Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence is not a bubble, and AI-related order growth in 2026 will exceed that of the previous year according to Simon Lin, chairman of Wistron [1] Company Insights - Wistron, a Taiwanese electronics manufacturer, is optimistic about the growth of AI-related orders in the coming years [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **AI-linked imports** and their implications for the **US economy** and **investment landscape**. - AI-linked imports now represent approximately **17%** of total US imports, a significant increase from **6%** two years ago, with an annualized rate of about **$550 billion** as of Q4 2025 [7][11][15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Growth**: AI spending is expected to contribute approximately **3 percentage points (pp)** to nonresidential fixed investment by **2027** [7][48]. - **Import Dynamics**: The increase in AI-linked imports is attributed to the need for advanced hardware, including GPUs, servers, and other IT equipment, which are primarily sourced from Taiwan and Mexico [17][23][24]. - **Economic Impact**: The contribution of AI-related spending to GDP growth is nuanced; while it directly contributes to growth, the offset from imports limits its overall impact on GDP [41][48]. - **Productivity Gains**: AI investment is projected to add between **0.41% to 0.43%** to real GDP growth in **2026-2027**, with only about **10%** of firms currently utilizing AI technology regularly, indicating significant room for growth [49][50]. Geographical Concentration of AI Imports - **Taiwan** is the largest direct source of AI-linked imports, accounting for about **40%** of the total, primarily due to its leadership in chip fabrication [17][24]. - **Mexico** has emerged as a significant assembly hub, with **25%** of AI-linked imports, reflecting a shift in the supply chain dynamics [17][24]. - **ASEAN countries** collectively account for another **25%** of AI-linked imports, with Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand playing key roles [17]. Challenges and Considerations - The complexity of tracking AI-related capital expenditure (capex) is highlighted, as much of the investment is reflected in imports rather than domestic production [51][53]. - The **tariff environment** is favorable for AI-related imports, with low average applied rates, which has facilitated uninterrupted growth in import volumes [28]. - The **memory supply chain** is identified as a critical bottleneck for AI performance, with significant implications for future investment and productivity [58][61]. Future Outlook - The call emphasizes the expectation of continued acceleration in AI capabilities and adoption, necessitating further investment in data and systems integration [56]. - The **US policy agenda** is anticipated to support domestic manufacturing and supply chain resilience, which could influence future investment dynamics [67]. - Key debates for 2026 will revolve around the ROI of AI technology, productivity impacts, and the competitive landscape between US and Chinese AI solution providers [64]. Additional Insights - The **shift in supply chains** away from China has been ongoing since 2018, with increasing reliance on other Asian economies for technology products [33]. - The **memory market** is expected to experience a significant upcycle, driven by AI and hyperscale data center growth, with major players like **Samsung Electronics** and **SK hynix** positioned favorably [60][61]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, focusing on the implications of AI-linked imports for the US economy and investment landscape.

Summary of Greater China Technology Hardware Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, specifically addressing the impact of input cost hikes on profit outlook for 2026 [4][8]. Core Insights - **Opportunities in AI and Server Upgrades**: There are significant opportunities in AI GPU and ASIC server/rack design upgrades, particularly with the upcoming Vera Rubin platform and Kyber architecture [8][8]. - **AI ASIC Server Expansion**: The magnitude of AI ASIC server upgrades and volume expansion is primarily centered around TPU and Trainium platforms [8][8]. - **Share Price Upside Potential**: Analysts see potential for share price upside in the near term due to various factors including AI server power solutions and capacity expansion across the tech hardware supply chain [8][8]. - **Risks Identified**: - Consumer electronics demand, particularly for smartphones and PCs, is being negatively impacted by rising memory costs [8][8]. - Anticipated lower business momentum in the second half of 2026 due to pull-forward builds in the first half [8][8]. - Raw material price hikes (copper, nickel) and supply tightness are expected to create margin headwinds [8][8]. - Supply shortages may delay shipment pace, affecting overall market performance [8][8]. Key Stock Ideas - **AI Server Hardware**: Recommended stocks include Wistron, FII/Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Delta Electronics, AVC, BizLink, King Slide, Accton, Chenbro, Gold Circuit, Innolight, FIT, and Fositek [8][8]. - **Edge AI Companies**: Notable mentions include Xiaomi, Luxshare, and Lenovo [8][8]. Valuation Comparison - A detailed valuation comparison of various companies within the Greater China Technology Hardware sector was provided, including metrics such as market cap, EPS estimates, P/E ratios, and target prices [10][10]. - Companies highlighted include Lite-On Tech, Delta, Hon Hai, Foxconn Tech, and others, with specific price targets and ratings [10][10]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of considering Morgan Stanley Research as one of several factors in investment decision-making, acknowledging potential conflicts of interest [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Greater China Technology Hardware industry.

Wistron, a leading AI server assembler, reported its FY25 financial results. Gross margin (GM) for FY25 and 4Q25 came in at 6.1% and 5.6%, respectively, both below street consensus of 6.5% and 6.8%.1. These results validate my earlier view on the structural impact of AI server design trends on assembler profitability. GM was also pressured by the product transition (GB200 NVL72 → GB300 NVL72).2. 2026 assembly GM positives to watch: 1) ~200% YoY shipment growth for the GB NVL72 series in 1H26, where scale sh ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus on the Asia technology (hardware) sector, particularly the AI supply chain, as a priority investment area for 1H26 due to its significant influence on earnings growth amid concerns over smartphone/PC demand and auto production recovery [2][12] Core Themes and Stock Recommendations 1. **AI Supply Chain Investment**: - Emphasis on investing in the AI supply chain, which is expected to drive earnings growth despite potential slowdowns in other sectors [2][12] - Anticipation of clearer benefits from AI for earnings in 2026, with no signs of slowdown heading into 2027 [12] 2. **Under-the-Radar AI Themes**: - Five notable themes identified: 1. **Power Consumption**: Opportunities in power supply, power rack products, capacitors, and power semiconductors. Companies to watch include Delta Electronics, Panasonic HD, Murata Mfg., Taiyo Yuden, and Renesas Electronics [6][25] 2. **Data Transmission**: Advancements in large-scale data transmission technologies, with companies like Fujikura and Mitsubishi Electric highlighted [6][25] 3. **Niche Components**: Price stabilization and increases in demand for components like MLCCs and substrates, with key players including Murata Mfg. and SEMCO [6][25] 4. **Physical AI Integration**: Companies like Hitachi and Mitsubishi Electric are leading in embedding AI into industrial applications [6][27] 5. **Software/Services Disruption**: Generative AI's potential to improve productivity in Japan's software industry, with Fujitsu and NEC as key players [6][27] 3. **High-Profile Sub-Sectors**: - Continued growth in foundry, memory, semiconductor production equipment, AI servers, and edge AI, with recommended stocks including TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Hon Hai [30][31] Market Dynamics and Risks - **Top-Down Risks**: - Concerns regarding valuations, implementation risks, over-investment, monetization challenges, and funding sources, particularly with emerging players in the market [13] - **Bottom-Up Perspective**: - Fundamentals differ from the IT bubble of 2000, with a larger scale and longer timeline for AI infrastructure development, and sound supply chain management in Asian hardware [14][16] Technological Advancements - **Power Consumption Trends**: - Significant rise in power consumption for AI servers, with expectations for voltage increases to 800V and beyond, creating business opportunities for power-related products [33][38] - **Data Transmission Innovations**: - Transition to higher communication speeds (800-1.6Tbps) and co-packaged optics (CPO) expected to enhance industry value [58][59] Conclusion - The Asia technology sector, particularly the AI supply chain, presents substantial investment opportunities driven by technological advancements and evolving market dynamics. Key players and themes are positioned to benefit from these trends, while investors should remain cautious of potential risks associated with rapid market changes.

Market Overview - The overseas AI chip index decreased by 1.5% this week, while MPS and TSMC increased by 2.4% and 1.3% respectively. AMD and Marvell saw declines of 9.1% and 6.9% [1][2] - The domestic AI chip index rose by 7.8% this week, with companies like Cambricon, Loongson Technology, Aojie Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, Changdian Technology, and Tongfu Microelectronics all experiencing gains of over 10%. Haiguang Information, Rockchip, and Hengxuan Technology had increases of 9.9%, 5.1%, and 3.8% respectively [1][2] Industry Data - Global electric vehicle sales are projected to reach 20.985 million units by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 22%, with expectations to rise to 24.166 million units in 2026, a 15% increase [3] - Global smartwatch shipments are expected to grow by 7% year-on-year by the end of 2025, recovering from a decline in 2024 [3] - The shipment volume of foldable smartphone panels is anticipated to achieve a 46% year-on-year growth in 2026, driven by Apple's procurement for its first foldable iPhone [3] Major Events - The Trump administration has relaxed export controls on NVIDIA H200 chips to China, with the Chinese government planning to allow certain users to import this AI chip as early as Q1 2026 [4] - Micron plans to build up to four wafer fabs in New York, potentially receiving over $25 billion in federal subsidies for the first two fabs, with the first expected to be operational by 2030 and the second by 2033 [4] - After 2026, high-end GPU platforms such as Blackwell and Vera Rubin will be introduced, with rack-level power supply limits becoming a critical challenge for the industry [4]

Summary of Datacenter Market Insights – Overall Servers Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **datacenter market**, specifically the **server segment** within the **Asia Pacific** region, highlighting trends and insights for the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) [1][8]. Key Insights - **Total Server Shipments**: There was a **14% year-over-year (y/y)** growth in total server shipments in 3Q25, primarily driven by demand from the **cloud sector** for both **AI** and general servers [1][2]. - **Global Shipments**: Global server shipments reached **4.2 million units** in 3Q25, remaining flat quarter-over-quarter (q/q) but showing a **14% y/y** increase. The growth was largely attributed to cloud demand, despite some impacts from tariff pull-ins [2][11]. - **AI Server Demand**: AI servers continue to be a strong growth area, with expectations for robust demand throughout 2026. The report notes that AI server yields are improving as original design manufacturers (ODMs) and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) enhance testing capacities [3][5][15]. Vendor Performance - **Dell**: Experienced a **1% decline** in total server shipments q/q, but its average selling price (ASP) increased by **11%** [3]. - **Lenovo**: Reported a **14% increase** in total server shipments, attributed to strong performance from Microsoft's general servers, although its ASP declined by **17%** [3]. - **Super Micro**: Saw a **20% decline** in total server shipments q/q, but its ASP increased by **9%** [3]. - **Aggregate ODM Shipments**: Totaled **1,827k units**, down **4% q/q** but up **37% y/y**. The market share for ODMs decreased by **1.8 percentage points** to **43.5%** [4][15]. Segment Performance - **High-End Servers**: Shipments grew **384% y/y** and **3% q/q** in 3Q25, indicating strong demand for AI servers [12]. - **Mid-Range Servers**: Increased by **32% y/y** and **6% q/q** [12]. - **Entry-Level Servers**: Grew by **10% y/y** but saw a **1% decline** q/q [12]. Regional Insights - The **US** market outperformed others with a **18% y/y** increase in shipments, followed by **APxJ** at **17%**. Other regions like **Western Europe**, **Japan**, and **Rest of World (RoW)** experienced declines [11]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in AI server shipments through 2026, with general compute servers expected to grow in the **5-10% range** [15]. - **Preferred Picks**: The report highlights several companies as preferred investment picks, including **Wistron**, **Hon Hai**, **FII**, **Wiwynn**, and **Quanta** [6]. Additional Notes - The report emphasizes the ongoing transition in server technology, particularly the shift from traditional GPU servers to more advanced rack-scale systems [3]. - The ASP for ODM direct servers increased by **7% q/q** to approximately **US$36.5k**, reflecting a higher contribution from AI servers [14]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the datacenter market report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations within the server segment.

Summary of Global Server and AI Server Market Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global server market, particularly AI training servers, AI inferencing servers, general servers, and high-performance computing (HPC) servers. It also discusses the capital expenditure (capex) trends of leading cloud service providers (CSPs) in the US and China. Key Insights Market Estimates and Growth Projections - The total addressable market (TAM) for global servers is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of **US$433 billion**, **US$606 billion**, and **US$764 billion** for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of **71%**, **40%**, and **26%** [18][27]. - AI server shipments are expected to increase to **2,605k units** by 2027, with a notable rise in high-power AI servers, which are projected to grow by **56%**, **67%**, and **34%** YoY from 2025 to 2027 [14][12]. AI Server Segment Insights - The report anticipates a total of **19k**, **55k**, and **80k** full rack AI servers to be shipped in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a TAM size of **US$55 billion**, **US$165 billion**, and **US$255 billion** for the same years [12][9]. - ASIC adoption in AI chips is expected to rise, accounting for **38%**, **40%**, and **50%** of AI chips in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, up from previous estimates [1][3]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Leading US CSPs are forecasted to increase their capex budgets by **78%**, **37%**, and **15%** YoY from 2025 to 2027, an increase from previous estimates of **67%**, **23%**, and **15%** [10][27]. - Chinese CSPs are also expected to grow their capex by **62%**, **17%**, and **9%** YoY during the same period, up from **55%**, **8%**, and **6%** [30][31]. AI Chip Demand - The demand for AI chips is projected to reach **11 million**, **16 million**, and **21 million** units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, driven by the increasing volume of AI servers [1][9]. - The implied number of AI chips for training and inferencing is expected to be **20,838k units** by 2027, with a mix of **50%** GPU and **50%** ASIC chips [22][23]. Additional Insights - The growth in AI server shipments is supported by the increasing applications of AI technologies and the introduction of new chip platforms, including AMD's "Helios" AI server rack [1][9]. - The report highlights the importance of baseboard-based AI servers, which offer greater customization and lower costs for clients, contributing to a more positive demand outlook [12]. Conclusion - The global server market, particularly in the AI segment, is poised for substantial growth driven by increased demand for AI infrastructure and significant capital investments from leading cloud service providers. The shift towards ASIC chips and diversified chip platforms is expected to further enhance market dynamics in the coming years.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Asia Strategy Baskets** provided by Goldman Sachs, which aim to offer investors a platform for generating ideas and tracking Asian equities through various macroeconomic and thematic lenses [1][40]. Core Themes and Insights Value Cyclicals and GARP - The strategy favors **Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)** and **Value Cyclicals** due to uncertainty around market pricing of Federal Reserve cuts, resilient emerging market growth, and above-average equity valuations. GARP has delivered an **8%** and **18%** excess return over the past **3** and **6 months** respectively [4][7]. Macro Divergence - The strategic competition between the **US** and **China** is driving **US reindustrialization**, which is expected to create investment opportunities for Asian companies in the US supply chain. This theme is preferred over European and Chinese sales exposure due to growth headwinds in Europe and China's shift towards targeted stimulus [8][15]. Shareholder Yield - Policy-driven improvements in dividends, buybacks, return on equity (ROE), and governance in **China**, **Korea**, and **Japan** support the recommendation for **High Dividend Yield with Growth**. Key themes include **China Shareholder Return Portfolio**, **Korea Dividend Tax Reform**, and **Japan Buyback Momentum** [9][17]. Earnings Momentum - Dynamic earnings revision factors have consistently delivered alpha across market cycles, with **Consensus Revision Winners vs. Losers** showing a **31 percentage point** year-to-date (YTD) performance and **Strong vs. Weak Earnings Revisions** showing a **43 percentage point** YTD performance [10][23]. Regional Structural Themes AI Beneficiaries - The call highlights the importance of **AI infrastructure** and applications, recommending investments in **AIGC Hardware**, **Semiconductors**, and **Internet/Software** due to strong fundamentals and accelerated adoption [12][27]. Power Up Asia - The strategy emphasizes investments in **Nuclear** for clean baseload power, **Renewables** supported by China's policies, and core holdings in **Power & Electricity** for stable earnings and attractive valuations [12][33]. Defense Spending - Rising geopolitical risks are expected to benefit **Aerospace & Defense** and **Non-Core Defense Suppliers**, making them a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties [12][29]. Market-Specific Themes China - Targeted policies continue to support strategic areas, including the **China 15th Five-Year Plan Portfolio** and **Prominent 10** [11][35]. Korea - Governance reforms and value-up programs support dividend tax reform and treasury share cancellations [14][31]. India - The focus is on domestic themes such as self-sufficiency, mass-consumption revival, and new economy sectors, with an upgrade to **Overweight** for India in November [14][37]. Additional Insights - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and borrowing constraints when trading the discussed baskets, as past performance is not indicative of future results [41]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the investment strategies and market dynamics discussed.

GMI Cloud, a graphics processing unit-as-a-Service provider and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) Cloud Partner, announced on Nov. 17 that it will open a $500 million AI factory in Taiwan. The facility will serve as critical infrastructure for the region, allowing enterprises to train and deploy artificial intelligence models at massive scale. Once operational, the site can be expected to handle nearly 2 million tokens every second. The announcement positions GMI Cloud alongside Google, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Micro ...