美债规模突破37万亿美元的消息，正让这场风波变得更复杂。中国社科院副研究员杨子荣从三个角度解 读这一数字：现在美国联邦政府债务占GDP的比重，已经超过二战后的最高值，财政状况亮起红灯；新 冠疫情以来，这一数字涨了14万亿美元还多，扩张速度让人揪心；按美国国会预算办公室的预测，到 2050年，债务占GDP比重可能达到160%，未来增长势头丝毫没有放缓的迹象。 这笔巨额债务对美国经济的冲击正在逐渐显现。政府要还的利息越来越多，其他公共开支的空间被大大 压缩，以后经济要是再衰退，想靠财政政策稳住局面都难。国际市场对美债能不能持续还上钱的质疑声 越来越大，三大国际信用评级机构里，美国已经丢了最高评级，这和大家对美国中期财政规划、政治治 理能力的担忧直接相关。更严重的是，要是全球对美债的信心彻底没了，美元作为主要储备货币的地位 恐怕也保不住。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月12日，央视报道称特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压降息，还暗示要就美 联储总部翻修费用起诉。 ...

CNT GROUP(00701)发布公告，预期集团于截至2025年6个月期间的股东应占亏损将取得介于3600万港 元至4000万港元，而截至2024年6月30日止6个月的股东应占亏损则为1350万港元。 2025年6个月期间股东应占亏损的估计金额显著增加，主要是由于以下因素：(a)集团于中国香港及中国 内地的投资物业于2025年6个月期间的公平值亏损大幅增加，而于2024年6月30日的公平值亏损则约为 1160万港元;(b)并无于截至2024年6月30日止6个月一次性收回衍生诉讼的抗辩费用约640万港元;(c)公司 的非全资附属公司中漆集团有限公司(01932)的显著股东应占亏损金额。 尽管有上述信息，由于上述的公平值亏损乃属非现金性质，对集团的营运现金流并无影响。集团的整体 财政状况维持稳健。 ...

惠誉评级：法国各省级行政区2025年的财政状况将呈现迥异的发展趋势。 ...

荷兰国际：英国财政隐忧拖累英镑走低 金十数据7月22日讯，荷兰国际集团外汇策略师Francesco Pesole在报告中指出，英镑兑欧元近期贬值可 能反映出市场对英国财政状况的担忧，以及欧元作为储备货币的吸引力增强。周二数据显示英国6月政 府借款增至207亿英镑，大幅超出市场预期，这一财政恶化态势可能进一步加剧市场忧虑。Pesole表 示，虽然今日的数据未对英镑造成显著冲击，但确实提高了英国政府今秋出台增税措施的可能性，这将 限制英镑的上涨空间。 ...

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：财政状况不会妨碍必要的预算分配。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that the bond market faces a risk of "collapse" if the U.S. government fails to control the growing federal deficit, sparking widespread discussion and varied reactions [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Dimon's comments reflect the sentiment on Wall Street during a period of significant turmoil in the bond market, with long-term bond yields rising above 5% in late May, nearing the highest levels since 2007, indicating investor concerns over holding these securities amid increasing budget deficits [2] - Despite a successful auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds on June 12, concerns remain about the demand for long-term bonds from other countries, as rising yields are attributed to a slowing U.S. economy and persistent inflation above expectations [5] - The volatility in long-term bond yields is more pronounced compared to short-term bonds, as long-term bonds typically offer higher interest rates due to their longer repayment periods, leading to increased investor anxiety regarding U.S. Treasury securities [5] Group 2: Global Debt Concerns - The global debt level has reached alarming heights, with the International Institute of Finance (IIF) projecting a record $324 trillion in global debt by Q1 2025, driven by borrowing from countries like China, France, and Germany [6] - Rising inflation and interest rates make it increasingly difficult to sustain such high levels of borrowing, with concerns that continued high bond yields and poor fiscal management could lead to unmanageable debt repayment costs [6][7] - Moody's downgraded the last highest credit rating for the U.S. due to fears that the expanding debt and deficit could undermine the country's status as a primary destination for global capital [7] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The impact of high borrowing costs on long-term bonds issued during a period of ultra-low interest rates remains uncertain, with rising yields causing unpredictable consequences in the bond market [8] - The ongoing inflation post-pandemic and potential trade policies could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to higher bond yields, while also risking economic activity and complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [8]

Group 1 - Silver T+D trading is currently above 8840, opening at 8878 and reaching a high of 8993, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The resistance level for silver T+D is identified in the range of 8780-8800 per kilogram, with a potential test of the psychological level at 9000 if broken [3] - The support level is noted at 8150-8190 per kilogram, with a possibility of retreating to 8000 if this level is breached [3] Group 2 - The Japanese ruling coalition has agreed to include a cash distribution plan in their election promises to help families cope with ongoing inflation [2] - The plan may raise concerns about the government's already strained financial situation, especially with upcoming elections in July [2] - The Japanese Agriculture Minister announced an additional release of 200,000 tons of government rice reserves, with a proposed retail price of 1700 yen per 5 kilograms [2]

日本首相石破茂：日本的财政状况比希腊差，反对用日本国债为减税提供资金。 ...

日本首相石破茂：日本的财政状况比希腊还要糟糕。 ...