| | | 21家券商2025业绩一览(2026.1.27) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商 | 净利(亿元) | 同比 | 营收(亿元) | 同比 | | 中信证券 | 300. 51 | 38. 46% | 748. 30 | 38. 46% | | 国泰海通 | 275. 33 280. 06 | 111% 115% | | | | 招商证券 | 123.00 | 18. 43% | 248. 99 | 19. 19% | | 申万宏源 | 91~101 | 74. 64% 93. 83% | | | | 东方证券 | 56. 20 | 67. 80% | | | | 光大证券 | 37. 29 | 21.92% | 108. 63 | 13. 18% | | 国投证券 | 34. 18 | 35. 10% | 103. 51 | -4. 01% | | 国联民生 | 20. 08 | 406. 00% | | | | 中金财富 | 17. 60 | 47. 40% | 83. 49 | 25. 42% | | 东北证券 | 14. 77 | 69. ...

一是估值低。横向对比看，美国大行2025年ROE为13-15%，PB为2.2-2.9倍，A股头部券商ROE为9- 10.5%，PB为1.1-1.4倍。纵向对比看，当前估值相比2021年折让30-40%。 1月27日盘后，继中信证券，另一家2万亿券商国泰海通披露业绩预增公告，2025年实现归母净利润 275.33亿元至280.06亿元，同比增速高达111%至115%。国泰海通表示，公司完成整合后，已初步实 现"1+1>2"的协同效应。中信证券此前公告，归母净利润历史首次突破300亿元，同比增长38.64%。 截至目前，已有21家券商披露了2025年业绩，净利合计约1048.24亿元，同比增58.14%。其中19家实现 同比正增长，占比达90.48%，国泰海通、国联民生等5家券商净利润增速翻倍，行业整体迎来业绩高增 期。 | | | 商2025业绩- | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商 | 净利(亿元) | 同比 | 营收(亿元) | 同比 | | 中信证券 | 300. 51 | 38. 46% | 748. 30 | 38. 46% | | 国泰海通 | 27 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to optimize risk control indicators and expand leverage limits for securities firms, which may enhance the return on equity (ROE) ceiling for quality brokerages as new policies are implemented [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 9, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index has decreased by 0.93%, with leading declines from firms such as Industrial Securities and Guosen Securities [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Securities Company Index account for 60.23% of the index, including firms like East Money Information and CITIC Securities [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The CSRC Chairman announced at the 8th Member Congress of the China Securities Industry Association plans to appropriately widen the capital space and leverage limits for brokerages, aiming to improve capital efficiency [1] - Following the revision of the risk control indicators in September 2024, this regulatory move is expected to further optimize risk control measures and open up leverage restrictions [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Zheshang Securities indicates that the brokerage sector is entering a configuration window with quantitative signals and capital resonance, suggesting a potential upward trend in the market [1] - Recent data shows significant inflows of main capital at the bottom, indicating a bullish divergence that may guide future price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is experiencing a significant rise, driven by major asset restructuring announcements from key firms, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, the securities sector opened strongly, with the broker ETF (159842) surging by 1.64% and trading volume quickly surpassing 50 million yuan [1]. - The broker ETF tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, which includes up to 50 securities companies to reflect the overall performance of the sector [1]. Group 2: Major Announcements - On November 19, China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities announced a suspension of trading due to plans for significant asset restructuring [1]. - The restructuring involves CICC issuing A-shares to the shareholders of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities in a share swap to facilitate their merger [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Dongwu Securities noted that resource integration within the industry could be a crucial method for brokers to enhance scale and comprehensive strength [1]. - Large brokers may use mergers to address weaknesses and consolidate advantages, while smaller brokers could achieve rapid growth through external mergers, realizing scale effects and business complementarity [1]. Group 4: Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - Ping An Securities reported that in the third quarter, public funds significantly increased their holdings in non-bank financials by 2.73 billion shares, contributing to the sector's rise [2]. - Conversely, foreign investors reduced their holdings in the same period by 2.04 billion shares, second only to the banking sector [2]. - The inflow of funds into securities ETFs indicates a preference for the broker sector among certain investors [2]. Group 5: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities highlighted that the current value proposition for the securities industry is supported by policies, funding, and internal transformation [2]. - Policy initiatives aimed at activating capital markets, such as deepening the registration system and optimizing trading mechanisms, are expanding business opportunities for brokers [2]. - Improved market confidence is expected to boost trading volumes and margin financing, while new capital from pensions and insurance is anticipated to enter the market, providing a solid foundation for broker performance [2]. - The industry is focusing on developing high-value-added services, particularly in wealth management and institutional business, to enhance revenue stability and profitability [2].

Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is experiencing significant growth, with major brokerage firms reporting strong earnings and a favorable market environment, indicating a strategic investment opportunity in this industry [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 29, 2025, the CSI Securities Company Pioneer Strategy Index rose by 2.47%, with notable gains from stocks such as Huazhong Securities (10% limit up), Northeast Securities (up 9.73%), and Changjiang Securities (up 4.98%) [1]. - The Securities ETF Pioneer has seen a 57.26% increase in net value over the past three years, with a maximum monthly return of 39.27% since its inception [3]. Group 2: Earnings and Valuation - For the first three quarters of 2025, 14 brokerage firms reported a combined net profit of approximately 46.726 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.42%, with three firms doubling their profits and eight firms showing growth between 50% and 100% [3]. - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Securities ETF Pioneer is 19.78, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 80.8% of the time over the past year [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend, providing a solid foundation for continued earnings growth in the brokerage sector [3]. - The current market conditions, including new account openings and the movement of household deposits, suggest that trading sentiment will remain high, further boosting brokerage business growth [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market indices opened higher collectively on October 29, with the broker ETF (159842) rising by 0.08% [1] - The broker ETF has seen a net inflow of over 140 million yuan in the last five trading days as of October 28, indicating strong capital attraction [1] - Five listed brokerages have disclosed their Q3 2025 reports, showing a trend of simultaneous growth in both operating income and net profit [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recovery in the brokerage sector is supported by an active capital market and increased trading volume, with expectations for continued high growth in Q3 2025 [1] - The current market environment indicates that new account openings have not yet reached historical highs, suggesting further potential for growth in brokerage and margin financing businesses [2] - The brokerage sector is viewed as an important strategic allocation opportunity due to the expansion of the capital market and increased trading activity, with the A-share market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1][2]

Group 1 - The core index of the securities sector, the Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437), shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Xinda Securities (601059) leading the gains at 1.00% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4000 points for the first time in ten years, marking a new high since August 19, 2015 [1] - Open Source Securities anticipates that the third-quarter performance of listed brokerages will slightly exceed previous expectations, with improvements expected in investment banking, derivatives, and public fund businesses [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Securities Leading Index as of September 30, 2025, include Dongfang Caifu (300059), CITIC Securities (600030), and Huatai Securities (601688), collectively accounting for 79.09% of the index [2]

Core Insights - Both CITIC Securities and East Money reported significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, indicating a robust performance in the brokerage sector [2][3] Group 1: Performance Highlights - CITIC Securities reported Q3 revenue of 22.775 billion yuan, a 55.71% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.440 billion yuan, up 51.54% year-on-year [3] - For the first three quarters, CITIC Securities achieved revenue of 55.815 billion yuan, a 32.70% increase, and a net profit of 23.159 billion yuan, up 37.86% [3] - East Money's Q3 revenue reached 4.733 billion yuan, a 100.65% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.530 billion yuan, up 77.74% [3] - For the first three quarters, East Money reported revenue of 11.589 billion yuan, a 58.67% increase, and a net profit of 9.097 billion yuan, up 50.57% [3] Group 2: Market Activity - The A-share market experienced a strong upward trend in Q3, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 50.40% [5] - Trading activity was notably high, with 35 consecutive trading days where turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and four days where it surpassed 3 trillion yuan [5] - The total turnover for the A-share market in Q3 was 13.9 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the total turnover for the first three quarters [5] - The margin trading balance increased from 1.85 trillion yuan at the beginning of Q3 to 2.39 trillion yuan by the end of the quarter, an increase of over 500 billion yuan [5] - New investor accounts surged, with over 7.5 million new accounts opened in Q3, representing nearly 40% of the total for the first three quarters [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Analysts believe the brokerage sector is entering a strategic allocation window, with a positive long-term outlook for the A-share market [6] - The low interest rate environment is driving institutional and retail funds into the equity market, providing ongoing incremental capital for brokerage businesses [6] - Key investment targets include firms benefiting from active trading and wealth management, those developing top-tier investment banking capabilities, and companies exploring new business opportunities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [6]

Core Viewpoint - The securities ETF (159841) has shown significant performance, with a recent increase in both its price and trading volume, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the sector [3][5]. Fund Performance - As of October 20, the securities ETF (159841) reached a new high in size at 10.256 billion yuan and a total of 9.165 billion shares, marking the highest since its inception [3]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past eight days, with a peak single-day inflow of 310 million yuan, totaling 1.215 billion yuan in net inflows [3]. Product Highlights - The securities ETF (159841) tracks a selection of high-quality listed brokerages, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages, combining both large asset management and investment banking leaders [3]. - The remaining 40% of the holdings include smaller brokerages, which are expected to show high performance due to their growth potential, making the ETF an efficient investment tool for both large and small brokerages [3]. Market Trends - On October 14, Dongwu Securities reported a projected net profit of 2.748 billion to 3.023 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65%, indicating strong performance across the brokerage sector [5]. - The number of active users for securities service apps reached 17.4 million in September, a year-on-year increase of 9.73%, while new A-share accounts opened in September totaled 2.9372 million, up 60.73% year-on-year [5]. Institutional Insights - According to Founder Securities, the recovery trend in the brokerage sector's fundamentals is clear, with high growth in earnings and a divergence in valuation performance, suggesting opportunities for sector allocation [6]. - Guojin Securities noted a high probability of continued earnings growth in the short term for the securities sector, with a favorable valuation ratio, as the average daily stock trading volume in Q3 was 2.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 211% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is experiencing a rebound with significant trading activity and growth in margin financing, leading to optimistic projections for the third-quarter earnings of listed brokerages, which are expected to show a year-on-year increase of 53.1% for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 13, 2025, the National Securities Leading Index (399437) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Huayin Securities (002945) leading with a 4.69% increase [1] - The Securities ETF Leader (159993) has a latest price of 1.35 yuan, with a net subscription of 128 million units today, marking four consecutive days of net inflow [1] Group 2: Earnings Projections - The trading activity and margin financing scale have significantly increased in Q3, with expectations for the year-on-year growth rate of brokerage firms' Q3 earnings to reach 58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [1] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for listed brokerages in the first three quarters is expected to grow by 53.1%, up from 50.4% in the mid-year report [1] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.47 times, which is at the 39th percentile since 2014, while the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is projected at 17 times, at the 26th percentile since 2014 [1] - The fundamentals of the brokerage sector remain strong, with valuations still at low levels and significant underweighting by institutions, indicating strategic allocation opportunities [1] Group 4: Index Composition - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Leading Index (399437) include Dongfang Caifu (300059), CITIC Securities (600030), and Huatai Securities (601688), collectively accounting for 79.09% of the index [2]