【12月18日普来仕预计日本央行2026年或加息两次】普来仕多元收益债券策略联席基金经理称，市场已 调整日本央行加息时间表预期，从2026年1月提前至2025年12月，且预测2026年加息一次。 普来仕则预 期日本央行加息步伐更激进，2026年可能加息两次，因日本实质利率处负值区间。 市场渐少关注美日 息差相关性，普来仕认为套息回报减少会降低做空日元吸引力，日元短期走势看日本央行会议结果。虽 市场预期央行前瞻指引不鹰派或令日元短期承压，但认为弱势是暂时的。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.18 13:33:15 脚 普来仕:市场调日本央行加息预期, 2026年或加息两次 【12月18日普来仕预计日本央行2026年或加息两 次】 普来仕多元收益债券策略联席基金经理称,市 场已调整日本央行加息时间表预期,从2026年1月提 前至2025年12月,且预测2026年加息一次。普来仕 则预期日本央行加息步伐更激进,2026年可能加息 两次,因日本实质利率处负值区间。市场渐少关注 美日息差相关性,普来仕认为套息回报减少会降低 做空日元吸引力,日元短期走势看日本央行会议结 果。 ...

市场目光聚焦于下周一日本央行行长植田和男的讲话。 追风交易台消息，11月29日野村证券研究团队在最新的周报中明确指出，日本央行12月加息概率已从上 周的不足20%大幅回升至超过50%。 研报认为，这一预期转变的背后，是日本央行官员对维持超低实际利率所带来副作用的深切担忧。 分析指出，对投资者而言，下周一(12月1日)日央行行长植田和男在名古屋的讲话将成为决定性时刻， 市场将从中寻找关于春季工资谈判前景和基础通胀走势的最新评估。 研报强调，美元兑日元本周在156.50水平附近盘整，但随着12月美联储降息预期升温，日元走势可能出 现重大转折。 市场风向突变：12月加息预期飙升至50%以上 本周美元兑日元交易相对平静，围绕156.50水平窄幅波动，与上周试图突破158形成鲜明对比。但在平 静表面下，市场对日本央行12月加息的定价却在悄然剧变。 推动市场预期转向的三大关键因素包括: 日央行官员集体转鹰。继上周中间派委员小枝和增田倾向于近期加息后，长期被视为鸽派的政策委员野 口本周也表达了对延迟政策正常化副作用的担忧。 媒体报道密集释放信号。时事通讯社报道称持续的日元疲软将支持日央行加息，因其可能影响日本基础 通胀。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, but Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated an increased likelihood of rate hikes in the near future, similar to the situation before the last rate increase in January [2] - The Bank of Japan raised its growth forecast for the year while warning of ongoing global uncertainties, reflecting an optimistic outlook for Japan's economic recovery [2] - The upcoming wage negotiations in 2024 are seen as a critical factor for potential rate hikes, with the largest labor union aiming for a wage increase of 5% or more [3][4] Group 2 - Pressure is mounting within the Bank of Japan's nine-member board for earlier action on interest rates, with two members reiterating their recommendation to raise rates to 0.75% [3] - External influences, such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments urging the new Japanese government to allow the Bank of Japan to raise rates, are contributing to the discussion on monetary tightening [3] - Analysts suggest that the timing of any rate hike may depend significantly on the yen's performance, as a declining yen could increase import costs and overall inflation [4][6] Group 3 - Despite hawkish comments from Governor Ueda, the yen fell to a near nine-month low against the dollar, indicating market skepticism about immediate rate hikes [5] - Core consumer inflation in Tokyo rose in October, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [5] - The potential for further cost-of-living increases could conflict with the new Prime Minister's commitment to alleviate inflationary pressures on households [6]

Core Viewpoint - Capital Economics no longer expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this month due to a reassessment of market expectations following the election of Fumio Kishida as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The forecast for the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been postponed from October 2025 to January 2026, with an expected policy rate of 1.50% by the end of 2027, which is higher than current market expectations [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is cautious about raising interest rates, indicating that any policy action is unlikely to surprise the market [1] Group 2: Currency Forecasts - Capital Economics has adjusted its predictions for the Japanese yen, now expecting the USD/JPY exchange rate to close at 150 by the end of 2025, and to weaken to 140 and 135 by the end of 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The overall pace of yen appreciation has been significantly delayed compared to previous forecasts of 140, 135, and 130 [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The yen currently appears "extremely weak," suggesting that a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields is not necessary to trigger a rebound [2] - There is skepticism that a sustained rebound in the yen will occur until the Bank of Japan resumes its rate hike path next year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent election results in Japan may create a dilemma for the central bank, as increased spending could keep inflation high, while political paralysis and global trade tensions provide reasons to delay interest rate hikes [2][3] Economic Impact - Rising living costs contributed to the ruling coalition's defeat in the recent Senate elections, with inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years [2] - Analysts warn that ongoing political uncertainty could weaken the yen and increase import costs, exacerbating price pressures [2][3] Central Bank Strategy - New Bank of Japan member Junko Koeda emphasized the need to monitor the "second-round effects" of rising rice costs, while other members suggest that the central bank may need to resume rate hikes as inflation risks increase [2][3] - The Bank of Japan's current strategy involves a cautious approach, with a pause in rate hikes until the economic impact of U.S. tariffs is clearer [4] Political Dynamics - Prime Minister Kishida plans to collaborate with other parties to mitigate inflation's impact on households, potentially leading to a supplementary budget larger than last year's 14 trillion yen (approximately 95 billion USD) [3] - The ruling coalition's minority status in both houses of parliament may necessitate compromises with opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased spending [3] Currency and Market Reactions - Analysts express concerns that Japan's significant debt and political instability may weaken the yen, casting doubt on the central bank's view that cost-push inflation will ease later this year [3][4] - A potential decline in the yen could trigger further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as historical precedents show sensitivity to political dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese ruling coalition faces setbacks, impacting the yen's performance, with a focus on fiscal policy and US-Japan tariff negotiations [1] Group 1: Political Developments - Some investors previously bet on a larger defeat for the ruling coalition and anticipated the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba [1] - The ruling coalition losing its majority means the Liberal Democratic Party cannot independently push legislation, raising concerns about fiscal expansion [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unwinding of these positions, combined with the relief from political risk events, led to a rebound in the yen during early trading [1] - The yen is expected to fluctuate within the range of 145-150 this week, with market attention on the progress of US-Japan tariff negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuyuki Masu indicates that the yen's movement is influenced by both upward and downward factors, suggesting a complex economic environment for companies [1] Group 1: Impact on Companies - Many companies benefit from the depreciation of the yen, highlighting a potential opportunity for growth in certain sectors [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - The stance of the new governor is neither hawkish nor dovish, indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy that may affect market expectations and investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is experiencing low-level fluctuations around 98, approaching its yearly low, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting [1] - Market anticipates the Fed will maintain interest rates, but the dot plot and Powell's comments will be crucial indicators for future monetary policy [1] - Recent weak economic data from the US has increased expectations for two rate cuts this year, diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [1] Group 2 - The euro has seen limited gains despite a better-than-expected German ZEW economic sentiment index, with the euro/USD rising due to declining US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) have slightly decreased, with the deposit facility rate projected at 1.78% for December [3] - The ECB reported an increase in overnight loan facility usage to €9 million, while overnight deposit facility usage rose to €2,711.169 billion, indicating ample market liquidity [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.5% and announced a slower pace of bond purchase reduction, reflecting caution regarding market liquidity and economic outlook [7] - The Bank of Japan's governor highlighted uncertainties from US trade policies that could impact corporate decisions and economic conditions [7] Group 4 - The British pound's net long positions surged by 50% to 51,634, the highest in seven months, amid expectations of a potential dovish signal from the Bank of England [6] - If UK inflation data falls below expectations, the likelihood of the Bank of England maintaining rates while signaling potential cuts may increase [6] Group 5 - New Zealand's economy is projected to grow by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, exceeding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecast, though this prediction carries significant uncertainty [7] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision on interest rates in July will depend on upcoming economic data [7]