新华财经北京10月10日电凯投宏观（Capital Economics）亚太市场主管Thomas Mathews表示，该机构已 不再预期日本央行将在本月加息。这一判断源于自民党总裁高市早苗当选后市场对其政策立场的重新评 估，尽管高市及其顾问近期发表过一些鸽派言论，但Mathews认为其胜选不太可能显著改变日本整体的 货币政策路径。 在汇率方面，凯投宏观调整了对日元走势的预测。该机构目前预计，美元兑日元将在2025年底收于 150，随后在2026年底和2027年底分别走弱至140和135。相较此前预测的140、135和130，整体日元反弹 节奏明显延后。 Mathews指出，日本央行行长植田和男对加息持明显谨慎态度，政策行动"不太可能令市场感到意外"。 他强调："鉴于高市的胜选及其引发的市场反应，我们此前预期的10月加息，现在看起来可能性已大大 降低。" 基于此，凯投宏观将日本央行下一次加息时点的预测从2025年10月推迟至2026年1月，并预计到2027年 底政策利率将升至1.50%，这一水平高于当前市场普遍预期。 Mathews解释称，日元当前"看起来极度疲软"，因此并不需要日本国债收益率大幅上升即可触发反 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 日本的选举结果可能会使该国央行陷入两难困境，因为大规模支出的前景可能会使通胀保持高位，而潜 在的长期政治瘫痪和全球贸易战又为暂缓加息提供了令人信服的理由。 一些分析师表示，持续的政治不确定性也可能削弱日元并推高进口成本，从而加剧物价压力，这与日本 央行在政治风暴平息前保持观望的当前策略相冲突。 虽然削减消费税会给日本日益恶化的财政留下一个巨大窟窿，但这样做需要通过议会立法且耗费时间。 更有可能的是，日本将在秋季编制一份追加预算，为发放补贴和减税提供资金。分析师表示，鉴于反对 党要求采取更大胆措施的呼声日益高涨，其规模可能超过了去年的14万亿日元（950亿美元）方案。 询公司欧亚集团的董事David Boling说，"即便在投票前，外界就已预期今年秋季会有一份补充预算，以 帮助企业应对美国的关税。现在，反对党可能会要求一个规模更大的方案。" 日元走势是关键 不断上涨的生活成本是导致首相石破茂领导的执政联盟在上周日的参议院选举中惨败的因素之一。鉴于 通胀率已连续三年多高于日本央行2%的目标，一些央行委员会成员已警告物价压力正在增长。 日本央行新任委员小枝淳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese ruling coalition faces setbacks, impacting the yen's performance, with a focus on fiscal policy and US-Japan tariff negotiations [1] Group 1: Political Developments - Some investors previously bet on a larger defeat for the ruling coalition and anticipated the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba [1] - The ruling coalition losing its majority means the Liberal Democratic Party cannot independently push legislation, raising concerns about fiscal expansion [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unwinding of these positions, combined with the relief from political risk events, led to a rebound in the yen during early trading [1] - The yen is expected to fluctuate within the range of 145-150 this week, with market attention on the progress of US-Japan tariff negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuyuki Masu indicates that the yen's movement is influenced by both upward and downward factors, suggesting a complex economic environment for companies [1] Group 1: Impact on Companies - Many companies benefit from the depreciation of the yen, highlighting a potential opportunity for growth in certain sectors [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - The stance of the new governor is neither hawkish nor dovish, indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy that may affect market expectations and investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is experiencing low-level fluctuations around 98, approaching its yearly low, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting [1] - Market anticipates the Fed will maintain interest rates, but the dot plot and Powell's comments will be crucial indicators for future monetary policy [1] - Recent weak economic data from the US has increased expectations for two rate cuts this year, diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [1] Group 2 - The euro has seen limited gains despite a better-than-expected German ZEW economic sentiment index, with the euro/USD rising due to declining US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) have slightly decreased, with the deposit facility rate projected at 1.78% for December [3] - The ECB reported an increase in overnight loan facility usage to €9 million, while overnight deposit facility usage rose to €2,711.169 billion, indicating ample market liquidity [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.5% and announced a slower pace of bond purchase reduction, reflecting caution regarding market liquidity and economic outlook [7] - The Bank of Japan's governor highlighted uncertainties from US trade policies that could impact corporate decisions and economic conditions [7] Group 4 - The British pound's net long positions surged by 50% to 51,634, the highest in seven months, amid expectations of a potential dovish signal from the Bank of England [6] - If UK inflation data falls below expectations, the likelihood of the Bank of England maintaining rates while signaling potential cuts may increase [6] Group 5 - New Zealand's economy is projected to grow by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, exceeding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecast, though this prediction carries significant uncertainty [7] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision on interest rates in July will depend on upcoming economic data [7]