February 23, 2026 01:41 PM GMT China/Hong Kong Consumer | Asia Pacific Post-CNY F&B and Gold & Jewelry Channel Check Takeaways The call with a multi-categories distributor reflects improvement in demand in this CNY holiday season, which is in line with market expectation and our previous pre-CNY channel checks. Key Takeaways Liquor - Moutai and WLY saw growth YTD in the distributor's regions as lower pricing drove good volume. They have completed their Feitian Moutai orders for 1Q (40% of annual budget). La ...

Summary of Eastroc Beverage Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Eastroc Beverage - **Stock Tickers**: 9980.HK / 605499.SS - **Industry**: Beverage Industry, specifically focusing on functional and energy beverages Key Points Coverage Initiation and Target Price - Coverage on Eastroc's H-shares initiated with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HK$408.8, aligning with the target price for its A-shares [1] - Anticipation of no persistent valuation discount between H-shares and A-shares due to limited high-quality beverage companies in the HK market [1] Financial Forecasts - Forecasted net profit (NP) growth of 27% in 2026 and 22% in 2027, marking the fastest growth within the China consumer staples sector [1] - Expected sales revenue for 2023 at Rmb11,263 million, increasing to Rmb15,839 million in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 32% [42] Market Position and Share - Eastroc holds the No.1 market share in China's energy beverage market, increasing from 5.3% in 2015 to 43.7% in 2024 [2] - Sales from non-Guangdong markets rose from 61% in 2022 to 76% in the first half of 2025, indicating successful nationwide expansion [2] Product Expansion and Sales Growth - Expansion into the sports beverage category resulted in sales growth of 2.8x year-over-year in 2024 and 2.1x in the first half of 2025 [2] - Contribution from sports and other beverages increased from 4% and 5% in 2023 to 14% and 8% in the first half of 2025, respectively [2] Digitalization and Operational Strategy - Strong digital infrastructure and partnerships with over 3,000 distributors enhance targeted marketing and operational efficiency [3] - Eastroc's strategy focuses on stable pricing and fair returns across the value chain, contrasting with competitors that rely on aggressive price hikes [3] Use of Proceeds from Hong Kong Offering - Planned allocation of proceeds includes: - 36% for enhancing production capacity and supply chain upgrades - 15% for brand building and consumer engagement - 11% for nationwide expansion and channel network refinement - 12% for overseas business expansion and potential acquisitions - 10% for advancing digitalization capabilities - 6% for product development and portfolio expansion - 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [40] Financial Metrics and Performance - Gross profit margin (GPM) projected to be 43.1% in 2023, increasing to 45.7% by 2026 [42] - Net profit margin (NPM) expected to rise from 18.1% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2027 [42] - Significant year-over-year growth in net profit forecasted, with a 42% increase in 2023 and a 63% increase in 2024 [42] Competitive Landscape - Eastroc is positioned as a top buy in the China consumer sector, alongside Nongfu Spring and UPC, while Tingyi is rated as a sell [1] Additional Insights - The beverage market in China is projected to grow significantly, with functional beverages expected to reach a market size of Rmb281 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 11.0% from 2024 to 2029 [10] - The competitive landscape shows Eastroc's strong branding and operational capabilities as key factors in maintaining its market leadership [2][3] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Eastroc Beverage's market position, financial forecasts, strategic initiatives, and competitive landscape.

Summary of the Investor Call on China Consumer Staples: Spirits & Beverage Industry Overview - The call focused on the Spirits & Beverage industry, particularly in the Hunan region, discussing growth targets and pricing pressures for major brands including Moutai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, and Fen Wine [1][2]. Key Points 1. Wholesale Price Pressure - The wholesale price for premium spirits is under pressure, with Feitian's price expected to approach Rmb1,499 or lower during the non-peak season. This may decline further during the Chinese New Year (CNY) period, potentially stimulating demand and reducing channel inventory pressure [1]. - Non-standard Moutai faces significant inventory and profitability challenges, with inventory levels exceeding two months, contributing approximately 30% of volume and 50% of value share for Moutai Spirits in 2025 year-to-date [1]. 2. Prepayment Policies and Growth Targets - Moutai and Fen Wine are targeting a 5% growth for 2026, while Wuliangye and Fen Wine have set prepayment requirements of 50% and 40% respectively for the first quarter of 2026 [2]. - Effective prepayment prices are expected to decrease, particularly for Wuliangye, with prices projected to be Rmb940, Rmb870-880, and Rmb800 in sequential quarters of 2025 [2]. 3. Retail Sales Expectations - Retail sales expectations for spirits are weak heading into the 2026 CNY, with an anticipated overall decline of approximately 15% in spirits retail demand. Specific declines of 5-10% are expected for Feitian Moutai and Common Wuliangye [3]. - Local brands such as King's Luck and Gujing may perform relatively better compared to pan-national upper mid-end brands [3]. 4. Beverage Growth Targets - Nongfu Spring is targeting a 13% growth in 2026, expecting water volume to return to 2023 levels. Eastroc aims for over 25% growth in both Hunan and nationwide [8]. - Wahaha has not set specific contract targets for 2026, while Tingyi is still aiming for positive sales growth despite low single-digit growth or decline in noodle and beverage segments for the third quarter to November [8]. Additional Insights - The expert highlighted that channel inventory pressure is accumulating for Fen Wine due to prepayment requirements, with inventory levels at approximately three months and wholesale prices decreasing from Rmb360-380 to Rmb350 [2]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the spirits market, with significant challenges in maintaining pricing power and managing inventory levels across major brands [1][3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Sector - **Focus**: Raw Materials Price Trends and Stock Implications for Hong Kong/China Consumer Stocks Key Raw Material Price Trends - **Milk Powder Prices**: Declined by 2.2% MoM in October 2025, with a YTD increase of 18% YoY. The average price was US$3,503 per MT as of November 4, 2025 [18][19] - **Corn Prices**: Decreased by 5.3% MoM in October 2025 [28] - **Hog/Pork Prices**: - Hog prices fell to Rmb12.8/kg, down 8.8% MoM in October 2025 [19] - Pork retail prices decreased by 3.8% MoM [19] - **Metal Prices**: Copper prices increased by 5.9% MoM, with a YTD rise of 11.1% [22] Stock Implications - **Yili (600887.SS)**: - Overweight rating; raw milk prices have declined steadily YTD, expected to stabilize towards the end of the year [2] - **Mengniu (2319.HK)**: - Overweight rating; similar trends in raw milk prices as Yili [2] - **Angel Yeast (600298.SS)**: - Overweight rating; molasses prices down by ~20%, which may positively impact earnings if ASP is maintained [3] - **Hengan (1044.HK)**: - Equal-weight rating; pulp prices have fluctuated, potentially easing margin pressure on tissue business [3] - **Tingyi (0322.HK) and Uni-President China (0220.HK)**: - Equal-weight rating; lower PET and sugar prices should benefit beverage margins, but palm oil price spikes may negatively impact noodle margins [4] - **Want Want (0151.HK)**: - Equal-weight rating; facing raw material cost headwinds, plans to offset costs through substitution and efficiency improvements [5] - **Beer Companies**: - Continued benefits from lower barley costs, but diminishing tailwinds from aluminum prices [6] Additional Insights - **Competitive Dynamics**: The beverage industry's competitive landscape will significantly influence margin trends in the second half of 2025 [4] - **Raw Milk Supply**: Expected to stabilize with more balanced supply-demand dynamics as upstream supply declines [2] - **Cost Management Strategies**: Companies are adopting various strategies to manage cost pressures, including substituting raw materials and improving operational efficiencies [5] Conclusion The conference call highlighted significant trends in raw material prices affecting the China consumer sector, with implications for various companies. The overall sentiment suggests cautious optimism as companies adapt to changing market conditions and raw material costs.

Summary of China Beverages Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Beverages** industry, particularly the **ready-to-drink (RTD)** segment and competition from **freshly-made drinks (FMD)**. - The covered China Beverages names have outperformed the MSCI China Staples Index, with an average increase of approximately **20% YTD** compared to **17% YTD** for the index [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Cautious Outlook**: The company adopts a more selective stance in the beverage sector due to rising competition and cautious pricing trends expected into **2026**. Increased promotions and a shift towards larger pack sizes are anticipated by the end of **2025** [1][4]. - **Top Picks**: **Eastroc** is highlighted as a top pick due to its potential for market share gain and portfolio expansion, supported by strong channel execution and resilience against FMD competition [1][4]. - **Nongfu's Performance**: Nongfu is expected to recover market share in packaged water, with an estimated **80%+** market share in the sugar-free tea segment by the end of this year, up from **65%-70%** in **2024** [1][4]. - **Earnings Adjustments**: Earnings for **UPC** and **Tingyi** have been adjusted down by **3%-8%** and **1%-3%** respectively for **2025E-27E** due to slower sales growth trends. Conversely, Nongfu's earnings have been revised up by **0.2%-1.7%** for the same period [1][4]. Competitive Landscape - **FMD Competition**: The competition from FMD brands is intensifying, particularly in **3Q**. The impact on RTD beverages is more pronounced than previously expected, with a projected **3%** volume hit to bottled beverages for the full year **2025** [1][6]. - **Promotional Pressure**: Increased promotions have led to weakened pricing for RTD drinks, with a narrowing price gap between RTD and mass-market FMD [1][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: Historical brand disputes in the beverage industry have shown long-lasting negative impacts on sales and market share dynamics, providing opportunities for competitors to gain market share [1][7][13]. Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth Expectations**: Expected year-over-year earnings growth for **Nongfu/Eastroc/Tingyi/UPC** in **2H25** is **29%/35%/7%/17%** respectively, while **CR Beverage** is projected to see a **49%** earnings decline [1][4]. - **Cost Trends**: Anticipated **3%-6%** unit cost deflation in **2025** is expected to lead to **2.0-3.3ppt** gross profit margin (GPM) expansion. However, cost benefits are moderating, particularly in **PET/sugar** [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - **Wahaha Brand Dynamics**: The potential launch of a new brand "Wa Xiao Zong" by Hongsheng Group in **2026** could shift market dynamics in the bottled water segment, particularly affecting Wahaha's market share [1][16][17]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report includes scenario analyses predicting potential market share movements for **Nongfu** and **CR Beverage** based on the dynamics surrounding the Wahaha brand dispute [1][20][21]. Conclusion - The China Beverages industry is facing heightened competition and changing market dynamics, particularly from FMD brands. Companies like Eastroc and Nongfu are positioned to capitalize on these changes, while others like UPC and Tingyi may face challenges. The financial outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with adjustments made to earnings forecasts reflecting the competitive landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Consumer** sector, particularly the implications of raw material price movements on relevant Hong Kong and China consumer stocks [1][7]. Key Raw Material Price Trends - **Palm Oil**: Prices have increased, with a **3.6% MoM** rise in July 2025 and a **17% YTD** increase [24]. - **Sugar**: Prices have stabilized, showing a **0.2% MoM** decrease in July 2025 and a **6% YTD** decline [20]. - **PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate)**: Prices increased by **1.2% MoM** in July 2025 but are down **9% YTD** [22]. - **Raw Milk**: Prices decreased to **Rmb3.03/kg**, down **0.2% MoM** and **8% YTD** [21]. - **Molasses**: Prices have dropped by approximately **20% YTD**, benefiting companies like Angel Yeast [3]. Company-Specific Insights - **Yili (600887.SS)**: Raw milk prices have declined steadily YTD, but are expected to stabilize towards the end of the year due to balanced supply-demand dynamics. This is anticipated to benefit net profit margins (NPM) as inventory provisions decrease in 2025 [2]. - **Angel Yeast (600298.SS)**: The decline in molasses prices is expected to provide an earnings upside if the average selling price (ASP) can be maintained [3]. - **Tingyi (0322.HK) and Uni-President China (0220.HK)**: Lower PET and sugar prices are expected to benefit beverage segment margins, but rising palm oil prices may negatively impact margins in the second half of 2025 [4]. - **Want Want (0151.HK)**: Increasing milk powder prices are likely to pressure margins, with plans to offset costs through raw milk substitution and efficiency improvements [5]. - **Beer Companies**: Companies in this sector are benefiting from lower barley costs, although the tailwinds from aluminum prices are diminishing [5]. - **Hengan (1044.HK)**: Pulp prices have increased since October 2024, which may pressure the tissue business [6]. Market Dynamics - Competitive dynamics in the beverage industry will be crucial for margin trends in the second half of 2025, particularly for Tingyi, where price hike benefits are expected to diminish [4]. - The overall sentiment in the China consumer sector remains in-line, with various companies facing different pressures and opportunities based on raw material price fluctuations [7]. Additional Insights - The average whole milk auction price was reported at **US$4,012 per MT** on August 6, 2025, reflecting an **8.3% MoM** decrease [19]. - The conference highlights the importance of monitoring raw material prices as they directly impact the profitability and operational strategies of consumer goods companies in China [1][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on raw material price trends and their implications for specific companies within the China consumer sector.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Eastroc, Tingyi, CR Beverage, and Nongfu, with a preference for the beverage sector within staples due to growth potential and earnings visibility [9]. Core Insights - The beverage sector in China has shown a year-to-date rally of 19%, outperforming the MSCI China staples index, which increased by 8% [1]. - Despite rising competition, the sector is expected to sustain long-term volume growth and profit visibility into 2025, driven by a solid product cycle and cost benefits [9]. - Key debates in the beverage space include the impact of freshly made drinks (FMD) due to intensified food delivery subsidies, the ongoing product cycle, and margin resilience amid competition [1][2][8]. Summary by Sections Impact of Freshly Made Drinks (FMD) - FMD has seen a volume boost from delivery subsidies, with a potential short-term impact on ready-to-drink (RTD) soft drinks due to cannibalization [2]. - The analysis suggests a limited overall impact on the beverage industry, primarily affecting nearby soft drink points of sale (POS) [2]. - A scenario analysis indicates a potential low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage impact on daily volume sold by RTD soft drinks, assuming a 50% cannibalization rate [19]. Product Cycle Dynamics - The product cycle remains a critical driver, with sugar-free drinks, new flavors, and sports/energy drinks gaining traction [3][39]. - New product launches, such as Eastroc's Ice Tea and UPC's sugar-free tea, are expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2025 [7][41]. - The focus on health and functional benefits continues to shape consumer preferences, leading to a rise in innovative beverage offerings [39][40]. Margin Resilience and Cost Benefits - The report highlights manageable impacts from competition risks, with cost benefits expected to continue into the second half of 2025 [8]. - Unit cost deflation is revised to 2.3% to 6.3% for the beverage segments, which is anticipated to offset potential declines in average selling prices (ASP) [8][64]. - Companies are adjusting promotional strategies and scaling down promotions for classic SKUs while benefiting from ASP hikes on larger pack beverages [64].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for Beverage, followed by Pet Foods, Beer, and Dairy, with specific stock ideas highlighted for Eastroc, Tingyi/CR beverage, and Tsingtao-H [9][10]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a bumpy recovery in demand, particularly in the spirits, beer, and dairy sectors, with recent policy changes impacting consumption sentiment [1][3]. - Emerging channel shifts, such as instant shopping and discounter channels, are gaining traction, although their overall contribution to the staples universe remains small [1][8]. - Profitability resilience is supported by cost deflation and agile investment strategies, with companies focusing on margin visibility amid muted demand trends [1][9]. Demand Recovery - The demand recovery in Q2 has been lackluster, with notable declines in spirits and dairy products, while beer performance varies across brands [2][11]. - Retail performance has been conservative, with spirits and dairy showing year-over-year declines, particularly in the upper mid-end segments [2][11]. - The beverage sector shows solid volume momentum, although mixed performance is noted across brands [2][11]. Policy Impact - Recent policy tightening on alcohol consumption has created headwinds for spirits and beer companies, particularly affecting high-end catering and on-trade consumption [3][6][34]. - The government has implemented regulations prohibiting the serving of alcoholic drinks during working meals, impacting consumption sentiment during peak seasons [3][6][34]. Emerging Trends - There is a notable shift towards discounter channels and instant shopping platforms, with companies customizing products to meet rising demand [8][10]. - The pet food and beverage categories are experiencing positive product cycles, contributing to growth despite overall market challenges [7][41]. Pricing and Cost Trends - Pricing pressures persist across various sectors, with dairy and beverages introducing more value-for-money products in response to declining raw milk prices [12][36]. - Cost benefits from declining commodity prices are expected to support margin resilience across multiple sectors, including beer and dairy [7][12]. Company Performance - Companies like Yili and Mengniu are facing weak demand trends in UHT liquid milk, while fresh milk and chilled yogurt categories are performing better [38]. - CR Beer and Chongqing Brewery are focusing on in-home consumption and premiumization strategies to counteract weak on-trade demand [35][40]. - The pet food sector remains strong, with companies like China Pet expecting significant year-over-year growth driven by new product launches [41].