数移动平均线（EMA）近期 也已进入看跌区间。此外，2025年的年线收官呈现出明显的"流星线"形态，这在技术上通常被视为中期 趋势反转的信号。 期权市场的防御性布局进一步佐证了市场的担忧。Moneta Markets外汇表示，目前Deribit平台上执行价 在75000美元的看跌期权名义未平仓合约价值已飙升至11.59亿美元，几乎与100000美元的看涨期权持 平。这意味着交易者正在大规模对冲下行风险，而非博弈更高价位。与此同时，由于比特币在风险资产 偏好转向时往往首当其冲，这种"先卖出高投机资产"的行为逻辑，正促使资金加速流向传统避险市场。 综上所述，当前比特币的深度洗盘是清理过度杠杆的必然过程。Moneta Markets外汇认为，短期内价格 仍有进一步下探50000至60000美元区间的可能。然而，这种幅度的调整并非意味着加密周期的终结， ...

Core Insights - Crypto traders are adopting a bullish stance while simultaneously seeking downside protection ahead of a significant bitcoin options expiration worth $8.5 billion on Deribit [1][3] - The options market has seen rapid expansion since the COVID crash in 2020, driven by institutional interest in risk hedging and yield strategies [2] - The current put-call ratio of 0.56 indicates a bullish positioning among traders, with a greater number of call options compared to puts [3] Market Dynamics - Traders are anticipating strong price movements in January, although bitcoin has only increased by 2% this month [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision could influence market performance, as bitcoin typically benefits from low interest rates [4] - There is notable activity in put options, particularly in January strikes, as traders hedge against potential volatility surrounding macroeconomic events [5] Options Expiry Impact - Alongside bitcoin options, ether options worth $1.3 billion will also expire, but the overall impact on the market is expected to be minimal due to the relatively small size of the options market compared to spot trading [6] - The impending $8.5 billion bitcoin options expiry represents less than 1% of its total market capitalization of $1.7 trillion, indicating limited potential for long-term market disruption [6]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a recovery after hitting a low of $86,000, rising over 2% within nine hours before facing resistance at $88,250, indicating a potential early bear-market reversal despite an ongoing downtrend since October [1] - The recent selloff was influenced by risk-off sentiment among investors, following U.S. President Trump's speeches at Davos, which affected Bitcoin's status as a safe-haven asset and aligned it more closely with U.S. equities [2] Derivatives Positioning - Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) remained stable at $22.6 billion, suggesting a pause in deleveraging despite price volatility [3] - Funding rates across most exchanges have neutralized around 5% annualized, with OKX showing a -3.8% rate, indicating localized hedging or bearish positions [3] - The 3-month annualized basis on Binance and Deribit increased to just over 5%, reflecting a firming institutional appetite during market consolidation [3] - BTC options displayed high conviction with a 15% one-week 25-delta skew and 58% call dominance in 24-hour volume [3] - Implied volatility (IV) term structure shifted from contango to backwardation, with near-term rates higher than those further out, indicating a premium for immediate positioning [3] Liquidation and Altcoin Performance - Coinglass data reported $744 million in liquidations within 24 hours, with a 77-23 split between longs and shorts, highlighting significant market activity [3] - Bitcoin's weakness contrasted with altcoin resilience, as Ether (ETH) and XRP rose by 2.8%, while privacy coins Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) gained 6% and 3%, respectively [3] - Metaverse tokens performed notably, with Axie Infinity (AXS) increasing by over 23%, contributing to a 34.4% year-to-date rally in the CoinDesk Metaverse Select Index (MTVS) [3] Altcoin Market Dynamics - The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index, dominated by Bitcoin, has lost 0.52% since the start of the year, while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) Index, heavy on altcoins, has risen by 2.5%, indicating relative strength among altcoins [4] - RIVER, the native token of a stablecoin protocol, surged over 2,100% in the past 30 days, with a 34% increase in the last 24 hours [4] - The "altcoin season" indicator is currently at 28/100, significantly higher than last month's 16/100 but still below September's peak of 76/100 [4] - A lack of liquidity and market depth since October's $19 billion liquidation cascade has led to exaggerated altcoin movements, resulting in high liquidation rates during selloffs and rapid recoveries [4]

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The market story is clear: Bitcoin (BTC) and the other major coins are down alongside Nasdaq 100 futures as President Donald Trump's tariff threat against the European nations opposing his takeover of Greenland ramps up geopolitical tensions. But, under the hood, there's another dynamic, and it involved the invisible hands that make the trading experience seamless. Those hands belong to market makers, the entities that create buy and sell orders ...

Core Viewpoint - Deribit has launched USDC-settled options products for AVAX and TRX, expanding its offerings beyond perpetual contracts [1] Group 1: Product Launch - Deribit now offers USDC-settled options for AVAX and TRX, which were previously available only as perpetual contracts [1] - The options can be used to hedge against downside risks in the spot market or to sell calls while holding the underlying assets to collect premiums [1] Group 2: Contract Specifications - Each AVAX options contract corresponds to 100 AVAX, while each TRX options contract corresponds to 10,000 TRX [1] - Currently, AVAX and TRX tokens cannot be deposited, and they cannot be used as offset currencies [1]

Deribit, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, and crypto options trading platform SignalPlus have concluded the 2025 Deribit x SignalPlus Trading Competition (Space Edition), according to a Jan. 5 announcement. The competition generated over $23 billion in cumulative notional trading volume in 2025, highlighting strong participation from both institutional and retail traders in the crypto derivatives market. Data shared by Deribit and SignalPlus shows steady growth over time, with the competition produc ...

Core Insights - Deribit and SignalPlus reported that the cumulative nominal trading volume of the Deribit x SignalPlus trading competition series exceeded $23 billion in 2025, representing a threefold increase compared to approximately $8 billion in 2024 [1] - The event attracted 586 active traders, with a peak daily active user (DAU) count of 391, and new competition deposits amounted to approximately $79 million [1] - Despite increased market volatility in the second half of the year, options participation continued to rise, and both companies plan to continue their events and collaborations in 2026 [1]