Summary of Pony AI (PONY.O/2026.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Pony AI Inc. - **Founded**: 2016 - **Industry**: Autonomous Mobility - **Key Operations**: Operates robotaxi services in four tier-1 cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) leveraging vehicle-agnostic Virtual Driver technology and full-stack autonomous driving technology [13][18] Key Events and Catalysts 1. **4Q25 Results**: Expected to be decent with a one-off gain from Moore Threads investment, estimated at a ~100x return, which will be reflected in the 4Q25 P&L [2][11] 2. **Waymo Financing Round**: Waymo is reportedly valued at 280x 2025 P/S, which may lead to a re-rating of Pony AI's valuation currently at 87x 2025 P/S. This financing round could occur in 1Q26 [3][11] 3. **Southbound Stock Connect Entry**: Anticipated entry into Southbound stock connect around June 5, 2026, which may improve investor sentiment. Feedback indicates a potential shift in fund flow towards undervalued tech-AI names [4][11] 4. **US-China Competition**: Increased competition may prompt China to adopt a more aggressive policy on ADAS/Robotaxi, potentially increasing domestic development spending [7][8][11] 5. **New Generation Robotaxi**: Expected to reduce Autonomous Driving Kit (ADK) costs by 20% starting April 2026, with current BOM costs estimated at Rmb130k [9][11] 6. **Asset-Light Business Model**: Development is progressing well, with a target to exceed 3,000 Robotaxi units by the end of 2026, up from 1,159 units at the end of 2025 [10][11] Financial Metrics - **Current Price**: US$16.09 (Market Cap: US$5.636 billion) [11] - **Target Price**: US$24.50 (derived from DCF with a 17.1% WACC) [15][20] - **Valuation Multiples**: Target price translates to 2030E P/S and P/E multiples of 2.9x and 28.0x [15][20] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Buy/High Risk - **Advantages**: - Regulatory advantages as an early mover in the domestic market - Focus on L4 advanced autonomous driving technology - Cost advantages with a vehicle cost of US$38k, significantly lower than competitors [14][19] Risks - **High Risk Rating**: Due to loss-making status and uncertainties in robotaxi development - **Key Risks**: - Technological and commercialization challenges - Business model uncertainties - Safety and reliability concerns - Intense competition and regulatory risks [16][21] Additional Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: Positive sentiment is building around Pony AI's potential market entry and upcoming financial results, which could drive stock performance in the near term [4][11] - **Market Dynamics**: The evolving landscape of US-China tech competition may create opportunities for accelerated growth in the autonomous vehicle sector [7][8][11]

Summary of Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on AI, cloud services, and autonomous driving Key Points Kunlunxin Spin-off - Baidu announced that Kunlunxin submitted an application for a listing on the HK Stock Exchange on January 1, 2026, as part of a proposed spin-off through a Global Offering of Kunlunxin shares [1] - Following the spin-off, Baidu expects Kunlunxin to remain a subsidiary, with Baidu holding a controlling stake of 59% as of August 2025 [2] Financial Implications - The potential spin-off of Kunlun could unlock significant value for Baidu, with estimates suggesting a valuation range of US$3 billion to US$11 billion for Baidu's 59% stake in Kunlun, which could represent 6% to 23% of Baidu's current market cap [8] - If applying a 40X 2026 P/S multiple, the implied valuation for Baidu could reach US$22 billion, equating to 45% of its latest market cap [8] Sales and Revenue Projections - Kunlun's total sales are estimated to have reached approximately RMB 3.5 billion in 2025, with projections of RMB 6.5 billion for 2026 [6] - External sales from Kunlun, which were insignificant as of late 2025, are expected to grow rapidly, potentially accounting for 14% of total cloud sales by 2026 [6] - Subscription-based revenue is projected to contribute close to 30% of cloud revenue, indicating a shift towards more recurring revenue streams [6] Strategic Positioning - Kunlun is a critical component of Baidu's full-stack AI cloud capabilities, which includes chips, deep learning frameworks, and applications across various industries [6] - The launch of the Kunlun P800 chip has garnered orders from diverse sectors, including internet platforms, telecommunications, finance, and government [6][7] Future Expectations - Upcoming announcements are anticipated regarding new orders and product upgrades for Kunlun, as well as updates on the separate listing process [8] - Baidu is expected to revise its shareholder return policy in Q1 2026 and provide further details on steps to unlock asset value [8] Market Context - Baidu's cloud segment is expected to grow significantly, driven by strong demand for AI accelerator-based cloud services, which saw a year-over-year growth of 128% in Q3 2025 [11] - The overall cloud segment is valued at 5X price to 2026E sales, with traditional CPU-based revenue having lower profit margins compared to GPU-based subscription services [11] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include competition in the AI cloud space, slower-than-expected growth in Robotaxi fleets, and potential declines in search advertising revenue impacting overall margins [24] Valuation and Price Target - Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Baidu with a 12-month price target of US$155, reflecting a potential upside of 3.1% from the current price [25] Additional Insights - Baidu is transitioning from a traditional advertising-focused model to a more diversified revenue stream, with non-search business expected to account for over 50% of core revenue by 2027 [23] - The company is taking proactive measures to enhance shareholder returns, which is reflected in its valuation approach [23]

Core Insights - Global investors are increasingly investing in Chinese AI companies, seeking the next big opportunity like "DeepSeek" while diversifying their portfolios [1][3] - Concerns about a potential AI bubble in the U.S. market are prompting investors to look towards China, where government support for tech independence is seen as a positive factor [1][2] Investment Trends - Ruffer, a UK asset manager, is focusing on Alibaba due to its AI chip unit and significant investments in cloud infrastructure, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics between the U.S. and China [2][3] - UBS Global Wealth Management has rated Chinese tech as "most attractive," highlighting the benefits of diversification and strong policy support for AI development in China [3] Market Valuation - The U.S. Nasdaq trades at 31 times earnings, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech trades at 24 times, making Chinese stocks like Alibaba and Baidu more appealing for investment [4][16] ETF Investments - KraneShares' KWEB ETF, which includes Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, has seen significant growth, reaching nearly $9 billion this year, reflecting strong investor interest in Chinese tech [6][16] - Another KraneShares ETF focuses on Chinese onshore tech stocks, including Cambricon and Montage Technology, which have also experienced growth [7][16] Competitive Landscape - While the U.S. leads in AI innovation, China is noted for its strengths in engineering, manufacturing, and power supply, providing a competitive edge in the AI race [7][16] - The urgency in the AI sector is drawing attention to Chinese companies, as noted by KraneShares' Chief Investment Officer [6][16] Company Performance - Chinese AI chipmaker MetaX saw a 700% increase in its Shanghai debut, while Moore Threads rose 400%, indicating a strong market response despite warnings about valuation support driven by hype [10][16] - Fund managers caution that many listed chip companies lack valuation support and are primarily driven by market hype [10] Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to selectively add companies benefiting from China's self-reliance push in AI and semiconductors while maintaining exposure to global leaders [11][12][16] - There is an expectation of increased investment in AI and robotics, with a focus on identifying potential leaders in these high-tech segments [12][16] Popular Companies - Key Chinese AI companies attracting investor interest include Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, MetaX, Moore Threads, and Cambricon [14][16]

Core Insights - Demand for Chinese AI firms is driven by Beijing's push for technological self-reliance and rapid listings of domestic chipmakers, indicating a strategic effort to close the technology gap with the U.S. [1][16] - Foreign investors are increasingly viewing China as a viable AI investment destination due to policy support for local chipmakers and software developers, coinciding with concerns over high valuations of U.S.-listed AI stocks [2][16] - Large Chinese technology companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are benefiting from this shift, attracting investor interest due to their investments in AI chips and cloud infrastructure [3][16] Investment Trends - A wave of AI startups listing on mainland exchanges and in Hong Kong has strengthened investor appetite, highlighted by the rise of DeepSeek, which has reignited global interest in China's AI capabilities [4][5][16] - The Sino-U.S. technology rivalry is a central factor driving demand for Chinese AI assets, with strong policy backing and rapid AI monetization being key elements of renewed investor interest [7][16] - Valuation gaps between U.S. and Chinese tech stocks are influencing investment decisions, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index offering cheaper access to Chinese AI leaders compared to the Nasdaq [8][16] Market Dynamics - New investment products, including exchange-traded funds focused on Chinese tech stocks, have seen strong inflows, reflecting rising confidence in the sector's long-term prospects [10][16] - China's AI and semiconductor industries are demonstrating rapid innovation, particularly in chip design and manufacturing, with competitive advantages in engineering scale and manufacturing efficiency [11][16] - U.S. technology restrictions have reshaped China's innovation strategy, prompting domestic firms to invest heavily in core technologies and develop alternatives [12][16] Cautionary Notes - Some fund managers caution that recent market moves may be ahead of fundamentals, with concerns that the sector may be driven more by hype than by valuation support [13][16] - Skeptics argue that many listed chip companies lack proven earnings visibility, making them vulnerable to corrections, leading some investors to prefer established firms with disciplined AI spending [14][16] - Market experts advise a selective approach, focusing on companies benefiting from China's self-reliance push in AI and semiconductors while maintaining exposure to global technology leaders [15][16]

Moore Threads, a leading Chinese artificial intelligence chipmaker, plans to put most of the funds raised through its recent listing into banking products https://t.co/6oLvkSNvVU ...

Industry Trend - Investors are increasingly excited about the prospects for China's AI chip advancement [1] - The euphoria surrounding China's AI chip advancement may be misplaced [1] Company Highlight - Moore Threads had China's most successful debut since 2019 this month [1]

Let's start with with Moore Threads, because it is, of course, a very anticipated listing and you're seeing that excitement being very much reflected so far in its pricing today. Good morning. The excitement is really through the roof.This this company is one of China's most hopeful GPU designers. It does not make chips per su. They basically designed a GPU, a similar job as what NVIDIA is doing.But if you asked me if how many chips they can sell next year, I have to say it's not going to be big. Not just c ...

Could the next Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) really be hiding in plain sight on the Chinese market? With Moore Threads, a company many refer to as the "Nvidia of China,†soaring around 425% on its public market debut, many investors might be wondering if it's a good idea to hedge one's bets with the fast-rising Chinese company, especially given how close the U.S.-China AI race might actually be. next stay Undoubtedly, with Nvidia's top boss Jensen Huang warning that the U.S. is not all that far ahead of China, perhap ...

Market Valuation - Moore Threads' IPO gives it a market value of almost $40 billion [1] Leadership Impact - The IPO transformed Moore Threads' founder, an ex-Nvidia executive, into one of China's latest AI billionaires [1]

Two Chinese chipmakers are attracting strong retail investor demand, buoyed by industry peer Moore Threads' stellar debut https://t.co/JGIvrk7fbC ...