Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasizes that sales tax is a revenue source for social welfare programs such as pensions [1] Group 1 - There is a need to establish a framework for publicly discussing tax issues [1] - The pros and cons of tax reduction were not discussed during the election period [1]

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a broad recovery, with domestic equities outperforming overseas markets, particularly in the Hong Kong and ChiNext indices, as the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized above 3500 points [1][16] - The market sentiment improved due to easing tensions between China and the U.S., leading to positive expectations for negotiations and a rise in incremental capital inflows driven by enhanced profitability from mid-year earnings reports [1][16] - The overall pre-announcement profit rate for companies reporting mid-year results reached 44%, indicating structural improvements in earnings, particularly in the TMT, utilities, and transportation sectors [1][16] Economic Data Insights - In June, new social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9 trillion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 8.9% [5] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, slightly below the previous quarter's 5.4%, while industrial output in June rose by 6.8%, exceeding expectations [7][8] - Retail sales in June totaled 42.287 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in domestic demand compared to previous months [9][10] Sector Performance and Strategy - The technology sector is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and structural reforms, with the "new quality productivity" becoming a long-term focus, particularly in the context of AI advancements [2][17] - Financial sectors are likely to attract new capital due to increased long-term assessments by insurance companies, while consumer leaders are positioned for recovery amid low valuations and supportive domestic policies [2][17] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to perform better than A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by strong earnings from technology leaders and high dividend yields attracting institutional investments [18] International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets showed resilience with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, supported by strong earnings in the financial and technology sectors, despite some volatility due to speculation around Federal Reserve policies [19] - The U.S. inflation data indicated a moderate rise, with the core CPI at 2.9%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation have yet to be fully realized [11][12] - The bond market remains stable, with short-term yields outperforming long-term ones, as the market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [21]

日本政坛突发 石破茂首相职位岌岌可危 7月20日，据出口民调显示，日本执政联盟在上议院选举中可能失去多数席位，这一结果可能进一步削弱饱受压力的首相石破茂的领导地 位，并可能扰乱金融市场。 【导读】 日本执政联盟将失去参议院的多数席位，这将进一步削弱首相石破茂的领导地位， 并可能扰乱金融市场 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚简单关注一下日本刚刚发生的大事。 日本公共广播公司NHK的民调显示，在周日争夺的125个席位中，执政联盟可能仅能获得32至51席，低于维持248席上议院多数所需的50 席。《朝日新闻》估计，自民党及其执政伙伴公明党将合计赢得41席。《日经新闻》则表示，该联盟预计将失去大量席位，但未提供具体 数字。 尽管失去席位，石破 茂 表示将继续担任首相一职，他认为自民党仍有望在参众两院中保持第一大党。在周日分别接受多家电视台采访时被 问及是否会继续担任首相时， 石破茂 回应："是的。" 石破茂表示："我仍肩负多项国家任务，包括实现超越通胀的工资增长、推动国内生产总值达到一千万亿日元，以及应对日益紧张的安全环 境。尽管选票尚未完全统计，但我们似乎仍是各政党中赢得席位最多的一方。" 不过，如果执政联盟失去 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current market environment shows a significant decline across all asset classes, including both risk assets and safe-haven assets like gold, which recently dropped below $3,200 per ounce, indicating a state of confusion among market participants [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments - The U.S. Treasury market is under substantial downward pressure, with current price levels comparable to those seen on April 2, when tariffs were first introduced. This situation suggests that the warning signals for the U.S. economy remain active, necessitating further efforts to support the market through both messaging and domestic policy [2][4]. - Recent developments in U.S. trade relations, particularly with Japan and South Korea, are progressing, although specific details have not been disclosed by the U.S. or China. The speed of these negotiations appears to be relatively fast, as reported by South Korean media [3]. - The U.S. internal policy regarding tax cuts has reached the House of Representatives. If passed, this could provide some stimulus to the macro economy, which is crucial for economic recovery [3]. - Domestic economic indicators in China have shown disappointing results, particularly in April, where new credit issuance was only around 2,800 million, falling short of expectations. This indicates a lack of robust demand for credit, as much of the financing was attributed to bill financing rather than genuine credit demand [5][6]. - The data reflects a cautious approach from both consumers and businesses regarding loans, with a notable decrease in household loans for home purchases and a lack of substantial investment from enterprises [6][7]. - The recent easing of tariff pressures has created a complex situation for the domestic market, leading to uncertainty about future expectations. This environment may result in a period of volatility, with slight upward movements but no significant breakthroughs anticipated [7][8]. - Market sentiment has shown slight recovery, with trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropping to 1.15 trillion, indicating a period of struggle and indecision in the market [8]. - The technical pattern observed in gold suggests a bearish outlook, with the recent price action forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, indicating weak buying support and leading to hesitance among short-term investors [9]. Other Important Insights - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a desire for stability and gradual recovery, with the expectation that any significant upward movement will require stronger catalysts [8]. - The current state of the market is described as a "struggle period," where maintaining stability is seen as a positive outcome amidst the prevailing uncertainties [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives may not yield the optimistic outcomes that Republicans envision, particularly regarding its impact on social safety nets and the economy [1][5]. Summary by Sections Tax and Spending Changes - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals initiated during Trump's first term in 2017, including tax exemptions for certain tip and overtime income, while also lowering corporate taxes [2]. - It represents a significant shift in U.S. spending priorities, with major cuts to social security programs like Medicaid and SNAP, and increased funding for tax cuts, defense, and immigration enforcement [2]. Impact on Social Safety Nets - The bill imposes stricter eligibility requirements for Medicaid, requiring individuals aged 19-64 to work at least 80 hours per month to qualify for insurance, which could severely limit access for many low-income individuals [3]. - The reduction in Medicaid funding and support for low-income families may lead to a diminished safety net, adversely affecting those who rely on these programs for basic healthcare and food assistance [3][4]. Economic Implications - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating the federal government's financial situation [5]. - There are concerns that tax cuts may not lead to immediate investment growth, as manufacturing jobs continue to decline and hiring in retail and services remains sluggish [5]. Societal Consequences - The reduction in social safety net spending could potentially lead to increased crime rates and a decline in birth rates, with the U.S. experiencing its lowest birth rate since 1979 [6]. - The bill reflects a traditional Republican economic policy approach, but its long-term effects on the economy and society may be profound and divisive [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色及新能源周报】 美国非农打压降息预期，有色存在回调风险 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-7-7 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 | 01 | 02 | 03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属价格监测 | 铜（CU） | 锌（ZN） | | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | | 镍（NI） | 工业硅（SI） | 碳酸锂（LC） | | 不锈钢（SS) | 多晶硅（PS） | | 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | ...

预计特朗普将在4日签署该法案生效。 当地时间周四（7月3日）下午，美国国会众议院以218票赞成、214票反对通过总统特朗普力推的"大而 美法案"，预计特朗普将在美国国庆日（4日）当天签署该法案生效。 被特朗普称为"大而美法案"的内容长达887页，包括大规模减税、缩减社会福利支出，增加边境与国防 安全支出等。但是，因为法案涉及医保和社会福利等党派分歧严重的议题，两党之间和共和党内部一直 对法案的最终版本做出多项改动。 在当天的投票中，所有民主党众议员和两名共和党众议员投下反对票。 至此，这场持续了四个多月的两党立法拉力画上句号，因为特朗普一直亲自站台推销，当天法案的通过 也被看作是截至目前，特朗普第二任期内最具里程碑意义的立法成就。 核心内容：减税、减社保 "大而美"法案的核心内容是延长2017年特朗普第一任期内实施的4.5万亿美元的税收减免。此外，该法 案还包括大约3500亿美元的巨额投资用于国家安全、驱逐非法移民，以及发展美国的"金穹"导弹防御系 统。 "我们能做的比这更好。"杰弗里斯说，他还在演讲中阅读了多封美国民众所写的关于他们依赖医疗保健 计划的信。 "我从来没有想过我会在众议院说，这是一个犯罪现场。 ...

法案核心条款引发广泛争议：一方面延续2017年减税政策，削减医疗补助及食品安全保障支出，为边境 管控行动追加预算，同时废除多项新能源补贴;另一方面要求将债务上限上调5万亿美元，迫使国会必须 在近期达成新协议以避免主权债务违约。参议院已于7月1日以微弱优势通过该法案，但众议院表决仍悬 而未决，任何条款修改都将触发参议院重新投票程序，这使特朗普设定的7月4日独立日立法目标几近泡 影。 民主党阵营则对法案展开全面抨击。众议院民主党议员吉姆·麦戈文在辩论中直斥："这不是政策，是赤 裸裸的惩罚!"无党派分析显示，法案可能导致约1000万低收入民众失去医疗保险，同时其减税条款被指 83%的收益将流向最富有的1%人群。民主党人认为，在联邦债务已达GDP 120%的危机时刻，这项法案 无异于"在着火的房子里浇汽油"。 这场风波源于共和党内部对特朗普经济蓝图的严重分歧。众议院共和党人虽在7月2日启动法案审议程 序，但投票进程因少数保守派议员反水而陷入僵局。这些财政鹰派议员与民主党人立场罕见重合，均对 法案内容提出强烈质疑。根据无党派机构国会预算办公室测算，这项集减税、削支、移民管控、能源政 策调整于一体的综合法案，将在未来十年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The statement emphasizes the contrast between significant tax cuts leading to economic prosperity and substantial tax increases resulting in economic failure, urging Republican members to take action to avoid losing voter support [1] Group 1 - The mention of "the largest tax cuts in history" suggests a focus on fiscal policy that promotes economic growth [1] - The reference to "the largest tax increases in history" indicates a warning against policies that could hinder economic performance [1] - The call to action for Republican members highlights the political implications of economic policies on voter sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the House of Representatives is preparing to vote on a tax reform bill, which is expected to be a significant step towards achieving the largest tax cuts in history and promoting substantial economic growth [1]