Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, but Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated an increased likelihood of rate hikes in the near future, similar to the situation before the last rate increase in January [2] - The Bank of Japan raised its growth forecast for the year while warning of ongoing global uncertainties, reflecting an optimistic outlook for Japan's economic recovery [2] - The upcoming wage negotiations in 2024 are seen as a critical factor for potential rate hikes, with the largest labor union aiming for a wage increase of 5% or more [3][4] Group 2 - Pressure is mounting within the Bank of Japan's nine-member board for earlier action on interest rates, with two members reiterating their recommendation to raise rates to 0.75% [3] - External influences, such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments urging the new Japanese government to allow the Bank of Japan to raise rates, are contributing to the discussion on monetary tightening [3] - Analysts suggest that the timing of any rate hike may depend significantly on the yen's performance, as a declining yen could increase import costs and overall inflation [4][6] Group 3 - Despite hawkish comments from Governor Ueda, the yen fell to a near nine-month low against the dollar, indicating market skepticism about immediate rate hikes [5] - Core consumer inflation in Tokyo rose in October, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [5] - The potential for further cost-of-living increases could conflict with the new Prime Minister's commitment to alleviate inflationary pressures on households [6]

Core Viewpoint - Capital Economics no longer expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this month due to a reassessment of market expectations following the election of Fumio Kishida as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The forecast for the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been postponed from October 2025 to January 2026, with an expected policy rate of 1.50% by the end of 2027, which is higher than current market expectations [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is cautious about raising interest rates, indicating that any policy action is unlikely to surprise the market [1] Group 2: Currency Forecasts - Capital Economics has adjusted its predictions for the Japanese yen, now expecting the USD/JPY exchange rate to close at 150 by the end of 2025, and to weaken to 140 and 135 by the end of 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The overall pace of yen appreciation has been significantly delayed compared to previous forecasts of 140, 135, and 130 [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The yen currently appears "extremely weak," suggesting that a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields is not necessary to trigger a rebound [2] - There is skepticism that a sustained rebound in the yen will occur until the Bank of Japan resumes its rate hike path next year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent election results in Japan may create a dilemma for the central bank, as increased spending could keep inflation high, while political paralysis and global trade tensions provide reasons to delay interest rate hikes [2][3] Economic Impact - Rising living costs contributed to the ruling coalition's defeat in the recent Senate elections, with inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [2] - Analysts warn that ongoing political uncertainty could weaken the yen and increase import costs, exacerbating price pressures [2][3] Central Bank Strategy - New Bank of Japan member Junko Koeda emphasized the need to monitor the "second-round effects" of rising rice costs, while other members suggest that the central bank may need to resume rate hikes as inflation risks increase [2][3] - The Bank of Japan's current strategy involves a cautious approach, with a pause in rate hikes until the economic impact of U.S. tariffs is clearer [4] Political Dynamics - Prime Minister Kishida plans to collaborate with other parties to mitigate inflation's impact on households, potentially leading to a supplementary budget larger than last year's 14 trillion yen (approximately 95 billion USD) [3] - The ruling coalition's minority status in both houses of parliament may necessitate compromises with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased spending [3] Currency and Market Reactions - Analysts express concerns that Japan's significant debt and political instability may weaken the yen, casting doubt on the central bank's view that cost-push inflation will ease later this year [3][4] - A potential decline in the yen could trigger further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as historical precedents show sensitivity to political dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese ruling coalition faces setbacks, impacting the yen's performance, with a focus on fiscal policy and US-Japan tariff negotiations [1] Group 1: Political Developments - Some investors previously bet on a larger defeat for the ruling coalition and anticipated the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba [1] - The ruling coalition losing its majority means the Liberal Democratic Party cannot independently push legislation, raising concerns about fiscal expansion [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unwinding of these positions, combined with the relief from political risk events, led to a rebound in the yen during early trading [1] - The yen is expected to fluctuate within the range of 145-150 this week, with market attention on the progress of US-Japan tariff negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuyuki Masu indicates that the yen's movement is influenced by both upward and downward factors, suggesting a complex economic environment for companies [1] Group 1: Impact on Companies - Many companies benefit from the depreciation of the yen, highlighting a potential opportunity for growth in certain sectors [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - The stance of the new governor is neither hawkish nor dovish, indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy that may affect market expectations and investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is experiencing low-level fluctuations around 98, approaching its yearly low, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting [1] - Market anticipates the Fed will maintain interest rates, but the dot plot and Powell's comments will be crucial indicators for future monetary policy [1] - Recent weak economic data from the US has increased expectations for two rate cuts this year, diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [1] Group 2 - The euro has seen limited gains despite a better-than-expected German ZEW economic sentiment index, with the euro/USD rising due to declining US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) have slightly decreased, with the deposit facility rate projected at 1.78% for December [3] - The ECB reported an increase in overnight loan facility usage to €9 million, while overnight deposit facility usage rose to €2,711.169 billion, indicating ample market liquidity [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.5% and announced a slower pace of bond purchase reduction, reflecting caution regarding market liquidity and economic outlook [7] - The Bank of Japan's governor highlighted uncertainties from US trade policies that could impact corporate decisions and economic conditions [7] Group 4 - The British pound's net long positions surged by 50% to 51,634, the highest in seven months, amid expectations of a potential dovish signal from the Bank of England [6] - If UK inflation data falls below expectations, the likelihood of the Bank of England maintaining rates while signaling potential cuts may increase [6] Group 5 - New Zealand's economy is projected to grow by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, exceeding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecast, though this prediction carries significant uncertainty [7] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision on interest rates in July will depend on upcoming economic data [7]