Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China/HK equity market** and the flows and positioning of funds as of January 2026, highlighting trends in foreign-domiciled mutual funds and A-share market liquidity [1][11]. Core Insights - **Foreign Fund Flows**: In January 2026, US and EU mutual fund inflows to China reached **US$9 billion**, the highest since October 2024. This marks the first net inflow for active funds since early 2023, with passive funds contributing **US$7.4 billion** and active funds **US$1.2 billion** [11]. - **National Team Selling**: The national team sold approximately **US$83 billion** since mid-January 2026, reversing all post-2024 inflows and leaving only **US$16 billion** since 2020. This suggests that selling pressure may ease moving forward [11][39]. - **Retail Activity**: A-share retail activity improved significantly in January, with new account registrations reaching **4.9 million**, surpassing the previous peak of **3.1 million** in March 2025, although still below the **6.8 million** high from October 2024 [48][43]. - **Small Order Inflows**: The daily average net inflow of small A-share orders surged to **Rmb37 billion**, exceeding the previous peak of **Rmb34 billion** in February 2025, but still below the **Rmb48 billion** high from October 2024 [48][49]. Fund Positioning - **Active Weights**: Active fund managers increased their positions in sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals, while reducing exposure in Media & Entertainment, Consumer Services, and Tech Hardware [25]. - **Company-Specific Changes**: Notable increases in positions were seen in companies like Alibaba (BABA), Montage, and AIA, while Tencent, PDD, and Meituan saw reductions [25]. Market Liquidity - **A-share Liquidity**: The report indicates a notable improvement in A-share liquidity, with retail investor activity showing signs of recovery, although still below previous highs [39][43]. - **ETF Flows**: The national team's selling has led to significant outflows from ETFs, particularly large-cap index ETFs, which have seen cumulative outflows of around **US$83 billion** since mid-January 2026 [37][38]. Additional Insights - **Private Fund AUM**: Private fund assets under management (AUM) increased slightly in December 2025, totaling **Rmb1.9 trillion** for the year, indicating a re-engagement of high-net-worth individuals in the stock market [52]. - **Onshore Mutual Funds**: Onshore equity and hybrid mutual funds experienced a notable decline in AUM by **Rmb498 billion** in January 2026, primarily due to national team selling [56]. Conclusion - The report highlights a complex landscape for the China/HK equity market, with signs of recovery in retail participation and foreign fund inflows, but also significant selling pressure from national teams and a decline in onshore mutual fund AUM. The overall sentiment suggests cautious optimism as selling pressures may ease and retail activity improves [11][39][56].

Chinese chip designer Montage is planning to price its Hong Kong listing at the highest possible figure, according to sources, putting it on course to raise $902 million https://t.co/f9KzW8d4Zt ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The report centers on the **China Technology and Communications** sector, with a specific emphasis on AI opportunities in computing, networking, edges, and agents [1][30]. - **Market Outlook**: Despite three years of outperformance compared to MSCI China, there are high expectations and macro/sector risks anticipated for 2026 [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Valuation Trends**: H shares are preferred over A shares, with H shares trading 0.5 standard deviations above the 10-year historical forward P/E averages, while A shares are trading above 2 standard deviations [1][30]. - **AI Opportunities**: The report emphasizes embracing AI opportunities across various sectors, particularly in computing and networking, with localization in China being a significant factor [1]. - **Risks Identified**: Key risks include upstream supply issues, material cost increases, and downstream project delivery challenges [1]. - **Stock Recommendations**: - **Hardware/Components**: Luxshare, DSBJ, Lens Tech, Conant, TCL are preferred. - **Semiconductors**: Montage is highlighted. - **Software**: Kingdee is favored. - **Communication Infrastructure**: Eoptolink and TFC are recommended [1][2]. Market Projections - **Smartphone Shipments**: A forecasted decline of 5% YoY for global and China smartphone shipments in 2026, with an increase in average selling price (ASP) by 7% and 5% respectively [1]. - **Foldable Smartphones**: Anticipated shipments of foldable smartphones are projected to reach 20 million in 2025, 29 million in 2026, and 45 million in 2027, driven by the foldable iPhone [1]. - **Camera Lens Shipments**: Expected to reach 4.4 billion units in 2025, with a slight decline to 4.2 billion in 2026, and back to 4.4 billion in 2027 [1]. - **AI Glasses**: Global shipments are expected to reach 15 million in 2026, representing a 123% YoY increase [1]. - **AI-PCB Demand**: Total demand for AI-PCB is projected to be RMB 96 billion (US$ 13 billion) in 2026, with a growth rate of 101% YoY [1]. - **Optical Transceiver Market**: Expected to reach US$ 37.4 billion in 2026, with significant shipment increases [1]. Subsector Preferences - **Sector Performance**: Semiconductor sector is expected to lag behind hardware and communication infrastructure, with a projected earnings growth of 52% YoY for semiconductors in 2026 [23]. - **Investment Strategy**: Preference for semiconductor stocks, followed by communication and hardware, with IT services and software being the least favored [1][30]. Additional Insights - **Foreign Investment Trends**: Increased foreign investment in A-share tech names, with a notable rise in holdings in the overall A-share technology sector [13]. - **IPO Activity**: Anticipation of several IPOs in 1H26, which could provide quality tech names for investors [1][30]. - **Market Volatility**: Expected volatility in 1H26 due to high expectations for AI and potential market corrections [30]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the China Technology and Communications sector's outlook for 2026.

Rambus Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Rambus operates in three main business segments: patent licensing, silicon IP, and product business focused on memory interface technologies and data centers [3][4][6] - The patent licensing business generates approximately $210 million annually, characterized by long-term contracts and high margins [3] - The silicon IP business, which includes security and high-speed controller solutions, generated $120 million last year and is expected to grow at 10-15% annually [3][4] - The product business, dedicated to data centers, was valued at $240 million last year and is projected to grow by about 40% year-over-year [4][6] Market Dynamics and Growth Drivers - The total addressable market (TAM) for Rambus's RCD chip is estimated at $800 million, with additional opportunities from companion chips and mRDIMMs, leading to a combined market opportunity of approximately $2 billion [8][10] - The growth of the server market is a key proxy for Rambus's growth, with traditional servers expected to grow mid-single digits and AI servers at a faster rate [13][15] - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 has significantly increased Rambus's market share in RCDs from 25% to 40% [8][35] - The introduction of PMICs (Power Management Integrated Circuits) is expected to contribute to revenue growth, with expectations of high single-digit contributions in Q4 [36] Competitive Landscape - Rambus faces competition in the RCD market primarily from Renesas and Montage, while the PMIC market includes Renesas and MPS [37][39] - The complexity of memory subsystems is increasing due to higher core counts in processors, creating more opportunities for Rambus's products [30][71] Technological Innovations - Rambus is actively involved in developing HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) IP, which is integrated into GPUs and accelerators [51] - The introduction of mRDIMMs is expected to significantly increase content per module, potentially multiplying dollar content by four [90][94] - Rambus is also engaged in the development of SoCamm, a new architecture that aims to improve signal integrity and power management in memory systems [55][66] Financial Performance and Projections - Rambus has maintained strong gross margins, with patent licensing at 100%, silicon IP at around 95%, and chip business margins targeted at 60-65% [105] - The company anticipates operating income margins of 40-45% driven by growth in the chip business, which now represents over 50% of total revenue [106] - Rambus has a robust balance sheet and strong cash generation, allowing for continued investment in organic and inorganic growth opportunities [116] Client Market Opportunities - Rambus is exploring opportunities in the client market, with a TAM of approximately $200 million, particularly as speeds exceed 6.4 gigatransfers per second [112][115] - The company has introduced power management solutions for the client space, which are expected to gain traction over time [115] Capital Allocation Strategy - Rambus has a disciplined approach to capital allocation, focusing on organic investments, strategic M&A, and returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks [117][118] Conclusion - Rambus is well-positioned in the memory subsystem market with a diversified business model, strong growth prospects, and a commitment to innovation and customer solutions [120]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for several companies, including Cambricon, SMIC, AMEC, and VeriSilicon to "Buy" [3][70]. Core Insights - The semiconductor demand in the China market continues to grow, supported by advancements in generative AI, RISC V technology, and local suppliers gaining market share [2][4]. - Integrated circuit (IC) production in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0% in April 2025, while the import value increased by 8.9% year-on-year in May 2025 [4][22]. - The total revenue for semiconductors in China was reported at US$16.2 billion in April 2025, reflecting a 14.1% year-on-year increase [5][38]. Summary by Sections IC Production and Imports - IC production volume in April 2025 was 42 billion units, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [4][39]. - IC import volume increased by 9.9% year-on-year to 50 billion units in May 2025, while the import value rose by 8.9% year-on-year to US$34 billion [11][32]. - The average selling price (ASP) of IC imports decreased by 1% year-on-year in May 2025 [11][24]. Revenue Growth - The semiconductor sector's total revenue in April 2025 was up 14.1% year-on-year, indicating sustained growth in the industry [5][38]. - Taiwan's semiconductor companies reported a revenue growth of 25.3% year-on-year in May 2025 [9][42]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The days of inventory (DOI) for China's electronics sector was 59 days in April 2025, lower than the historical average, indicating a healthy inventory level [28][9]. - Increased capital expenditure (capex) plans from local suppliers are expected to drive further market share expansion in the semiconductor sector [4][15].

Investment Rating - Industry view is cautious [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a cautious outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and memory sectors, with a focus on potential recovery in the second half of 2025 impacted by tariff costs [7] - Long-term demand drivers include the reacceleration of AI semiconductor demand due to generative AI, which is expected to proliferate across various verticals outside the semiconductor industry [7] - The report indicates that the global semiconductor revenue peaked in the third quarter of 2024, with a forecasted decline in semiconductor exports from Korea since February 2025 [12][19] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Dynamics - The cyclical downturn is characterized by a shift from euphoria to pessimism, as indicated by the SOX Index performance [8] - Historical data shows that declines in semiconductor inventory days have historically signaled positive stock price appreciation [41] - The report notes that the domestic GPU supply chain may face dilution due to shipments of NVIDIA B30, impacting inferencing AI demand [7] Memory and Logic Cycles - Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with the report suggesting that memory share price peaks lead logic semis [42][43] - The report forecasts a significant increase in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market size, projecting it to reach US$64 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 107% from 2023 to 2027 [67] AI and Technology Trends - The report emphasizes the shift in value from hardware to application in the AI investment stack, indicating a growing focus on software and application development [73] - It is projected that local GPU revenue in China could grow to RMB 287 billion by 2027, driven by advancements in local manufacturing capabilities [90]

Summary of Rambus Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Rambus - **Industry**: Semiconductors, specifically focusing on memory technologies and silicon IP Key Points Demand Environment - Rambus experienced strong demand in the server market, particularly for AI servers, leading to a 52% growth in product revenue compared to the same quarter last year [3][4] - The silicon IP business is also seeing increased demand as companies develop custom chips for AI applications [3] Market Size and Growth - The market for RCD (Register Clock Driver) chips is estimated at $750 million, with an additional $600 million from new companionship chips introduced in DDR5 memory modules [6][7] - The overall market is expanding due to increased bandwidth and capacity requirements driven by AI and traditional servers [9][10] Competitive Dynamics - Rambus holds a market share of over 40% in RCD chips, with a goal to reach 50% [12][14] - The company has invested early in product development, which has helped secure its position in the market [14] Product Development and Innovations - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 has necessitated the development of new chips, including power management and temperature sensors, which Rambus is actively pursuing [37][39] - Rambus is also developing MRDIMM chipsets, which will double memory capacity and bandwidth, with a ramp expected in 2026 [42][44] Silicon IP Business - The silicon IP business is projected to grow at 10% to 15% annually, driven by demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) controllers [54] - Rambus is engaged with customers 18 months to 2 years ahead of product launches, ensuring they meet market needs [51][53] Financial Outlook - Rambus aims for a long-term gross margin target of 60% to 65%, with recent performance in the range of 61% to 63% [56] - The company is focused on maintaining margins through disciplined pricing and cost savings [57] Tariffs and Market Risks - Rambus's patent licensing business is unaffected by tariffs, providing a solid revenue base of $210 million with 100% margin [29][30] - The company is monitoring potential indirect impacts from supply chain shifts due to tariffs but currently reports no direct effects [32][34] Future Opportunities - The company anticipates growth in the client market as high-end PCs increasingly require advanced signal integrity solutions [46][48] - Rambus is prepared to adapt to market changes, including potential developments in LPDDR solutions for servers [20][25] Additional Insights - The competitive landscape includes two main competitors, Montage and Renaissance, with Rambus focusing on securing supply chain stability [15] - The company is actively involved in industry standards discussions through JEDEC, ensuring alignment with market needs [27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Rambus conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, market dynamics, and future growth opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for several companies in the semiconductor sector to "Buy," including Cambricon, SMIC, AMEC, and VeriSilicon [2][62]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is experiencing a positive trend, driven by increased market demand, particularly in advanced technologies such as generative AI and ADAS [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant year-over-year growth in integrated circuit (IC) production and imports, indicating a recovery from previous weak seasons [1][3]. - The overall semiconductor revenue in China showed a 9% year-over-year increase in March 2025, reflecting a steady recovery from earlier months [4][27]. Summary by Sections IC Production and Imports - IC production volume in March 2025 increased by 9.2% year-over-year, reaching 42 billion units, compared to a 4.4% increase in January and February 2025 [1][25]. - IC import value rose by 11.1% year-over-year to US$35 billion in April 2025, while import volume increased by 7.6% year-over-year to 50 billion units [9][19]. - The average selling price (ASP) of IC imports increased by 3.3% year-over-year in April 2025 [1][21]. Market Demand and Revenue - The report indicates that the semiconductor market is benefiting from strong company-specific drivers, including new product launches and market share gains [2][3]. - Taiwan's semiconductor revenue grew by 34.1% year-over-year in April 2025, with foundry revenues up by 43.7% year-over-year [7][8]. - The total revenue for China's semiconductor sector reached US$15.4 billion in March 2025, marking a continued growth trend [4][27]. Inventory and Supply Chain - The days of inventory (DOI) for China's electronics sector was reported at 53 days in March 2025, consistent with historical averages [1][17]. - The report notes a healthy inventory level, suggesting stability in the supply chain for semiconductor manufacturers [4][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the semiconductor sector, including ACM Research, AMEC, AccoTest, Cambricon, Horizon Robotics, Montage, NAURA, Piotech, and Will Semi [13]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to see increased capital expenditure (capex) in the coming years, driven by local demand for advanced semiconductor capacities amid tariff uncertainties [2]. - There is a significant focus on high-end lithography systems, which are critical for producing advanced node semiconductors, as existing tools may soon become obsolete [3][4]. - The technology gap in lithography remains substantial, with a need for more skilled talent and a robust supply chain to support research and development [4][6]. Summary by Sections Investment in High-End SPEs - The industry is prioritizing investment in high-end lithography systems due to export controls on existing technologies, with a noted urgent demand for these systems in China [3]. Technology Gap - The complexity of lithography systems presents a significant challenge, requiring time for R&D and a greater pool of talent to expedite development [4][6]. Lithography Ecosystem - The lithography ecosystem in China is still in its early stages, with supply chain companies collaborating to develop necessary systems, although challenges remain in producing highly customized lens components [6].