Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the **China & Hong Kong equity market** with a specific outlook for **2026** and investment strategies for **1Q26** [2][5]. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Constructive Stance on MXCN/CSI300**: The report maintains a positive outlook on MXCN and CSI300, predicting further rallies in 2026 with targets set at **100** for MXCN, **5,200** for CSI300, and **16,000** for MXHK, based on consensus EPS estimates [2][7][9]. 2. **Investment Themes for 2026**: - **Anti-involution**: Expected to accelerate post-March NPC, improving margins and ROE for MXCN/CSI300 [5]. - **AI Infrastructure Growth**: Strong global capex in AI is anticipated to boost demand for computing power and localization plays in China [5]. - **Global Macro Support**: Positive macroeconomic conditions, including easing fiscal and monetary policies in developed markets, are expected to enhance overseas sales [5]. - **K-shaped Recovery in Consumption**: This will favor food & beverage and premium luxury sectors while negatively impacting mid-tier consumption [5]. 3. **Risks Identified**: - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing tensions between the US and China, particularly ahead of the US mid-term elections, and rising tensions with Japan [5]. - **Consensus EPS Growth Concerns**: Potential downward revisions in consensus EPS growth for MXCN from approximately **15%** to **9%** due to intense competition in quick commerce platforms [5]. - **Property Market Weakness**: Reports of declining luxury sales and price drops in mainland China may trigger policy changes [5]. Sector Recommendations and Top Picks 1. **Under-owned China Equity**: The report suggests that China equity is under-owned both domestically and internationally, indicating potential for increased allocation [6]. 2. **Sector Preferences**: - **Overweight (OW)**: Communication Services, IT, Materials, and Staples. - **Underweight (UW)**: Energy and Utilities [6][12]. 3. **Top Picks for 1Q26**: - **China**: Baidu, NetEase, Midea, MIXUE, PDD, Pop Mart, Trip.com, Tingyi, Futu, Innovent, CATL, COLI. - **Hong Kong**: AIA, HKEX, Futu, Galaxy, MGM China, Techtronic, Link REITs, MTR, China State Construction International [6][13][15]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Valuation Normalization**: Since September 2024, MXCN/CSI300 has shown a return of **29%/30%** in USD terms, indicating a shift from a valuation discount to a more favorable investment narrative [20]. - **EPS Recovery**: The report highlights a broadening recovery in earnings across various sectors despite weak headline EPS growth, with significant recoveries noted in Healthcare, IT, and Communication Services [41][42]. - **Quantitative Macro Indicator (QMI)**: The JPM China QMI indicates an expansion phase, suggesting positive momentum in the market [47]. Conclusion The report presents a comprehensive outlook for the China and Hong Kong equity markets, emphasizing potential growth areas, sector preferences, and the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks and market dynamics as 2026 approaches.

Summary of Key Points from the Asia Leaders Conference Day 1 Industry and Companies Involved - **Consumer Sector**: Anta, Laopu Gold, Yum China, Guming, Miniso, CR Beer, Xtep, Galaxy Entertainment, Melco, Hindustan Unilever - **Technology Sector**: Baidu, Didi, Tencent Music, Trip.com - **Financial Sector**: AIA, HKEx - **Healthcare Sector**: CSPC Pharma - **Materials Sector**: Elite Material, Nidec Core Insights and Arguments Anta - Anta is expected to achieve long-term sustainable growth through solid multi-brand operations, with a target price of HK$121. The company is confident in reaching operating profit margin (OPM) targets across brands, showcasing strong cost control capabilities. Management is exploring new M&A opportunities globally in various sports verticals [1][1][1]. Laopu Gold - The company has seen robust demand following a 12.5% price hike, with gross profit margin (GPM) reaching approximately 40%. Repeat purchases have increased from 30% to 40% of sales in 1H25, with average spending rising to RMB100k. Laopu Gold plans for 2-3 price hikes annually, maintaining a normalized GPM of around 40% [1][1][1]. Yum China - Management reiterated guidance for a mid-single-digit percentage system sales growth in 2H25, with stable margins for KFC and slight improvements for PH restaurants. The company is focused on cost savings and operating leverage to support OPM expansion [1][1][1]. Guming - Guming is focusing on sustainable growth through rapid store expansion, aiming for around 13,000 stores by year-end. The company is not altering its store opening plans despite food delivery subsidies impacting dine-in trends [1][1][1]. Miniso - Miniso and Guming are experiencing structural growth opportunities driven by increased consumer demand and expansion into new markets, despite overall fluid demand in China [1][1][1]. China Resources Beer - The company is seeing steady volume trends and is focused on improving operational efficiency. There is potential for growth in the Heineken brand, particularly in Eastern China and Sichuan [1][1][1]. Xtep International - Xtep is on track with its full-year plan, showing resilience amid competitive pressures. The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly for its Saucony brand, with a target price of HK$7.10 [1][1][1]. Galaxy Entertainment - The company reported a GGR market share increase to approximately 21% in August, supported by the ramp-up of the Capella hotel and a busy event schedule. Galaxy is considering further capital returns after increasing its dividend payout to 58% [1][1][1]. Melco Resorts & Entertainment - Melco's GGR share improved in August, with a focus on achieving a Top-3 market position. The company is prioritizing debt reduction due to its leveraged balance sheet [1][1][1]. Hindustan Unilever - HUL is investing in future categories and channels, expecting FMCG growth revival in India, particularly with GST rate cuts. The company plans to shift its beauty segment towards premium products [1][1][1]. Baidu - Baidu's outlook for its Robotaxi and AI Cloud business is promising, with management focusing on unlocking asset value and shareholder returns [1][1][1]. Didi - Didi is experiencing healthy growth in mobility and profitability, with a focus on international food delivery investments [1][1][1]. Trip.com - Trip.com reported resilient domestic travel demand, gaining market share amid industry supply growth [1][1][1]. CSPC Pharma - CSPC is progressing smoothly in business development negotiations, with plans for clinical trials and a commitment to maintaining dividend payouts [1][1][1]. Elite Material - The company is expected to hold a significant share of the AI GPU CCL market, with estimates of around 40-45% by 2026E [1][1][1]. Nidec - Nidec announced the establishment of a third-party committee to investigate suspected accounting issues, which may negatively impact investor sentiment [1][1][1]. Other Important Insights - The overall sentiment at the conference was optimistic, with many companies focusing on growth strategies and operational efficiencies. The discussions highlighted the importance of adapting to market dynamics and consumer behavior changes, particularly in the context of e-commerce and premium product offerings [1][1][1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese equity market**, which has seen a significant increase of **+42% over the past year** and **+26% year-to-date in USD** [1] Core Arguments 1. **Equity vs Rate Correlation** - There is a **bullish disconnect** between equities and rates in China, typically positively correlated through the cycle. However, at policy tipping points, equities can rally while rates remain low due to adequate policy easing. This signals the beginning of a cyclical inflection, similar to the US scenario from **2010-2012** [1] 2. **Liquidity Uplift** - China's **money supply** is rising, with **M1 growth** increasing from **0% earlier this year to over 5%** and **M2 growth** from **7% to nearly 9%**. This increase in liquidity is expected to lead to higher asset prices. Additionally, excess liquidity in China has risen from **9.1% of GDP in 3Q24 to 12.6% in 2Q25** [7] 3. **October Plenary** - The upcoming **October Plenary** will be crucial for understanding China's economic direction, particularly regarding the **15th Five-Year Plan**. Key areas of focus may include supporting consumption and improving supply/demand balance. The shift from a supply-side focus to a more balanced approach is anticipated to take years, not months [12] Additional Insights - A focus on **consumer sectors** is recommended, as companies like **Anta (9.5x EV/EBITDA)**, **Yum China (9.4x)**, **Galaxy Entertainment (8.5x)**, and **CR Beer (7.5x)** are trading at attractive multiples. This suggests potential for significant upward movement if consumption is prioritized in policy discussions [13] - The **anti-involution policy** is seen as a long-term strategy, indicating a shift in focus from supply-side growth to a more sustainable economic model [12] Conclusion - The overall sentiment remains **bullish** on the Chinese equity market, driven by favorable liquidity conditions, potential policy shifts towards consumption, and historical parallels with previous market cycles in the US. Investors are encouraged to monitor developments closely, particularly the outcomes of the October Plenary [1][7][12][13]

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Research on China's "Un-loneliness" Economy Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **"un-loneliness" economy** in China, driven by the rise of single-person households and changing demographics, particularly among young adults and the elderly [1][4][5]. Core Insights 1. **Increase in Solo Living**: - As of 2020, 8.9% of the Chinese population lived alone, a significant increase from 4.4% in 2010. Single-person households now account for 25% of all households in China [4][12][17]. 2. **Emerging Demand for Social Connection**: - Survey data indicates that 21% and 24% of people in China experience collective and relational loneliness, respectively, highlighting a growing demand for services that foster social connections [4][22]. 3. **Sector Opportunities**: - **Sports and Live Entertainment**: The need for community is driving growth in sports participation, with amateur leagues and events gaining popularity. Anta Sports is identified as a top pick in this sector [4][56]. - **Solo Travel**: The rise in solo living is boosting solo travel, particularly among women, with Trip.com highlighted as a key player [4][66]. - **Social Media**: Platforms like Tencent, Kuaishou, and Bilibili are well-positioned to benefit from the increasing need for social interaction [4][66][78]. - **Romance Narrative Games**: The growth of otome games reflects a shift in how intimate connections are formed, with Netease identified as a key player in this market [4][86][92]. 4. **Demographic Shifts**: - Family sizes in China are shrinking, with one and two-person households becoming the most common types. The average family size decreased from 4.41 in 1982 to 2.62 in 2020 [6][8]. 5. **Impact of Marriage Trends**: - The number of marriages in China has fallen by over 50% from its peak in 2013, contributing to the rise of single-person households. The average age of first marriage has also increased significantly [81][82]. Additional Insights - **Health Implications of Loneliness**: Loneliness is linked to poor health outcomes and is recognized as a public health concern by the WHO [34]. - **Community through Sports**: The sports industry contributed 1.15% to China's GDP in 2023, with a notable increase in participation in running and winter sports [35][43]. - **Cultural Events in Macau**: Macau is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for live entertainment, hosting over 2,000 large-scale performances in 2023 [63][64]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in various sectors as a response to the increasing prevalence of single-person households and the associated demand for social connection. Companies in social media, travel, entertainment, and sports are identified as key beneficiaries of this trend [5][56][66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a consistent sector preference, favoring sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while being less favorable towards apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, discretionary small kitchen appliances, jewelry, and non-super-premium spirits [11]. Core Insights - Consumption in China has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth improving to +4.6% year-over-year in 1Q25, and companies in the coverage reporting an average growth of 14% compared to 12% in 4Q24 [1]. - Despite the positive growth, companies remain cautious about the outlook due to ongoing volatility and external factors such as US-China tariff developments impacting consumer confidence [2][1]. - Margin performance in 1Q25 was mixed, with some companies benefiting from favorable raw material prices and cost control, while others faced risks from marketing investments and competition [1]. - Companies are generally maintaining disciplined pricing strategies and healthier inventory levels, although some categories like spirits and sportswear are experiencing challenges due to demand pressures [1]. - The impact of tariffs on earnings and consumer sentiment is significant, with companies cautious about the second half of 2025 amid uncertainties [2]. Summary by Sections Key Findings from 1Q25 Results - Retail sales growth improved to +4.6% year-over-year, with coverage companies reporting an average growth of 14% [1]. - Labor Day consumption growth accelerated, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [1]. Expectations for 2Q25 - Companies are cautious about the outlook for 2H25 due to tariff uncertainties, although those with market share gain opportunities may be more resilient [2]. Sector/Stock Preferences - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while least preferred sectors include apparel/footwear OEM and furniture [11]. Macro Data Points - The report notes that macroeconomic data points are solid, but ongoing tariff developments and policy support need to be monitored [11]. Valuation Methodology - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology and the potential risks associated with it [11].