Prediction markets are exploding into mainstream chatter, and while Kalshi and Polymarket grab headlines, publicly traded plays may be the smarter way to invest in the boom.Prediction markets have ballooned from a niche corner of finance into a $63.5 billion trading volume phenomenon in 2025 alone, a fourfold increase from the prior year. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are actively capturing headlines and market share, but neither is publicly traded... yet.If you want to ride this wave through the sto ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：君实财经） Circle (CRCL) 2025 年第四季度财报电话会议记录 日期 2026年2月25日星期三上午8点（美国东部时间）电话参与者 首席财务官 — 杰里米·福克斯-吉恩 投资者关系副总裁——约翰·安德鲁斯要点 USDC 流通量——截至期末为 753 亿美元，同比增长 72%，其中平台内 USDC 增长 5.6 倍至 125 亿美 元，占总流通量的 17%。 链上交易量——本季度接近 12 万亿美元，同比增长 247%，表明数字美元的实用性和普及程度不断提 高。 总收入和储备金收入——7.7亿美元，同比增长77%，主要得益于美国存款账户增长和其他收入组成部 分。 调整后 EBITDA为 1.67 亿美元，同比增长 412%，调整后 EBITDA 利润率为 54%。 扣除分销成本后的收入利润率 (RLDC)为 40.1%，本季度环比增长 0.6 个百分点，主要原因是其他收入 增加。 分销、交易和其他成本——4.61亿美元，同比增长52%，其中包括上一年向一家大型合作伙伴支付的 6000万美元一次性款项。 其他收入——3700万美元，其中包括来自区块链网络合作的2470万美元和 ...

TL;DR: Prediction markets reached $9B (Polymarket) and $11B (Kalshi) valuations at the end of 2025, yet 0% of this capital can be borrowed against, creating DeFi's most extreme utilization gap. Token lending achieves 40-80% utilization, while NFT lending sits at ~1% and prediction market lending at 0%, leaving billions in digital wealth functionally trapped. The CFTC's approval of prediction markets as legitimate derivatives and ICE's $2B investment signal institutional acceptance that transforms "ga ...

Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has become a top betting platform for future events since its launch in 2020. It hosted nearly half a million monthly active traders as of last October, according to The Block, even though it's been banned in over a dozen countries. Polymarket is popular because it allows traders to bet on economic data, elections, geopolitical events, tech product launches, and other news events. It's also easy to use because its traders bet on simple "yes" or "no" ...

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the increasing relevance of prediction markets in providing reliable information amidst a landscape of misinformation and uncertainty [3][4][22] - Prediction markets are posited as more accurate than traditional polling methods, particularly in forecasting election outcomes [4][19][22] - Concerns about market manipulation and insider trading are highlighted, indicating potential flaws in the reliability of prediction markets [5][21][23] Prediction Markets Overview - Companies like Cal Poly Market position themselves as trustworthy sources of truth in a world filled with misinformation [3] - Prediction markets have shown high accuracy in predicting election outcomes, especially for major races, outperforming traditional polls [4][19] - The accuracy of prediction markets is attributed to their method of aggregating information based on financial stakes rather than personal opinions [18][19] Market Regulation and Oversight - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates prediction markets in the U.S., overseeing what contracts are permissible [9][23] - There is an ongoing debate about whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling, which would subject them to stricter regulations and taxation [24] - Current taxation for earnings from prediction markets is treated as regular income, unlike traditional gambling platforms [24] Market Dynamics and User Experience - KALSI operates under U.S. regulations, while Poly Market primarily functions overseas, leading to differences in market offerings and regulatory oversight [9][14] - The user interface of prediction markets is noted to be simpler and more user-friendly compared to traditional sports betting platforms, attracting users [15] - A significant portion of KALSI's activity is focused on sports betting, while Poly Market's U.S. operations are entirely sports-related [14] Case Studies and Examples - An example is provided where traders on Poly Market closely monitored a speech by Jerome Powell, demonstrating how specific words can influence market behavior [26][28] - The incident illustrates the challenges in determining factual outcomes in prediction markets, highlighting the potential for ambiguity [28]

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) reported its Q4 2025 earnings on Feb. 25 before the opening bell, with investors closely watching whether the stablecoin issuer can pivot beyond its interest-fueled revenue model as macro headwinds intensify. The crypto firm, popular for its USDC stablecoin, reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43, beating Wall Street estimates of $0.35. It generated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $167 million, a rise of 410% quarter-over-q ...

Six Democratic senators are demanding CFTC Chairman Michael Selig ban prediction market contracts that resolve on someone dying, a city being captured or a NASA rocket exploding.The letter, led by Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), goes further than just the three examples. The senators are asking the CFTC to reiterate that contracts involving gaming, sports, war, terrorism, assassination or similar activities are barred from being listed, traded or cleared under the Commodity Exchange Act. They also want CFTC Ch ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong positive outlook for the fintech sector, with significant growth in venture capital (VC) activity and deal values, suggesting a favorable investment environment for 2026. Core Insights - Fintech VC deal value surged in Q4 2025 to $17.3 billion, a 114.3% year-over-year increase, bringing the full-year total to $42.8 billion, the highest since 2022 [9][11] - Median fintech deal sizes increased across all stages in 2025, reflecting a shift toward larger rounds and higher capital concentration, driven by AI premiums [9][12] - B2C fintech drove Q4 megadeals, while enterprise fintech is expected to dominate investor attention in 2026 [9][13] - Exit activity reached its highest level since 2021, with $67.6 billion in total value, indicating a robust IPO and deal pipeline for 2026 [9][21] Fintech Landscape - The fintech landscape includes various segments such as alternative lending, capital markets, commercial finance, payments, and wealthtech [7] Quarterly Analysis - VC funding for fintech companies was robust in Q4 2025, with a total deal value of $17.3 billion, up 86.7% quarter-over-quarter and 114.3% year-over-year [11] - The overall median deal size in 2025 was $6 million, up 25.4% from 2024, with significant increases across all stages [12] - Enterprise fintech captured 58.3% of total fintech VC deal value in 2025, while B2C fintech saw larger deals in Q4 2025 [13] Thematic Updates - Stablecoin adoption is expected to grow significantly in 2026, with a market cap increase of 45.9% year-over-year to $299 billion [34][35] - Tokenization of real-world assets is accelerating, with major financial institutions adopting blockchain technologies for efficiency [38][39] - Prediction markets are emerging as a significant financial asset class, with weekly volumes surpassing $5 billion [45][46] Fintech VC Deal Summary - In 2025, the top fintech segments by VC deal value were credit & banking ($8.5 billion), wealthtech ($8.3 billion), and payments ($6.5 billion) [19] - Notable Q4 deals included Revolut's $3 billion round and Polymarket's $2 billion Series D [20] VC Exits - In 2025, disclosed VC exit value rose 272.2% year-over-year to $67.6 billion, with a significant number of public listings contributing to this increase [21][28] - Key acquisitions in Q4 included Xero's $2.5 billion acquisition of Melio and Ripple's $1.3 billion acquisition of Hidden Road [24][63]

When Robert DeNault joined Kalshi’s four-person legal team in October, it was under the assumption that his background investigating white collar crimes could come in handy.  Now serving as the prediction market’s head of enforcement, the former associate at law firm White & Case told Decrypt that Kalshi is preparing to disclose a wave of disciplinary actions that have been taken against users—the result of a monthslong effort to clean up a “backlog” of potential trading violations. “It’s taken a big chunk ...

Chainlink (LINK), the leading oracle network that supplies data to smart contracts, is showing a striking divergence. The token has dropped more than 70% from last year’s peak. However, Grayscale Investments' holdings have climbed to a new high. Additional data points highlight growing institutional confidence in the project’s long-term potential, despite persistent short-term selling pressure. Grayscale Holds More Than 5 Million LINK in 2026 According to data from blockchain analytics platform Arkham I ...