Group 1 - The core concern is the potential normalization of Japan's bond yields, which could pose a significant threat to U.S. tech stock valuations, especially if real yields rise substantially by 2025 [1][3] - BCA Research highlights that from 2019 to 2022, U.S. tech stock valuations were perfectly synchronized with U.S. real bond yields, but by the end of 2022, they began to correlate with Japanese government bonds, which are the last to have negative real yields [4][6] - The high valuations of U.S. tech stocks are not solely based on domestic liquidity but also rely on the low-cost funding environment provided by Japan [6][7] Group 2 - Current changes in Japan's domestic economy, with long-term inflation expectations nearing the 2% target, indicate that the pressure for normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will gradually increase [6] - BCA warns that if Japan's real bond yields normalize, the global liquidity environment will tighten, directly impacting tech stocks that depend on low-cost funding [7]

日本央行审议委员高田创：超长期日本国债的风险溢价上升往往会导致市场功能恶化，波动性会蔓延到 整个收益率曲线。 ...

市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Asia 市场洞察 | 市场 | 亚洲 GS Macro: Five things you need to know ⾼盛宏观：你需要了解的五件事 Five things you need to know: 你需要了解的五件事： 1/ Asia FX Vol ideas: Sell USDCNH RRs; USDKRW put EKO; USDSGD and USDINR digi puts; Sell USDTWD CS; Buy CHFJPY puts 1/ 亚洲外汇波动率策略：卖出 USDCNH ⻛险逆转；买⼊美元兑韩元看跌期权 EKO；美元兑新加坡元和美 元兑印度卢⽐数字看跌期权；卖出美元兑新台币跨式期权；买⼊瑞郎兑⽇元看跌期权 2/ What low yielder? 30yr JGBs above bunds; thoughts from our JGB trader 2/ 什么低收益？30 年期⽇本国债收益率⾼于德国国债；来⾃我们⽇本国债交易员的看法 ...

Group 1 - The auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds showed strong performance, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.51, higher than the 12-month average of 3.14, indicating reduced upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to weakened expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Following a poorly received 20-year bond auction in May that led to record high yields for ultra-long bonds, the Japanese government has adjusted its bond issuance plan to stabilize demand, maintaining the issuance volume of 10-year bonds while reducing that of 20, 30, and 40-year bonds [4] - The sentiment in the Japanese bond market appears positive as the Ministry of Finance's decision to reduce ultra-long bond issuance has been well-received, although caution remains regarding the upcoming 30-year bond auction [4][5] Group 2 - The 10-year Japanese government bond serves as a benchmark for long-term loan rates, significantly impacting mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs [4] - Despite the strong performance of the 10-year bond auction, yields on 30 and 40-year bonds have not significantly declined, reflecting market caution ahead of the 30-year bond auction [5] - The recent short-term survey indicated a significant decline in confidence within the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decisions regarding interest rates [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naoki Tamura, emphasizes the need to restore the damping function of the Japanese government bond market amid high global trade uncertainties and a transformative global economy [1] Group 1 - The current global economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainties in trade [1] - There is a recognition of a "systemic transformation" occurring in the global economy [1] - The urgency to restore the functionality of the Japanese government bond market is highlighted as a critical measure [1]

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：将继续关注日本国债市场状况，并将采取适当的债务管理措施。 ...

智通财经6月19日电，日本30年期收益率上涨0.5个基点至2.935%，40年期日债收益率上涨1个基点至 3.1%。 ...

日本央行：到2027年3月，日本央行持有的日本国债规模将从2024年6月的水平下降约16-17%。 ...

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：不会对日本国债收益率的日内变动发表评论，也不应根据其日常波动来制 定政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities suggests that if the Japanese government decides to reduce issuance, the ultra-long Japanese government bond market may continue to stabilize in the future [1] Group 1 - Nomura Securities strategist Jin Moteki believes that the Ministry of Finance may shift towards short-term borrowing starting in the third quarter, reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds while increasing the issuance of short-term bonds [1] - This expectation appears to have led to a bull flattening of the Japanese government bond yield curve today [1] - Close attention is required on the results of the Japanese government bond primary dealer meeting scheduled for June 20 [1]